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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2013 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 09:27:592013-11-12 09:27:59November 12, 2013 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 12, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(YOU JUST CAN?T KEEP AMERICA DOWN),
(TLT), (SPY), (GLD),
(A SPECIAL NOTE ON NOVEMBER EXERCISED OPTIONS)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:05:152013-11-12 01:05:15November 12, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

You Just Can?t Keep America Down

Newsletter

You just can?t keep America down. That is the overwhelming message from Friday?s blockbuster October nonfarm payroll showing that 204,000 jobs were added, double the industry forecasts. The headline unemployment rate ratcheted back up from 7.2% to 7.3%, the first gain in many months.

August and September were revised up by an eye popping 60,000 jobs. October private sector job growth came in at a stunning 212,000. Apparently, the prospect of an imminent default by the US government prompted many corporate managers to rush out and hire! Go figure.

Without the Washington shutdown we probably would have seen a 300,000 print. It appears that 223,000 federal workers were temporarily laid off, but later received back pay, so they weren?t counted as jobless.

Leisure and hospitality was up an unbelievable 53,000. Retail added 44,000. Professional and technical services tacked on 21,000. Health care increased by 12,000 jobs, anticipating an onslaught of 30 million new customers with government guaranteed payments, thanks to Obamacare.

It confirms what I have been arguing since the summer, that the US economy is far stronger than anyone suspects, and that we are accelerating with an upward trajectory. This is the recurring theme that I get from speaking to dozens of CEO?s every month, whose views on the health of their own business usually beat the government data releases by 3-6 months. Believe me, I don?t talk to these guys because they wear snappy suits.

Of course, the initial market reaction was negative, since the good news is seen as advancing the Federal Reserve?s tapering of its quantitative easing program. This certainly was the read by the stock market on Thursday, when a surprise interest cut in the Euro and a blistering 2.8% Q3 GDP report triggered a 150 sell off in the Dow. Gold took it on the nose again, dropping $25. But we made it all back, and more, the next day, disproving this analysis, for everything, except gold.

Bonds really took it in the keister, the (TLT) dropping two and a half full points, bumping ten year Treasury yield up from 2.60% to 2.77%, one of the most extreme pops of the year in the fixed income markets. I came within a hair?s breadth of doubling my bond shorts the previous day, but decided to wait for the payroll report. This time, discretion was not the better part of valor.

If anyone had any doubts about the extreme, but underestimated strength of the economy, better take a look at the chart below of growth of the broader monetary aggregates. We are running at a nearly white hot 40% YOY growth rate.

This reflects a huge increase that is occurring in the velocity of money, a number that almost no one tracks, in addition to the Federal Reserve?s never ending monetary expansion. This is because more people everywhere are doing more business with each other. Despite what you hear in the media, confidence is rocketing. This eventually has to feed into higher reported GDP growth rates and will justify ever-higher share prices.

How many individual investors believe this? Almost no one. This year, $114 billion has trickled back into equity mutual funds. That is only a dent in the $600 billion this group tore out of equity mutual funds over the last five years. That fact alone should be worth another 25% of upside in the indexes.

For more depth on the rapidly evolving fundamentals in the economy, click here for my recent piece on ?The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up?.

TLT 11-8-13

Adjusted Monetary Base

Uncle Sam - FistIn Better Shape Than He Looks

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:04:322013-11-12 01:04:32You Just Can?t Keep America Down
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Special Note on November Exercised Options

Diary, Newsletter

There are only 4 days left until the equity option expiration on November 15. My short dated November expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all nine of these trades quickly turning profitable. Including the six positions we now have on board, the last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, raising the success rate of our service to a stunning 85%.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trade portfolio has three remaining positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit.

I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go.

The options traded on US exchanges and referred to in my Trade Alerts are American style, meaning that they can be exercised at any time by the owner. This is in contrast to European style options, which can only be exercised on the expiration day.

The call option spreads that I have been recommending for the past year are composed of a deep out-of-the-money long strike price plus a short portion at a near money strike price.

When stocks have high dividends, there is a chance that the near money option you are short gets exercised against you by the owner. This requires you to deliver the stock equivalent of the option you are short, plus any quarterly dividends that are due. Don?t worry, because your long position perfectly hedges you against this possibility.

You usually get notice of this assignment in an email after the close. You then need to email or call your broker back immediately informing him that you want to exercise your remaining long option position to meet your assigned short position.

This is a gift, as it means that you can realize the entire maximum theoretical profit of the position without having to take the risk of running it all the way into expiration. You can either keep the cash, or pile on another short dated option spread position and make even more money.

This should completely close out your position and leave you with a nice profit. This is not an automatic process and requires action on your part!

Assignments are made on a random basis by an exchange computer, and can happen any day. Exercise means the owner of the option that you are short completely loses all of the premium on his call.

Dividends have to be pretty high to make such a move economic, usually at least over 3% on an annual rate. But these days, markets are so efficient that traders, or their machines, will exercise options for a single penny profit.

Surprise assignments create a risk for option spread owners in a couple of ways. If you don?t check your email every day after the close, you might not be aware that you have been assigned. Alternatively, such emails sometimes get lost, or hung up in local servers or spam filters, which occasionally happens to readers of my own letter.

Then, you are left with the long side deep out-of-the-money call alone, which will have a substantially higher margin requirement. This is equivalent to going outright long the stock in large size.

This is a totally unhedged position now, and suddenly, you are playing a totally different game. If the stock then rises, you could be in for a windfall profit. But if it falls, you could take a big hit. Better to completely avoid this situation at all cost and not take the chance. You are probably not set up to do this type of trading.

If you don?t have the cash in your account to cover this, you could get a margin call. If you ignore this call as well, your broker will close out your position at market without your permission.

It could produce some disconcerting communications from your broker. They generally hate issuing margin calls, and could well close your account if it is too small to bother with, as they create regulatory issues.

In order to get belt and braces coverage on this issue, it is best to call your broker and find out exactly what are their assignment policies and procedures. Believe it or not, some are still in the Stone Age, and have yet to automate the assignment process or give notice by email. An ounce of prevention could be worth a pound of cure here. You can?t believe how irresponsible some of these people can be.

Consider all this a cost of doing business, or a frictional execution cost. In-the-money options are still a great strategy. But you should be aware of all the ins and outs to get the most benefit.

John Thomas

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-2

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:03:322013-11-12 01:03:32A Special Note on November Exercised Options
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2013 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?A bubble is a bull market in which you don?t have a long position,? said one market commentator.

Market

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Market.jpg 251 375 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:02:082013-11-12 01:02:08November 12, 2013 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2013 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-11 09:16:522013-11-11 09:16:52November 11, 2013 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 11, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2013 PERFORMANCE TOPS 51%),
(TLT), (TBT), (AAPL), (XLI), (IWM), (SPY)
(TESTIMONIAL),
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-11 01:06:272013-11-11 01:06:27November 11, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 8, 2013 - MDT - The Usual Suspects

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 12:35:312013-11-08 12:35:31November 8, 2013 - MDT - The Usual Suspects
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (AAPL) November 8, 2013

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/apple-1.jpg 333 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 11:29:582013-11-08 11:29:58Follow Up to Trade Alert - (AAPL) November 8, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (AAPL) November 8, 2013

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 11:13:432013-11-08 11:13:43Trade Alert - (AAPL) November 8, 2013
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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