1) I thought President Obama did a pretty good job with comedian Jay Leno last night. With some pundits already pronouncing his administration a failure, he has the moxie to appear on a late night talk show. For the last eight years, presidential visits to California have been about as frequent as Bigfoot sightings. You can diss all those rumors about Treasury secretary Tim Geithner resigning anytime soon. After 59 days in the White House his bowling score is up to 129. All of his favorite picks for the Final Four basketball championships were in politically sensitive swing states (North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa). While playing basketball, he doesn't get knocked down as much while the secret service is watching, guns at hand. Obama still has the magic touch, speaking with the deliberateness of a trial lawyer, but with the folksy charm of your local barber. One thing is for sure though. Your taxes are going up, baby.

2) There have been 14 bear markets in the postwar period with an average 25% decline. This bear market is down 58%, and it still may have farther to go. No wonder everyone's risk models are blowing up. This time it really is different. Over the last 100 years the average return on stocks has been 10% a year, with 40% of that coming from dividends. Today there are dozens of prime industrial companies offering dividends rates in the mid teens. Why investors are not loading the boat with General Electric (GE) stock yielding 12% at $9/share is beyond me. Take systemic risk out of the equation, and investors will leap at these.

3) Since you do 50% of your business while driving your car, you'll love this new product from the Canadian company Ilane. A combination of a small dashboard box, Blackberry, and blue tooth earpiece permit verbal commands to open your email and have it read to you by a seductive female voice. You can respond with canned answers like 'in transit'. You can also have a short verbal response recorded and then sent as an attached MP3 file. You can have all of this for $600 and an $8 a month subscription fee. It works great as long as your various talking mobile devices don't get in an argument with each other.

4) Private equity funds bemoaning the disappearance of the once lucrative LBO market are migrating en masse to distressed debt as their new raison de etre. Yields of 25% are now common, but this is no market for dilatants. The 4.6% default rate seen at the end of 2008 is expected to soar to 13%-18% by the end of this year. Players are going to need industrial strength research departments, abundant bankruptcy law capability, and expert trading desks just to find this illiquid paper. But with a modicum of leverage their may be able to attain returns for investors that restore them to their former glory.

5) The median home price in the San Francisco Bay Area has fallen to $295,000, a ten year low. This is down 56% from the $665,000 peak seen in July, 2007 (it seems like only yesterday). Sales are up 25% YOY, fueled by a tidal wave of foreclosures and cheap FHA financing. If prices fall further this place might even become affordable. Too bad you can't live off of the sunshine here.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Stocks are not bought on Wall Street, they're sold', say seasoned brokers.

Global Market Comments for March 18, 2009
Featured Trades: (XLF), (XLY), (RLX), (HGX), (HD)

1) The quality of this rally is convincing some investors that this could be the big one. After financials (XLF), which are having an obvious dead cat bounce, the leaders of the past week have been the sectors that led into this recession, like consumer discretionaries (XLY), retailers (RLX), and home builders (HGX). The chart of Home Depot (HD) tells the whole story. These are exactly the sectors you would expect to move in a new bull market.

2) Consumer prices jumped by 0.4% in February, the largest increase since July, suggesting that we may not be plunging into a deflationary death spiral after all. Rising gasoline and clothing prices led the way. Expect contradictory economic data to increase from here.

3) Here is another mustard seed. Pfizer successfully floated a jumbo $15 billion multi tranche, multi maturity bond issue to finance its $65 billion takeover of Wyeth. The three year paper was priced at 305 pips over Treasuries, with the shorter term paper 195 basis points over three month LIBOR. These are not exactly bargain terms, but the fact that this deal got done at all is proof that life is certainly returning to the corporate lending market. Seeing investors show up tells you that some of the systemic risk is starting to ebb.

4) OPEC voted to keep quotas at their current reduced levels, spurring crude to top $50 yesterday, a two month high. At this point, helping revive near comatose importers with low prices is more important for members than squeezing out a few more dollars in revenues. The cartel has done a better job keeping cheaters in line than in the past, with Saudi Arabia doing the heavy lifting on production cuts. We are backing off a couple of bucks today because of a surprise 3.2 million barrel jump in gasoline inventories. But the enormous contango has started to shrink, suggesting that the $32 low we saw in December is looking safer by the day. Could crude's revival be another early hint at a recovery in the broader global economy?

