• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Buy Novartis on the Data Scandal Dip

Biotech Letter

Amid the public outcry over how Novartis A.G. (NVS) dealt with the data manipulation issue involving its $2.1 million gene therapy Zolgensma, the stock has been doing quite fine. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has reassured everyone that the drug is still a safe choice for spinal muscular atrophy.

Although the agency threatened to impose “civil or criminal penalties,” it also reiterated that the FDA “remains confident that Zolgensma should remain on the market.” This is probably because the data manipulation affected only a minimal part of the information submitted for Zolgensma’s approval. It had no connection at all to more pressing matters like human safety and efficacy tests.

Rather, it pertains to the mouse studies performed during the early stages of drug testing. The FDA explained that Novartis’ data “continues to provide compelling evidence supporting an overall favorable benefit-risk profile” for the drug.

Nonetheless, Novartis didn’t exactly go away scot-free as an ex-FDA commissioner said that “the key issue of trust in the face of overwhelming complexity is driving the stern warning and possible consequences.”

In terms of the effects of the issue on Zolgensma’s sales, it’s also unlikely that it will greatly affect Novartis as a whole. The treatment is currently estimated to bring $200 million in profits this quarter and possibly $300 million in the succeeding period. Assuming that the FDA decides to impose a more restrictive punishment, Zolgensma’s sales contribute a tiny drop in the bucket of the company’s $11.7 billion estimated quarterly earnings.

This is why despite all the hullabaloo, people who have no idea about the issue wouldn’t even catch a whiff of it from looking at the ticker. Reviewing Novartis’ performance during the height of the issue, its shares went down only 0.8% amid a general Biotech and Life Sciences market slowdown.

So, why isn’t Novartis getting penalized for this data manipulation scandal? Because at the moment, the issue -- no matter how humiliating -- seems highly unlikely to affect the stock’s bottom line.

In the second quarter of 2019, Novartis beat earnings and sales estimates with the company even raising its guidance for this year. It recorded core earnings of $1.34 per share, up from the $1.18 reported in 2018. The company’s profits increased to hit $11.8 billion as well. Compared to the rest of the industry, which suffered a 1.1% decline, Novartis recorded a 5.2% gain so far in 2019.

Now, let’s take a look at the performance so far of its two major growth drivers: Innovative Medicines (pharmaceuticals) and Sandoz (generics).

The pharma segment grew by 10% this year and reported sales worth $9.3 billion, indicating a 9% increase year over year. Among the notable performers in this division is psoriasis treatment Cosentyx, which has been gaining traction especially in the United States as shown by the 25% increase in its sales to hit $858 million.

A global uptake, particularly in the hospital and ambulatory demand for chronic heart failure medication Entresto, also boosted its sales by 81% to rake in $421 million.

Novartis’ oncology unit also showed an increase of 9% courtesy of acute lymphoblastic leukemia drug Kymriah, severe aplastic anemia medication Promacta, and breast cancer treatment Kisqali.

Even its Lutathera, the radioactive targeted therapy for neuroendocrine tumor that was a recent addition from the acquisition of Advanced Accelerator Applications (AAA), contributed to this solid performance. AAA sales reached $171 million with $109 million coming from Lutathera profits alone. Meanwhile, Kisqali’s sales grew 94% and Promacta profits grew 23%.

As for the Sandoz segment, the division recorded $4.8 billion in sales, up by 1%. Its biopharmaceuticals profits increased 14% mainly thanks to the notable double-digit growth of cancer and rheumatoid arthritis treatment Rixathon (a biosimilar of Roche Holding AG’s (RHHBY) Rituxan), plaque psoriasis medication Erelzi (a biosimilar of Amgen’s (AMGN) Enbrel), and rheumatoid arthritis drug Hyrimoz (a biosimilar of AbbVie’s Humira).    

The strong performance during the second quarter pushed Novartis to boost its sales and earnings forecasts for 2019 to reflect mid-to-high single-digit increase. The new wave of drug approvals the company has gained provided added confidence to its performance in subsequent months.

Aside from expanding its rare genetic disorder portfolio with Zolgensma and oncology division with advanced breast cancer drug Piqray, Novartis is also looking to bring more depth to its ophthalmic pharmaceutical department with the acquisition of dry eye treatment Xiidra.

Given its current performance and the promising drug pipeline it has for 2019, Novartis is anticipated to become one of the top-performing biopharmas in the market today.

