I strongly urge readers of this letter to log on to Amazon and buy a copy of Options for the Beginner and Beyond by W. Edward Olmstead. Options contracts offer investors a wonderful instrument for minimizing risk, while maximizing the upside, and I am going to recommend many more such strategies in the future. So, if you want to have the slightest idea of what I am talking about, get yourself some grounding in this important field by reading this book. You don?t have to be a math genius to figure this stuff out, and the risk reward benefits are great.
Olmstead, a math professor at Northwestern University, starts out with a basic Options 101 course, going into the merits of puts and calls. He catalogues the exchanges where they are listed, and the vast number of products that can be traded, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and precious metals. He goes into the mundane, but important details on the administration side of things, such as settlements. For the more technically inclined, he launches into options theory pricing, and goes into the origins and utility of the Black-Scholes equation. We learn about the arcane world of what traders call ?the Greeks?, the deltas, thetas, and vegas of individual positions. He then launches into basic option strategies, like call and put spreads, ratios, straddles, strangles, collars, and condors.
Don?t let these terms scare you off. It is really much easier than it sounds. In fact, you will be kicking yourself once you find out how easy it is. In order to buy the book at a discounted price and give yourself a genuine trading edge, just click here.
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?There?s been a lot of lost face in asset allocation over the past five years. Who would have thought that government bond yields could have gone so low?? said Michael Turner, a strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management.
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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I certainly hope you took my advice to load your portfolio with corn and gold and to dump your equities five years ago. What? You didn?t? Then you have almost certainly suffered on the performance front.
According to data compiled by my former employer, the Financial Times, corn was the top performing asset class since 2007, bringing in a stunning 146% return. Who knew that global warming would be such a winning investment strategy? It was followed by gold (GLD) (144%), US corporate debt (LQD) (44%), US Treasuries (TLT) (38%), and German bunds (BUNL) (26%). This explains why my long gold/short Morgan Stanley (MS) has been going absolutely gangbusters today.
If you ignored my advice and instead loaded the boat with equities, chances are that you are now pursuing a career at McDonalds (MCD), hoping to upgrade to Taco Bell someday. The worst performing asset classes of the past half-decade have been Greek equities (-87%), European banks (-70%), Chinese stocks (-41%), other European equities (-21%), and UK stocks (-11%). If you were in US equities, you are just about breaking even (1%).
Corn is, no doubt, getting an assist from what many are now describing as the worst draught since the dust bowl days of the Great Depression. But there is more to the story than the weather. Empowered with long term forecasts from the CIA and the Defense Department, I have been pounding the table for years that food would become the new distressed asset. These agencies have been predicting that food shortages will become a cause of future wars.
For a start, the world population is expected to increase from 7 billion to 9 billion over the next 40 years. Half of that increase will occur in countries that are net importers of food, largely in the Middle East and Africa. You can also count on the rising emerging nation middle class to increase demand for both the quantity and quality of food. Obesity among children is already starting to become a problem in China.
Managers who have been wrong footed through being overweight equities and underweight bonds will get some respite in coming years. It will be mathematically impossible for government bonds to match their recent performance unless they start charging negative interest rates. My best case scenario has them going sideways to down in the years ahead.
Not so for gold, which will continue to see steady demand from emerging market central banks and their new middle class. Five years ago, gold trading carried a death penalty in China. Today, there are shops on every street corner flogging the latest issue of one ounce Chinese Panda coins.
As for corn, the sky is the limit. If you don?t believe me, try eating a one ounce Chinese Panda.
Is Corn the New Gold?
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The decision by BHP Billiton, one of the world?s largest producers of copper, to postpone its planned $20 billion expansion of its Olympic Dam mine is sounding alarms about the near term state of the global economy. It is telling us that China is slowing faster than we thought, that demand for base metals is shriveling, and that we are anything but close to exiting out current market malaise. This is not good for risk assets anywhere.
