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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 13, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TRADE WAR MOVES DOWN MARKET)
(DOCU), (PSTG), (ZUO), (MSFT), (PYPL), (ADBE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-13 04:04:462019-07-11 14:06:31June 13, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Tuesday, June 25 Sydney, Australia Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Sydney, Australia at 1:15 PM on Tuesday, June 25, 2019.

An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Tickets are available for $233.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown hotel the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/John-Thomas-Sydney.png 345 377 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-13 04:04:002019-07-08 09:44:54SOLD OUT - Tuesday, June 25 Sydney, Australia Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Trade War Moves Down Market

Tech Letter

To understand the consequences of the global trade war, just take a look at the second-tier software companies.

There has been softness in the latest earnings reports and guidance signaling a lukewarm upcoming summer.

The best-case scenario is the likes of DocuSign (DOCU) and Zuora (ZUO) rallying into the end of the year.

That is hardly a given considering the global turmoil has shifted supply chains in every which way as well as denting overall demand.

Cloud-based companies have seen meaningful weakness this earnings season, even some of them absorbing heavy losses in the wake of their quarterly results, but analysts aren’t ready to write off this industry yet.

Referencing the latest industry survey, 20 software companies reported results in the last month, and of those, only six saw a positive response in their stock prices.

DocuSign and Pure Storage (PSTG) were among names that got clobbered, along with cloud-computing plays like Cloudera Inc., Nutanix Inc., Box Inc., and Pivotal Software Inc.

The current malaise in software is due to higher valuations and macroeconomic issues which subsequently elevates uncertainty.

There is no reason to go hysterical over this, and in no way, shape, or form, does this signal an imminent implosion of cloud companies, any incremental caution may be reversible if macro indicators and sentiment rebound.

And this rebound can be swift once all the stars align together.

Adding to the comfort is that some of the sharp drawdowns were company-specific reasons.

MongoDB Inc. or Zscaler Inc., were coming off strong year-to-date advances in their shares and it was time to take profits before the next upward explosion.

Cybersecurity company Zscaler, is appropriately accounting for outperformance and have already been crushing higher than normal expectations.

DocuSign eclipsed expectations on some metrics but disappointed on others, such as billings growth.

This disappointing miss punished the company with a drop of 15% in the pre-market session, as DocuSign grew sales by 27%, a lower rate than in previous quarters.

Management blamed the poor performance to an elongated sales cycle.

Bulls were hoping for a beat-and-raise quarter and instead got in-line numbers with some soft spots around the periphery.

Investors aren’t in a charitable mood and the sensitive mood around geopolitics has made investors more agitated with a shorter leash.

There was a tone of a broader deceleration in software demand prompting stronger names to get comingled together, but the bulk of this negative price action has been overdone.

Even further down the pecking order, results from smaller cloud firms have pointed to more fundamental issues, and these stocks have emerged as a particularly weak sub-sector.

A number of these companies reigned in their forecasts, a trend that has buttressed analyst caution over the group.

Considering that many companies have labored and there exist clear narrative similarities, it’s hard not to surmise that some real systemic pains in infrastructure exist.

Many in the industry are acutely aware of the growing chorus of companies blaming competition or poor sales execution.

Lower growth rates are effectively the predominant reason for lower stock prices in this group of cloud companies.

On the flipside of this weaker cloud growth are the heavy hitters who are throwing around their weight getting through largely unscathed.

If any of these bigger cloud companies can fuse together a business model with no China exposure, then shares are likely stable to upward trending.

A company like Adobe (ADBE) is a perfect company to look at with an unpretentious yet steady growth rate and wildly successful products.

If we were to look at more growth-based companies with larger scale, then PayPal (PYPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) epitomize the type of cloud companies that are thriving in this environment and if geopolitics subsides, take on another 10% in sales.

Not only is the weather hot in the summer, but the anti-trust regulators are turning up the heat on certain tech companies on anti-trust concerns.

This could be a time to wait out those stocks and there could be another move to the upside if regulation is weaker than expected.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/msft-june13.png 564 972 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-13 04:02:432019-07-11 14:06:47The Trade War Moves Down Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 13, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“There are two kinds of companies, those that work to try to charge more and those that work to charge less. We will be the second.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/jeff-bezos.png 347 329 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-13 04:00:412019-07-11 14:06:55June 13, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 12, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(STITCHING YOUR WAY TO PROFITS)
(SFIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 10:04:222019-07-11 14:09:45June 12, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Stitching Your Way to Profits

Tech Letter

If you are looking for an opportunistic trade in an up and coming tech growth story, then look no further than Stitch Fix (SFIX) which is a product of an algorithm meeting a stylish wardrobe.  

This online personal styling service offering denim, dresses, blouses, skirts, shoes, jewelry, and handbags for men, women, and kids under the Stitch Fix brand is a first of a kind.

This company is a technology company because the underlying business deploys data science to work with personal stylists and machine learning (AI) for personalized recommendation.

Let’s take a peek at how they do it.

