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DougD

November 15, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 15, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO JOIN THE NOVEMBER 18TH LAS VEGAS GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(NVIDIA REPORTS . . . STOCK ROCKS),
(NVDA),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN?T WORK)
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (VIX)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 01:10:472016-11-15 01:10:47November 15, 2016
DougD

Last Chance to Join the November 18th Las Vegas, NV Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Friday, November 18, 2016.

A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $212.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a top restaurant at a major Strip casino. The exact location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets, please click here.

Las Vegas

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Las-Vegas.jpg 330 238 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 01:09:512016-11-15 01:09:51Last Chance to Join the November 18th Las Vegas, NV Global Strategy Luncheon
DougD

Nvidia Reports . . . Stock Rocks

Diary, Newsletter

I really, really hope all of you read my report on Artificial Intelligence published on November 2nd, committed it to memory, and acted on its recommendations (click here for ?The Great Artificial Intelligence Stock Play You?ve Never Heard Of?).

For at the very end, it strongly recommended the shares of processor manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA), which occupies the nexus of the entire movement towards machine learning.

On Friday, Nvidia reported some of the most amazing earnings of the year, with the stock delivering a massive one day gain.

And Nvidia shares did this on a day when the entire rest of technology was taken out to the woodshed and beaten senseless.
?
Revenue leapt 54% to just over $2 billion, the first time Nvidia has posted a $2 billion quarter.

Its gross margin set a record at 59%, with a record 63% increase in gaming-derived revenue.

Nvidia?s dominance of the high-end GPU market is allowing it to soak up all of the spending that would normally have been at least somewhat split between itself and AMD.

Gaming was the big revenue booster for Nvidia.

Data center revenue grew by 59% as well, though this was much smaller in absolute terms ($230 million in data center sales versus over $1 billion in gaming revenue).

Jen-Hsun Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, noted that he saw strong growth in AI, though he opted not to break those figures out at this time.

Nvidia?s automotive program is also going well, with $127 million in revenue (a 61% increase year-on-year) and a 7% increase sequentially.

What Jen-Hsun talked about in the conference call is how Nvidia wants to build a computing platform that stretches from desktop GPUs, to cloud solutions like GRID, to automotive computing and self-driving cars.

It?s not that the rhetoric is different, but rather the fact that Nvidia is well on its way to accomplishing it.

These blew away even my own, wildly optimistic predictions.

Sales of Nvidia?s flagship product, the passively cooled 16GB Tesla P100 GPU, is being ravenously consumed by data centers around the country, and should grow by 95% during 2016, and another 50% in 2017.

Hold one of these dense, wicked fast processors in your hand and you possess nothing less than the future of western civilization.

Over the long term, the picture looks even better. It should continue with annual earnings growth of 20%-30% a year for the foreseeable future.

At a minimum, the shares have at least another double in them, and perhaps another double after that as well.

To learn more about Nvidia, please visit their website at http://www.nvidia.com/content/global/global.php .

Having said all that, I recommended to my concierge clients that they take profits on (NVDA) for the short term.

As much as I like the stock long term, in view of the presidential election result, it is clearly in the wrong sector at the wrong time.

Portfolio managers have been raiding their technology holdings since Wednesday, using them as an ATM, to pay for the newly discovered opportunities in financials, health care, construction, and industrials.

So better to get out of the way, and get back in when the sector has a tailwind, and not a gale force headwind, as it does now.

For those of you who did the trade, well done!
nvdanvidia-logonvidia-processor

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Nvidia-Logo-e1478041238279.jpg 254 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 01:08:102016-11-15 01:08:10Nvidia Reports . . . Stock Rocks
DougD

November 15, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?You want to rotate your money into the sectors where Donald Trump?s policies are potentially going to work: those are financials, health care, and industrials?. said Erin Browne, head of macro investing at UBS O?Connor.

Charlie Chaplin

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Charlie-Chaplin-e1479171394321.jpg 186 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-15 01:05:432016-11-15 01:05:43November 15, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 14, 2016

Trade Alert

When a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to buy, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-14 15:18:502016-11-14 15:18:50Trade Alert - (TLT) November 14, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) November 14, 2016

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/SPX-1-e1479148517690.jpg 278 580 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-14 13:39:012016-11-14 13:39:01MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) November 14, 2016
DougD

November 14, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-14 09:20:512016-11-14 09:20:51November 14, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

November 14, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 14, 2016
Fiat Lux

Special New World Order Issue

Featured Trade:
(TRUMP?S GIFT TO TRADERS),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (USO), (CAT),
?(X), (FCX), (BAC), (GS), (LEN), (ITB)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
United States Oil (USO)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
United States Steel Corp. (X)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
Lennar Corporation (LEN)
iShares US Home Construction (ITB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-14 01:07:252016-11-14 01:07:25November 14, 2016
DougD

Trump's Gift to Traders

Diary, Newsletter

In 50 years of trading, I have never seen markets turn on a dime as they did last week. As a result, they have created some of the best trading opportunities of the century.