The news comes on the heels of a company announcement that earnings would fall from $21.7 billion to $17.1 billion this year. The weakest demand from China in a decade was a major factor. So was the Fukushima nuclear disaster, which dropped prices for uranium, another product of the Olympic Dam mine. Piling on the headaches was a strong Australian dollar, which escalated capital costs. BHP CEO, Marius Kloppers, has said that there will be no new expansion of the company?s capacity approved before mid-2013.
Olympic Dam is the world?s fourth largest copper source and the largest uranium supply. The upgrade was going to involve digging a massive open pit in South Australia that would generate 750,000 tonnes of copper and 19,000 tonnes of uranium a year. Almost the entire output was slated to be shipped to the Middle Kingdom. When Chinese real estate flipped from a ?BUY? to a ?SELL? last year, the days for this expansion were numbered.
I have been following BHP for 40 years, and a number of family members have worked there over the years. So I know it well, and can tell you that their pay and benefits are great. I have used it as a de facto leading indicator and call option on the future of the world economy. When the share price delivers a prolonged multiyear downturn as it has recently done, it is a warning to be cautious and limit your risk.
Hey, I Saw That Parking Place First!
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?Right now, our politics are holding us back. It?s like being the children of permanently divorcing parents. The political environment is a real downer for a lot of people, and their holding back,? said New York Times columnist, Tom Friedman, author of the book, That Used To Be US.
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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During my recent meeting with the senior portfolio managers of the big Swiss banks, I kept hearing the same word over and over: yield, yield, yield! The search for yield by end investors has become so overwhelming that it now trumps all other considerations. So I am starting a series of major pieces on the world?s best yield plays. Those include emerging market debt, REIT?s, master limited partnerships, and junk bonds.
The trick is to enhance your yields without taking insane amounts of risk to get there. In the summer of 2007, investors were accepting vast increases in principal risk in the junk market for a mere 100 basis point increase in interest payments over Treasuries. A year later, that spread exploded to 2,500 basis points. Needless to say, the portfolio managers who made that call are now driving taxis in some of New York?s least attractive neighborhoods.
I have had great luck steering people into the Invesco PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY), which is invested primarily in the debt of Asian and Latin American government entities, and sports a generous 4.87%? yield (click here for their site). This beats the daylights out of the one basis point you could earn for cash, the 1.75% yield available on 10 year Treasuries, and still exceeded the 3.98% yield on the iShares Investment Grade Bond ETN (LQD), which buys predominantly single ?BBB?, or better, US corporates.
The big difference here is that PCY has a much rosier future of credit upgrades to look forward to than other alternatives. It turns out that many emerging markets have little or no debt, because until recently, investors thought their credit quality was too poor. No doubt a history of defaults in the region going back to 1820 is in the back of their minds.
You would think that a sovereign debt fund would be the last place to safely park your money in the middle of a debt crisis, but you?d be wrong. (PCY) has minimal holdings in the Land of Sophocles and Plato, and very little in the other European PIIGS. In fact, the crisis has accelerated the differentiation of credit qualities, separating the wheat from the chaff, and sending bonds issues by financially responsible countries to decent premiums, while punishing the bad boys with huge discounts. It seems this fund has a decent set of managers at the helm.
With US government bond issuance going through the roof, the shoe is now on the other foot. Even my cleaning lady, Cecelia, knows that US Treasury issuance is rocketing to unsustainable levels (she reads my letter to practice her English). The ratings agencies have been rattling their sabers about further downgrades of US debt on an almost daily basis, and it is just a matter of time before this, once unimaginable, event transpires again. When it does, there could be a stampede into the debt of other healthier countries, potentially sending the price of (PCY) through the roof.
Since my initial recommendation, my total return on (PCY) has been 50%, not bad for an insurance policy. Money has poured into (PCY, taking assets up nearly tenfold to $2.13 billion over the last four years. Another name to consider in this area is the iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB)
I lived through the Latin American debt crisis of the seventies. You know, the one that almost took Citibank down? Never in my wildest, Maker?s Mark fueled dreams did I think that I?d see the day when Brazilian debt ratings might surpass American ones. Who knew I?d be trading in Marilyn Monroe for Carmen Miranda?
