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DougD

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

John,

Thanks for the "Heads up" on Nvidia (NVDA).?

It took a little patience to bear with all that happened last week,?but you were spot on and my $70 call option paid off 100% for a sweet 10k profit in less than a few weeks.

Keep them coming John.? After seven years with your service, I rely on you to keep my retired wife in the style she has become accustomed to living.?

Life is good and so are you.

Kurt

Lincoln, California
John Thomas - Pilot

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/John-Thomas-Pilot-e1486696169397.jpg 301 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-17 01:06:572016-11-17 01:06:57Testimonial
DougD

November 16, 2016 - MDT Alert (FEYE)

MDT Alert
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-16 12:06:432016-11-16 12:06:43November 16, 2016 - MDT Alert (FEYE)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (VXX) November 16, 2016

Trade Alert

When a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to buy, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-16 10:20:482016-11-16 10:20:48Trade Alert - (VXX) November 16, 2016
DougD

November 16, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-16 09:19:412016-11-16 09:19:41November 16, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

November 16, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 16, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FAT LADY IS SINGING FOR THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (ELD), (MUB),
(IS USA, INC. A ?SELL?)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Lcl Dbt ETF (ELD)
iShares National Muni Bond (MUB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-16 01:08:002016-11-16 01:08:00November 16, 2016
DougD

The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market

Diary, Newsletter

You have just been adopted by a new rich uncle.

I doubled my short position in the US Treasury bond (TLT) market today.

Furthermore, I?ll be using any subsequent price rise to sell more bonds, roll forward put options and put spread option positions, sell short bond futures, and buy the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Treasury Bond Fund (TBT).

It is undoubtedly the cleanest trade out there in the world today.

Of all the momentous changes in the prospects for asset classes as a result of the presidential election, bonds absolutely top the list.

And not just US bonds, but German, Japanese, British, and every other kind of bond out there in the world as well are exiting a 30-year bull market and entering a 20-year bear market.

Fixed income instruments are totally toast for the next four and possibly eight years. Indeed, the list of reasons is so long that I?ll have to list them one by one.

1) The hallmark of Trump?s economic policy revealed so far is to lift the economy out of the mire by launching a massive round of deficit spending.

Independent analysis predicts that the US national debt could rise by as much as $10 trillion over the next decade.

That?s what a massive tax cutting, spending rises gets you.

Call it Reagan 2.0.

Even if the Federal Reserve does nothing, this unprecedented issuance of new government paper will crowd out private borrowers and drag interest rates upward, to the detriment of bond prices and borrowers everywhere.

2) The bond market was already in trouble well before the election. Prices peaked in July, and have been steadily eroding since. Every bond position I have strapped on since then has been from the short side.

This was because the world was assigning a growing probability of a Fed interest rate hike at their December 14th meeting. You could see this in the way bank shares traded which started moving off of multiyear bottoms during the same time period.

All the election did was pour gasoline on a small fire that was just starting to build.

3) After hiding in a deep cave for the past nine years, inflation is about to make a dramatic comeback. It was already starting to edge up with recent economic reports.

The October Nonfarm Payroll Report showed us that hourly earnings leapt by 2.9% YOY, while the headline U-6 structural unemployment plunged to only 9.5%.

And here is the problem. If you initiate a huge new jobs program with weekly jobless claims already at a 43-year low, wages will take off like a scalded chimp.

Oh, and by the way, wages are the largest component in any inflation calculation.

4) Years of zero, or subzero, interest rate policies from central banks around the world have created a substantial malinvestment bubble in all fixed income assets. As a result, the relative valuations have reached ludicrous levels.

The S&P 500 (SPY) is now trading at 18.5 times earnings, and possibly 17 times 2017 earnings. US Treasury bonds (TLT) at a 2.20% yield are trading at an amazing 45 times earnings.

Yes, the liquidity and risks are better for bonds, but they are not THAT much better.

This sets up the mother of all asset reallocations, out of the worst yielding financial instruments in the world into the best.

5) After spending 50 years in the financial markets, I can describe to you a problem that I have noticed from the very start. Institutional investors keep their foot firmly on the gas pedal while only looking in the rear view mirror.

Call it the herd instinct, safety in numbers, or lack of imagination, but portfolio managers, by definition, ALWAYS overweight the wrong asset classes at market tops, and underweight the right ones at market bottoms.

Making matters worse is the fact that these institutions move with the speed of molasses in the dead of a High Sierra winter. Some entertain changes in sector and asset weightings only once a quarter, while others do it annually.?

Yes, this means they can minimize tax bills. But it also assures that they are perpetually behind the curve. When the memo gets out and real changes DO occur, they unfold over years if not decades.

Every institution in the world is now overweight bonds and underweight stocks.

Guess what happens next?
tlt tbt eld mubinitial-jobless-claims

Not a Time to Launch a Jobless Plan

fat+lady+singsThe Fat Lady Is Singing

0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-16 01:07:292016-11-16 01:07:29The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 15, 2016

Trade Alert

When a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to buy, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-15 14:01:462016-11-15 14:01:46Trade Alert - (TLT) November 15, 2016
DougD

November 15, 2016 - MDT Alert (CERN)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 12:34:312016-11-15 12:34:31November 15, 2016 - MDT Alert (CERN)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (XLE)(XLK)(EWZ) November 15, 2016

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Portfolio-1-e1479229978982.jpg 541 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-15 12:20:312016-11-15 12:20:31MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (XLE)(XLK)(EWZ) November 15, 2016
DougD

November 15, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 09:23:172016-11-15 09:23:17November 15, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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