5) I'm glad that I'm not counting on an AIG bonus check to clear the bank. CNBC has turned into the AIG channel. I can only imagine how that annual review conversation went down. 'The good news is that your bonus is $5 million. The bad news is that you will have to spend $25 million in legal fees defending it'. Thank goodness for small favors. What hath Obama wrought?

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'To be right when a great power is wrong can be a dangerous thing,' said Benjamin Franklin. He should know.

Global Market Comments for March 16, 2009
Featured Trades: (CHINA), (BAC), (C)

1) Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did a great interview with CBS 60 Minutes last night. It's nice to know that the recession 'might' end this year. He ruled out the big banks going to zero, which is great news for Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). This should support global stock markets for at least another day, and every day helps! Who knew he missed only one question on his SAT test to score a 1590 and that his mother didn't want him to go to Harvard because he didn't have the right clothes? I bet it was a question in the verbal section. It was all a nice bit of hand holding while we may be enduring the worst quarter for the economy in a century. If we don't surpass the -8.1% seen in Q1, 1981, it will certainly be in the top three worst quarters of all time. Anyone going shopping, visiting a car dealer, or waiting in long lines for unemployment benefits will tell you this. By the way, BAC is now trading like a penny stock, up nearly triple from last week's low. A BAC triple? Pinch me!

2) Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, the world's preeminent independent risk control consultant, passed through town last week to promote his latest book, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing. The book details how money managers must become cognizant of and deal with foreign laws, regulation, government turnovers, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism, and war, in order to survive in this increasingly complex and interconnected world. Globalization has ground to a screeching halt. Governments are now more important than multinationals in influencing our economic future, and a new form of 'state capitalism' is emerging. We are shifting from a unipolar to a nonpolar world. Iraq is morphing from war into a peace keeping operation, while Afghanistan is rapidly moving in the opposite direction. Geopolitical risks are rising. With crude at $46 a barrel there is no Iran premium currently in the market, and $20-$30 could price in very quickly. China and Brazil are the long term winners in the new set up, and the dollar is the big loser. The greatest risk to the US is its overdependence on borrowing from China. This is a must read book for any hedge fund manager struggling with his global risk exposure and looking for some great long term plays.

3) In one of the worst market timing efforts ever, the Financial Times reports that China dramatically increased it weighting in equities and other risk assets for its $1.8 trillion in reserves in early 2007, just before the markets crashed.?? The, unfortunately named, State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) boosted its holdings in US equities alone, from $4 billion to $100 billion, which have since dropped at least by half. It turns out the Middle Kingdom took its hard earned profits from US exports and used the money to buy, now worthless, American lottery tickets. I'm glad I'm not the guy who has to explain this decision to the country's senior leadership. At least poorly performing fund managers in the West don't face firing squads, or at least not yet.

4) The top Ten Messages Found on Bernie Madoff's answering machine, according to comedian David Letterman:

10) 'This is Barnes & Noble. I'm sorry we don't sell calendars for the year 2159.'
9) 'Hey Bernie, I've been out of the country-how are my investments doing?'
8) 'Blockbuster calling. Your copies of 'The Great Escape' and 'The Shawshank Redemption' are overdue.'
7) 'Do I have the correct number? Is this 1-800-F***-***?'
6) 'It's Ruth'?if you go out, remember to swindle some milk and eggs.'
5) 'If you're under house arrest why aren't you home?'
4) 'Sorry, I didn't mean to dial your number. I just sat on my phone.'
3) 'Hi Bernie, its A-Rod's cousin. You looking to bulk up for prison?'
2) 'It's Michael Phelps. Need something to help you relax?'
1) 'It's George W. Bush. Can I still get in?'

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'How badly can you get hurt falling out of a basement window,' said Bob Brusca of Fact and Opinion Economics about current stock prices.

