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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 16, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-16 09:12:432015-12-16 09:12:43December 16, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 16, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 16, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SETTING UP THE ?BUY? FOR JUNK BONDS),
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG),
(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),
(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),
(TESTIMONIAL)

ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-16 01:09:422015-12-16 01:09:42December 16, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Diary, Newsletter

Probably the best Trade Alert of 2015 that I wrote up, but never sent out, was for the ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). That is a bet that makes money when the prices for junk bonds fall.

Back in May, it was clear to me that junk bond prices had hit ?LALA land.? Yields were only 200 basis points above similar maturity Treasury bonds.

Risk was being wildly mispriced. Investors were taking on a whole lot of principal risk, but were barely compensated for it.

It was a classic reach for yield. This only ends in tears.

The reason I didn?t pull the trigger is that when you sell short any kind of bond or equity, you become liable for paying the interest or the dividend. In the high yield junk realm at the time, that meant forking out 5% per annum.

That?s a big nut to cover in order to make a profit. To end up in the green on a position like this, your timing has to be perfect. Paying that kind of carry, you pretty much want prices to stat falling immediately.

As it turned out, holding firm at the time was the right thing to do. While I nailed the high for the year, Junk bonds (HYG), (JNK) declined, but not by much. Then in August, they fell like a ton of bricks.

Here we are seven months later in a completely different world.

All of the trades that prospered mightily from quantitative easing are being unwound in a hurry.

It seems like investors are only just waking up to the implications of the demise of an aggressive monetary policy that met its demise 14 months ago. It?s a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have bolted.

However, it took this week?s imminent interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve to really bring matters to a head.

Junk bonds are now yielding 9.0%, while energy related paper is well into double digits. The talk is that as many as 25% of energy junk bonds will default (click here for ?Here Comes the Final Bottom in Oil? ).

Two junk bond funds have gone under, refusing to honor redemption requests from owners. Prices are in free fall. It all has the flavor of a final capitulation.

Which means that I am finally stating to get interested in junk bonds.

This is the problem with this market. Junk bonds are the last holdout of old fashioned traders. No two issues look alike, so they can?t be commoditized. That means they can?t be subject to automated online trading. High frequency traders never touch them.

If you want to trade in junk bonds, you have to call around to other traders and investors and ask if they have any interest. You keep calling until you find someone willing to take the other side of your trade.

Needless to say, this is a tedious and time-consuming process. It is a lot like the trading world I first joined in the 1970?s.

Another problem is that Dodd Frank has banned the big banks and brokers from taking positions in this paper like they used to. That means there is no final supplier of liquidity, so it is worse than it has ever been.

It is a good rule of thumb that the junk bond yield roughly reflects the market?s default expectations. So the present 9% yield means investors expect approximately 9% of the paper to default.

And here is where you make the money.

Markets tend to wildly overshoot with their expectations. In 2009 junk bonds carried a 25% yield. The actual default rate that followed was only 2%.

Markets then spent five year repricing this reality into these securities. As a result, junk bonds were one of the best investments you could have made back then.

They were the subject of regular strong ?BUY? recommendations by the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. They eventually more than doubled in value. That?s a lot for a bond.

While today?s 9% is nowhere near 25%, we are also in nothing like a 2009 financial collapse. Call the current volatility a correction, a bout of nervousness, a setback, or even a frisson. End of the world stuff it isn?t.

Which leads me to believe that at 9%, you are being fairly compensated for your risk.

You wanted to reach for yield? Now there is some yield to reach for.

9% covers a multitude of sins.

SJB 12-15-15

HYG 12-15-15

JNK 12-15-15

Car-JunkIs It Time to Put Junk Bonds on You Shopping List?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Car-Junk.jpg 225 322 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-16 01:08:512015-12-16 01:08:51Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I would like to express how much I enjoy reading your newsletter and the global views that I gain from it.?

It has been the best, by far, and the most financially worthwhile letter I have ever bought.? I find most newsletters spin and promote their returns during the good times, and never factor in or disclose their bad times.

I have had some bad trades with you, but the results from the good trades far outnumber them.? I do take positions based on your recommendations and have done very well.?

My portfolio has grown by over $1 million from shorting the yen, since late November, based on your calls. That is with no more than $200,000 invested in yen shorts at any one time. This has been far and away the single best trade of my life!

Thank you very much! May we all have many more of these!!

Thanks John,

Rob
Calgary, Alberta, Canada

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 16, 2015 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Every Napoleon meets his Watergate,? said Yogi Berra, former manager of the New York Yankees.

Napoleon

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Napoleon-e1431023864518.jpg 227 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-16 01:05:102015-12-16 01:05:10December 16, 2015 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (XIV) December 15, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-15 10:28:532015-12-15 10:28:53Trade Alert - (XIV) December 15, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 15, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-15 09:20:302015-12-15 09:20:30December 15, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 15, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 15, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THREE CHEERS FOR GERMANY),
(EWG), (HEDJ), (EUO), (FXE),
(TESTIMONIAL)

iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-15 01:09:582015-12-15 01:09:58December 15, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Three Cheers for Germany

Diary, Newsletter

I noticed last week that Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, was picked by the editors of Time Magazine as their ?Person of the Year.?

This is creating an outstanding investment opportunity, a real game changer. As a result, Germany?s economy could grow by an extra 1% a year. But more on that later.

She received the accolade for convincing her country to accept 1 million refugees from the Middle East. They will be plopped down in the middle of a population of 80.6 million, so it is a very big deal.

