Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 6, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JOHNSON & JOHNSON JOINS THE CORONAVIRUS BATTLE)
(JNJ), (PRVB)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 6, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JOHNSON & JOHNSON JOINS THE CORONAVIRUS BATTLE)
(JNJ), (PRVB)
It looks like Johnson & Johnson isn’t walking away from the biotechnology sector anytime soon.
News of a potential exit came following the company’s move to cut down on its investment on Proventio Bio (PRVB) from 6.4%, which is around 2.4 million shares, to a 2.4% stake or 1.2 million. Further reports revealed that JNJ might sell its remaining shares soon.
JNJ’s reemergence on the front page of the biotechnology sector comes in the wake of the overwhelming fear courtesy of the coronavirus, which has already taken the lives of nearly 500 people and placed more than 24,000 patients in hospitals worldwide.
In the company’s recent announcement, JNJ executives disclosed that they are also throwing their hat in the ring in the search for a speedy vaccine to combat the deadly coronavirus.
This means that JNJ is joining Gilead Sciences (GILD), AbbVie (ABBV), and Moderna (MRNA) in the very short list of companies aiming to achieve that.
Taking a page off its success in creating a vaccine for the Ebola outbreak, JNJ is confident that it can not only come up with a coronavirus vaccine but also be able to scale it up the moment they receive FDA approval.
For context, JNJ took roughly six months to come up with an Ebola vaccine, scale the treatment, and deliver it to the public. The company spent around the same time in its efforts to produce a Zika virus vaccine.
As for the coronavirus vaccine, JNJ expects to shave off two to three months from the Ebola and Zika timelines.
While no concrete report on the progress of this initiative has been released, reports point to JNJ working with Chinese researchers to use HIV drugs to treat the widely spreading respiratory disease.
How will this impact JNJ’s performance in 2020?
For one, success on this front would definitely increase the earnings estimate for this year especially since JNJ’s fourth-quarter results failed to meet expectations on the top line. Meanwhile, the company beat the bottom line by one penny, recording $1.88 per share.
As expected, the talcum powder lawsuits continued to exert pressure on the company’s consumer goods segment.
Sales of the baby care products amounted to $421 million, exhibiting an 11% decline compared to the previous performance during the same period in 2018.
Blockbuster prostate cancer drug Zytiga has been struggling with the rise of generic rivals since 2018, slashing 13.8% off its fourth-quarter sales to $677 million.
Meanwhile, the declining sales of psoriasis moneymaker Remicade didn’t cause any major decline in the total revenue of JNJ’s pharmaceutical segment. This comes as a surprise since biosimilar competition has been gaining on the drug, cutting its fourth-quarter sales by 16.4% year over year to record $1 billion.
Despite the so-so results, the report still provided glimmers of hope that all but guarantees that JNJ shares won’t plummet in the future.
In fact, JNJ’s total fourth-quarter revenue increased by 1.7% thanks to the new products released as precautionary measures to pick up the slack from the sales decline of both Zytiga and Remicade.
For instance, psoriasis treatment Stelara managed to impress with a 17.7% increase year over year to hit $1.7 billion.
Another recently launched psoriasis injection, Tremfya, demonstrated a whopping 53.9% jump to contribute $270 million in the total revenue in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, younger drugs like blood cancer treatments Darzalex and Imbruvica pitched in $1.7 billion, showing off a 32.5% improvement in sales.
So although it’s unlikely that the stock will be able to produce top-line growth in the double digits as often as we’d like, JNJ remains an attractive investment.
One of its most alluring features is its diversified portfolio, which reaches across numerous business lines in the healthcare and biotechnology sectors.
This diversification has become a pillar of the company, ensuring that it doesn’t topple even in times of economic downturns.
The fact that it offers a 2.6% dividend yield makes JNJ a dream come true among income-seeking investors. It also doesn’t hurt that JNJ has consistently raised its dividends annually for the past 57 years, making it the most stable and secure out there today.
Even its lawsuits don’t seem to have any severe impact on the company’s performance since JNJ managed scores of legal cases in the past and constantly managed to come out in one piece. Taking its history as an indication, JNJ should remain as one of the top stocks in the years to come.
Today, I would like to make a suggestion on a stock that I believe should continue to get a bounce and follow through to the upside.
The stock is Kirby Corp.(KEX).
I would like to use the same structure as the trade we just closed
out on NTAP.
That is the unequal straddle.
KEX does not report until April 30th, so there is no scheduled earnings event in the near future.
KEX is trading around $75 as I write this.
The suggestion will be an unequal straddle with a bullish bias.
The idea will be buy 2 calls for every 1 put.
