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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 15, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HOW LONG WILL THE RUN IN MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS CONTINUE?),
(LINE), (BWP), (USO), (UNG),
(PILING ON THE SHORTS AGAIN), (SPY)

Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (BWP)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:06:152014-04-15 01:06:15April 15, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How Long Will the Run in Master Limited Partnerships Continue?

Diary, Newsletter

Boy, that was one hell of a recommendation I made back in 2012, getting readers to buy Master Limited Partnerships (MLP?s).

The share price for my favorite, Linn Energy (LINN), is unchanged from when I urged readers to pick it up. However, they have taken home nearly 25% in dividend payoffs during the same period. Not a bad return in this zero interest rate world.

The origins of the special tax breaks that led to the creation of these most complex of securities are lost in the sands of time. As I recall, they date back to a period when the US was chronically short of oil, and industry desperately needed the big ticket infrastructure to produce and deliver it.

They worked like a charm. Never underestimate the desire of the American investor to avoid paying taxes.

An MLP is a ?pass through? instrument that allows profits to move directly to end investors, thus bypassing corporate double taxation. That set up generates enormous yields that are particularly attractive to individual investors. Some 114 MLP?s now exist, and most can be bought on public exchanges as easily as stocks or exchange traded funds (ETF?s).

It is an old Wall Street nostrum to feed the geese while they are quacking, and investment bankers have done so in spades (see chart below). The number of initial public offering for MLP?s has soared in recent years, from just two in 1985 to a prolific 21 last year.

New issue volumes have become so prodigious that they are disrupting the dynamics of the secondary market. Investors are now unloading their existing MLP?s to make room for the new ones, setting back prices on existing issues. The same disease is also afflicting biotech stocks, where an overly ambitious new issue calendar triggered dramatic falls in the sector.

Will Wall Street kill the gold goose yet again?

MLP?s have benefited enormously from the fracking and horizontal drilling boom now unfolding across the United States. As a result, US energy demand is at a 30 year high, and so is the demand for energy infrastructure.

As I often tell my guests at my Global Strategy Luncheons, the smart play in natural gas, where supplies are burgeoning, is a volume play, and not a price play. MLP?s achieve exactly that.

To qualify for MLP status, a partnership must generate at least 90 percent of its income from what the Internal Revenue Service deems ?qualifying? sources. For many MLPs, these include all manner of activities related to the production, processing or transportation of oil, natural gas, and coal.

Energy MLPs are defined as owning energy infrastructure in the U.S., including pipelines, natural gas, gasoline, oil, storage, terminals, and processing plants. These are all special tax subsidies put into place when oil companies suffered from extremely low oil prices. Once on the books, they lived on forever.

In practice, MLPs pay their investors through quarterly distributions. Typically, the higher the quarterly distributions paid to LP unit holders, the higher the management fee paid to the general partner. The idea is that the GP has an incentive to try to boost distributions through pursuing income-accretive acquisitions and organic growth projects.

Because MLPs are partnerships, they avoid the corporate income tax, on both a state and federal basis. Instead of getting a form 1099-DIV and the end of the year, you receive a form K-1, which your accountant should know how to handle.

Additionally, the limited partner (investor) may also record a pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation on his or her own tax forms to reduce liability. This is the primary benefit of MLPs and gives MLPs relatively cheap funding costs.

The tax implications of MLPs for individual investors are complex. The distributions are taxed at the marginal rate of the partner, unlike dividends from qualified stock corporations. On the other hand, there is no advantage to claiming the pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation (see above) when held in a tax-deferred account, like an IRA or 401k. To encourage tax-deferred investors, many MLP?s set up corporation holding companies of LP claims which can issue common equity.

The popularity of MLP?s has caused a huge inflow of capital, which has caused yields to crash, from 25% during the dark days of 2009, to an average of 6.7% today. Still, yield starved investors threw money at MLP?s with both hands last year, an eye popping $11.9 billion, according to figures from the tracking firm, Morningstar.

As yields have plunged, risks have risen. In February, Houston based Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP), out of the blue, dramatically cut its payout to investors. A panic ensued, chopping 62% off the value of the shares in the following weeks. No doubt, increased competition for pipelines from railroads was a factor.