Global Market Comments for March 12, 2009
Featured Trades: (TBT)

1) Forbes Magazine has published its annual list of the 400 wealthiest, and the carnage has been awesome. The net worth of the elite club has shrunk from $4.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion, with the average dropping from $3.9 billion to $3 billion. Bill Gates, worth $40 billion, jumps back up to the number one position, even though he lost $18 billion in 2008. The number of billionaires has plunged from over 1,100 to 793. Among the fallen are Citigroup's Sandy Weil, Facebook's Mark Zukerberg, and AIG's Hank Greenberg, and of course, Sir Alan Stanford.?? China managed to add five new billionaires, including Wang Chuanfu, founder of battery maker BYD, who has attracted backing from Warren Buffet for his electric car efforts.

2) The global economic collapse has finally hit China with full force, knocking down exports by 25.7%, and shrinking imports by 24% in February. The ghastly figures show how rapidly international trade is shrinking. The Middle Kingdom's trade surplus is in free fall, and it is just a matter of time before the renminbi starts to fall against the dollar. Do you suppose that anyone in the US government understands that this will lead to fewer Chinese purchases of Treasuries, just when they need to sell the most? Better double up on the TBT, the 200% short long bond ETF.

3) Looks like we are going to have to invent ourselves out of this mess. One third of US GDP is produced by companies that were created after 1980. Almost all new jobs are created in firms that are less than five years old. These figures show that innovation is the primary driver of new hiring.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

' For decades, the money shufflers, the paper shufflers, have been the captains of the universe. That is now changing. The people who produce real things will be on top. You're going to see brokers driving taxis,' said legendary investors Jim Rogers, former partner of George Soros.

Global Market Comments for March 10, 2009
Featured Trades: (GE), (ABX), (SPX), (WTIC), (OIL)

1) It only took a few dew drops of good news for the Dow to recover from its near death experience and rocket 350 points. The 'I love America trades' of long bonds and Treasuries came back with a vengeance. The 'short America trades' were last seen running down the street with their tails between their legs, with gold breaking key support at $900. News that Citigroup was profitable in 2008, and rumors of the suspension of the uptick rule and mark-to-market accounting were enough to do the trick. It also helped that every technical analyst on the planet was screaming 'Buy!'Although this may not last, even a single day of fresh air is welcome.

2) While most industries are facing the worst conditions in 70 years, the market for business journalists is booming, who investors increasingly look to for advice on how to save their last dollar. During the first two months of this year the financial network CNBC, a subsidiary of General Electric (GE), averaged 282,000 home viewers, compared to 264,000 last year and 233,000 in 2007. The financial crisis is boosting profits there, much as the Gulf War did for CNN in 1991. The network is now increasingly becoming the story itself, offering a rallying point for criticism of the Obama administration as it plays to its overwhelmingly conservative audience. Anti bailout comments by futures markets reporter Rick Santelli, who called those behind on mortgages 'losers', sparked nationwide 'tea party' rallies. The theatrical Jim Cramer accused Obama of causing 'the greatest wealth destruction of any US president,' inviting a White House counterattack. Convincing people they are sick, and then offering to sell them the medicine for a cure, has always been a great business strategy.

3) There is one canary in the coal mine that was squawking loud and clear yesterday. Chinese stockpiling, hedge fund short covering, and rebel interruption of exports from Nigeria drove crude to a two month high yesterday at $48.50, up 50% from its December low. The huge contango, where far month futures contracts traded at enormous premiums, has shrunk dramatically, taking selling pressure off of the front month contract. Perish the thought, but could this be an early indicator of an economic recovery? Today's stock market action certainly says so. Go buy that Smart car!

3) The Financial Times printed a great interview with Peter Munk, the visionary chairman of Canada based Barrick Gold (ABX), the world's largest gold producer. He says that it will only take decisions by a few central banks to move gold up to $2,000 an ounce. The feeling of insecurity is here to stay, and the appeal of gold as a hedge has broadened enormously. With a new floor of gold at $800, the profitability of gold mining companies is soaring. Gold is a win-win play because if financial distress continues, so will gold's flight to safety bid. If the economy recovers, jewelry demand will come roaring back. The world's gold supply is constrained, as miners are having to dig deeper and deeper. Send me another sack of American eagles!

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'If I had only followed CNBC's advice, I'd have a million dollars today, provided that I'd started with $100 million,' said John Stewart of the comedy program, The Daily Show.