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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Who Says There Aren?t Any Jobs?

Diary, Newsletter

While winging my way across the South Pacific a few months ago, I spotted an unusual job offer:

WANTED: Social worker, tax free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient.

With the unemployment rate at 5.3%, and running as high as 45% for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were even advertising for such a job. Usually such plum positions get farmed out to a close relative of the hiring officials involved.

Intrigued, I read on.

To apply you first had to fly to Auckland, New Zealand, and then catch a flight to Tahiti. After that you must endure another long flight to the remote Gambler Island, and then charter a boat for a 36-hour voyage.

Once there, you had to row ashore to a hidden cove on the island, as there was no dock, or even a beach.

It turns out that the job of a lifetime is on remote Pitcairn Island, some 2,700 miles ENE of New Zealand, home to the modern decedents of the mutineers of the HMS Bounty.

History buffs will recall that in 1790, Fletcher Christian led a rebellion against the tyrannical Captain William Bligh, casting him adrift in a lifeboat.

He then kidnapped several Tahitian women and disappeared off the face of the earth. When he stumbled across Pitcairn, which was absent from contemporary charts, he burned the ship to avoid detection.

An off course British ship didn?t find the island until some 40 years later, only to find that Christian had been killed for his involvement in a love triangle decades earlier.

The job is not without its challenges. There is one doctor, and electric power is switched on only 10 hours a day. Supply ships visit every three months. The local language is a blend of 18th century English and Tahitian called Pitkern, for which there is no dictionary.

Previous workers have a history of going native. Oh, and 10% of the island?s 54 residents are registered sex offenders, due to its long history of incest.

The next time someone you know complains about being unable to find a job, just tell them they are not looking hard enough, and to brush up on their Pitkern.

For more on the jobs situation, please visit my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com.

 

Mutiny on the Bounty

Marlon Brando

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I've been reading your blog for a while and found it a helpful beacon in a sea of confusing and contradictory information as I try and make sense of the world (and try and make money from sense!).

Kind regards,

Toby
London, England

John at Kentucky Derby

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) May 11, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

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DougD

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (USO) May 11, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/James-Dean-e1462815817923.jpg 400 314 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-11 12:49:052016-05-11 12:49:05Follow Up to Trade Alert - (USO) May 11, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (USO) May 11, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) May 11, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-05-11 10:48:342016-05-11 10:48:34Trade Alert - (SPY) May 11, 2016
DougD

May 11, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-11 09:17:172016-05-11 09:17:17May 11, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

May 11, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 11, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MINISTRY COMMENTS DEMOLISH THE YEN),
(FXY), (YCS),
(THE COST OF AN AGING WORLD),
(EWJ), (EWI), (EWG), (EWQ), (EWL), (EWU), (PIN)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI)
iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)
iShares MSCI France (EWQ)
iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped (EWL)
iShares MSCI United Kingdom (EWU)
PowerShares India ETF (PIN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-11 01:08:482016-05-11 01:08:48May 11, 2016
DougD

Ministry Comments Demolish the Yen

Diary, Newsletter

We are pretty much home free on our short position in the Japanese yen.

At this morning?s mark of $2.92 we had captured 73.33% of the maximum potential profit, earning a tidy 8.15% in only eight trading days.

As soon as this position expires on May 20, I?ll be rolling out to the June options.

Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, as they say.

Rather than pay the commissions to come out here at $2.92, I am going to hang on to the May 20 expiration in eight trading days.

Yesterday, Japanese Minister of Finance, Mr. Taro Aso, said that he was ?prepared to undertake intervention? to weaken the Japanese yen.

Of course, it was a big help that someone in the ministry called me last Wednesday to give me a heads up that something like this was in the pipeline, and would be made public as soon as everyone came back to work from Japan?s Golden Week holidays.

Knowing the Finance Minister?s father back in the 1970?s when I covered Japan for The Economist magazine probably had something to do with it.

Did I mention that I was the first foreigner ever to have an office in the Japanese Ministry of Finance, just down the hall from the head guy? I remember the lack of heating and those cold, ill lit marble hallways with creaking wooden parquet floors like it was yesterday.