They send individually picked clothing and accessories items for a one-time styling fee.

Customers fill out a survey online about their style preferences then an in-house stylist chooses five items to send to the customer.

Human stylists pick items according to a customer's survey answers and any access the customer gives them to their social media profiles such as Facebook.

The customer schedules a date to receive the shipments, which is referred to as a "Fix".

Once the shipment is received, the customer has three days to choose to keep the items or partially return the order or send it all back.  

If the customer keeps at least one item, the initial styling fee is credited towards the cost of the item.

In addition to the styling fee being credited, if the customer decides to keep all five items, the customer receives 25% off the total cost of the items.

Customers choose the shipping schedule, such as every two weeks, once a month, or every two months.

The company also supports integration with Pinterest boards, allowing customers to add photos of fashion looks that appeal to them.  

Developing around the importance of client relationships is the heart and soul of the business.

There were many financial highlights in the second quarter that provide more color on how Stitch Fix manages the business and continue to drive this sustainable long-term growth.

In the second quarter, they generated a net revenue of $370 million blowing away guidance and representing 25% year-over-year growth.

The 25% growth year-over-year is exceeding the believed guidance of 22% to 24% growth.

Q2 gross margin was 44.1%, 110 basis points higher than last year's Q2 reflecting a higher sell-through rate combined with lower inventory reserve expense and lower clearance activity year-over-year.

Stitch Fix delivered $12 million in net income and $19.2 million in adjusted EBITDA which also exceeded guidance.

The firm grew active client count to 3 million as of the first month of 2019, an 18% increase year-over-year.

These results show the deep commitment to delivering long term growth while making significant investments in future categories and capabilities.

More proof of the robust growth projections can be understood with healthy projections for the upcoming quarter, for Q3 2019, Stitch Fix expects net revenue between $388 million and $398 million dollars, representing growth of 22% to 26% year-over-year.

The last quarter of 2019 should be even better with revenue growth accelerating, for Q4 2019 specifically, projected net revenues is between $410 million to $430 million, representing growth of 29% to 35% year-over-year.

If the company can hit the upper limit of growth and register 35% year-over-year growth in Q4, then shares will easily surpass $40 barring any black swan catastrophes from the geopolitical scene.

Marketing is another lever Stitch Fix made use of.

In the past, for instance, they chose to market more aggressively with men or less with plus-sized clients depending on the available inventory at each product group.

The sales and marketing provide Stitch Fix with the flexibility to manage growth and ensure they can deliver a positive experience to all clients.

Putting this framework into context, in Q2, Stitch Fix had higher than anticipated demand from existing clients.

This was proven by the year-to-date repeat rate of 88%.

As a result of this increased demand, repeat clients is good for the inventory in the quarter.

Hammering down on that technology advantage that is turning out to be the difference maker, Stitch Fix launched a new inventory optimization algorithm to more effectively allocate inventory across the customer base.

Historically, Stitch Fix has optimized inventory allocation one client at a time based on which client was first in line.

But this new algorithm gauges the preferences of a broader universe of clients in the queue, to determine which inventory should be made available to Style as they start for each client.

This guarantees suitable inventory to meet each client's style preferences regardless of the client's position and our style in queue.

Early signs from this new algorithm demonstrated increases in client satisfaction and engagement.

Stitch Fix believes this superior algorithm will enable them to effectively serve a growing client base over time while also driving efficiencies across styling, inventory management and operation.

Stitch Fix is also expanding abroad with a local U.K. team and investing in the ground operations.

The company is leveraging data science capabilities to serve the unique preferences of UK fashion.

They are on track for a Q4 U.K. launch and hope to capitalize on an expanded U.S. and UK addressable market of over $430 billion.

The latest financials make it hard to slap on anything other than a buy rating.

As many tech companies are experiencing a drain of decelerating growth to their models, Stitch Fix is still in their sweet spot and shares should reap the rewards for this type of execution.

Giving what the market wants is never a bad idea.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/active-clients.png 662 668 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 10:02:192019-07-11 14:09:54Stitching Your Way to Profits
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 12, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“As a consumer, you don't want to choose from a million pairs of jeans. You just want the one pair that's going to fit you and look great on you.” – Said Founder and CEO of Stich Fix Katrina Lake

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/sfix-ceo.png 335 360 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 10:00:062019-07-11 14:10:00June 12, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 12, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 09:27:052019-06-12 09:27:05June 12, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 12, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MONDAY, JUNE 24 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(AMGEN’S BIG LUNG CANCER BREAKTHROUGH),
(AMGN), (GSK), (MRTX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 05:06:462019-06-12 04:50:28June 12, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Monday, June 24 Melbourne, Australia Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Luncheon, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update which I will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia on Monday, June 24, 2019 at 1:15 PM.

An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Tickets are available for $232.

I’ll be arriving at 1:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a downtown five-star hotel, the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/melbourne.png 400 570 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-06-12 05:04:592023-06-28 17:01:35SOLD OUT - Monday, June 24 Melbourne, Australia Global Strategy Luncheon
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