The sector rotation has been fast and furious. And trading volumes across all asset classes exploded to their highest levels in years.

Of course, they were responding to the biggest election upset in history which flipped the direction of the global economy 180 degrees in a heartbeat.

I am suddenly reminded of economist John Maynard Keynes' famous quote: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir"?

My ancestors hailed from Missouri, before they moved to California during the 1849 gold rush. Their black and white tintypes adorn the walls of my Lake Tahoe estate.

Every time I cross Donner Pass on Interstate 80, I remember their gaunt grim faces.

And you know what the motto of the state Missouri is?

SHOW ME!

Incredible as it may seem, I am already in touch with several senior officials of the Trump administration, thanks to my ancient Wall Street ties.

That will give me an early read on which Trump policies are campaign fluff, which will be seriously watered down, and the few that will actually be implemented.

AS EVERYONE IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS KNOWS, THIS IT TRADING GOLD!

Early indications are that the incoming economic policies will be Reagan 2.0.

I remember well the jovial, backslapping president, who served from 1982-1990. I knew him too well for 25 years.

For three decades, he campaigned from the far right, championing McCarthyism, bemoaning Rowe versus Wade, demanding a balanced budget, and constantly warning of the communist threat.

The day he got into office he forgot all of this, negotiating huge arms reduction treaties with the Russians, and never lifting a finger to curtail women's rights.

We know how Reagan 1.0 ended. Thanks to large tax cuts and massive spending increases, the national debt skyrocketed 400%, from $1 trillion to $4 trillion. The bond market got killed.

And despite all his saber rattling on the campaign trail, Reagan never ensnared America in a single serious war.

Trump could well do the same. The big shock of the decade would be how fast Trump rushes to the middle.

But he has to "SHOW ME" first.

I am expecting a similar result with Reagan 2.0. Certainly the bond market thinks so, the ten-year Treasury yield adding a hair-raising 40 basis points in yield in a mere three days.

What we do know for sure is virtually the entire investment industry has been caught seriously wrong footed by the Trump win.

They were all, to a person, perfectly positioned for a Clinton win, and owned a heavily-weighted Clinton portfolio.

What they got was a Trump wild card.

IT WILL TAKE YEARS FOR INSTITUTIONS TO ROTATE SECTORS AND REPOSITION FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER.

THIS IS NOTHING LESS THAN THE GREATEST GIFT TO TRADERS OF ALL TIME.

There is one great structural tailwind to this unbelievable sector rotation.

It takes you out of over owned, expensive sectors close to all time highs, like technology, that have been leading the market for most of this decade.

It moves you into under owned, cheap sectors, such as financials, heath care, commodities, and energy, that have been despised for years .

That's fine with me. I was getting tired of chasing technology for small incremental gains at the risk of gigantic one-day crashes, some four in the last 15 months.

You can make a lot more money buying stocks off of five-year bottoms than seven-year tops.

Maybe I can squeeze a few thousands basis points of performance out in 2016?

I have presented four Emergency Strategy Webinars for major hedge funds, clients, and the Online Trader's Summit in as many days.

Financial advisors tell me they are finding the points contained enormously helpful in explaining the New World Order to their clients.

So I am giving them to you in full below:

THE NEW WORLD ORDER:

Control of the Presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Supreme Court mean the Republicans have a free hand

Republicans blocked fiscal spending for eight years, but will now move forward full steam ahead

$1 trillion in new infrastructure spending in the Midwest amounts to Quantitative Easing 5.0

Massive Keynesian stimulus could double US economic growth in the short term

Inflation will make an earlier return

It all adds up to a big RISK ON and BUY!

