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DougD

June 8, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 8, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JUNE 29 DUBLIN, IRELAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(AN AFTERNOON WITH GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-08 01:08:502016-06-08 01:08:50June 8, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Afternoon With California Governor Jerry Brown

Diary, Newsletter

On a recent trip to my lakefront estate at Lake Tahoe, I stopped off at the state capital, Sacramento, to look in on my old friend, Governor Jerry Brown.

It is crucial that readers across the country, and indeed, around the world, know what Jerry is thinking. California has always been a ?pathfinder? state, and what starts here is often adopted across the country. This little chat could be a hint of what?s headed your way.

As I bounded up the steps of the marble capitol building, the first thing I noticed was the absence of the previous governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger?s, smoking tent.

The "governator" had it erected on the lawn so he could enjoy long puffs on his stogies and not be in violation of the state ban on indoor smoking. After all, this was in the state that invented the anti-smoking movement.

I have trod a very long path with Jerry Brown. His dad, then Governor Pat Brown, ordered teargas dropped on me from a helicopter while I was at a Berkeley anti-war march nearly half a century ago.

He was Secretary of State while I attended the University of California, often going head to head against then governor Ronald Reagan.

I was living in Asia during his first two terms as governor from 1975-83, when his girlfriend, Linda Ronstadt, called him the ?moonbeam governor?, a nickname he has yet to live down.

Warning: don?t call him that to his face. He hates it.

I ran into him at the Democratic convention in New York in 1980 when he mounted his second run for the presidency. After he retired and was considered a political has-been, I bumped into Jerry once again when he studied Zen Buddhism in Japan.

In 1999, he was elected mayor of Oakland, a mostly black Bay Area slum near bankruptcy, which many considered ungovernable. He did a spectacular job, fighting corruption, rebuilding the school system, and sparking an economic renaissance. It was like he had nothing left to lose.

To the amazement of many, Jerry ran and won a third term as governor in 2011, taking over the wreckage left by the disastrous reign of Arnold Schwarzenegger. He has been raising eyebrows nationally ever since.

He immediately launched a crash campaign to raise taxes and cut spending. His Proposition 30 succeeded at the polls, raising sales taxes for everyone and boosting income taxes on those earning more than $500,000.

The Golden State now has the highest combined federal and state taxes in the country, at 51.5%, and more for millionaires. The proceeds of the tax hike are solely dedicated to increasing $6 billion in spending on education.

State leaders learned a long time ago that people will pay a premium to live here. They pay double for housing, so why not double taxes? The sunshine has monetary value.

As I explain to guests at my strategy luncheons, high earners don?t mind paying an extra dollar in tax when it means they can make an extra $10, or $100, in profits at their high tech companies.

That has been the case with a technology industry here that has been booming almost non-stop since WWII. That is, as long as the money isn?t wasted. Most consider more money for education a laudable use of funds, as it trains a more useful workforce for their own investments.

Brown originally studied at a seminary school to become a catholic priest. To this day, he frequently quotes from the Bible, and he gave my own Latin a real workout. Citing Luke, Chapter 12, verse 48 with regards to the sharing of the tax burden, ?to those who are given much, much is required.? The seven-year sunset provision for the new income tax also comes from the ?seven years of plenty?, found in the Old Testament.

He argues that this is only fair, since the top 1% of state earners have seen their income increase by 165% since 1980, while the bottom 80% have seen an 8% drop. The top 1% took 10% of state incomes in the seventies. Now it is 22%.

To say Jerry is iconoclastic is a disservice to the word. He is a combative 77 year old who says what he thinks at the drop of a hat, no matter whom it offends, be they friend or foe.

He is a mix that is all too rare in this country, a flaming liberal on social issues, while an ironclad conservative on fiscal matters. There used to be a lot of those. Now they are rare.

He is a staunch advocate for the environment. He appointed the first gay judge in the US. He is about to deliver the toughest anti-gun legislation in the country. He has been a lifelong cheerleader for the alternative energy industry.