Buy (NVS) on the next dip.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/novartis.png 335 672 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-07 04:00:532019-11-06 16:15:30Buy Novartis on the Data Scandal Dip
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 6, 2019 - MDT Alert (IRBT)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 11:22:542019-11-06 11:22:54November 6, 2019 - MDT Alert (IRBT)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 6, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 09:15:182019-11-06 09:15:18November 6, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 6, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NIGHTMARE THAT IS UBER),
(UBER), (LYFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 09:04:002019-11-06 08:56:28November 6, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Nightmare That is Uber

Tech Letter

As I stare at my trading screen, Uber (UBER) is down over 10% intraday after a better than horrendous earnings report.

I thought share prices go up if companies beat consensus estimates?

In most cases – yes.

But the market is telling us that they do not believe in Uber’s story.

Just because a company loses $1.2 billion which bettered last quarter’s loss of $5.2 billion doesn’t mean investors will handpick the stock and save it from falling through the cracks.

Parsing through the rest of the earnings report, there is not much to really hang your hat on.

First, Lyft (LYFT), its smaller and more targeted competitor, turned up the pressure on Uber claiming they will become profitable on an adjusted earnings basis at the end of 2021, which is a year ahead of its original projection.

This forced Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi to hesitantly explain on a call that Uber’s management “hasn’t finalized planning” but is targeting being profitable for financial year 2021.

The claim is farfetched bordering on disingenuous and forcibly made because growth companies are effectively dead if they say it will take three years or more to become profitable.

The investing climate has changed that quickly thanks to Adam Neumann and the fallout at The We Company.

I would be more inclined to say that if Uber has a string of miraculous years with no adverse regulation against them, then there is a fractional chance they might become profitable by 2021.

Honestly, there was nothing that Uber showed me to make me think that I should consider investing in the company.

Momentum keeps slipping as we head into the day when 1.7 billion shares will become eligible for sale, roughly 90% of the total, and my guess is that investors will cut their losses.

Uber will have to gut many parts of the model to get to profitability and they have started the process by slashing employee costs cutting over 1,000 employees over the last quarter, or 2% of its entire workforce.

They will have to slash another 30% to get numbers on their side.

They might have to kill the parts of the business that aren’t delivering enough like Uber Freight and the autonomous driving unit.

The company still hasn’t found a solution for competing with taxi drivers without subsidizing each ride at a loss.

No matter how you dress it up, if the company can’t create solutions for this fundamental barrier to profits, investors will stay away.

It’s also a good reason for you and your money to stay away no matter how cheap Uber becomes.

It’s easy to envision if the state of California rebuffs the online food delivery firms' desire to put a cap on driver costs, that the stock could drop into the high teens.

Dara Khosrowshahi’s thesis of the scale and brand power working in Uber’s favor is flat out false.

Scale can be technology companies’ friend and savior, but when your company is literally a loss-making chauffeur service with zero competitive advantage, what is great about scaling that?

Sure, Uber is great for consumers especially in cities which have horrid public transport which is most of America.

I get that.

But Uber will either be forced to raise prices because they will pay the drivers more due to California law or because they lose too much money.

Who wants to hold a stock with these two crappy options on the near-term horizon?

If a gunman put a pistol to my head and asked me to invest in one, Lyft is the better option, it’s the lesser of two evils.

Yes, sadly we are at this point with these types of companies.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 09:02:592020-05-11 12:22:49The Nightmare That is Uber
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 6, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“If you don't optimize for the consumer on the Internet, you're dead.’” – Said CEO of Uber Dara Khosrowshahi

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/dara.png 237 337 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 09:00:562019-11-06 08:51:29November 6, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 6, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE QUANTUM COMPUTER IN YOUR FUTURE),
(AMZN), (GOOG),

(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-06 08:36:232019-11-06 08:30:16November 6, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 5, 2019 - MDT Alert (IRBT)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-05 11:28:122019-11-05 11:28:12November 5, 2019 - MDT Alert (IRBT)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 5, 2019 - MDT Alert (CRM)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-05 10:36:132019-11-05 10:36:13November 5, 2019 - MDT Alert (CRM)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 5, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DIALING FOR DOLLARS WITH TELEHEALTH),
(TDOC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-05 08:02:242019-11-05 08:13:47November 5, 2019
Page 24 of 173«‹2223242526›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
Scroll to top