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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Debt Ceiling Crisis is Cancelled

Diary, Newsletter

I am sitting here in front of a crackling hot fire at my lakeshore estate in Nevada?s Incline Village. It is a brilliantly clear day, with mallard ducks skimming the surface of Lake Tahoe, and the Canadian geese flying in formation overhead. Snow covered Mount Tallac, some 30 miles to the South, looks so close I feel I can almost grab it and take out a bite.

I am on my way to Washington DC for the inauguration, and had the jet touch down in nearby Truckee for a day of reading and rest. My staff greeted me like I was some kind of conquering hero. One of the perks of working for me is that they get a free subscription to my newsletter, and they all invest their 401k?s, IRA,?s pensions, and profit sharing plans accordingly. When they?re doing well, I feel it. My performance shows in those little chocolate truffles that get placed on my pillow at night.

In fact, it has been the hottest start to a year for me in a long time. The model- trading portfolio is up 8% so far in 2013, which is more than half of what I made during all of last year. With the way my positions are currently structured, I stand to make an additional 50 basis points a day until the next options expiration on February 15. All the market has to do until then is to trade up, sideways, or down small,and I get to keep it all. Right now, that is looking like a pretty good bet.

I completely nailed everything. On day one, I went aggressively long the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM). I averaged up with more equity positions, a financial, American Insurance Group (AIG), and copper producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX) as a China play. Sensing that it was pedal to the metal for a falling yen (FXY), (YCS), I put a major chink of the portfolio into a short position there. In effect, I am long US equities in Japanese yen.

On top of that, I have a massively short volatility position embedded in all of this, not a bad thing to have when the Volatility Index (VIX) is plumbing new six year lows at the 12% handle. Since then, the data has been released showing that the biggest cash flows into equity mutual in a decade came hot on the heels of my Trade Alerts. Things only went awry with Apple (AAPL), which continued to weaken beyond all belief, as if to prove that I was only human.

It looks like my numbers are going to get a further boost this week from no less a fan than the Republican Party. Former vice presidential candidate, Paul Ryan, from Wisconsin, has indicated that the coming debt ceiling crisis, due on March 31, will be postponed for three months.

Having covered Washington politics for 40 years, I can tell you that he is speaking in code. For ?postponed?, read ?cancelled?. I think they figured out it was a lame idea anyway. Certainly, the markets came to the conclusion two months ago that all of these media constructed ?crises? were a bunch of baloney. That is why I have been pounding the table with readers to pile on the long positions, and ?go commando? on their short positions. Risk markets can only go ballistic in response to this ?aha? moment.

All of this encourages me to stick with the strategy outlined in my 2013 Annual Asset Class Review (click here). Look for a hot first quarter, to be followed by two scary ones, and then a strong finish. This means that all good things will be coming to an end in the not too distant future. In fact, we have probably already started some sort of topping process in the markets that will take a couple of months to unfold. Then look out below.

I just got a call from the airport that the flight plan has been filed, clearance obtained, and the jet is fueled up. Got to go.

Life is good.

SPY 1-18-13

Nice Long!

FXY 1-18-13

Nice Short!

AAPL 1-18-13

Party Pooper!

Tahoe Dock

Life is Good!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Tahoe-Dock.jpg 284 415 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-22 09:22:232013-01-22 09:22:23The Debt Ceiling Crisis is Cancelled
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 18, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 18, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:
(ATTENDING MY LAST ELECTRIC NISSAN LEAF RALLY)
(SPOILED FOR CHOICE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 23:03:152013-01-17 23:03:15January 18, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Attending My Last Electric Nissan Leaf Rally

Diary, Newsletter

It was a typical fall day in San Francisco, the fog wafting in and out through the Golden Gate Bridge. I took the opportunity to attend a company sponsored rally of Nissan Leaf drivers on the Marina Green.

These were the fanatics, the diehards, the truly devoted. These were people who were willing to bet big bucks on an untested, unproven new technology. These were the faithful who put up $5,000 years in advance on the chance that Nissan might actually be able to produce the car someday. In the Bay, there are at least a couple million of us. That?s why so much new, groundbreaking technology originates here.

I am considered of the eminence gris of this community, as I have been covering Nissan as a company for 40 years, and am friends with the current peripatetic Brazilian CEO, Carlos Ghosn. ?I was involved in the early design process of the Leaf, took delivery of one of the first American models, and have run up the most miles.

