I have been debating, arguing, and kibitzing with Harry S. Dent for nearly a decade.
You may know Harry as the cutting edge economic and demographics guru who's written many books on topics I have reviewed in past years (read more here for ?When the Demographics Tailwind Becomes a Headwind? .
Sometimes I agree with Harry.
Other times, I think he is out of his mind.
But whenever we butt heads, the outcome is always informative and entertaining, if not outrageous.
On Sunday night at 8:00 PM EST, I will be debating Harry live in a global webinar that will be broadcast live in 135 countries.
The event will be moderated by my friend, Greg Owen, in Sydney, Australia. Harry will be opining from Florida, while I?ll be refuting his opinions from San Francisco, California.
Some of the topics covered will include:
1) The likely outcome of the November 8th election and the possible outliers
2) The election impact on your retirement portfolio
3) The true causes of the divide currently afflicting the US
4) How new media enabled Donald Trump to shatter election conventions, and how Hillary Clinton counterattacked
5) The long term outlook for all asset classes
You can attend this fascinating, ground breaking global event for only US $75/AU $97.
Attendance is limited to only the first 1,000. Please click here to purchase a ticket.
It should be a real barnburner of a webinar.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-Thomas-Harry-Dent-e1477452680675.jpg301580DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-28 01:06:352016-10-28 01:06:35You Are Invited to Join the Great John Thomas-Harry Dent Debate
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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We?re only a few days away from the first ever debate between Harry Dent (world renowned economist and New York Times best selling author) and myself, titled:
This is your last chance to register, only a few places are left.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
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Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 18TH LAS VEGAS,? NV GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADING THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION), (SPY), (TLT), (UUP), (USO), (AAPL), (GLD), (THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) United States Oil (USO) Apple Inc. (AAPL) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
November 9th, the day after the presidential election, could prove the most challenging day to trade the markets in four years.
Stocks could explode higher, utterly collapse, do nothing, or do all three on the same day. This could be the preeminent whipsaw day of the decade, if not the century.
At the moment, the market has fully discounted a Clinton win, a Democratic capture of the Senate, and a marginal Republican win in the House of Representatives.
There are two possible scenarios here.
The ascendance of the pro globalization, pro infrastructure view could unleash tens of billions of dollars of new equity allocations that immediately take the major share indexes to new all time highs very quickly.
The major indexes could add 10% over the next six months.
The pro growth outcome would send the dollar (UUP), gold (GLD) and commodities (COPX) soaring, while bonds (TLT) may take a dump.
On the other hand, a Clinton win, the expected outcome, could also deliver a ?Buy the rumor, sell the news? type event.
That could trigger a quick 5% correction, and then a more prolonged grind up to new highs by yearend. We saw much the same in the wake of the Apple (AAPL) earnings release on Tuesday, October 25th.
So there you have it: up now, or up later.
That?s the easy part.
Let?s say Donald Trump wins, to which I assign a 1% probability. That would be an enormous surprise which markets hate.
Stocks markets (SPY) would focus on an immediate decline in international trade and a huge increase in budget deficits, and would probably open down 5%-10%.
Virtually all other asset classes will fall as well, thanks to an expected doubling of the national debt and slower global growth. Defense spending would also rise.
This is not expected, so Trump supporters should not hold their breath.
However, what if there is no definitive outcome on November 8th? What if the election is thrown into the courts as it was in 2000 regarding Bush vs. Gore.
Remember all that "hanging chad" counting in Florida? They didn?t get an election outcome until December.
Since the Senate blocked President Obama from appointing a Supreme Court justice, the august body is now split 4-4. So we won?t get any definitive rulings there.
A final decision may have to be rendered by the House of Representatives, in which the Republicans have a 30-seat majority. That would hand the election to Trump on a silver platter.
This is unprecedented in US history. Risk assets would take an extremely unfavorable view of such a development and most likely would send stocks into a bear market.
For this to happen the margin in a large state, like Florida, with 29 votes in the Electoral College, would be enough to swing the election outcome either way.
The margin would have to be only a few hundred votes, triggering multiple recounts and oceans of litigation.
Yes, it may all come down to Florida one more time. ? If you are a long term investor or financial advisor, which is most of you, it would probably be better to just not trade at all on November 9th.
Given the vast expanse of time, the impact on your portfolio should be minimal. It?s tough to beat the earnings power of American corporations for the long haul.
If your candidate won, go out and have a glass of champagne. If he lost, buy a bottle of cheap gin and finish it.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Vote-for-Me-Button-e1474334192792.jpg400388DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-27 01:07:312016-10-27 01:07:31Trading the Day After the Election
I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future.
There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products.
However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.
I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket in the mail. I didn?t recall finding a notice of violation tucked under my windshield wiper in the recent past, so I looked into it.
To my chagrin, I learned that the city is now outfitting its buses with video cameras pointing forward and sideways.
The digital recordings are then transmitted to parking control officers sitting behind computer screens for review.? They issue tickets, which are mailed to the registered owner of the vehicles.
San Francisco suffers from one of the worst parking nightmares in the country. The streets were never planned, they just sort of happened on their own during the frenzy of the 1849 gold rush.
They were built to handle the traffic of horses and carriages, and later cable cars, not the crush of traffic we have today.
Sky-high real estate prices have driven millions into the suburbs across the bridges over which they must commute. So parking has always been in short supply and it is very expensive. When I drive into the city for a Saturday night dinner, sometimes the parking tab is more expensive than the meal.
Newly minted millionaires from tech IPO?s are now buying vintage Victorian homes, and then retrofitting garages underneath them. Every time this is done, it eliminates another parking spot on the street to make room for the driveway.
So while the traffic is increasing, the number of parking spots is actually declining.
The city originally installed the cameras to catch offenders driving in bus lanes during rush hour. When they discovered that the cameras also captured the license plates of illegally parked cars they expanded the program. Last year 3,000 such tickets were issued.
The program has been so successful that the cash-strapped city will greatly expand it this year. And with a great San Francisco track record to point to, the firm selling the system is planning on going nationwide. Soon it will come to a city near you.
Like I said, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be.
Parking in San Francisco Can be Tight
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
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(YOU ARE INVITED TO JOIN THE GREAT JOHN THOMAS-HARRY DENT DEBATE), (IS RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TOPPING OUT?.OR NOT), ? (DHI), (LEN), (HD), (TPH), (AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)
DR Horton Inc. (DHI) Lennar Corporation (LEN) The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (TPH)
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