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DougD

Business is Booming at Ruff Times

Diary

Following Howard Ruff for the last 35 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times ( http://www.rufftimes.com? ), one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets.

The great thing about the end of the world crowd is that all of their trades are going gangbusters now and we?re all still here. Talk about a win-win! He says that any investment denominated in dollars is a mistake, which is in a long term down trend, along with all paper assets. Silver (SLV) is his first choice, which will outperform gold, and eventually top $100 from the current $27. His personal target for the barbarous relic (GLD) is $2,300, but that might prove conservative.

With the Chinese building 100 nuclear power plants over the next ten years, uranium (CCJ) has great potential. Equities may never come back from their lost decade. Don?t buy ETF?s because they are just another form of paper, and may not actually own the gold or silver they claim. The government is laying the foundation for a massive inflation, which will begin soon.

Howard has long been considered card-carrying member of the lunatic fringe of the investment world, sticking with hard assets throughout their 20 year bear market during the eighties and nineties, and annually predicting the demise of the federal government. Maybe it?s a case of a broken clock being right twice a day, but in recent years I find myself agreeing with Howard more and more. Whether that means I?m now a lunatic too, only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/end.jpg 233 319 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-31 00:11:472012-08-31 00:11:47Business is Booming at Ruff Times
DougD

A Snapshot of America?s Native Indian Economy

Diary

When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit.

Europeans have long had a fascination with our Native Americans. So in preparation for my upcoming European strategy luncheon tour I thought I would get myself up to date about out earliest North American residents.

Business is booming on Indian reservations these days, or it isn?t, depending on where they live. Of the country?s 565 reservations, some 239 have moved into the casino business and the cash flow has followed. In 2010, Indian gaming reaped some $26.7 billion in revenues, or some $9,275 per indigenous native. That is a stunning 44% of America?s total casino revenues.

Some, like the Pequot tribe?s massive Foxwood operation just two hours from New York City, now the world?s largest casino, once had money raining down upon it. But the casino grew so large that it entirely occupied the diminutive Connecticut reservation allocated to it by an obscure 17th century.

During the salad days, the profits were so enormous that an annual $250,000 stipend was paid to each officially registered tribal member. A poker boom helped. No surprise that the tribe grew from 167 to 665 members during the last 30 years. Today, the operation is burdened with $2.5 billion in debt, thanks to some bad investments and an ill-timed expansion.

Casinos in more rural locations in the far west distant from population centers have fared less well. Those that contracted out for professional management from Las Vegas and Atlantic City firms, like Harrah?s, MGM, and Caesars, earn a modest living. But the reservations attempting local management on their own fall victim to inefficiencies, incompetence, corruption, over hiring of locals, and outright theft. Believe it or not, it is possible to lose money in the casino business, and some have had to shut down.

Overbuilding is another problem. It Northern New Mexico you can find several casinos within five miles of each other competing for the same customer. Most of their clients (real losers) are in fact local tribal members, the same individuals these houses are intended to help.

The 326 tribes that avoided the casino industry do so at the cost of a big hit to their standard of living. That explains why Native American median household income reaches only $35,062, compared to $50,046 for the US as a whole. Many, like the numerous Hopi, shun it because of their religion.

Without gambling there are few economic opportunities on the reservations. The parched conditions of the west limit farming. Unemployment runs as high as 80% on some reservations, such as the White Mountain Apaches. As a result, a high proportion of the country?s 2.9 million Native Americans are wards of the federal government, living on food stamps and other government handouts.

That?s not how it was supposed to be. The first modern reservation was set up for the Navajo tribe in 1851 at a baking hell hole on the Pecos River, with the intention of enforcing a primitive form of apartheid to insure their survival. Today, they are the most populous tribe, with 160,000, owning the largest reservation, at 24,000 square miles, mostly in Arizona.

Those who signed treaties early survived, which gave them status as an independent nation, but ceded all matters regarding defense to the federal government. In fact the Iroquois, Sioux, and the Chippewa separately declared war on Germany during WWII. Some even issue their own passports. Those that didn?t had to settle for much smaller reservations, or got wiped out.

In 1975, congress passed the Indian Self-Determination Act, which devolved power from the government to the tribes. Florida?s Seminole tribe won the right to open a casino in court in 1981, which was confirmed by the Supreme Court in 1987. After that, it was off to the races with Indian bingo parlors sprouting across the country.