Brown has also completed the most ambitious cuts in social spending in the state?s history, including grants for the disabled, child welfare, and Medical. Some 40,000 non-violent inmates were released from prisons into probation to save money.

The University of California saw its budget cut by a massive 25%. State employment was chopped by 50,000, and some 50 redundant state boards were eliminated.

Jerry told me that the state?s problems were caused by two bubbles; the internet in 2000, and the indiscriminate mortgage lending that followed.

That created a budget deficit that ballooned to $27 billion by the time he returned to office, which cut the California?s credit rating to the lowest of the 50 states.

In a short 18 months, Brown balanced the budget, and state debt is now rapidly seeing upgrades, reducing borrowing costs.

The governor says that the spending cuts have been very tough to swallow. Even the carpet in his office is falling apart, and he confesses to eating day old tuna sandwiches.

On the tax front, he says that ?when you have more in the cookie jar, you have more cookies to give.?

Jerry says his goals as governor were threefold. He eliminated false accounting gimmicks, which shuffled the state?s financial problems under that well-worn carpet, where they festered.

He only implemented new taxes if people voted for them. And he returned decision making to cities and counties on schools, because the entities closest to problems have the best ability to solve them, a policy he calls ?realignment?.

Decentralization and devolution of power to local authorities isn?t something you hear about from liberals very often.

He points out that the big growth in state spending didn?t arise from some idealistic social agenda. Three strikes laws mandating extremely long sentences caused an explosive growth of the prison system, which expanded from 3% to 11.5% of the state budget since the seventies. ?

An aging population is also prompting a substantial increase in medical spending. These two items alone account for the entire increase in state spending for the past 40 years on a GDP adjusted basis.

I asked Jerry what he thought about the efforts by other tax-free states, particularly Texas, to lure business away. He erupted into a tirade.

He argued passionately there was absolutely no evidence that people moved to avoid taxes, which amount to only a few thousand dollars a year for millionaires.

The economy here is booming. The best and the brightest minds in the world are pouring into the most creative and innovative place on the planet.

There have been 500,000 private sector jobs created during his current tenure. Exports are up 17%. The state draws 50% of global venture capital investment, and files for four times more patents than runner up New York. The one-ton truck now driving around Mars was built in Pasadena.

My obvious last question had to be ?what?s next? for the energetic governor. Might his tax raising, spending cutting habits have a national audience?

?Do I have more offices in mind? I?m not telling,? he answered, with a twinkle in his eye. That is a lot to say for someone who has already held every high office in his home state.

I got a call from my car telling me it was time to get moving if we were going to make it over Donner Pass before it iced up. I said, ?see you next time? to Jerry. There always seems to be a next time with Jerry.

 

Jerry Brown

Jerry Brown 2 ?What a Long, Strange Trip It?s Been.?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Jerry-Brown-2.jpg 274 569 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-08 01:06:332016-06-08 01:06:33An Afternoon With California Governor Jerry Brown
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 8, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?You are either looking out five days or five years in this market. You?re either a surfer or a yacht. There are no small boats anymore,? said Bob Iaccino, a trader at Yourtradingroom.com.

Surfer

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Surfer.jpg 225 339 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-08 01:05:392016-06-08 01:05:39June 8, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

June 7, 2016 - MDT Alert (ETE)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-07 12:38:542016-06-07 12:38:54June 7, 2016 - MDT Alert (ETE)
DougD

June 7, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-07 09:22:422016-06-07 09:22:42June 7, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

June 7, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 7, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:


(JUNE 8 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JUNE 20 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE MYSTERY OF THE SAN FRANCISCO SUBLEASE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-07 01:09:562016-06-07 01:09:56June 7, 2016
DougD

The Mystery of the San Francisco Sublease

Diary, Newsletter

Commercial real estate agents are baffled. Economists are confused. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is focusing a great deal of attention on the issue.

