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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2015 - MDT - Coast to Coast

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-03 15:03:512015-02-03 15:03:51February 3, 2015 - MDT - Coast to Coast
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 3, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(HOW TO LOSE MONEY),
(LINE), (USO),
(THE MARKET?S TECHNICAL OUTLOOK IS TERRIBLE),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (T), (AA), (FXY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
United States Oil ETF (USO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
AT&T, Inc. (T)
Alcoa Inc. (AA)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-03 01:07:242015-02-03 01:07:24February 3, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Lose Money

Diary, Newsletter

I?m really glad I watched the Super Bowl yesterday. Not only was it a great warm-up for next year?s championship game, which will be in my hometown of San Francisco. I also witnessed the worst coaching call in football history.

The Seattle Seahawks had the game in the bag. All they had to do was move the ball one foot over two tries at the goal line. Instead, they passed? Too bad I wasn?t able to find a bookie to take a last minute six-figure bet. I expected New England to win.

I have to tell you that I sympathize with Seahawks Coach Peter Carroll. For I sent out one of the worst recommendations in trading history with my BUY of master limited partnership Linn Energy (LINE) on December 1.

I then proceeded to break every rule in the trader?s handbook on how to manage this position. The errors were so many that I have to list them:

1) I scored the instant profit I was looking for, making 80 basis points within two days. I didn?t take it. Instead I got greedy, hanging on for more. It never showed.

2) I then ignored my own stop loss at $15, even though most of you bailed out then and there.

3) I then committed anther sin, waiting for the units to get back to my cost to get out, even though I constantly admonish followers never to do this. The market doesn?t care what your cost is. The market is the market. It has zero memory, and could care less who you are.

4) There were several substantial rallies that I could have sold into for a much smaller loss, to $14.80, $11.90 and $11.70. I didn?t. The ?getting out for even? syndrome strikes again.

5) I expected oil to bottom out in the low $60?s, which was much lower than most people?s targets. It didn?t. Instead, it dropped another $20 to the $43 handle. Once there is a glut of oil, there is no place to put it, as all storage is full, so it always plunges lower than you expect. With more oil industry experience than most traders, I already knew this. But I ignored the writing on the wall.

6) I waited for a yearend short covering rally to take me out of the position. It never showed. Instead, it went down faster, hitting a new five year low of $9.30.

7) I waited for a New Year rally to take me out. Ditto.

At this point, (LINN) is acting like a classic busted stock. Even though oil has bounced back by a hefty 15% in recent days, (LINN) has barely moved. If you throw good news on a stock and it doesn?t move, it is time to say hasta la vista baby.

For more depth on the grim outlook for Texas tea, please read my recent piece, ?More Pain to Come in Oil? by clicking here. Now is not the time to maintain an aggressive long in energy.

I?m sure (LINN) will come back some day, as it is well managed. In fact, it might even be the big trade of the year. But this could happen in months, or even years. And if you haven?t noticed, the name of this service is the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, not the Diary of a Mad Long Term Investor.

Where I live, long-term is a long-winded way of saying "wrong".

LINE 2-2-15

WTIC 1-30-15

USO 2-2-15

Pete CarrollCan I Interest You in Some Linn Energy?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Pete-Carroll-e1422911237298.jpg 400 279 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-03 01:05:132015-02-03 01:05:13How to Lose Money
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market?s Technical Outlook is Terrible

Diary, Newsletter

At yesterday morning?s opening bell, we were greeted with the unmistakable evidence the stock market is technically breaking down.

The Dow Average has broken its three-year upward sloping trend line. Market leading sectors, like Consumer Discretionary and Financials have all put in eminently convincing ?Head and Shoulders? tops (click here). More distressingly, the head and shoulders for lead sector Technology has already broken down. Check out all the charts below.

I quickly ran my expiration P&L this morning. I figured out that if I sold all my longs for small profits (SPY), (IWM), and kept all my short positions (FXY), (T), (AA), I would be up 4.43% year to date by mid February, which in this environment is nothing less than heroic. The exception to the analysis is my sale of Linn Energy (LINE), which will be the subject of my next piece.

For more detail on why this is happening, read today?s letter, ?The Great American Rot is Ending? by clicking here).

 

SPY 2-2-15

DIA 2-2-15

RSP 2-2-15

XLY 2-2-15

RYT 2-2-15

PSCF 2-2-15

VIX 2-2-15

SkydiverTime to Bail

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Really enjoyed the Chicago lunch with you, Jim and the guys from Toronto. My trading improved just from the two-hour lunch seminar. Looking forward to coming in the spring if you do another Chicago lunch.

Thanks,

Rich
Detroit, Michigan

John Thomas

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (LINE) February 2, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Pete-Carroll-e1422911237298.jpg 400 279 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-02 16:11:512015-02-02 16:11:51Follow Up to Trade Alert - (LINE) February 2, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) February 2, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Skydiver-e1422906198890.jpg 253 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-02 14:49:342015-02-02 14:49:34Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) February 2, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (LINN) February 2, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-02 10:31:532015-02-02 10:31:53Trade Alert - (LINN) February 2, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (IWM) February 2, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-02 10:15:462015-02-02 10:15:46Trade Alert - (IWM) February 2, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) February 2, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-02 10:00:002015-02-02 10:00:00Trade Alert - (SPY) February 2, 2015
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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