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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Saturday, July 9, 2016 - Florence, Italy Global Strategy Luncheon

Italy, Lunch

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Florence, Italy on Saturday, July 9, 2016.

A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $227.

I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive five star hotel in the downtown area of the city, the location of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

Florence is one of those bucket list cities that everyone must visit once in their lives. I have been dropping by the Renaissance capitol since 1968.

Michelangelo?s statue of David, a true masterpiece, is a must see. The Galleria dell? Academia is one of the finest art museums in the world, as is the Uffizi Gallery.

The Duomo, the Cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore, is a highpoint of medieval architecture. The ancient Ponte Vecchio, the only bridge the Germans failed to blow up during WWII, is perfect for souvenir shopping, but watch out for pickpockets!

For my stay in Florence I have rented one of the city?s lesser palaces. You will find me in the mornings at the Piazza del Signoria sipping my double espressos and practicing my Italian with the locals. It?s amazing what you can learn! Ciao!

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.

Florence, Italy

Michelangelo's David

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Florence-Italy-e1464722069152.jpg 301 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 15:39:112016-05-31 15:39:11SOLD OUT - Saturday, July 9, 2016 - Florence, Italy Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Friday, July 22, 2016 - Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

Lunch, Switzerland

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 22, 2016.

The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $197.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The hotel is just down the street from the town?s beautiful 17th century church. The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Socks only are welcome, and if it?s cold, we will throw some extra wood on the fire.

Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired, but elated. He even gave me a valued pebble from the summit.

The Swiss National Day is on Monday, August 1 and Zermatters throw a blowout party to celebrate the event. Citizens converge on the village from all over Switzerland to participate in an hour long parade up the main cobblestoned street, dressed in traditional folk costume and playing mountain instruments.

The Bahnhofstrasse is packed with merchants offering national dishes, fine pastries and plenty of local beer and wine. We usually end up dancing a polka in front of the town church.

If you can still stand up, giant bonfires are lit on the surrounding mountain peaks at sunset, followed by an impressive fireworks display. For the last three years, a torrential downpour followed.

It is all a complete blast, so I attend every year.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

?

matterhorn-Copy2-1

?John Thomas

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/matterhorn-Copy2-1.jpg 300 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 14:44:012016-05-31 14:44:01SOLD OUT - Friday, July 22, 2016 - Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Thursday, July 7, 2016 - Dubrovnik, Croatia Global Strategy Luncheon

Croatia, Lunch

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Dubrovnik, Croatia, on Thursday, July 7, 2016.

A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $217.

I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive five star hotel, the location of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

Dubrovnik is the pearl of the Dalmatian Coast on the Adriatic Sea, and it?s a favorite yachting destination by vacationing continentals. It's white sand beaches and azure waters are legendary.

It was founded in the 7th Century by refugees fleeing the fall of the Roman Empire. At the height of its power in the 14th Century, it rivaled Venice for the domination of maritime trade in the Eastern Mediterranean. Today, it is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The last time I was there during the Yugoslavian civil war in the 1980?s, I was flying a humanitarian mission for the International Red Cross, delivering much-needed drugs to the beleaguered city.

On the way home, I got shot down by the Serbian Army. Fortunately, I managed to crash land my plane in the Austrian Alps and walk away.

While at the Tesla factory in June, amazingly, I ran across a couple of Austrian car dealers who still remember that frightful day.

This time around, I?ll spend my mornings writing deep research pieces for the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and the afternoons roasting on the beach. The evenings are reserved for dancing on the tables in the many local bars, celebrating life.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets to the luncheon, please click here.

Dubrovnik, Croatia

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Dubrovnik-Croatia-e1464716293259.jpg 224 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 13:57:422016-05-31 13:57:42SOLD OUT - Thursday, July 7, 2016 - Dubrovnik, Croatia Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - Basel, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon

Lunch, Switzerland

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Basel, Switzerland on Wednesday, July 27, 2016.

A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $257.

I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive five star hotel in the downtown area of the city, the location of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

Basel is the city in Northwestern Switzerland where the German, French, and Italian cultures meet.

The third largest city in the country, it has been a major trade center since the Renaissance. During the 20th Century, it became the capital of the global pharmaceuticals industry.

Much of the Altstadt, where I?ll be staying, dates back to the 15th century. Basel offers a wealth of museums and other cultural amenities. It is also the site of many international conferences.

I know Basel well from my days as a director of the former Swiss Bank Corporation (now a subsidiary of UBS).

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

 

Basel, Switzerland

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Basel-Switzerland-e1464709998437.jpg 223 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 12:15:082016-05-31 12:15:08SOLD OUT - Wednesday, July 27, 2016 - Basel, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) May 31, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 11:13:032016-05-31 11:13:03Trade Alert - (TLT) May 31, 2016
DougD

May 31, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-31 09:38:402016-05-31 09:38:40May 31, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

May 31, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 31, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHAT?S ON YOUR PLATE FOR THIS WEEK),
(SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (FXE), (USO), (GLD),
(THE TEN BAGGERS IN CYBER SECURITY),
(PANW), (FEYE), (HACK)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
United States Oil (USO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)
PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-31 01:08:492016-05-31 01:08:49May 31, 2016
DougD

What?s on Your Plate for This Week

Diary, Newsletter

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader closed out a blockbuster month in May, increasing customer assets by a lip smacking 3.93%.

