Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $229.
The lunch will be held at a downtown Amsterdam hotel near Nieumarkt that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Amsterdam.jpg319479Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-07 09:16:082013-05-07 09:16:08July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon
Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I?m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt!
So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your computer, which is an innocuous little text file that you can?t see. Since then, I have been tracking your every move, recording websites you clicked on, the pages you visited, and the stuff you ordered. I then used this handy little algorithm to build a profile of exactly who you are. I now know you better than your own mother. In fact, I know you better than you know yourself.
For example, I am aware that you make more than $250,000 a year, live in a posh zip code in San Francisco, belong to a fancy country club, and drive a Mercedes. You donate to Republican political causes, send your kids to a prestigious private school, and bill it all to an American Express Platinum Card. Did I leave anything out?
Because I know every detail of your life, down to your inside leg measurement, I am able to harness the power of this machine to more precisely service your every need. That includes directing advertising to you, which you have a high probability of clicking on. The more you click on my ads, the higher prices I can realize for those ads. The ad campaigns you now see are unique to your own personal computer because they are tied to your IP address. My program, called ?behavioral targeting? is the next ?big thing? in online advertising. It?s all part of the brave new world.
I see you have been shopping for a new car. Check out the new Hyundai at http://www.hyundaiusa.com/ , which offers the same quality as your existing ride, at half the price. Your clicks this morning suggest you?re taking your ?significant other? out to dinner tonight. Might I suggest Gary Danko?s on Bay Street at http://www.garydanko.com/site/bio.html? The rack of lamb is to die for there. Your visits to http://www.travelocity.com/ and http://www.expedia.com/ tell me you?re planning a vacation. I bet you didn?t know you can find incredible deals in Las Vegas at http://www.visitlasvegas.com/vegas/index.jsp. Thinking about buying a condo there? They?ll even pay for the trip if you promise to check one out while you?re there.
Since we?re chatting here mano a mano, I noticed that that last pair of jeans you ordered from http://us.levi.com/home/index.jsp had a 42-inch waist, up from the 40?s in your last order. Better lay off those cheeseburgers. Pretty soon, they?ll be calling you ?tubby? or ?fatso?. Better visit http://www.weightwatchers.com/Index.aspx soon, or the legs on that chair might buckle out from under you.
Worried about privacy? Privacy, shmivacy. There hasn?t been privacy in this country since the first social security number was handed out in 1936. And don?t expect any relief from Congress. I doubt half those dummies even know how to turn on their own PC?s.
Don?t even think about trying to delete me. I?m a ?flash cookie?, an insidious little piece of code that reinstalls every time you try that. Think of me as a toenail fungus. Once you catch me, I?m almost impossible to get rid of.
I hope you don?t mind, but I?ve been passing your personal details around to some of my buddies at other websites. That?s why when you clicked on http://www.nfl.com/ you got deluged with product offers from your local team, the San Francisco 49ers. I?ve got friends at Google, Facebook, MySpace, and pretty much everywhere. Can I help it if I?m a popular guy? I bet the view from those 50 yard seats is great, isn?t it?
I noticed that your spending habits don?t exactly match with the income you reported on your last tax return. Do you think the IRS would like to know about that? I bet you didn?t know the agency offers a 10% reward for turning in tax cheats.
How did you like those triple X DVD?s you bought last week? Whoa! Hot, hot, hot! I hope your employer never finds out about those. It might not go down too well at your next performance review.
I thought it was lovely that you bought your spouse a two carat, yellow, vvs1, round cut diamond ring for $26,000 from http://www.bluenile.com/ for your 30th wedding anniversary. But who is Lolita, the Argentine firecracker, in Miami Beach? Does the old wifey know you sent her a $2,000 pair of diamond stud earrings? What?s it worth to you for me to keep mum on this? Maybe you should take a quick peak at http://www.divorcelawfirms.com/ and see what you?re in for?
Naw, I?m just pulling your leg. This is all just between friends, right? Think of it as a doctor/patient relationship. I?ll tell you what. See that leaderboard ad at the top of the page? Just click on that and we?ll call it even. Oooh that felt good! Click it again. Oh, baby! Not too many times. You?ll trigger my anti click fraud program.