To protect yourself you must go to the website and read the prospectus before sending a check to an MLP. Unfortunately, these are so complex that even degrees in securities and tax law might not be enough to help you. What do you do instead? Pray, as seems to be the strategy of most individual investors.

At the end of the day, oil has a big influence on MLP prices. So the antics of Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine are probably a welcome development for MLP holders, as it has helped boost the price of Texas tea from $91 to $105 since the beginning of 2014.

However, get a real recession, and one will be overdue in a couple of years, and the price of oil will collapse once again, causing MLP?s to revisit those subterranean 2009 lows. Mothballed drilling rigs and rusting pipelines don?t produce lease payments or pay dividends. These are the risks you are being paid to take with a double-digit yield.

The lesson here is ?be nimble, or die".

MLP Chart

WTIC 4-11-14

LINE 4-11-14You Want This One

 

BWP 4-11-14Not This One

 

PipelineHow Long Will the MLP Run Continue?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Pipeline.jpg 282 442 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:04:322014-04-15 01:04:32How Long Will the Run in Master Limited Partnerships Continue?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Piling on the Shorts Again

Newsletter

This is a bet that the S&P 500 does not rocket to a new all time high by the May 16, 2014 expiration.

The news flow this morning is giving us an opportunity to re enter the short positions that I covered on Friday. Half of the opening 80-point pop in the Dow came from Citibank (C), which surprised to the upside with its Q1 earnings report.

We also got March retail sales +1.1%, better than expected.

We are down only 4.1% in this pullback, not even matching the 6% January dump, and we have clearly not suffered enough for our IPO sins. An eroding quantitative easing from Janet Yellen?s Federal Reserve is clearly taking a toll.

This rally could continue for a day or two more. But it has been so difficult to get short positions off in this correction that I don?t mind erring on the side of being a little early. The reversals ambush you at openings you can?t trade, and take no prisoners. We will probably get our reward on Friday in the next weekend flight to safety.

It is only because implied volatilities are so elevated that I can get this position so far out of the money off so richly, with only 23 trading days left until the May 16 expiration. The spring swoon has sent put prices through the roof, as panicking institutions rush to buy downside insurance a little too late.

Charts and technical analysis are far more useful and important in falling markets than rising one, as the downside crowd is far more dependent on this dismal science.

The fact that these charts are breaking down across markets on increasing volume is terrible news.

A sector rotation out of aggressive technology (XLK), financial (XLF), and discretionary stocks (XLY) into defensive consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) is a further complicating factor that is making matters worse.
During economic slowdowns, consumers postpone purchases of new iPhones and cars. They don?t for toilet paper and electricity.

Ten year Treasury yields approaching a five-month low is another nail in the coffin. Banks are falling because of the rocketing bond market, which is flattening the yield curve to the topography of Kansas, hurting profits.

All that is needed is a match to ignite a broader, more vicious selloff and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a whole box of them!

1,760 in the S&P 500, here we come, the 200-day moving average!

Keep in mind that fast markets, such as the one we have, I can get you only ballpark prices at best. It?s every man for himself. Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition.

 

$SPX 4-11-14+

INDU 4-11-14

$SPX 4-11-14 b

TNX 4-11-14

Burning Building

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg 308 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:03:202014-04-15 01:03:20Piling on the Shorts Again
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 15, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Real Estate is the new gold. It is the gold of 2014,? said Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline Capital.

Gold House

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Gold-House.jpg 282 295 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:02:552014-04-15 01:02:55April 15, 2014 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) April 14, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Further Update to: Trade Alert -(SPY)

Buy the S&P 500 (SPY) May, 2014 $188-$191 in-the-money bear put spread at $2.43 or best

Opening Trade

4-14-2014

expiration date: May 16, 2014

Portfolio weighting: 30%

Number of Contracts: 125

This is a bet that the S&P 500 does not rocket to a new all time high by the May 16, 2014 expiration.

The news flow this morning is giving us an opportunity to re enter the short positions that I covered on Friday. Half of the opening 80-point pop in the Dow came from Citibank (C), which surprised to the upside with its Q1 earnings report.