The home runs were in short positions in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Japanese Yen (FXY), and the Euro (FXE), where we earned 10% to 16% a pop.

We even caught an overnight drop in the price of oil (USO) to pick up a few shekels on the short side.

We used the latest flip flop on Fed policy indicating a surprise tightening to stop out of our long gold trade, capping our losses in an asset class that was clearly rolling over.

You don?t want to be anywhere near the barbarous relic during a rising rate environment, no matter how brief it may be.

It should be a boring week of low volume summer trading, as traders sit on their hands awaiting this week?s big economic reports.

A further incentive to do nothing will be the dark cloud hanging over the upcoming June 14-15 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting.

A rate rise means ?RISK OFF?, while no action brings ?RISK ON?.

It?s going to be a fairly active week on the data front, despite the shortened four days.

Tuesday morning, the Case Shiller S&P 500 Home Price Index should show continued heady gains in residential real estate prices. Your home could become your top performing asset this year.

The next day, the Fed provides its Beige Book, which should confirm a slow reacceleration of economic growth from the Q1 mini recession. We already got the hint with Q1 GDP revised up on Friday from +0.50% to a still milquetoast +0.80%

Thursday, the weekly Jobless Claims should confirm figures close to 40 year lows. Everyone in the country who wants a job has one, except ?your cousin Milton, who never worked a day in his life.

On Friday, we get the big kahuna of the month, the May Nonfarm Payroll Report, which should show a steady 200,000 in monthly gains, keeping the headline unemployment rate to 5.0%. The U-6 structural long-term unemployment rate should continue its grind down into single digits.

As a result, near term trading opportunities may be few and far between. We may levitate at the top of the range for stocks all the way until mid-June, when the Fed shows its hand on its near term monetary policy.

If they don?t move, as I expect, risk assets everywhere will rally. But I don?t think we will break out to new all time highs until August or September. If they take action, risk assets will dive.

My former Berkeley economics professor, Janet Yellen, didn?t give us any help in her Harvard speech on Friday, essentially saying rates will rise somewhere, someday, and now you can all take off for the Hamptons.

Thanks a lot, Janet!

The one interesting thing she did say is that the Fed actually considered negative interest rates as a policy option. That means we?ll get them FOR SURE in the next recession three or four years down the road.

In any case, I plan to be well out of the market by June 13, taking profits on my remaining positions. Those include shorts in the (SPY) and the yen (FXY), and a long in the Treasury bond market (TLT). I?m deliberately keeping my book small, retaining lots of dry powder for better entry points.

When an upcoming event risk becomes too random, it is better to step out of the market and scale back your risk. Leave the coin tosses to the kids. The CNN Fear And Greed Index is screaming at you that new longs initiated here will end in tears.

If by chance we get the upside breakout now, let your few lucky friends who caught it pay for he next round of drinks. It is a low quality trade.

Sound like a good time to me for a vacation to me.

Ships Ahoy, and damn the torpedoes!

SPYTLTFXYGLD
John Thomas-breakfast
Fear & Greed

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Fear-Greed-e1464649450970.jpg 350 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-31 01:07:132016-05-31 01:07:13What?s on Your Plate for This Week
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Ten Baggers in Cyber Security

Diary, Newsletter

The threat to America?s national security does not come from ISIS, Iran, Russia, or China. It is an online hack attack.

That is the view of General Keith B. Alexander, who recently retired as the head of US Cyber Command after a lifetime in the intelligence business, the country?s principal online warrior.

I discovered a long time ago that a retired general can be one of the most valuable sources of information about long term capital market trends. After a career spent exercising discretion and keeping opinions to themselves, the dam breaks.

Sometimes, I am amazed at what I can pick up. Of course, it helps that my own top-secret clearance is still valid.

So when the chance arose to secretly meet Alexander at an undisclosed location, I jumped at it.

The general argues that the US is the preeminent online target because we have so much to lose. A concentrated attack could simultaneously cripple all communications, power supply, and financial markets. Life, as we know it, would completely grind to a halt.

The greatest cyber attacks are yet to come.

The US has no shortage of enemies on this front. Vladimir Putin is attempting to reassemble the old Soviet Union. Iran is engaged in numerous adventures throughout the Middle East. China is expanding its empire at every opportunity.

Alexander knows what he is talking about.

He is a recently retired four-star general who served as Director of the National Security Agency (DIRNSA), Chief of the Central Security Service (CHCSS) and Commander of the United States Cyber Command.

He graduated from West Point, Class of 1974, along with three other future four-star generals, including former CIA chief, David Petraeus, and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, whom I both know and have written about.

While head of Army Intelligence, he was in charge of 10,700 spies and eavesdroppers worldwide. He has three master?s degrees in business, physics, and systems technology.

A lightweight, he is not.