Now you see that wide skyscraper add over on the right? Click on that too. Oh baby! Click it again! And there?s a little button ad at the bottom of the page. No, not that one. A little lower. What was that little cutie?s name in Miami again? Aaaaah.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/computer.jpg285275Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-07 09:14:072013-05-07 09:14:07Be Careful! Your PC is Watching
Signing up for your service was the easiest decision that I have ever made knowing the value that I am getting in return. Thanks for making the world of capital markets profitable for non-Wall Street guys that are busy working in other professions. Until now, I have been forced to deal with money managers or 'Company Men' that only push the products their higher ups want to sell. Finally, I have an alternative route to go. Thanks a ?Million?.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Testimonial.jpg201241Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-07 09:06:202013-05-07 09:06:20Testimonial
?The private economy is OK here. It is absorbing these body blows from Washington. Housing and energy could offset the shenanigans coming out of there,? said Stephen Wood, CIO with Russell Investments Group.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Boxers-Fight.jpg223328Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-07 09:05:042013-05-07 09:05:04May 7, 2013 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BEN?S NEW LEG FOR THE BULL MARKET), (SPY), (IWM), (AAPL), (GLD), (SLV), (CU), (TLT), (YCS), (FXY) (PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-06 09:21:132013-05-06 09:21:13May 6, 2013
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I will also explain how I have been able to deliver a blowout 40% return since the November, 2012 market bottom. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The PowerPoint presentation will be emailed to you three days before the event.
The lunch will be held at a major Las Vegas hotel on the Strip, the details will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Please make your own hotel reservations, as business there is booming.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/las-vegas-welcome-sign.jpg487325Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-06 09:20:282013-05-06 09:20:28May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon
I just returned from my round of monthly wine club pick-ups in California?s lush and fertile Napa Valley. I invested a half hour soaking up the breathtaking views at the hilltop Silverado winery. Duckhorn offered a lavish lunch event, which I ducked out on. The Wagner family is prospering as always, recently opening a tasting room for their spectacular Caymus private label. The trunk of my electric Tesla S-1 is brimming over with fine cabernet, merlot, pinot noir, and the odd zinfandel.
Driving through rolling hills of ripening grapevines also gave me time to digest and contemplate the implications of the dramatic events of last Friday. The Department of Labor announced a bombshell of an April nonfarm payroll, showing 165,000 in job gains in the face of dire expectations, taking the headline unemployment rate down to 7.5%, a four year low.
Far more important were the dope slapping revisions of prior months. February was taken up from a healthy 268,000 to an eye popping 332,000. As if by magic, March was boosted from a feeble 88,000 to a more robust 138,000.
I made a nice killing with my long positions in Apple (AAPL) and the S&P 500 (SPY). But I also suffered painful stop outs in my short positions in the Russell 2000 (IWM), which only had two weeks to run to expiration, sending my performance for the month down in flames. Such is the risk of betting on this notoriously volatile and always revised data point. If you play with fire, you get burned.
There were 50 data points warning that the April nonfarm payroll was going to be a disaster, the details of which you can find in my most recently posted Global Strategy Webinar. They all painted a picture of an undeniably weakening economy, paving the way for a nice ?Sell in May? and a following summer correction right on schedule.
That?s why, to a man, every hedge fund trader went into the Friday release net short. So when the announcement came, the short covering was fast and furious. And it occurred across all asset classes simultaneously. Stocks of every description and commodities (CU) soared, while the Japanese yen (FXY) (YCS) and the Treasury bond market (TLT) cratered. Only the precious metals of gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) remained moribund, still working off a long hangover.
It turns out that I was not the only one who noticed the soggy economic data. It also caught the attention of Fed governor, Ben Bernanke, ECB president, Mario Draghi, and BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, who together launched a trifecta of coordinated rescue measures designed to provide emergency life support for the flagging recovery.