We also got March retail sales +1.1%, better than expected.

We are down only 4.1% in this pullback, not even matching the 6% January dump, and we have clearly not suffered enough for our IPO sins. An eroding quantitative easing from Janet Yellen?s Federal Reserve is clearly taking a toll.

This rally could continue for a day or two more. But it has been so difficult to get short positions off in this correction that I don?t mind erring on the side of being a little early. The reversals ambush you at openings you can?t trade, and take no prisoners. We will probably get our reward on Friday in the next weekend flight to safety.

It is only because implied volatilities are so elevated that I can get this position so far out of the money off so richly, with only 23 trading days left until the May 16 expiration. The spring swoon has sent put prices through the roof, as panicking institutions rush to buy downside insurance a little too late.

Charts and technical analysis are far more useful and important in falling markets than rising one, as the downside crowd is far more dependent on this dismal science.

The fact that these charts are breaking down across markets on increasing volume is terrible news.

A sector rotation out of aggressive technology (XLK), financial (XLF), and discretionary stocks (XLY) into defensive consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) is a further complicating factor that is making matters worse.

Ten year Treasury yields approaching a five-month low is another nail in the coffin.

All that is needed is a match to ignite a broader, more vicious selloff and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a whole box of them!

1,760 in the S&P 500, here we come, the 200-day moving average!

Keep in mind that fast markets, such as the one we have, I can get you only ballpark prices at best. It?s every man for himself. Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices only. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 125 May, 2014 (SPY) $191 puts at?????$8.58

Sell short 125 May, 2014 (SPY) $188 puts at..??.$6.15
Net Cost:????????????????.....$2.43

Profit at expiration: $3.00 - $2.43 = $0.57

(125 X 100 X $0.57) = $7,125 or 7.13% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.

SPY 4-14-14

$SPX 4-11-14+

INDU 4-11-14

$SPX 4-11-14 b

TNX 4-11-14

Burning Building

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg 308 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 12:11:022014-04-14 12:11:02Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) April 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) April 14, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 10:21:502014-04-14 10:21:50Trade Alert - (SPY) April 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 14, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 14, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 7 ROME, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(CASHING IN ON MY SHORTS),
(VXX), (VIX), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (QQQ),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(WHERE IS THE MARKET BOTTOM?),
(SPY), (QQQ)

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:07:492014-04-14 01:07:49April 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cashing in on My Shorts

Newsletter

Take the easy money and run. No one every got fired for taking a profit. That?s the mood I was in when I came in and saw my long volatility ETF (VXX) spiking and my short in the S&P 500 (SPY) cratering. I sent out Trade Alerts immediately that took my model-trading portfolio into a rare 100% cash position.

The Volatility Index (VIX) is up a breakneck 35% in a week, while the ETF (VXX) has tacked on 11%. You don?t get such heart palpitating moves like this very often, especially when they are all going in your favor.

It helped that Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, rushed the chart below to me right after the opening showing that the NASDAQ 100, the chief whipping boy in this selloff, is becoming severely oversold and fast approaching a major area of support (the lime green line). Bonds (TLT) are stalling at $110.60, and the ?RISK OFF? move in the Japanese yen (FXY) is approaching the upper limit of its 2014 range.

This all adds up to the possibility that another one of those ?rip your face off? short covering rallies could be near.

The rule in this type of market is to take the quick profits. You especially want to date, and not marry, the (VXX), since the contango over time can cost you your shirt.

Trading on the short side is a totally different animal than traditional long side plays. It is much harder work, as shorts behave totally differently than longs. The movie is on fast forward and you must act quickly.

To be up 15.45% so far in 2014, a down year when most investors are tearing their hair out, and up a meteoric 7.89% in April, is nothing less than heroic. Eight out of my last ten Trade Alerts have been profitable. The email plaudits have already started pouring in. Now all your friends at the country club can hate you, but only if you followed my advice.

Let me tell you what I did right this week, so you can take a page from the playbook of the master.