That is like the US taking in 4 million refugees with no notice. The most we took in after the collapse of Vietnam was 125,000.

In addition, she talked her electorate into bailing out Greece, not once, but twice.

I SAY ?THREE CHEERS? FOR GERMANY.

History has really come full circle. After bearing the cross for the holocaust for seven decades, the country carries out one of the greatest humanitarian acts of all time.

I know the Germans well.

I lived in West Berlin during the 1960?s with a former Nazi family. Needless to say, the dinner conversations were interesting. But they loved Americans, for it was we who rescued them from the Russians and Bolshevism in 1945.

I spent my weekends smuggling western newspapers and US dollars into East Berlin to the underground across Checkpoint Charlie. I was too young and dumb to know any better.

When I got caught, I spent a night in a communist jail cell. To this day, the words ?Das ist Verboten? still send a chill down my back. The East German Volkspolizei were not very nice guys.

If you want to see a close approximation of that prison, go watch the just released Stephen Spielberg movie ?Bridge of Spies,? about the Gary Powers exchange. They really nailed the Cold War atmosphere of Berlin during the sixties.

Yes, when I was 16, I used to listen to machine guns mow down fleeing refugees at night. Every time a guard hit someone, they were awarded a gold watch. I lived in Tiergarten, within easy earshot of the Berlin Wall at Brandenburg Gate. And you wonder why I?m such a tough guy.

Angela Merkel has always been an enigma to me. Those of us who know the old East Germany well, find it difficult to imagine anyone intelligent or useful coming from there. To see her leading an essentially conservative country is positively mind blowing.

She is clearly brilliant, with a PhD in physics. She is fluent in Russian, and is in close communication with Vladimir Putin on a regular basis in his own language. She entered politics as soon as the wall came down in 1989, signing up with the conservative Christian Democratic Union.

Today, she is widely considered the de facto leader of Europe. She is also regarded as the most powerful woman in history (at least for another year).

Full Disclosure: During my annual European sojourns, I always spend a day briefing Merkel?s staff in Berlin about the current state of the world. I also attempt to decode the American political scene, which Europeans find an indecipherable mystery, but which has enormous implications for them.

?The Person of the Year? can be a dubious honor, and is defined as the person who most influenced history that year. Aviation pioneer Charles Lindbergh, who first soloed the Atlantic Ocean, was originally picked by Time in 1927.

Adolph Hitler was named in 1938 for peacefully redrawing the map of Europe. The only other Germans so named were Konrad Adenauer in 1953, the country?s postwar leader, and Willy Brandt in 1970, noted for normalizing relations with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

To say that Germany is overwhelmed by the immigrant crisis would be a severe understatement.

Almost every high school gym in the country has been converted to emergency housing. There are shortages of everything, from blankets to clothing and translators.

Medieval Afghan men are showing up with 13-year old brides. The backlash is that the Nazi party is experiencing a resurgence of popularity, not only in Germany, also in the Netherlands, France, and Sweden.

If it weren?t for the commitments of this newsletter, I would be back in Berlin in a heartbeat volunteering my services.

Needless to say, the bill for all of this will be enormous. Germany is really the only country that could afford dispensing so much aid.

One of the reasons it can do so is that it happens to have a spare country at hand. Much of the old East Germany is still empty, its cities depopulated. This is where the new immigrants will eventually be settled.

It is perhaps because Angela is a mathematician that she understands there is an enormous long-term dividend that the country will reap.

Look at the economic growth rates of the US and Europe for the past 50 years, and the continent has always lagged the US by 1% per annum. By opening up the gates to a flood of immigration, Germany can make up this difference. So can the rest of Europe.

The great thing for Germany is that these are not your ordinary political or economic refugees. Much of the Syrian middle class has decamped, bringing their educational and professional skills with them. For the Germans, it is a win-win.

This is not a long-term thing. German GDP growth recently and unexpectedly surged, from a 0.3% to a +1.5% annual rate. Some of this is no doubt due to the European Central Bank?s newly aggressive policy of monetary easing. Massive spending on social services has to also be a factor.

European stocks are already poised to outperform American ones by two to one in 2016, thanks to quantitative easing, the postponement of the Greek crisis, and a generation low in asset prices there. Immigrants could pour the economic gasoline to the fire.

Clearly German stocks are a prime target here, which you can buy through the iShares Germany Fund (EWG), as is Europe in general, with the Wisdom Tree European Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ). But make sure you hedge out your European currency risk for the short term, as the (HEDJ) does.

A revival of the continental economy will also eventually engineer a recovery in the Euro (FXE), (EUO) against the dollar. Don?t press those shorts too aggressively down here.

The great irony here is that this is all unfolding in Germany while mosque burning and bombing are taking place across the US, and there is talk of closing its border on religious grounds.

It is the sort of thing that happened in Germany in 1938, as my former Berlin hosts would have reminded me.

History is coming full circle a second time.

HEDJ 12-11-15

EWG 12-11-15

Angela MerkelGood for You Angela

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Angela-Merkel-e1450127102498.jpg 400 319 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-12-15 01:07:092015-12-15 01:07:09Three Cheers for Germany
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I have been in the money management business working for a long time-only manager for 18 years, and in this business for 35.? I know you are the real deal.?

I also know many hedge fund managers. Besides Ken Griffin in Chicago at Citadel, who is up 16% year to date, very few are even up for the year.?

I believe in what you do.

Don
Cleveland, OH

John Thomas

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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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