In the Fed minutes released on Wednesday, Uncle Ben suggested that he might actually increase monetary easing. The European Central Bank, in a better late than never move, finally cut Euro interest rates by 25 basis points. An indiscreet minister also hinted that negative Euro interest rates might be in the cards. Of course, burning all the shorts was part and parcel of this program.
So we now have to ask, what happens next? Welcome to an S&P 500 earnings multiple of 16, a figure not seen for six years! With zero interest rates, global monetary easing still expanding, and the rest of the world tripping over each other to buy American stocks, higher multiples are in the cards. Stocks that seem richly priced to us here seem unbelievably cheap to every one else.
How high is high? One old trader?s rule of thumb says that every multiple year breakout is worth at least 10%. That takes the (SPY) up to 1,760, and the Dow average to 16,500, possibly by year end. Instead of the major 5%-10% corrections investors have been expecting all year, we may continue to get sideways time corrections before each leg up.
There also seems to be another factor at work here. Every time I take a run at a 40% return, I get thrown back. It has already happened twice this year. It?s as if 40% is an unnatural act requiring incantations in strange tongues to surpass. Black swans come out of nowhere, as do the shocks and surprises. You can do all the work in the world in these conditions, and it often ends of being for free.
That?s why in past years, when I was running my big hedge fund, I would quit for the year whenever I approached the 40% level. I then sent a letter to my investors saying I?m not working anymore until I got paid my performance bonus off of the lofty numbers. I then proceeded to take extended vacations, sending my investors postcards from exotic locales.
They all loved it.
Bring Me That 40%
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Crystal-Ball.jpg204306Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-06 09:18:252013-05-06 09:18:25Ben?s New Leg for the Bull Market
The original purpose of this letter was to build a database of ideas to draw on in the management of my hedge fund. When a certain trade comes into play, I merely type in the symbol, name, currency, or commodity into the search box, and the entire fundamental argument in favor of that position pops up with a link chain to older stories.
You can do the same. Just type anything into the search box with the little magnifying glass in the upper right side of my Homepage and a cornucopia of data, charts, and opinion wills appear. Even the price of camels in India (to find out why they?re going up, click here). As of today, the database goes back to February 2008, and comprises some 2 million words, or triple the length of Tolstoy?s epic novel, War and Peace.
Watching the traffic over time, I can tell you how the database is being used, and the implications are fascinating:
1) Small hedge funds want to see what the large hedge funds are doing.
2) Large hedge funds look to see what they have missed, which is usually nothing.
3) Midwestern advisors to find out what is happening in New York and Chicago.
4) American investors to find out if there are any opportunities overseas (there are lots).
5) Foreign investors wish to find out what the hell is happening in the US (about 1,000 inquiries a day come in through Google?s translation software in a multitude of languages).
6) Specialist traders in stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals are looking for cross market insights which will give them a trading advantage with their own book.
7) High net worth individuals managing their own portfolios so they don?t get screwed on management fees.
8) Low net worth individuals, students, and the military looking to expand their knowledge of financial markets (lots of free online time in the Navy).
9) People at the Treasury and the Fed trying to find out what the private sector is doing.
10) Staff at the SEC and the CFTC to see if there is anything new they should be regulating.
11) More staff at the Congress and the Senate looking for new hot button issues to distort and obfuscate.
12) Yet, even more staff in Obama?s office gauging his popularity and the reception of his policies.
13) As far as I know, no justices at the Supreme Court read my letter. They?re all closet indexers.
14) Potential investors/subscribers attempting to ascertain if I have the slightest idea of what I am talking about.
15) Me trying to remember trades which I recommended, but have forgotten.
16) Me looking for trades that worked so I can say, ?I told you so.?
It?s there, it?s free, so please use it.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Woman-hitting-head.jpg213185Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-06 09:14:212013-05-06 09:14:21Please Use My Free Data Base Search
?You cannot trust bankers to control themselves. They?re like heroin addicts,? said Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Man-lighting-cigar.jpg249168Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-06 09:10:312013-05-06 09:10:31May 6, 2013 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-05-03 12:42:412013-05-03 12:42:41Trade Alert - (IWM) May 3, 2013
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