The news was more than enough to crush the yen and send all of the short term longs packing.

There never was a fundamental argument to own the yen whatsoever. It was technical and high frequency day traders all the way.

What else would you expect with the beleaguered country?s negative interest rates, dying economy, the worlds worst demographic outlook, and a business philosophy firmly rooted in the last century.

Did you know that 20% of the Nikkei Average listed companies are zombies with a negative net worth kept alive so they won?t default on their debt? It?s not an accounting system I have any great faith in.

Look for the move down to be just as ferocious as it was on the way up. My bet is that the yen has put in its high for the year.

Another round of aggressive quantitative easing has to be just around the corner.

If you own the ProShares Ultra Short Yen -2X ETF (YCS), keep it. We have much lower to go for the yen, and much higher to go for the (YCS).

FXY

FXY 5-10-16

YCS 5-10-16

Japanese Girl

Its All Over for the Yen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Japanese-Girl-e1414074431163.jpg 280 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-05-11 01:07:482016-05-11 01:07:48Ministry Comments Demolish the Yen
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Cost of an Aging World

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Regular readers of this letter are well aware of my fascination with demographics as a market driver.

They go a long way towards explaining if asset prices are facing a long-term structural headwind or tailwind.

The great thing about the data is that you can get precise, high quality numbers 20, or even 50 years in advance. No matter how hard governments may try, you can?t change the number of people born 20 years ago.

Ignore them at your peril. Those who failed to anticipate the coming retirement of the baby boomer generation in 2006 all found themselves horribly long and wrong in the market crash that followed shortly.

The Moody?s rating agency (MCO) has published a report predicting that the number of ?super aged? countries, those with more than 7% of their population over the age of 65, will increase from three to 13 by 2020, and 34 in 2030.

Currently, only Japan (26.4%) (EWJ), Italy (21.7%) (EWI), and Germany (EWG) are so burdened with that number of old age pensioners. France (EWQ) (18.7%), Switzerland (EWL) (18.2%), and the UK (EWU) (18.1%) are about to join the club.

The implication is that the global demographic dividend the world has enjoyed over the last 40 years is about to turn into a tax, a big one. The consequence will be lower long-term growth, possibly by 0.5%-1.0% less than we are seeing today.

This is what the bond market may already be telling us with its unimaginably subterranean rates for its long term bonds (Japan at -0.13%! Germany at 0.14%! The US at 1.75%!).

Traveling around Europe last summer, I was struck by the number of retirees I ran into. It certainly has taken the bloom off those topless beaches (I once saw one great grandmother with a walker on the beach in Barcelona).

For the list of new entrants to the super aged club, see the table below.

This is all a big deal for long-term investors.

Countries with inverted population pyramids have lots of seniors saving money, spending very little, and drawing hugely on social services.

For example, in China, the number of working age adults per senior plunges from 6 in 2020, to 4.2 in 2030, to only 2.6 by 2050!

Financial assets do very poorly in such a hostile environment. Your money doesn?t want to be anywhere near a country where diaper sales to seniors exceed those to newborns.

You want to bet your money on countries with positive demographic pyramids. They have lots of young people who are eager to work and to spend on growing families, drawing on social services little, if at all.

Fewer seniors to support keeps tax and savings rates low. This is all great for business, and therefore, risk assets.

Be careful not to rely solely on demographics when making your investment decisions. If you did that, you would have sold all your American stocks in 2006, had two great years, but then missed the tripling in markets that followed.

According to my friend, noted demographer Harry S. Dent, Jr., the US will not see a demographic tailwind until 2022.

When building a secure retirement home for yourself, you need to use all the tools in your toolbox, and not rely just on one.

A demographic headwind does not permanently doom a country to investment perdition.

The US is a prime example, where a large number of women joining the labor force, high levels of immigration, later retirement ages, and lower social service payouts all help mitigate a demographic drag.

A hyper accelerating rate of technological innovation also provides a huge cushion.

Percentage of Population over 65

India 2010 PopulationYou Want to Invest in This Pyramid?

PIN2

Japan Population 2010...Not This One

$NIKK

 

Lady - Raspberries

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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