According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception.
Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like Steve Cohen's SAC Capital, Bruce Kovner's Caxton, and Louise Bacon's Moore Capital. Of the 100 largest funds, 95% have returned much of their investors' original capital, and are using the remaining profits to trade on.
Of course, the numbers show a huge survivor bias. They don't include the hundreds of billions of dollars lost by now shuttered 'wanabee' managers during the financial crash, largely with highly leveraged fixed income, spread oriented, 'low risk' strategies. Many of these are still in liquidation, peddling illiquid assets for pennies on the dollar through online auctions and elsewhere.
The numbers highlight the increasing barbell nature of the hedge fund industry. The biggest funds continue to attract the big bucks, and a steady wave of defections from Wall Street, are funding hundreds of new startups. But many mid-tier firms are getting nothing and are struggling to stay in business.
I spent the evening speaking to Gao Jie, a Beijing civil judge who left the bench to join China's growing environmental movement when her kids came home from school one day coughing and wheezing. You only have to inhale in the capitol city these days to understand that they have a huge problem there.
One of the dirty little secrets of international trade for the last three decades has been the offshoring of high polluting industries from the US and Europe to China, which then vociferously complain about the emerging country's toxic environment. Much of the Middle Kingdom's record carbon emissions these days have been imported from the West. 'Cancer villages' are now proliferating throughout the landscape.
China gets 80% of its power from coal, compared to only 50% in the US. As a result, scientists figure that China became the world's largest emitter of CO2 in 2006. The central government is now asking the provinces to achieve both GDP and energy conservation goals at the same time, a difficult task at best. Government policy dictates that air conditioners only kick in at 79 degrees. If you think that went down well, try spending a summer in Beijing sometime.
It is also pushing headlong into alternative energy, is already the technological leader in key areas like wind, and has an eye to exporting low cost platforms to the US. It is no accident that two of the most competitive solar companies in the world, Suntech (STP) and Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE), are Chinese. China is also having Phoenix based First Solar (FSLR) build the world's largest thin film solar power plant in Western China, which, it turns out, looks a lot like Arizona. The mammoth, 25 square mile facility will supply power to three million homes.
China's problems give one an inkling of how we might have ended up if we hadn't passed the Environmental Protection Act. I first visited China during the Cultural Revolution, when they doused piles of bodies of those who died in the famine with kerosene and burned them, and anyone educated had to endure being paraded down a street in a dunce cap. I had to pinch myself after seeing a sophisticated and well-educated woman like Gao Jie openly pursue her liberal goals, unfettered by a totalitarian regime.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/TpwY3P-FM6lKHHMLqOqCNug3jp_t4NT5mtiKVZewDHIjrNWVj3Iqwf_ulL2sXqoonK0JlWdCYid_qblHBr04wgPMtjrJrCZn8wRAdxs1HUJ55yttuew.jpg180320DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-12 20:02:562012-02-12 20:02:56China's Long and Winding Road
'There is one peculiarity about mass psychology in that when you are in a bubble, you can't see it. Bubbles are invisible when you are inside the bubble,' said the charming Jim Dines, of The Dines Letter.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/K9ccLsflTrkie9UQ-JEve-jchNTHjrDahfTKdoZmyJuYCvKzHjDyNEQKMzZOqNUc6aPO2L5d4PKRwRTREc4W3eSYxYTvNfwMpVoBHHUZQpDvgwDU01w.jpg224320DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-12 20:01:462012-02-12 20:01:46February 13, 2012 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-10 10:40:362012-02-10 10:40:36Trade Alert - (SPY) February 10, 2012
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-10 10:12:322012-02-10 10:12:32Trade Alert - (FXY) February 10, 2012
I just contracted to buy all the gasoline I want at 14 cents a gallon. No, I have not struck oil in my backyard, or come into an inheritance from a long lost Kuwaiti relative. That is the de facto price that PG&E is billing me for a full charge on my all-electric Nissan Leaf.
That works out to $1.20 to recharge a vehicle that will transport me 80 miles, at the price of five cents a kilowatt hour. This is a tiny fraction of? the 40 cents/hour I pay to run the rest of my appliances, and a pittance compared to the 50 cent/hour peak rate I pay to run the air conditioner in the summer.
PG&E has exactly one engineer to talk to its 10 million customers about this ground breaking new technology, and after much effort, I managed to get him on the phone. I asked who was paying the subsidy? Were those profligate spendthrifts in Washington involved? He answered that there was no subsidy, that power sold at night was cheap because there was no other market.
So I inquired as to who was paying for all of the equipment upgrades, like the new transformers and power lines that were needed? Do I sense the heavy hand of Sacramento? He replied that there was no capital cost because the same infrastructure that delivered power to me during the day would be used to power my car at night. Only a couple of bucks would be spent on the installation of a new 'time of use smart meter'.
The car cars with a $7,500 clean energy tax credit. I know we're supposed to be cutting the deficit by eliminating handouts like this. But you'll only take my subsidies away by prying my cold dead hands away off of them. Take someone else's subsidies, not mine! It is the American thing to do these days.
He did mention that one unanticipated problem had arisen. My ears perked up. Many wealthy Tesla Roadster owners in Los Altos Hills were impressing so many girlfriends with rides that they were requiring multiple daytime recharges, even though they promised to recharge only at night. Not only did this send their electricity bills through the roof, it was causing problems with the grid as well. I guess it?s all part of the teething process, a cost of making the great leap forward to the next generation. Who knew that Match.com would be involved?