I strolled among the revelers, speaking to other owners and comparing notes. For the right-brained English teacher types who don?t know the difference between an amp, a volt, or a kilowatt, I answered some basic engineering questions. To admire their creativity, check out the pictures of their personalized license plate numbers, which I posted below.

One guy was there selling an aftermarket Leaf range extender he designed himself, which he claimed boosted the single charge travel distance from 80 miles to 150. The price was $4,000. You always see this sort of thing at Bay area events, people promoting something they built in their dorm room that is revolutionary. Other electric car drivers showed up, including those behind the wheels of BMW?s, Tesla?s, iMiev?s, and Fisker?s. Nissan provided all comers with a 440-volt fast charge for free.

Not only did I buy a car with a zero running cost. I also joined a social community. Someone has developed an iPhone app which lists all the people in your immediate area who will let you hook up to their home for a free charge. As a result, I have never seen one of these dead on the side of the road. But I have passed them doing 45 on the freeway, which means they are just about to run out of juice, and are employing desperate range extending tactics.

Leaf drivers are admired for their idealism, environmental consciousness, and grit by local residents. I never go anywhere without getting a thumbs up. When I first drove mine home, I told my neighbor with the solar roof panels, ?I?ve out greened you.? He grimaced. The state also treats us as royalty. Electric car owners are entitled to a coveted silver bumper sticker that allows them to drive in high occupancy vehicle lanes with a single driver 24/7. Only drivers of 100% battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell, and compressed natural gas powered cars are entitled to such a privilege. Prius drivers, eat your heart out.

Leaf

Nil Gas

ELIC4ME

FLYLEAF

AMPGZLR

WATSNU

ICEFREE

PLUGIE

BBYEOIL

COALBAD

SNPWRD

KWHIRKY

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Nil-Gas.jpg 292 387 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 23:02:422013-01-17 23:02:42Attending My Last Electric Nissan Leaf Rally
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Spoiled for Choice

Diary, Newsletter

Boy, am I spoiled for choice on what to do this weekend. On the one hand, I have been invited to join the president on the reviewing stand for Monday?s inauguration in Washington DC. On the other, the Maverick?s World Surf competition near California?s Half Moon Bay is on the same day, which has not been held for three years.

I have to admit that it is temping to don my wetsuit, throw my Firewire Dominator board into the back of my Highlander, and catch some 40-foot waves with the best in the world. It is rare to get these monster waves on the California coast, which are more often found at Waimea Bay on Oahu?s North Shore. But the mid Pacific buoy says they are headed our way.

I can?t tell you what impossible mission I accomplished to get invitations like these. If I did, I would have to kill you.

In the end, it?s my readership that will decide the issue. I think I can gain more market insight hanging for a day with the cabinet, the Supreme Court, and the leaders of Congress and the Federal Reserve, than a bunch of surfer dudes. It is especially critical that I gauge their thinking, since there are so many momentous political events hanging over the financial markets these days.

I also don?t want to risk offending the president, as I might lose my special access and get cut off his Christmas card list. So I?ll let you know what I decide. In the meantime, on Monday, look for me about ten rows behind the Chief Justice during the swearing in ceremony. And you can catch the Mavericks on ESPN.

Surfing

Will It Be This?

Inaugural Invitation

Or This?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? Bo??????? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ????????????? White House Xmas Card

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Surfing.jpg 298 455 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 23:01:132013-01-17 23:01:13Spoiled for Choice
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 18, 2013 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?I?m afraid there are going to be ashes in my stocking this year,? said Bill Gross of bond giant PIMCO, about his expectation of poor return for bond funds this year.

Spoiled Child

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Spoiled-Child.jpg 267 215 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 23:00:152013-01-17 23:00:15January 18, 2013 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up - (TLT) January 17, 2013

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/FatLady2-2.jpg 248 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 11:00:422013-01-17 11:00:42Follow Up - (TLT) January 17, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) January 17, 2013

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-17 10:42:022013-01-17 10:42:02Trade Alert - (TLT) January 17, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 17, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 17, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:
(APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MLP?S ARE ON FIRE),
(CVRR), (SXCP), (AMJ), (EEP), (KMP), (TLP)
(ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE)


https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-16 23:03:202013-01-16 23:03:20January 17, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MLP?s Are On Fire

Newsletter

Master Limited Partnerships have been on fire since the beginning of the year. Once the deal on the ?Fiscal Cliff? was done, and these instruments? special tax treatment protected, it was off to the races. These unique and versatile instruments combine the tax benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of publicly traded securities.

