While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
December 4, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST),
(DECEMBER 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(CHICAGO WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
Well what an interesting day that was!
News that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had been arrested and turned state's evidence against the president, his family, and his campaign, ignited the most volatile day of 2017.
The Dow Average crashed 350 points in minutes as thousands of pre programmed algorithms simultaneously kicked on the sell side. US Treasury bonds (TLT) rocketed a full three points.
It was like the world was ending.
This could be the beginning of the end for a certain former resident of Queens, NY, but it may take another year to play out.
As if the day did not resemble the plot line of a cheap dime novel enough, the headline hit just as the Republicans were holding a crucial vote on the tax bill.
The Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX), soared 30% in seconds, to $14.50. "RISK OFF" hedges like gold (GLD) and the Euro (FXE) popped nicely.
It certainly was a day when the cautious were rewarded. Cautious people like you, who have hopefully been following my advice.
Me, being the opportunistic, ever nimble trader that I am, took advantage of the turmoil to add two positions to my model trading portfolio.
I used the extreme spike in bonds to re-establish my short position in the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT).
I also used the dip in bank shares to add a long position in Bank of America (BAC), which I think could double in value in the next 2-3 years.
The hallmarks of the week were new trends which I have been predicting for months.
Stock pickers viciously rotated out of FANG's and into financials, energy, and industrials. The Wednesday Silicon meltdown, where some stocks fell as much as 15%, confirmed this view.
Big money moved from growth to value.
With the economy heating up the way it is, it couldn't go any other way.
Consider it all an early preview of how stock markets in 2018 will play out.
I am sticking to the same game plan that has worked since 2009. Use every Washington and geopolitical inspired selloff to add to your longs.
In the end, it is all about corporate earnings, no matter what the president says, does, or has happened to him, and those are improving dramatically, as the hard economic data confirms.
You heard it here first.
By the way, the economic data continued to deliver a gangbuster performance. Q3 GDP was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3%, The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at an absolutely blazing 63.0, a decade high.
These hot numbers are coming in not just for the US, but for every major economy in the world. It is all the Global Synchronized Recovery I have been predicting since January.
The global economy is really in the best shape since the 1990's. That is a tough thing to bet against.
While a poor risk/reward has scaled back my trading significantly, the Mad Hedge Trade Alert performance continues to press to new all-time highs.
November finished at 2.08%, and December is already up 1.43%. This brings my trailing 12-month performance up to 55.66%.
This coming week it is all about jobs, jobs, jobs.
On Monday, December 4, at 10:00 AM EST, the November Factory Orders are published.
On Tuesday, December 5 at 8:55 AM EST we get the Redbook for the previous week, a read on chain store sales, which should be fabulous.
On Wednesday, December 6, we obtain November ADP Employment Report on private sector employment at 8:15 AM EST.
The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is out at 10:30 AM EST.
Thursday, December 6 leads with the 8:30 EST release of the Weekly Jobless Claims.
On Friday, December 7 at 8:30 AM EST the November Nonfarm Payroll Report is out.
Then at 1:00 PM, we receive the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which lately has started to turn up again.
As for me, I'll be performing like a FIFA World Cup goalie, fielding all of the Amazon packages sent my way. I was pretty busy on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
"Short term volatility creates long term opportunity," said Rupal Bhansali, of the Ariel International Fund.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
December 1, 2017
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THURSDAY DECEMBER 28 MINNEAPOLIS STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ONLINE RETIALING),
(SFIX), (M), (KSS), (GPS), (JCP)
(BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (SPX), (INDU),
(TESTIMONIAL)
In my wealth management practice, you helped me finesse September like a virtuoso. As my client's investments were crashing through their stops...I hung on.
Your sage counsel helped me ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and add to positions at a great entry point. The scar tissue you've built up over your career is no small benefit to your subscribers.
Thank you so much!
Brad
Bakersfield, California
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.