I never thought I'd get something for nothing, but it looks like this time I will. That is, as long as the car works, and my kids don't run the battery down playing rap music all night.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/i4AdfvY7S4_VTthaJW5mDxMvDKAINPU_K38Nj52w81uEXld3AQ1U8DyXPWHOZSwH1iVTPzz7TDs5RlD2vcsNqmpC5LQOTpI37XiHewohKXngAtXHDsM.jpg213320DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-09 23:04:432012-02-09 23:04:43Getting Something for Nothing
I am in Orlando, Florida today to appear as the Keynote speaker at the 2012 Money Show. A search for a nearby bank took me to the surreal suburb of Celebration, a city developed by the Disney people during the mid-1990's. Created to evoke small town USA circa 1940, the berg tastefully replicates an America from the bucolic past, with wide parks, period street lights, white picket fences, fluttering American flags, and some of the strictest design review and zoning restrictions in the country.
Today, Celebration suffers from a foreclosure rate that is double that found in the rest of Florida. Disney was able to realize fantasy prices for its pixie dust sprinkled homes, about 30% more than equivalent property in the surrounding area. It wisely unloaded its ownership of the downtown commercial property to a California based investor group, which is no doubt regretting its move. The downward spiral began shortly after that. Prices are now thought to be 60% off their 2006 peak.
When the sheriff went to evict one unfortunate homeowner, they were held off at gunpoint for 14 hours before he took his own life. Another unfortunate resident was recently found bludgeoned to death. There is a sad irony that investors who drank the most Kool-Aid during the real estate bubble chose to live along the Southern edge of Disney World. Today, Mickey Mouse seems to be saying 'Rent, don't Buy.'
But That's Not What the Broker Told Me
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'Total credit market debt in the world has gone from $80 trillion to $200 trillion in the last ten years, an 11% annual rate, while GDP has grown by 4%. This can't continue. It's a simple matter of arithmetic,' said Kyle Bass, of hedge fund Hayman Partners.
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The great thing about interviewing Joseph Stiglitz over dinner is that you don't have to ask any questions. You just turn him on and he spits out one zinger after another. And he does this in a kibitzing, wizened, grandfatherly manner like one would expect from a character that just walked off the set of Fiddler on the Roof.
The unfortunate thing is that you also don't get to eat. The Columbia University professor and former World Bank Chief Economist animatedly talked the entire time, and I was too busy feverishly taking notes to ingest a single crouton.
Stiglitz argued that for 30 years after the end of the Great Depression there was no financial crisis because a newly empowered SEC was on the beat, and everything worked. A deregulation trend that started under Reagan began stripping away those protections, with the eventual disastrous repeal of Glass-Steagle in 1999. The philosophical justification adopted by many economists, including Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, was that unfettered markets always lead to efficient outcomes.
This belief was based on simplistic models assuming that markets were always perfect, always open, and that everyone had perfect information. Stiglitz's own work on 'information asymmetry,' which earned him a Nobel Prize in economics in 2001, pulled the rug out from under this theory, because it showed that one party to a transaction always has more information than the other, often the seller.
The banks used this window to introduce super leveraged derivatives that had never been regulated, studied, or even understood. They then clawed open accounting loopholes that were so imaginative that not only were shareholders and regulators deceived about how much risk was involved, senior management was clueless as well. Instead of managing risk, they created risk.
A 2006 GDP that was 80% derived from real estate transactions and a savings rate that fell to zero meant that a severe crash was a sure thing. President Bush's response was to unleash an extreme form of 'trickledown economics,' with the banks given $700 billion with no conditions attached. Intended to recapitalize the banks so they could resume lending to the mainstream economy, much of the money ended up being paid out in bonuses and dividends. Of the $180 billion used to rescue AIG, $13 billion went to Goldman Sachs, and much of the rest went to German and French banks. No wonder Main Street feels cheated.
The financial system is now more distorted than ever, with major institutions wards of the state, and smaller banks that actually lend to consumers and small businesses going under in record numbers, because the playing field is so uneven. There are too many structural conflicts of interest. The 'once in a 100 year tsunami' argument is merely a justification for changing nothing. Banks would rather maintain the fiction that the loans on their books are good, than make adjustments, meaning there will be more foreclosures in 2012 than in 2011 or 2010. No financial system has ever wasted assets on this scale, and the end result will be a national debt many trillions of dollars larger.
The $787 billion stimulus package was too small, and should have been at least $1.2 trillion, but there was no way Obama was going to get more out of this Senate. The 40% of the stimulus that was tax cuts was saved or put into Treasury bonds and created no immediate beneficial effects on the economy. More money should have gone to the states, which unable to deficit spend, are now a huge drag on the economy. But even this meager package was able to prevent the unemployment rate from rising from 10% to 12%, as it was set to do. Any major spending cuts will produce 'Hoover' outcomes.
The outlook for the economy is bleak, at best.
Well, I don't get to chat at length with a Nobel Prize winner every day, so I thought I'd give you the full blast, even though I had to leave a lot out. For a dinner that I could actually eat, I walked next door for a Big Mac meal and supersized the fries.
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?We?ll still operating off of Jackson Hole, 2011 when Ben Bernanke delivered his famous speech preceding quantitative easing,? said foreign exchange trader, Ira Harris.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/171-1211105143-Ben-Bernanke415.jpg337415DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-08 23:01:222012-02-08 23:01:22February 9, 2012 - Quote of the Day
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