During the 19th century Indian wars when hundreds of thousands died, the practice was to attack a wagon train, kill all the men, marry the women, and adopt the children. As a result, I am descended from three different tribes, the Delaware, Sioux, and the Cherokee, as are about a quarter of native Californians my age. So I tried to cash in on government largess by applying for tribal scholarships to go to college.

It was to no avail. Only those who can trace their lineage to a 1941Bureau of Indian Affairs census and are one eighth Native American can qualify. When whites married Indians 150 years ago, the?? common practice was to baptize them and give western names, making their origins untraceable. They were also pretty casual with marriage records in the Wild West. But we still have many of the wedding photos and know who they are.

I never did find out if that little boy got his Red Indian suit for Christmas, but I hope he did.

 

So, Should I Double Down?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/indian.jpg 229 321 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-31 00:05:122012-08-31 00:05:12A Snapshot of America?s Native Indian Economy
DougD

Testimonial

Testimonials

I wouldn?t say that I?ve made a great deal of money from using your recommendations, as I?ve got caught by bad timing on silver, SDS, TBT and EUO. I?ve also done very well out of your other recommendations. Your views on the market are invaluable, and you?ve helped a lot in learning how to manage an investment account and to hedge.

However, your latest bulletin about the Occupy Campers, and also the biofuels are very welcome ? I couldn?t agree more. It?s a cynical old World out there, and it is very refreshing to encounter a very wealthy man in capital markets who is not a cynic. I meet far too many of them in trying to nudge peoples? attitudes towards taking responsibility for their impact upon environment and society.

Best wishes,
Doug

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/over.jpg 134 170 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-31 00:02:542012-08-31 00:02:54Testimonial
DougD

August 31, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

"I mind my own business," she told the Guinness World Records. "And I don't eat junk food," Said Besse Cooper, the world?s oldest person, on her 116th birthday in Monroe, Georgia.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/old.jpg 225 399 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-31 00:01:392012-08-31 00:01:39August 31, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) August 30, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-08-30 10:27:302012-08-30 10:27:30Trade Alert - (SPY) August 30, 2012
DougD

Is ?RISK ON?/?RISK OFF? Broken?

Diary

Here?s a chart that you don?t see very often, the one for iron ore priced in U.S. dollars. I?m sure that every miner working at BHP?s pits in the Australian outback goes to sleep with a print out of this chart clutched close to his chest. You can?t blame him, as his livelihood depends on it, and it has had a definite southerly tilt for the last two years, losing some 50% from the top.

The reasons are known by all. As Chinese growth downshifts from a torrid 13% annual rate to 7% now and possibly zero next year, the demand for Australia?s largest export has been evaporating like an ice cube in the western deserts. (BHP) has already cancelled one high profile project. There is news of contract defaults with Chinese buyers. Steel plants in the Middle Kingdom are seeing actual shutdowns.

As this is the world?s second largest bilateral trade after America?s oil imports from the Middle East, it offers a valuable window on the health of the global economy. And the patient currently has a bad case of the flu which may develop into a fatal case of pneumonia.

Now contrast this chart with the one for the S&P 500 (SPX), which couldn?t be more different. It has been in an uptrend for the past four years, has doubled off its 2009 low, and is on the verge of drifting up to four-year highs on no volume.

What gives? What we are seeing here is a classic war between the fundamentals and liquidity, and liquidity is winning. You would think that with the rest of the world headed for, or already in, recession, the market would be going to hell in a hand basket. Not so. Ben Bernanke and his central banker friends around the world have orchestrated a crescendo of printing presses that have kept the hopium coming and stock prices rising.

This leads me back to my headline, is ?RISK ON?/?RISK OFF? broken? It would certainly seem so as long as the Federal Reserve is keeping the pedal to the metal. So paper assets, like stocks and bonds, are enjoying their glory days. At the same time, any hard assets, especially those most consumed by China, like copper, iron, ore, sugar, zinc, Caterpillar (CAT) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX), are being beaten like the proverbial red-headed stepchild.

Gold (GLD) is getting a free pass from this punishment, as quantitative easing and the dollar devaluation it assures brings in lots of buyers. Oil (USO) is going up for all the usual geopolitical reasons, including Iran, Syria, Libya, and Hurricane Isaac.

So what?s a trader to do? For a start, it means you have to work harder. Making money is no longer a simple flip of the ?ON?/?OFF? switch. We now have to carefully analyze each asset class, industrial sector, and individual company looking to buy the cheapest ones and sell short the expensive ones against them.

