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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 8, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Few people think more than two or three times a year; I have made an international reputation for myself by thinking once or twice a week,? said the Irish Nobel Prize winning playwright and cofounder of the London School of Economics, George Bernard Shaw.

George Bernard Shaw

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 7, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 10:48:172014-07-07 10:48:17July 7, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 7, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 7, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE TIME TO DUMP THE EURO IS HERE),
(FXE), (EUO), (UUP),

(TAKING PROFITS ON CATERPILLAR), (CAT)

?CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:23:112014-07-07 09:23:11July 7, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Time to Dump the Euro is Here

Newsletter

The blockbuster nonfarm payroll on Friday, coming in at a heady 288,000 has certainly removed any doubt that the US economy will reaccelerate in the fall. Earlier months were substantially revised up.

Monthly job growth of 200,000 plus now seems to be the new norm, after five consecutive months of such prints.

The headline unemployment rate plunged to 6.1%, a new six year low. American H2 GDP growth of 4% or more now seems to be firmly back on the table.

The gob smacking data has left many hedge fund managers confused, befuddled, and questioning the meaning of life. Loads have been playing the short bond, short equity trade all year, to the unmitigated grief of their investors.

Is smart now the new dumb?

As for me, I have been on the long equity side for almost the entire year, except for a few fleeting moments of mental degradation here and there. After spending most of June unwinding a sizeable US equity position into the rally, I now have little choice but to slap some new positions back on.

Still, there is a way to stay invested in the market and sleep at night. That is to focus on sectors and companies that, so far, have been left at the station during the 2014 bull market.

This is why I charged into a long in General Motors (GM) on Friday, the stock, until now, weighed down by past management?s unfortunate proclivity for killing off their customers.

The housing stocks (ITB), inhabitants of the doghouse for the past year, also look pretty interesting here. May pending home sales came in at a robust 6.1%, the best in four years, while pending home sales (contracts signed) leapt a positively eye popping 18.1%, a six year apex.

Revival of a moribund housing market is another piece of the puzzle that gets us to 4% GDP growth this year.

Bonds seemed to sniff out the great things coming by rolling over two days ahead of the June payroll news, diving some two points. Did they have advance notice, or are bond guys just smarter than we dullards in the equity world (true!)?

Rising US interest rates, a byproduct of a strengthening economy, will certainly lead to one thing: a more virile Uncle Buck and a sagging Euro. Interest rate differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange movements.

So, you always want to be long the currency with rising rates (ours), and short the one with falling rates (theirs). So I am happy to sell short the beleaguered European currency here.

We saw the multi month selloff in the Euro going into the European Central Bank?s announcement of interest rate cuts and quantitative easing last month. Since then we have seen a classic ?buy the rumor, sell the news? short covering rally that has taken the euro up a counterintuitive two points.

The second move is just about to run out of steam.

Weakening data from the European economy, which is trailing that of the US, Japan, Australia, and even China, suggests that the Euro zone will see more easing before it experiences a tightening.

In proposing the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread, I have been devious in the selection of my strikes. The near $136 put strike that I am shorting here against the long $138 put is exactly 50% of the move down from the double top at the March and May highs.

It also helps that the (FXE) was firmly rejected from the 50 day moving average on the charts.

We are getting a further assist from the calendar, which is giving us an unusually short monthly expiration on August 15. Most of Europe will be closed until then, not a bad time to be short Euro volatility.

I was also in a rush to get these out before the long July 4 weekend sucks out what little premium is left in the options market.

For those who don?t have options coursing through their veins, the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO) makes an ideal second choice. This 2X leveraged fund rises when the Euro falls, not by two times, but enough to make it worth the trouble. Or you can just sell short the 1X Currency Shares Euro Trust ETF (FXE).

Finally, if you are looking for another way to slumber like a baby with your long equity position, you can use a short position in the Euro to partially hedge your stock portfolio as well. US stock market weakness generally triggers a strong dollar and a weak Euro, as financial assets rush into a flight to safety mode.

EMPLOY 6-1-14

FXE 7-2-14

EUO 7-2-14

USD 7-2-14

BurgersThe Time to Dump the Euro is Here

 

GM 7-3-14

Euro SymbolThe Time to Dump the Euro is Here

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Euro-Symbol.jpg 306 329 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:22:002014-07-07 09:22:00The Time to Dump the Euro is Here
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Taking Profits on Caterpillar

Diary, Newsletter

So, I?m sitting here in my Turkish redoubt, fighting off unusually aggressive flies and going over my charts. It?s further proof that no matter where in the world you travel, work follows you.