Time to Trade Her
For Her?
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With oil (USO) getting ready to take a run at $100 a barrel once again, the first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank goodness that we have the oil companies.
You?ve got to love ExxonMobile (XOM). The world?s largest company announced an unbelievable $127.3 billion in Q2 revenues, generating a gob smacking $15.9 billion in net profits. This year, (XOM) will spend $9.3 billion on exploration and capital spending. Some of their wells easily cost $100 million each. This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and political science majors are going straight on to food stamps.
I recommend (XOM) and other oil majors as part of any long term portfolio. No matter what anyone says, the price of oil goes up, in my lifetime, from $3 a barrel up to $149. The reasons for the ascent keep growing, from the entry of China into the global trading system, to the rapid growth of the middle class in emerging nations. They?re just not making the stuff anymore, and we can?t wait around for more dinosaurs to get squashed.
Oil companies aren?t in the oil speculation business. As soon as a new supply comes on stream, they hedge off their risk through the futures markets or through long term supply contracts. You can find the prices they hedge at in the back of any annual report.
When oil made its big run a few years ago, I discovered to my amazement that (XOM) had already sold most of their supplies in the $20 range. However, oil companies do make huge killings on what is already in the pipeline.
Working in the oil patch a decade ago pioneering the ?fracking? process for natural gas, I got to know many people in the industry. I found them to be insular, God fearing people not afraid of hard work. Perhaps this is because the black gold they are pursuing can blow up and kill them at any time. They are also great with numbers, which is why the oil majors are the best managed companies in the world.
They are also huge gamblers. I swallow hard when I see the way these guys throw around billions in capital, keeping in mind past disasters, like Dome Petroleum, the Alaskan oil spill, Piper Alpha, and more recently, the ill-fated Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico. But one failure does not slow them down an iota. The ?wildcatting? origins made this a faith based industry from day one, when praying was the principle determinant of where wells were sunk.
Unfortunately, the oil companies are too good at their job of supplying us with a steady and reliable source of energy. They have one of the oldest and most powerful lobbies in Washington, and as a result, the tax code is riddled with favorite treatment of the oil industry. While social security and Medicare are on the chopping block, the industry basks in the glow of $55 billion a year in tax subsidies.
When I first got into the oil business and sat down with a Houston CPA, the tax breaks were so legion that I couldn?t understand why anyone was not in the oil racket. Every wonder why we have had three presidents from Texas over the last 50 years, and looked at a possible fourth last year?
Three words explain it all: the oil depletion allowance, whereby investors can write off the entire cost of a new well in the first year, while the income is spread over the life of the well. This also explains why deep water exploration in the Gulf is far less regulated than California hair dressers.
No surprise then that the industry has emerged in the cross hairs of the debt ceiling negotiations, under the ?loopholes? category. Not only do the country?s most profitable companies pay almost nothing in taxes, they are one of the largest users of private jets.
It is an old Washington nostrum that when things start heading south on the domestic front, you beat up the oil companies. It?s the industry that everyone loves to hate. Cut off the gasoline supply to an environmentalist, and he will be the one who screams the loudest. This has generated recurring cycles of accusatory congressional investigations, windfall profits taxes, and punitive regulations, the most recent flavor we are now seeing.
But imagine what the world would look like if Exxon and its cohorts were German, Saudi, or heaven forbid, Chinese. I bet we wouldn?t have as much oil as we do today, and it wouldn?t be as cheap. Hate them if you will, but at least these are our oil companies. Try jamming a lump of coal into the gas tank of your Prius and tell me what happens.
Love Them, Hate Them or Both?
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?Today, 20% of enterprises are using Apple computers on their desktop. For the first time in 30 years, for developers, it is Apple first, not Apple second. This fundamentally changes our investment thesis,? said Ann Winblad of Winblad Hummer Venture Partners.
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