Remember, while people have been bitching about falling volatility and low index returns, Apple (AAPL), my largest position, has soared by 70%. It?s not like this one was hard to find either. If fact, I can see their headquarters from my office window right now, while my iMac, iPad, iPhone 4s, and Airbook are charging.

Of course, there is one way to duck the new, heavy workload, and that is to leave all the heavy lifting to me. Making money in tough conditions like this is something that I thrive on. For the first time, I have sent out more trade alerts than newsletters this month, and the model portfolio has been up almost every day for four months.

Remember, the answer to all questions is to buy my newsletter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-29 23:02:302012-08-29 23:02:30Is ?RISK ON?/?RISK OFF? Broken?
DougD

August 29, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day
?I?m in the probability business, not the forecasting business. Certainties offer very low returns, uncertainties, high returns,? said venture capitalist, Vinod Khosla.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/probability1_s600x600.jpg 300 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-29 23:01:182012-08-29 23:01:18August 29, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (MS) August 29, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-08-29 15:57:532012-08-29 15:57:53Trade Alert - (MS) August 29, 2012
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) August 29, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-08-29 15:55:342012-08-29 15:55:34Trade Alert - (SPY) August 29, 2012
DougD

Closing Trade Alert on the (TLT)

Diary

Buy to Cover the Short position in the (TLT) September $116-$111 put spread at $0.07 or best

Closing Trade

8-28-2012 ? 11:30 AM EST

expiration date: 9-21-2012

Portfolio weighting: 5%on a delta basis

($5,000/100/$0.07) = 25 Contracts

Eight days ago, I was dead-on correct in predicting that a risk reversal in the markets was imminent, and the Treasury bond market was ripe for at least a five point rally. Well, I lied. Instead we got a six points rally which has taken the value of our short position in the (TLT) September $116-$111 put spread from $0.37 to only $0.07, a drop of 81%.

The original 12 point collapse in the (TLT) was caused by comments made by European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, who in July, said that he would do ?whatever it takes? to save the Euro. It was one of the easiest bets of the year that Mr. Mario would not follow up his words with action, especially during August, when the entire European leadership was taking their annual six week vacation on the Isle of Sylt, the South of France, or at Bognor Regis. Reminder to newbies and beginners: making money is not always this easy.

It is a no brainer to take profits here. Yields have plummeted from a high of 1.92% down to 1.63% in a mere eight days. We are now dead in the middle of the three month trading range for the (TLT). We get to come out three days before Ben Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech which could rile the financial markets. We also get to duck the coming weekend when Mario Draghi is prone to antics of the quantitative easing variety.

By coming out here, you also free up margin to do more interesting things in gold, silver, the Japanese yen, the Russell 2000, the S&P 500, and Apple. On top of all that, we have squeezed out the bulk of the profit on this position in just eight days. It is not worth it to hang on until September 21 only for 17 more basis points. The world could end by then. The risk/reward ratio is no longer favorable. Remember: hogs get fed, pigs get slaughtered.

The better way to play this move would have been to buy outright calls or call spreads on the (TLT), which would have added a hefty 5% to our year-to-date performance. But the melt up happened so fast, it was hard to pick a good entry point.

The profit on this trade is $0.37 - $0.07 = $0.30

That adds (25 X 100 X $0.30) = $750, or 0.75% to? the notional $100,000 portfolio.

To execute this trade:

Buy to cover the September, 2012 (TLT) $116 puts at..$0.11

Sell the September, 2012 (TLT) $111 puts at????.$0.04

Net Cost to cover:???????.?.??????...$0.07

Enter this trade as a single day limit order for the entire spread, not the individual legs. If you don?t get done, work your limit up a penny at a time. Your options trading platform should allow this. That keeps you from paying a double spread.

I am happy to report that this is the 14th consecutive profitable closing trade alert. If you add the 8 unrealized profitable trades still on the books, this takes my current run to 22 money-making ideas in a row.

Well, it?s back to my workout. I want to wear my Speedo with pride next summer on the Italian Riviera. On to the next one.

If you wish to receive trade alerts like this on a real time, instantaneous basis, please subscribe to my Trade Alert Service by clicking here .

 

 

 

 

Thank you Mr. Mario

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-08-28 23:03:162012-08-28 23:03:16Closing Trade Alert on the (TLT)
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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