1) I kept the positions small, so I could sleep at night
2) I did the hard trade, selling when everyone else loved this market
3) I took trading profits quickly
4) I ignored the talking heads on TV so I wouldn?t puke out at the bottom
5) I didn?t take the Princess cruise from San Francisco to Los Angeles, where 50 passengers and 25 crew came down with norovirus. Imagine getting sick before your get to Mexico.

Is it possible that I am improving with age? That I?m becoming a better trader as I get older? That the payoff for a 45-year accumulation of market experience keeps increasing? What a concept!

I don?t think this correction is over. Vladimir Putin can drop a bombshell on the markets at any time. We are going into the traditional May-October ?RISK OFF? seasonal with markets still very near all time highs. The midterm elections in November are introducing a new level of uncertainty. The IPO bubble continues unabated (there are seven today!), and will only end in tears.

And who knows when another cruise ship is going to come down with norovirus?

But nothing moves in a straight line. It?s time to move to the sidelines so I can reload on the short side after the next short covering rally exhausts itself.

As for me, I am going to spend the rest of the day writing checks to the US Treasury to pay taxes for myself, the numerous entities I control, and a gaggle of impoverished relatives. All American tax returns are due on Tuesday.

Then I?m going down to Union Square in San Francisco and buy myself a new Brioni pin stripe suit, another pair of Bruno Magli alligator skin shoes, and have a kir royal at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel, thankful for my good fortune that I can pay all these bills.

VIX 4-11-14

VXX 4-11-14

SPY 4-11-14

USA 4-11-14

FXY 4-11-14

TLT 4-11-14

Burning Building

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg 308 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:05:442014-04-14 01:05:44Cashing in on My Shorts
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Testimonials

?Great trading!?

Judd
Chicago, IL

John Thomas

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/John-Thomas2.jpg 298 358 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:04:222014-04-14 01:04:22Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Where?s This Market Bottom?

Newsletter

After yesterday?s 267 point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 4.2% from its late March peak. It looks like the ?Sell in May? crowd, of which I was one, is having the last laugh after all.

Is this a modest 5% correction in a continuing bull market? Or is it the beginning of a Harry Dent style crash to (SPX) 300 (click here for the interview on Hedge Fund Radio http://madhedgefundradio.com/radio-show/ )? Let?s go to the videotape.

This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the top of the dotcom boom in 2000 and the pinnacle of the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience.

In fact three weeks ago, we were at a real risk of a major melt up if Vladimir Putin hadn?t come along. So the modest selling we have seen so far has been welcome, even by the bulls.

There is still an excellent chance the current decline will be nothing more than a pit stop on the way to new highs, as long as WW III doesn?t break out. Institutional weightings in equities are low, compared to 20 years ago. Individuals have yet to really dip their toes in stocks, still scared by the events of 2008-09. It seems that everyone in the world is overweight bonds.

In recent days, the ten-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to 2.62% a mere 35 basis points over the S&P 500 yield ratio at 2.27%. With a price/earnings multiple of 15.5 times this years earnings, we are bang in the middle of a long time historic range of 10-22.

Zero overnight interest rates argue that we should be at the top end of that range. The argument that the ?Buy the Dip? crowd is still lurking under the market is real, just a little further than the recent dips allowed.

So how much lower do we have to go? The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:

6-3.2%% - 1,839 was the 50 day moving average, and we decisively broke through that yesterday. The augurs for more weakness to come.

-8.4% - 1,740 is the 200 day moving average and could be our next sop

-16.8 ? 1,580 is the breakout from the double top that extends all the way back to 1999

To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the ?Lead Contract.? There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says ?Jump,? and we ask ?How High?? It is also always changing.

Right now, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is the lead contract. Every flight from risk during the past two years has been preceded by falling technology stocks. If you want to get a preview of each day?s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in Tokyo, as I often do.

You might even learn a word or two of Japanese, which will come in handy when ordering in the better New York sushi shops.

SPX 4-4-14The Best Case

 

$SPX 4-4-14The Worst Case

 

Girl with Chopsticks

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Girl-with-Chopsticks.jpg 406 273 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:03:582014-04-14 01:03:58Where?s This Market Bottom?
Page 6 of 13«‹45678›»

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