Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (HOW TO LOSE MONEY), (LINE), (USO), (THE MARKET?S TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IS TERRIBLE), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (T), (AA), (FXY), (TESTIMONIAL)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) United States Oil ETF (USO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) AT&T, Inc. (T) Alcoa Inc. (AA) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
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I?m really glad I watched the Super Bowl yesterday. Not only was it a great warm-up for next year?s championship game, which will be in my hometown of San Francisco. I also witnessed the worst coaching call in football history.
The Seattle Seahawks had the game in the bag. All they had to do was move the ball one foot over two tries at the goal line. Instead, they passed? Too bad I wasn?t able to find a bookie to take a last minute six-figure bet. I expected New England to win.
I have to tell you that I sympathize with Seahawks Coach Peter Carroll. For I sent out one of the worst recommendations in trading history with my BUY of master limited partnership Linn Energy (LINE) on December 1.
I then proceeded to break every rule in the trader?s handbook on how to manage this position. The errors were so many that I have to list them:
1) I scored the instant profit I was looking for, making 80 basis points within two days. I didn?t take it. Instead I got greedy, hanging on for more. It never showed.
2) I then ignored my own stop loss at $15, even though most of you bailed out then and there.
3) I then committed anther sin, waiting for the units to get back to my cost to get out, even though I constantly admonish followers never to do this. The market doesn?t care what your cost is. The market is the market. It has zero memory, and could care less who you are.
4) There were several substantial rallies that I could have sold into for a much smaller loss, to $14.80, $11.90 and $11.70. I didn?t. The ?getting out for even? syndrome strikes again.
5) I expected oil to bottom out in the low $60?s, which was much lower than most people?s targets. It didn?t. Instead, it dropped another $20 to the $43 handle. Once there is a glut of oil, there is no place to put it, as all storage is full, so it always plunges lower than you expect. With more oil industry experience than most traders, I already knew this. But I ignored the writing on the wall.
6) I waited for a yearend short covering rally to take me out of the position. It never showed. Instead, it went down faster, hitting a new five year low of $9.30.
7) I waited for a New Year rally to take me out. Ditto.
At this point, (LINN) is acting like a classic busted stock. Even though oil has bounced back by a hefty 15% in recent days, (LINN) has barely moved. If you throw good news on a stock and it doesn?t move, it is time to say hasta la vista baby.
For more depth on the grim outlook for Texas tea, please read my recent piece, ?More Pain to Come in Oil? by clicking here. Now is not the time to maintain an aggressive long in energy.
I?m sure (LINN) will come back some day, as it is well managed. In fact, it might even be the big trade of the year. But this could happen in months, or even years. And if you haven?t noticed, the name of this service is the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, not the Diary of a Mad Long Term Investor.
Where I live, long-term is a long-winded way of saying "wrong".
Can I Interest You in Some Linn Energy?
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At yesterday morning?s opening bell, we were greeted with the unmistakable evidence the stock market is technically breaking down.
The Dow Average has broken its three-year upward sloping trend line. Market leading sectors, like Consumer Discretionary and Financials have all put in eminently convincing ?Head and Shoulders? tops (click here). More distressingly, the head and shoulders for lead sector Technology has already broken down. Check out all the charts below.
I quickly ran my expiration P&L this morning. I figured out that if I sold all my longs for small profits (SPY), (IWM), and kept all my short positions (FXY), (T), (AA), I would be up 4.43% year to date by mid February, which in this environment is nothing less than heroic. The exception to the analysis is my sale of Linn Energy (LINE), which will be the subject of my next piece.
For more detail on why this is happening, read today?s letter, ?The Great American Rot is Ending? by clicking here).
Time to Bail
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Really enjoyed the Chicago lunch with you, Jim and the guys from Toronto. My trading improved just from the two-hour lunch seminar. Looking forward to coming in the spring if you do another Chicago lunch.
Thanks,
Rich Detroit, Michigan
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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Featured Trade: (THE GREAT AMERICAN ROT IS ENDING), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (FXE), (USO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) United States Oil ETF (USO)
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