THE NEW BIG TRENDS:

OUT WITH THE NEW & IN WITH THE OLD

WINNERS:

Value
The Economy
Deregulation
Taxpayers
Domestic US Stocks
Defense Stocks
Inflation
Oil & Gas
Commodity Stocks
Bridges and Freeways
The Midwest Rust Belt
The US Dollar
Savers
Homeowners
Cheap Stocks

THE NEW STOCK PLAYS:

Get These Right and You'll Retire Early

Caterpillar (CAT) - Infrastructure
US Steel (X) - Infrastructure
Nucor (NUE) - Steel
Pfizer (PFE) - Big Pharma
Ely Lily (LLY) - Big Pharma
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Defense
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - Commodities
Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Big Oil
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - Energy
Bank of America (BAC) - Financials
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financials
Lennar Homes (LEN) - Homebuilding

caterpillar-equiptment


LOSERS:

Growth
Globalization
Regulation
Multinational Stocks
Telecom and Utilities
Emerging Markets
The Budget Deficit
Solar Energy
Bonds
Yield Plays
The Euro
The Japanese Yen
Borrowers
Renters
Expensive Stocks

THE OLD STOCK PLAYS:

Time to Say "Thank You Very Much" and Unload:

Alphabet (GOOG) - Technology
Apple (AAPL) - Technology
Facebook (FB) -Technology
Amazon (AMZN) - Technology
Tesl
a (TSLA) - Electric Cars
First Solar (FSLR) - Solar Panels
Sun Power (SPWR) - Solar Panels
General Motors (GM) - Globalization
AT&T (T) - Telecommunications
Mexico (EWW) - Mexico ETF
China (FXI) - China ETF
Euro (FXE) -  Euro ETF
Yen (FXY) - Yen ETF
Gold (GLD) -  Gold

Charlie Chaplin

THE BOND MARKET: THE FAT LADY IS SINGING:

Sell Short every Five Point Rally in the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) for the next Ten Years

Bonds are Toast

The first fiscal stimulus in eight years will pour $1 trillion into infrastructure spending

Taxes will be cut across the board, concentrated for the wealthy and business

Replenishing of the military adds further spending demands

All of this adds $10 trillion to the national debt in eight years

Throw in a new war and that doubles it to $20 trillion

Is a replay of the 400% rise in national debt under Reagan during 1982-1990, when Treasury bond yields hit 12%

Interest rates will rocket

Buy the Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT)

fat+lady+sings


FOREIGN CURRENCIES: DOLLAR RALLY CONTINUES

Rising interest rates have the US dollar rocketing against all other currencies

Interest rate differentials are the biggest driver of foreign exchange rates

Buy the US Dollar Index ETF (UUP), calls, call spreads, and futures on dips

Yen fundamentals are as bad as ever, the Japanese will be the last to raise interest rates, if ever, expect a long-term decline, sell short Japanese Yen Trust (FXY), or buy the Ultrashort Yen (YCS)

Future of Euro is dependent on whether or not the EC breaks up

ENERGY: THE DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

Stronger economy is oil positive

But a trade war with China, the world's largest new marginal consumer, could cause demand to slow there

Any run up to $60 will see new US fracking production pour into the market

Sell rallies up to $52, buy dips to $40

Tesla - 2

PRECIOUS METALS:  TRUMPED!

Spiking interest rates are hugely negative for gold (GLD)

Current selloff creates a great entry point for long term investors

When inflation really shows up, that is when you want to pile back into gold

China and emerging nations have to buy several thousand tonnes to bring their holdings up to western level

Should take prices from $1,250 to $5,000 an ounce in 15 years

John with Gold

REAL ESTATE: A 20-YEAR BOOM

Millennial demographic wave is about to drive US home prices northward for the next 20 years

Only 2.4 million homes are for sale, down -6.8% YOY, creating a severe shortage; normally, homes for sale rise in the fall which predicts a very hot market in the spring

US home building is proceeding at less than half the peaks seen in the 2000s, despite rapidly rising demand, creating a structural shortage

Home equity has been the top-performing, individually owned asset class for the past 5 years

All this makes homebuilders a big long term ?BUY?

johns-house


TRADE SHEET:? SO WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT ALL THIS?

Stocks- Buy
Bonds-Sell
Commodities-Buy
Currencies- Sell
Precious Metals ?Buy
Real Estate-Buy

gtd-total-performance-aar-37-18-11-14-16The Only Audited Trading Performance Online
?Average Annual Return +37.18%

weekly-jobless-claims

Major Stimulus with Jobless Claims at a 43-Year Low? Hugely Inflationary

cnbc-fear-greed-11-4-16

What a Difference a Day Makes!

cnbc-fear-greed-11-8-16
presidential-election-results

Oops!
x cat gs goog tsla tlt fxy uso gld
trump-pence
THE NEW WORLD ORDER

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Trump-Pence-e1479001844658.jpg 266 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-14 01:06:232018-04-27 19:52:33Trump's Gift to Traders
DougD

November 14, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Managing money is going to be fun over the next six months.? said Jeffrey Gundlach of Double Line, on the surprise Trump election win.

John with Beware of Bull Sign

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/John-with-Beware-of-Bull-Sign.jpg 465 462 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-14 01:05:102016-11-14 01:05:10November 14, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Page 17 of 134«‹1516171819›»

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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