Alexander expressed his concern that ISIS was using Facebook (FB) to build a global terrorist network. Google (GOOG) has lost $10 billion in revenues to cyber attacks.

The government?s controversial collection of meta-data, now at risk from the republican controlled congress, was instrumental in preventing a plot to blow up the New York subway system in 2009.

Coordination between federal agencies is still a major problem. When the NSA discovered that CIA computers may have been compromised, they asked to take a look. They were refused.

Finally, pressure from the president opened the doors. The NSA discovered 1,500 Russian malware programs on agency mainframes and they scrubbed them in only 22 hours.

Big data programs on US computers in Iraq were instrumental in identifying, locating, and destroying much of the leadership of Al Qaida.

Ironically, the US military has broken up more hack attacks against European targets than US ones, thanks to their weaker defenses.

And here is the part that always blows my mind. Military men are often clueless about the market implications of their own far reaching conclusions.

That is where I step in.

It looks like the cyber security sector, one of the best market performers during the first half of? 2015, is about to take off like a rocket once again. There could be another 20-30% in it this year.

We are only one hack attack away from another blockbuster rally.

The near destruction of Sony (SNE) by North Korean hackers in 2014 has certainly put the fear of God into corporate America. Apparently, they have no sense of humor whatsoever north of the 38th parallel.

As a result, there is a generational upgrade in cyber security underway, with many potential targets boosting spending by multiples.

Alexander suggested that the world will probably never again see large-scale armies fielded by major industrial nations. Wars of the future will be fought online, as they have been silently and invisibly over the past 15 years.

All of those trillions of dollars spent on big ticket, heavy metal weapons systems are pure pork designed by politicians to buy voters in marginal swing states.

The money would be far better spent where it is most needed, on the cyber warfare front. Alexander is not alone in these views among America?s senior military leadership.

The problem is that when wars become cheaper, you fight more of them, as is the case with online combat.

You probably don?t know this, but during the Bush administration, the Chinese military downloaded the entire contents of the Pentagon?s mainframe computers at least seven times.

This was a neat trick because these computers were in stand alone, siloed, electromagnetically shielded facilities not connected to the Internet in any way.

In the process, they obtained the designs of all of our most advanced weapons systems, including our best nukes. What have they done with this top-secret information?

Absolutely nothing.

Like many in senior levels of the US military, the Chinese have concluded that these weapons are a useless waste of valuable resources. Far better value-for-money are more hackers, coders, and servers, which the Chinese have pursued with a vengeance.

You have seen this in the substantial tightening up of the Chinese Internet through the deployment of the Great Firewall, which blocks local access to most foreign websites.

Try sending an email to someone in the middle Kingdom with a Gmail address. It is almost impossible. This is why Google (GOOG) closed their offices there years ago.

As a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff recently told me, ?The greatest threat to national defense is wasting money on national defense.?

Our nation?s military is clamoring for more money to take the cyber war to the enemy. Instead, they are effectively being given more horses, cavalry sabers, and cannon to fight it. No wonder they are eternally frustrated.

The implication is that I need to go out and buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW) once again, a company that I have been recommending since I started covering the industry a year ago. Since then, the shares have skyrocketed some 162%

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is an American network security company based in Santa Clara, California just across the water from my Bay Area office.

The company?s core products are advanced firewalls designed to provide network security, visibility and granular control of network activity based on application, user, and content identification.

Palo Alto Networks competes in the unified threat management and network security industry against Cisco (CSCO), FireEye (FEYE), Fortinet (FTNT), Check Point (CHKP), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Cyberoam, among others.

The really interesting thing about this industry is that there are no losers. That?s because companies are taking a layered approach to cyber security, parceling out contracts to many of the leading firms at once?looking to hedge their bets.

To say that top management has no idea what these products really do would be a huge understatement. Therefore, they buy all of them.

This makes a basket approach to the industry more feasible than usual. You can do this through buying the $435 million capitalized PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), which boasts Cyberark Software (CYBR), Infoblox (BLOX), and FireEye (FEYE) as its three largest positions. (HACK) has been a hedge fund favorite since the Sony attack.

For more information about (HACK), please click here: http://www.pureetfs.com/etfs/hack.html.

If you ar
e looking for value plays in this area, you can forget about it. Neither (PANW) nor (FEYE) generate any net earnings. Much as with Tesla (TSLA), you are not betting on what the earnings are today, but what they might be worth in a decade, when the market is infinitely larger.

Think of them as faith based investments.

Could the shares today?s crop of cyber security companies rise tenfold from here? Absolutely! Actually, ten might be a low number. If nothing else, the entire industry has become prime takeover bait, offering potential instant profits.

Oh, and by the way, Alexander thinks that drone surveillance of US citizens is coming in the near future. Look out above!

PANWFEYEHACK

 

General Keith B. Alexander

US Cyber Command Emblem

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/US-Cyber-Command-Emblem.jpg 302 303 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-31 01:06:342016-05-31 01:06:34The Ten Baggers in Cyber Security
DougD

May 30, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 30, 2016
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL MEMORIAL DAY ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-30 01:07:252016-05-30 01:07:25May 30, 2016
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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