What the heck is going on with the San Francisco office subleasing market?

The question has taken on greater urgency in the wake of Friday?s abysmal nonfarm payroll report, which showed an increase of only 36,000. If no one is hiring anymore, companies certainly don?t need more office space.

When established businesses need new offices, they typically lease space in prime downtown areas. These normally take the form of a 5, 10, or 20-year lease, which the firms pay rent for on a monthly basis.

Only the wealthiest firms, like Apple (AAPL) and Oracle (ORCL) boast the cash flows that allow them the privilege of outright office ownership.

Traditionally, when companies expected the economy to slow down, they would sublease a portion of their existing space to cut costs.

When economies sped up again, they would take back their original space so they would have room to grow into.

What has analysts really scratching their heads these days is that the rate of subleasing has seen a dramatic increase in recent months. Does this mean that the economy is about to get better, worse, or neither?

Hence, the Fed?s intense interest.

I dove into the data with characteristic zeal, discovering that there is much more here than meets the eye.

It turns out that the new frenetic rate of subleasing is not an indicator of future economic activity. It is more a reflection of the structural changes besieging the US economy.

Deeper research revealed that the largest supplier of San Francisco office subleases was banker and securities broker Charles Schwab (click here for their site at https://www.schwab.com/?src=nay&sv1=dJ73RHPU_dc&sv2=73328918060&keyword=charles%20schwab&device=c&adposition=1t1&matchtype=e&network=g&devicemodel=&placement=? ).

It turns out that the entire industry is downsizing as rapidly as possible in order to cut costs. People are being replaced with machines, and machines don?t need expensive, glitzy offices on Montgomery Street, off of Union Square, or anyplace else where humans may proliferate.

Computers are much happier in giant server farms where rent and electric power are cheap, and where a small number of local techs can keep them running for pennies on the dollar.

I am thinking of The Dales, Oregon, Council Bluffs, Iowa, and Jackson County, Mississippi, where Google maintains three of its largest server farms (click here for a list of the rest at https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/inside/locations/index.html).

The shrinking of the financial industry is not only reflective of the price of office space.

It also explains why New York City, the center of the financial industry, has shown the slowest residential price appreciation since the 2012 bottom. Layoffs there in recent years have surpassed well over 200,000.

Who has been the biggest taker of new floor space in The City by the Bay?

That would be technology companies, which are far and away the fastest growers in the economy. This should be a sign of continued health of the American economy.

Yes, it would be fair to ask the question of the risks posed by 70 or so unicorn, fast growing tech companies that have yet to go public. The bloom here is clearly off the rose, with many getting slapped with lower valuations in the latest rounds of fund raising.

But unicorns rarely occupy prime or trophy office space. They are usually just one step out of a garage, to be found in cheaper ?B? and ?C? commercial office space.

No less a giant than ride sharing giant Uber, said to be worth $65 billion, just moved into an abandoned Sears department store in downtown, low rent Oakland, CA.

As is so often the case these days, traditional, historical data can be dangerous to follow, as it may have been rendered meaningless by our hyper evolving economy.

Look before you leap.

Google Global Server Farms

Global Google Server Farms

Home Price Appreciation

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Google-Global-Server-Farms-e1465252868404.jpg 345 580 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-07 01:06:092023-07-21 10:42:13The Mystery of the San Francisco Sublease
DougD

June 7, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?A part of me slipped away?, said former heavyweight boxing champion, George Foreman, when he heard of the death of Muhammad Ali.

Muhammad Ali

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Muhammad-Ali.jpg 241 362 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-07 01:05:292016-06-07 01:05:29June 7, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

June 6, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-06 09:14:002016-06-06 09:14:00June 6, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

June 6, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 6, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 27 BASEL, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WHAT?S ON YOUR PLATE FOR THIS WEEK),
(WHY THE ?UNDERGROUND? ECONOMY IS GROWING),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-06-06 01:09:132016-06-06 01:09:13June 6, 2016
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