After my weekly dump on residential real estate, I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense.
By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below).
That means enormous demand for the low end of the housing market, apartments in multi-family dwellings. Many of our new citizens will be cash short immigrants. They will be joined by generational demand for limited rental housing by 65 million Gen Xer's and 85 million Millennials enduring a lower standard of living than their parents and grandparents. These people aren't going to be living in cardboard boxes under freeway overpasses.
The trend towards apartments also fits neatly with the downsizing needs of 80 million retiring Baby Boomers. As they age, boomers are moving from an average home size of 2,500 sq. ft. down to 1,000 sq ft condos and eventually 100 sq. ft. rooms in assisted living facilities. The cumulative shrinkage in demand for housing amounts to about 4 billion sq. ft. a year, the equivalent of a city the size of San Francisco.
In the aftermath of the economic collapse, rents are now rising and vacancies rates are shrinking. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financing is still abundantly available at the lowest interest rates on record. Institutions combing the landscape for low volatility cash flows and limited risk are starting to pour money in.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/pop.png188376DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-07 23:05:042012-02-07 23:05:04The One Bright Spot in Real Estate
Legendary Fortune Magazine editor, Winslow Jones, created the first hedge fund out of a shabby office on Broadway Avenue in New York City in 1948, and generated monster returns over the next 20 years. He got the idea of a 20% performance bonus, now an industry standard, from ancient Phoenician sea captains who kept a fifth of the profits from successful voyages. Jones must have had an historical bent.
Then came the second generation titans, George Soros, Julian Robertson, and Michael Steinhardt, who made their debut in the sixties. I count myself among the third generation along with Paul Tudor Jones and Louis Bacon, who launched funds in the late eighties, when there were still fewer than 200 funds and $25 million was still considered a lot of money. The really big money showed up in the nineties when the pension funds found them.
After that, we suffered through the many ordeals that followed, including the collapse of Long Term Capital in 1995, the Amaranth blow up in natural gas in 2006, the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, and John Paulson?s 50% draw down in 2011. Today there are over 7,000 hedge funds, thought to manage some $2.2 trillion which dominate all financial markets.
Hedge Funds Do Have Their Advantages
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?You can reduce discretionary spending down to zero and it won?t have much impact on our fiscal problems because it?s such a small proportion of the total,? said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/weight_scale.jpg226226DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-07 23:01:462012-02-07 23:01:46February 8, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Due to the overwhelming surge in new subscriptions last night, my website crashed, preventing many subscribers from renewing at the old $1,997 annual rate BEFORE THE February 7 deadline. I am therefore extending my special offer for just 24 more hours. After that, at midnight EST, Wednesday February 8, prices for both of my products are rising by 50%.
It is an old adage in the investment business that you get what you pay for. Followers of my Macro Millionaire?? trade mentoring got quite a lot last year, with my 56 recommendations bringing in a return of 40.17%.
Since this is the land of the free, the home of the brave, and the last bastion of capitalism, I am going to use this strength to raise prices for the first time in 18 months. The return of inflation starts here.? I am also going to plow my profits into substantially upgrading my products.
My Trade Alert Service will change names to the Global Trade Dispatch. The new services will include a beefed up research team covering a broader array of asset classes, more strategy lunches and seminars around the world, instantaneous distribution of trade alerts through text messaging, and a relaunch of Hedge Fund Radio. It will also include an enhanced live customer support. The new prices are:
$3,000?- One year subscription to Global Trade Dispatch, including the daily newsletter, trade alerts, and webinars
$500?-?Three month subscription to the daily newsletter only
Since I value loyalty, I am honoring the old price of $1,997 until February 8 only. So if your subscription is about to run out, or if you have been sitting on the fence with a view to subscribing, now is the time to act.
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Subscribe to Global Trading Dispatch - (12-Months)
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Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Houston, Texas on Thursday, February 9, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $237.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private downtown Houston club that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at www.madhedgefundtrader.com and click on the ?LUNCHEONS? tab.
Just as portfolio managers are buying shares because the stock market is going up, the fundamental argument behind higher equity prices is starting to erode.
As the totals are coming into focus for the Q4 earnings period, disappointment is becoming the order of the day. Of the 291 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 165 have beat estimates, 92 matched, and 34 disappointed. This 57% ?beat? ratio is the most disappointing in three years. Financials were far and away the biggest winners in the ?disappointment sweepstakes?.
It suggests that 2012 earnings could decelerate to as low as a 1.5% growth rate in Q1, 2012. It also hints that full year 2012 earnings could plunge from the 15% in 2011 to as low as 5% this year, bang on the prediction I made in my 2012 Asset Class Review at the beginning of January. The really scary part about these numbers is that the first half is when we were supposed to see the strength in the economy this year. If this is what the strength looks like, I can?t wait to see the weakness.
