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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 30, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 30, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FAREWELL TO QUANTITATIVE EASING),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (FXY), (YCS),
(LNG), (BIDU), (TSLA),
(BAC), (MS), (GS), (AXP),
(AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III),
(CONNECTING UP AMERICA)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
American Express Company (AXP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-10-30 01:06:402014-10-30 01:06:40October 30, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Farewell to Quantitative Easing

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Finally, at long last, after infinite amounts of speculation and false starts, the Federal Reserve has decided to end quantitative easing.

After five years of soaking up both public and private debt in the marketplace, some $4.5 trillion worth, America?s central bank will quit picking up paper sometime next month. The printing presses are getting turned off and put into cold storage, job well done.

Boy, that was one hell of a monetary stimulus program, the likes of which has not been seen since the Great Depression. So much money flooded into the economy that homes values doubled on the bottom, stock indexes tripled, enriching quite a few traders along the way, including many followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

Who ended up making most of the money? Risk takers, equity owners, and the 1%. Everyone else was left in the dust, still waiting for the economic recovery to begin.

Since the controversial program was dreamed up and implemented by the former Fed governor, Ben Bernanke, five years ago, some $12 trillion was added to the value of equities alone. Some of my picks, like Cheniere Energy (LNG), Baidu (BIDU), ad Tesla (TSLA) soared by nearly 20 times.

Conservatives hated QE, fearing that such easy money would lead to hyperinflation and the collapse of the US dollar. The only problem is that the Consumer Price Index didn?t get the memo, with deflation now the country?s greatest economic threat. As I write this, the greenback is tickling new multiyear highs.

What QE did do was pull the US away from the brink of complete economic collapse. As far as the Fed is concerned, mission accomplished.

The other message that emanated from the Fed today is that it may raise interest rates sooner than expected. That trashed the bond market, taking Treasury bond yields to 2.35%, off an amazing 40 basis points from the low only two weeks ago.

There are some important points to take here for our trading strategy going forward.

First of all, the final top in bonds is looking more convincing by the day.

Second, the top in bonds, and slightly hawkish tone taken by the Fed today are extremely positive for the banks. I have already loaded up followers with Bank of America (BAC), which just pierced $17 on the upside and appears poised to claim new highs for the year.

I am inclined to add to this position on dips, and expand to my exposure to other names. On the menu are Morgan Stanley (MS), Golden Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and American Express (AXP).

The dollar rocketed. Those who followed my recent Trade Alerts to aggressively sell short the Euro (FXE), (EUO) and the yen (FXY), (YCS) were sent laughing all the way to the bank.

I spoke to my colleague after the close today, ace Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker. We concluded that if the market doesn?t show any weakness Thursday morning, we could continue a straight line run up into the month end book closing on Friday, and then on to new all time highs.

I know it?s not gentlemanly to say ?I told you so,? but I told you so.

If you are bemoaning the loss of quantitative easing, don?t worry, it may not be gone for long.

When the economy goes into the tank in two or three years, it may well return from the dead in all its glory, especially if the inflation rate peaks in this cycle at an Appalachian 2.5% and then heads for negative numbers.

 

Assets Fed Reserve

Percentage Fed Assets

S&P 500

Mortgage Rate

DraculaWill Quantitative Easing Return From the Dead?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Dracula-e1414680764804.jpg 235 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-10-30 01:05:532014-10-30 01:05:53Farewell to Quantitative Easing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Evening With James Baker III

Diary, Newsletter

?We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don?t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we?re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they?re already aimed at you.? That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan?s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush?s Secretary of State.

At the same time we should be talking to the regime in Tehran, while doing everything we can to support the reformers, tighten sanctions, and enlist Europe?s help. Baker does not see a military solution in Iran, even though their potential to create instability in the region is enormous. This was one of dozens of amazing insights I gained chatting with the wily Texas lawyer during an evening in San Francisco.

Baker is happy to take on the ?America Bashers?, pointing out that the US still plays a dominant role in the UN, NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank. It accounts for 25% of global GDP, and its military is unmatched. The US spread globalization, and the spectacular growth of China and India is largely the result of open American trade policies, raising standards of living globally.

But the US can?t take its leadership role for granted. The biggest threats to American dominance are the runaway borrowing and entitlements. US debt to GDP will soar to over 100% in the near future, the highest level since WWII. This is unsustainable, is certain to bring a return of inflation, and unless dealt with, will lead to a long term American decline on the world stage.

Massive trade and capital flow imbalances also have to be addressed. The 84-year-old ex-Marine, who confesses to being the only Treasury Secretary in history who never took an economics class, believes that the advantageous rates that the government now borrows at are not set in stone.

Baker is the man who engineered an end to the cold war with a whimper, and not a bang. He thinks that ?even our power has its limits,? and that there is a risk of strategic overreach.? With the US politically evenly divided, Congress has degenerated from debating teams into execution squads, and consensus is impossible. The media are partly to blame, especially bloggers who propagate wild conspiracy theories, as confrontation sells better than accommodation.

Regarding the financial crisis, we need to end ?too big to fail? and embark on re-regulation, not strangulation. All in all, it was a fascinating few hours spent with a piece of living history who still maintains his excellent contacts in the diplomatic and intelligence communities.

James Baker

Atomic Bomb

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Connecting Up America

Diary, Newsletter

Until now, the country?s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky-high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas.

A group of power companies is now building the $1 billion Tres Amigas superstation in Clovis, New Mexico that would connect all three grids. The plant would use advanced superconducting technology that will send five gigawatts of power down cables cooled at 300 degrees below zero. Construction is expected to reach completion in 2014.

The facility would solve a major headache of alternative energy planners, and will no doubt accelerate development. It would allow the enormous wind farms in the Lone Star State to ship energy to the power hungry coasts. Ditto for the mega solar projects proposed in the Southwest deserts, and the big geothermal plants being built in Nevada. With the Department of Energy having already sent tidal waves of government cash towards the sector, the timing couldn?t be better.

Tres Amigas

Solar Panels

Windmill

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2014 - MDT - The Late Show

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - #2 (FXE) October 29, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) October 29, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-10-29 11:47:102014-10-29 11:47:10Trade Alert - (SPY) October 29, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - FXE October 29, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-10-29 11:40:062014-10-29 11:40:06Trade Alert - FXE October 29, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-10-29 09:45:002014-10-29 09:45:00October 29, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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