The explosion in demand has created a new issue boom. SunCoke Energy Partners (SXCP) makes coking coal used in the steel production process, came to market this week boasting an 8.25% yield. Then, CVR Refining (CVRR), which specializes in petroleum refining in Texas and Oklahoma, upped the ante with an eye popping 18.8% yield. These things can?t be that high risk!

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is run by some of my former colleagues at Morgan Stanley and offers a 7% yield. Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP) posts a healthy 5.8% yield, while Trans Mountain (TLP) ups the ante with an 8% return. Linn Energy goes all the way up to a healthy 6.3% yield.

Why the enticing cash flow? The problem is that these partnerships suffer from their guilt by association with Texas Tea, which is notorious for its volatility. Although they have no direct exposure to the price of oil, investors tend to incorrectly classify them as energy stocks and dump them whenever oil falls. The great thing about these high yields is that you get paid to wait until crude makes a comeback, which it will always do, as long as there is a China. Not a bad game to play in a zero return world.

To qualify for MLP status, a partnership must generate at least 90 percent of its income from what the Internal Revenue Service deems ?qualifying? sources. For many MLPs, these include all manner of activities related to the production, processing or transportation of oil, natural gas and coal.

Energy MLPs are defined as owning energy infrastructure in the U.S., including pipelines, natural gas, gasoline, oil, storage, terminals, and processing plants. These are all special tax subsidies put into place when oil companies suffered from extremely low oil prices. Once on the books, they lived on forever.

In practice, MLPs pay their investors through quarterly distributions. Typically, the higher the quarterly distributions paid to LP unit holders, the higher the management fee paid to the general partner. The idea is that the GP has an incentive to try to boost distributions through pursuing income-accretive acquisitions and organic growth projects.

Because MLPs are partnerships, they avoid the corporate income tax, on both a state and federal basis. Instead of getting a form 1099-DIV and the end of the year, you receive a form K-1, which your accountant should know how to handle. The only problem with this set up is that the partnerships are required to send you a K-1 for every state in which they do business. Own enough of these, and your tax return will end up as thick as the Houston telephone book.

Additionally, the limited partner (investor) may also record a pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation on his or her own tax forms to reduce liability. This is the primary benefit of MLPs and gives MLPs relatively cheap funding costs.

The tax implications of MLPs for individual investors are complex. The distributions are taxed at the marginal rate of the partner, unlike dividends from qualified stock corporations. On the other hand, there is no advantage to claiming the pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation (see above) when held in a tax deferred account, like an IRA or 401k. To encourage tax-deferred investors, many MLP?s set up corporation holding companies of LP claims which can issue common equity.

Since 2003, MLPs as an asset class have grown astronomically, from $30 billion to over $250 billion, and have also been the best performing asset class in the world over the last 10, 5, and 3 year periods. The recent discovery of new, massive gas and oil fields in the US and the rapid expansion of shale fracking should auger well for the rising popularity of this instrument.

If you don?t want to bet the ranch putting all you money into a single issue, you might consider the JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (AMJ), with a 5.35% yield. You give up some yield here in exchange for a broader diversification of risk across many issues in this quasi index fund. For many, it will be worth it to just to sleep at night.

wtic 1-16-13

KMP 1-16-13

TLP 1-16-13

EEP 1-16-13

LINE 1-16-13

Pipeline

Nope, Don?t See Any Yield Yet

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Pipeline.jpg 251 388 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-16 23:02:352013-01-16 23:02:35MLP?s Are On Fire
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

All I Want to do is Retire

Diary, Newsletter

I have always believed that if you don?t have a sense of humor, then you better get the hell out of this business. Below is a link to a YouTube video entitled ?All I Want to do is Retire? which covers the decline of the brokerage industry over the last 20 years. The video is currently going viral and sent to me by a subscriber. Watch this during your next coffee break. The run time is five minutes. Sometimes the truth can be hard to swallow. Click here

Dollar in Vice

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Dollar-in-Vice.jpg 295 355 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-01-16 23:01:292013-01-16 23:01:29All I Want to do is Retire
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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