Warning: the stock market is not discounting these numbers. Instead, it is discounting a goldilocks scenario that assumes a European quantitative easing is going to deliver a blistering 4% growth rate for the US. There is also some mumbo jumbo in circulation about the presidential election cycle further boosting asset prices, which is utter garbage. The corporate earnings coming through are confirming that this dream scenario is an impossibility. The (SPX) is now up 25% in fourth months. When the stock market figures this, watch out below!
Watch Out Below!
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-06 23:02:162012-02-06 23:02:16Earnings are Slowing as the Market is Peaking
'Changes in consumption stemming from per capita income rises from $1,000 a year to $5,000, as you are seeing in India, or $5,000 to $10,000, as you are seeing in China, is a very different kind of consumption. It is much more commodities heavy, it is food heavy, it draws a lot more on water supplies,' said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, an New York Based think tank.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/food.jpg229320DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-06 23:01:372012-02-06 23:01:37February 7, 2012 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-06 11:58:072012-02-06 11:58:07Trade Alert - (SPY) Update - February 6, 2012
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2012-02-06 10:36:542012-02-06 10:36:54Trade Alert - (SPY) - February 6, 2012
I spent ten years of my life tramping in and out of Japan?s Ministry of Finance headquarters in Tokyo?s Kasumigaseki district. It was a dreadful reinforced steel and concrete affair with a dull grey tile siding that was so solidly built that it was one of the few structures in the city to survive WWII. But the building offered spacious prewar dimensions, and I never tired of walking its worn hardwood floors. I was there so often that some government officials thought I worked there, and they did eventually give me an office, the first ever granted to a foreign correspondent.
So to get an update on the Land of the Rising Sun, I called a senior official whose father I knew well as a Deputy Minister of Finance for International Affairs during the 1970?s. I was a regular at his apartment in Shinjuku on Saturday nights, where we spent endless hours alternately playing chess and Scrabble over a bottle of Johnny Walker Red and smoking Mild Sevens. We did everything we could to expand each other?s? Japanese and English vocabularies with the words not found in dictionaries. When the bottle was almost finished and his face was beet red, the Elvis impersonations would start.
My friend told me that the ongoing strength of the yen is rapidly becoming a major political issue in Japan. The spot market is now threatening an all-time high, and on a trade weighted basis it was already at a new peak. Exporters were getting destroyed by the strong yen, which was making their goods increasingly expensive in a cost cutting competitive world.
This was forcing them to accelerate a 20 year effort by corporations to offshore production to China, which was ?hollowing out? Japan and causing economic growth to bleed away, and unemployment to rocket. The situation was getting so bad that American companies that offshored jobs to Japan years ago, like Caterpillar (CAT), were taking them back home because labor costs are so high. He expected Japan?s GDP to shrink at a 1.4% annualized rate during Q4, compared to a healthy 2.9% rate in the US.
His boss, Japanese finance minister, Juri Azumi, made comments in the Diet this week about his concern over yen strength. More specifically, he is seeking approval for a much more aggressive stance to pursue Bernanke style quantitative easing to knock the stuffing out of the yen and stimulate the economy.
The last time he did this, on October 31 last year, the Bank of Japan followed up with a massive $120 billion intervention in the foreign exchange market a few weeks later. One of the largest such interventions in history, it instantly knocked the yen down from ?75.90 to ?79.20. We may be about to see a replay. In fact, if they can just break resistance at ?80, then they might be able to knock it down to the 2011 low of ?85.30.
This time, Azumi has much more ammunition to work with. Japan reported its first trade deficit in 30 years just a few weeks ago. This may not be an anomaly. In response to the tsunami induced melt down at the Fukushima plant, Japan is permanently shutting down a large part of its nuclear power generating capacity. At its peak, nuclear accounted for 25% of the country?s electric power supply. That is forcing a huge surge in oil imports from the Middle East that has greatly tipped Japan?s balance of trade against it. Crude?s surge from $75/barrel to as high as $103 has only made matters worse.
He then told me that he too was now learning to play Scrabble and asked me for my list of words where the letter ?Q? is not followed by a ?U?. I said that I was not inclined to disclose America?s most valuable trade secrets to a foreign competitor. However, in deference to his late father, he couldn?t go wrong starting with ?Qi?, ?Qabala?, ?Qadi?, ?Qaid?, ?Qat? and ?Qanat?. I hung up the phone and immediately sold more yen against the dollar.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-05 23:03:382012-02-05 23:03:38Rumblings in Tokyo
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