There is truly no rest for the wicked.

As a respite, I have the Best of the Guess Who playing on iTunes.

I noticed that the market priced our Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bull call spread at $2.50 at last night?s close. This is despite the options still having ten days left to the July 18 expiration. This means that the market is effectively pricing the inverse, the Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bear put spread at zero.

It?s not just Caterpillar that is doing this. I see this happening across the market, where downside protection is being thrown away for nothing. I see anomalies like this happening from time to time, but not very often. Think of it as complacency in the extreme, on adrenaline and with a turbocharger.

It always ends in tears, but who knows when? I priced the alert at $2.48 just to allow two cents for you to get an execution done. This should add 1.04% to your total return for 2014. If some high frequency dummy is willing to work for pennies, that?s fine with me. Nobody works for free.

If you don?t get done today, then re-enter the order on Monday. You will almost certainly get taken out after they remove the long weekend time decay.

Taking profits here does give you some black swan protection. We could have a flash crash at any time, if not in the main market, then certainly in single names. It also removes a 9/11 type risk. Sure, you say, this is all very improbable. But then, 9/11 was viewed as an impossibility on 9/10.

This has been a bang up trade for us in an otherwise detestable trading environment. We caught a nearly 10% rise in the shares in a market that was otherwise quiescent. I managed to do this with a half dozen other names as well.

It?s not that I have suddenly fallen out of love with the maker of heavy construction and mining equipment. I think (CAT) will continue to appreciate for the rest of 2014, possibly rising to $120-$130/share.

I have been following this company for 40 years and it is one of the most solid, best-managed companies out there. And I love their cool, yellow baseball caps.

(CAT) has finally crossed the wide desert and will continue from strength to strength (there goes those Middle East metaphors again!). And if China manages to engineer a recovery, then it will be really off to the races. So will the rest of the entire industrials sector for that matter.

The other problem with taking off a trade here is that there is nothing to replace it. Zero premiums mean there is not another risk-controlled position to replace the outgoing (CAT) position.

So don?t expect a lot of joy from me on the Trade Alert front until August.

I always take this as an invitation to say, ?Thank you very much, Mr. Market? and take a profit. It is also a sign of how far volatility has fallen, and by implication, option premiums.

(CAT) 7-2-14

Caterpillar TractorThank you, Mr. Caterpillar!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Caterpillar-Tractor.jpg 295 494 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:21:402014-07-07 09:21:40Taking Profits on Caterpillar
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 4, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the nose,? said former heavyweight champion, Mike Tyson.

Boxers-Fights-Mike Tyson

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Boxers-Fights-Mike-Tyson.jpg 210 299 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 01:02:182014-07-07 01:02:18July 4, 2014 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 4, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 4, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(PRESIDENT HILLARY AND THE MARKETS),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-04 01:05:442014-07-04 01:05:44July 4, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Markets and President Hillary

Diary, Newsletter

Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today.

You don?t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, triggering a 10% market correction.

By the way, that was the last 10% correction we got. It has been straight up from there.

If you have any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the slam-dunk winner in 2016, take a look at the table below. According to a poll conducted by Quinnpiac University in New Haven, Connecticut, the former Secretary of State beats every Republic front-runner in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, often by huge margins.

Notice that the more conservative the candidate, the bigger the losing margin. I have always believed that the United States is a fundamentally moderate, middle of the road country.

Whenever either party leans towards extremes, they are sent to the woodshed, where they are punished severely by the voters. At the end of the day, most Americans just wish that the government would go away.

In another poll I saw Clinton is leading by 60%-40% with Republican women. Democrats are counting on many to cross party lines to vote for the first woman president, as they did for the first black one in 2008. Most other leading, non-partisan polls are reaching the same conclusion.

You can forget about Senator Ted Cruz from Texas because he was born in Canada, with a Canadian father. After carping about Obama being from Kenya for eight years, the last thing the Republicans will do is run another foreigner for president.

So what will President Hillary mean for the market? There?s no point in asking her. Officially, she is not even running yet. She is on the lecture circuit now earning $225,000 a pop. But I have been in touch with some of her recent and past staff people, and the answer seems to be not much.

