When I spoke to a senior official at the Federal Reserve the other day, I couldn?t believe what I was hearing.
If the American economy moves into the next recession with interest rates already near zero, the markets will take the interest rates for all interest bearing securities well into negative numbers.
At that point, our central bank?s primary tool for stimulating US businesses will become utterly useless, ineffective, and impotent.
What else is in the tool bag?
How about large-scale purchases of Gold (GLD)?
You are probably as shocked as I am with this possibility. But there is a rock solid logic to the plan. As solid as the vault at Fort Knox.
The idea is to create asset price inflation that will spread to the rest of the economy. It already did this with great success from 2009-2014 with quantitative easing, whereby almost every class of debt securities were hoovered up by the government.
?QE on steroids?, to be implemented only after overnight rates go negative, would involve large scale purchases of not only gold, but stocks, government bonds, and exchange traded funds as well.
If you think I?ve been smoking California?s largest cash export (it?s not the sunshine), you would be in error. I should point out that the Japanese government is already pursuing QE to this extent, at least in terms of equity type investments.
And, as the history buff that I am, I can tell you that it has been done in the US as well, with tremendous results.
If you thought that president Obama had it rough when he came into office in 2009, it was nothing compared to what Franklin Delano Roosevelt inherited.
The country was in its fourth year of the Great Depression. US GDP had cratered by 43%, consumer prices crashed by 24%, the unemployment rate was 25%, and stock prices vaporized by 90%. Mass starvation loomed.
Drastic measures were called for.
FDR issued Executive Order 6102 banning private ownership of gold, ordering the public to sell their holding to the US Treasury at a lowly $20.67 an ounce.
He then urged Congress to pass the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which instantly revalued the government?s holdings at $35.00, an increase of 69.32%. These and other measures caused the value of America?s gold holdings to leap from $4 to $12 billion.
Since the US was still on the gold standard back then, this triggered an instant dollar devaluation of more than 50%. The high gold price sucked in massive amounts of the yellow metal from abroad creating, you guessed it, inflation.
The government then borrowed massively against this artificially created wealth to fund the landscape altering infrastructure projects of the New Deal.
It worked.
During the following three years, the GDP skyrocketed by 48%, inflation eked out a 2% gain, the unemployment rate dropped to 18%, and stocks jumped by 80%. Happy days were here again.
Monetary conditions are remarkably similar today to the those that prevailed during the last government gold buying binge.
There has been a de facto currency war underway since 2009. The Fed started it when it launched QE, and Japan, Europe, and China have followed. Blue-collar unemployment and underpayment is at a decades high. The need for a national infrastructure program is overwhelming.
However, in the 21st century version of such a gold policy, it is highly unlikely that we would see another gold ownership ban.
Instead, the Fed?s would most likely move into the physical gold market, sitting on the bid for years, much like it recently did in the Treasury bond market for five years. Gold prices would increase by a multiple of current levels.
It would then borrow against its new gold holdings, plus the 4,176 metric tonnes worth $200 billion at today?s market prices already sitting in Fort Knox, to fund a multi trillion dollar infrastructure-spending program.
Heaven knows we need it. Millions of blue-collar jobs would be created and inflation would come back from the dead.
Yes, this all sounds like a fantasy. But negative interest rates were considered an impossibility only two years ago.
The Fed?s move on gold would be only one aspect of a multi faceted package of desperate last ditch measures to resuscitate the economy which I outlined in a previous research piece (click here for ?What Happens When QE Fails? ).
That?s assuming the gold is still there. The door to the vault at Fort Knox has not been opened since September 23, 1974. Persistent urban legends and internet rumors claim that the vault is actually empty, or filled with fake steel bars painted gold.
We?ll never know for sure. Visitors are not allowed.
The Next Economic Stimulus Program?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-with-Gold-e1478998623625.jpg400400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-05-12 01:08:462016-05-12 01:08:46The Secret Fed Plan to Buy Gold
While winging my way across the South Pacific a few months ago, I spotted an unusual job offer:
WANTED: Social worker, tax free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient.
With the unemployment rate at 5.3%, and running as high as 45% for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were even advertising for such a job. Usually such plum positions get farmed out to a close relative of the hiring officials involved.
Intrigued, I read on.
To apply you first had to fly to Auckland, New Zealand, and then catch a flight to Tahiti. After that you must endure another long flight to the remote Gambler Island, and then charter a boat for a 36-hour voyage.
Once there, you had to row ashore to a hidden cove on the island, as there was no dock, or even a beach.
It turns out that the job of a lifetime is on remote Pitcairn Island, some 2,700 miles ENE of New Zealand, home to the modern decedents of the mutineers of the HMS Bounty.
History buffs will recall that in 1790, Fletcher Christian led a rebellion against the tyrannical Captain William Bligh, casting him adrift in a lifeboat.
He then kidnapped several Tahitian women and disappeared off the face of the earth. When he stumbled across Pitcairn, which was absent from contemporary charts, he burned the ship to avoid detection.
An off course British ship didn?t find the island until some 40 years later, only to find that Christian had been killed for his involvement in a love triangle decades earlier.
The job is not without its challenges. There is one doctor, and electric power is switched on only 10 hours a day. Supply ships visit every three months. The local language is a blend of 18th century English and Tahitian called Pitkern, for which there is no dictionary.
Previous workers have a history of going native. Oh, and 10% of the island?s 54 residents are registered sex offenders, due to its long history of incest.
The next time someone you know complains about being unable to find a job, just tell them they are not looking hard enough, and to brush up on their Pitkern.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Marlon-Brando.jpg360469Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-12 01:07:002016-05-12 01:07:00Who Says There Aren?t Any Jobs?
I've been reading your blog for a while and found it a helpful beacon in a sea of confusing and contradictory information as I try and make sense of the world (and try and make money from sense!).
Kind regards,
Toby London, England
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.Read more
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
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