With our Middle Eastern wars done, Al Qaida a distant memory, the economy going great guns, unemployment down, and the US energy independent, Clinton should inherit a country that is in pretty good shape.

With the economy reaccelerating back to a 3%-4% growth rate, and no new wars, the budget should be close to balancing. The dollar will be endemically strong.

We should be at the threshold of a Pax Americana. In these goldilocks conditions stock portfolios should rise by 10% a year, and 13% with dividends, and inflation will stay under control. Bonds will slowly grind down and interest rates up, but no by much. That works for me.

So, social issues will be the top legislative priority. You can expect to hear a lot about gun control. Assault rifles, especially military ones like the AR-15, and high capacity magazines will become history. You can also count on federal restrictions on the resale of firearms and closer tracking of convicted criminals.

Immigration will be another hot button item. Expect measures to permit the 10 million illegals currently in the country to gain access to citizenship, subject to strict conditions. This is the umpteenth time we have done this in my lifetime.

Clinton will also make an effort to roll back restrictions on voter?s rights now rampant in red states. Ten-hour lines to vote in black neighborhoods in Miami should become a thing of the past. The same will hold true for state restrictions on abortion, such as mandatory ultrasounds.

President Obama did the heavy lifting with financial regulation through Dodd-Frank and with health care in the Affordable Care Act. It will be up to Hillary to implement and enforce existing law, a far easier task. Who knows? The website might even be working by 2016?

The same will be true with tax reform. Obama delivered the big hit when the federal income tax rate jumped from 35% to 39.50%. Clinton will probably only nibble at the edges. It will be hands off for the middle class.

Target number one: the ?carried interest? treatment that assures that most hedge fund managers, like me, pay no more than a 15% annual rate. Capital gains could also see another 5% move.

But with the federal budget balancing, there shouldn?t be any need to raise taxes, unless you want to pay off the $17.5 trillion national debt faster. In any case, that will happen by 2030 under current law, and with improved growth outlook.

Big earners can expect to see their favorite deductions whittled back as well. Home mortgage interest deductibility will get capped at mortgage values of $250,000-$500,000. Limits will be placed on tax-free charitable donations. Company provided health insurance will become fully taxable as regular income, and will eventually get blended in with Obamacare.

The really big impact President Clinton will have on the future of the country will be with her Supreme Court appointments. It is likely that at least one conservative justice will retire or die before the end of her second term in 2024.

That will enable her to shift the 5-4 convective majority to a liberal one for the first time in 50 years. That assures a liberal bent in the Court?s decisions until 2064. After that, I will be long dead, or 112, so I won?t care what happens.

A rapid succession of legal challenges will follow that will eventually bring to an end of gerrymandering of congressional elections and anonymous corporate campaign donations. That will turn Texas, Arizona and several other states into blue ones. Gay rights will reach full equality, if it hasn?t already happened by then.

This has already happened in California. What was the outcome? Radicals on both the right and left were abandoned in droves, as there was no longer any mileage there. Everyone suddenly became a moderate and pragmatist. Gridlock ended, and the government returned to doing the people?s work. Ratings on cable TV talk shows fell.

Who will Hillary bring into her cabinet? I suggest former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, as the next Secretary of Health and Social Services. He is the only person who has every gotten government provided health care to work in the US, with his highly successful Massachusetts program.

I think it will take ten years to fully implement Obamacare and for it to become actuarially sound. In the end, Obamacare should cost the government nothing, and reduce the cost of health care for the rest of us. That?s how the Lloyds of London insurance exchange functions. A private equity guy should be able to deliver that, right?

So who will be Hillary?s first appointment to the Supreme Court? President Obama will be only 55 when his second term ends and is a constitutional law professor with a proven track record. The kids are already placed in local schools. The only thing he will be need is a new residence. What else is an ex president supposed to do?

The bigger question will be what to do about Bill? Will he be the first husband, the dude, or just another Mr. President.

Mr. and Mrs. President? The possibilities boggle the mind.

Poll

2012 Pres Election Results MapLooking for a Replay

 

Hillary ClintonAre You Ready for President Hillary?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Testimonials

Please pass along my deep gratitude for the work that both John Thomas and

Jim Parker do for us.? Each of their daily posts?are invaluable. I sincerely hope that they?will be blessed and refreshed this holiday season.

In appreciation;

Rene
Mortlach, Saskatchewan, Canada

John Thomas

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 3, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-03 10:43:432014-07-03 10:43:43July 3, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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