Buy to Open (2) March 20th - $75.00 calls @ $2.60. The 2 calls will cost $5.20.
Buy to Open (1) March 20th - $75.00 put @ $3.10
The total debit will be $8.30 per position.
Based on the nominal portfolio, limit the trade to a 2 lot or a total of $1,660. This is a 1.6% risk based on the nominal portfolio.
The end result if you trade the suggested position size is that you will own (4) March 20th - $75 calls and (2) March 20th - $75 puts.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO TRADE THE CORONAVIRUS)
(APPL), (MSFT), (TSLA), (MU), (WDC), (ZM)
Like a powerful mule, I believe the American tech sector will muscle through the shock of the China coronavirus.
The tech sector will do what it does best, take the lead and put the entire American economy on its back and carry it through when doubts of decelerating global growth are asked of it.
I quantify this as an opportunity for the American tech sector.
Let’s look at some of the short-term contagion American tech companies are absorbing, as well as some opportunities in tech delivered by this sad pandemic.
Apple (AAPL) has made the decision to shutter all Apple stores in mainland China.
Their corporate offices have also gone into sleep mode and that means 10,000 people will need to make do with work stoppages which also include the component makers that supply Apple.
The stoppage is until February 9th, but only if the coronavirus has been effectively thwarted.
The Chinese populace isn’t willing to go out on the street and have barricaded themselves inside their apartments to avoid catching the virus.
Quarantining large areas is an unprecedented move from the Chinese communist party highlighting the poor handling of the situation in the early stages.
China is a critical revenue driver for Apple constituting 15% of revenue.
The delay in manufacturing will result in 3% of iPhone unit shipments being pushed out from March to June.
However, if the lockdown spills into late February or March, then there will be a major hit to the Chinese consumer which could muddy Apple’s bottom line.
Apple’s supply chain could get up-and-running if the shutdown lasts a few weeks but if we are talking months then project dates could get put on the permanent back burner.
Apple is arguably the most prominent American tech company to be affected deeply by the coronavirus but there are others.
The Chinese communist party has put the operation of the new Shanghai Tesla (TSLA) factory on ice which will delay the company’s production of the Model 3 there.
The ramp-up of the Model 3 production will be delayed by a week and a half and the shutdown may “slightly” impact the company’s profitability in the first quarter of 2020, said Tesla’s finance chief Zach Kirkhorn.
As of now Tesla has estimated a 10-day delay to the Shanghai-built Model 3s due to a government-required factory shutdown and the facility will remain locked until February 9th.
Tesla have been churning out cars at its Shanghai factory only since the end of 2019.
The deliveries are an emerging revenue driver as Tesla hopes to gain a foothold in China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles.
Fortunately, Shanghai-produced Teslas only make up a tiny part of Tesla’s overall revenue, meaning there will be minimal impact to the financials.
The outbreak could have a positive effect for some domestic semiconductor companies.
The chaos resulting from the virus will likely upset operations at Wuhan-based Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., who have been stealing market share from their American competitors.
Yangtze Memory Technologies is China’s leading NAND flash memory producer.
NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in USB drives and smaller devices such as digital cameras as opposed to DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers.
Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WFC) could swoop in to meet the extra demand.
Another company that could seize a great opportunity because of the coronavirus is Zoom Video Communications (ZM).
The CEO of Zoom Video said, “If you cannot travel ... you need to have a very reliable secure tool like Zoom” and product usage “is very, very high since the last of the month, last week. Almost every day - that’s a record usage.”
Since Chinese tech workers are barricading themselves indoors, Zoom has been the tool of choice to collaborate with coworkers who are in the same situation.
Not that the video conferencing software company needed help, I have recommended this company as a solid buy and hold since the stock dipped to $62.
This new boost will pour gas on the flames and the stock price reacted in lockstep by rocketing 15% in just one trading day.
When the likes of Alphabet’s Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, and Ford Motor are ordered to work from home, videoconferencing, online meetings, chat and mobile collaboration services shoot through the roof.
Video conferencing will become a $43 billion total addressable market in the coming years, and I believe Zoom is easily a $150 stock.
In short, the coronavirus will hurt some tech companies short-term, benefits others, and have no effect on tech firms with negligible China exposure.
Facebook is a stock that I recently executed a call spread on, and they are blocked from operating in the mainland and will feel no difference from this virus outbreak.
Looking even deeper into the matter, the short-term hit to revenues will only be temporary unless this virus wipes out most of China.
The most likely scenario is that less than 1,000 people will eventually die from this and 99.9% of that will be deaths in mainland China.
Investors should look at buying on any substantial dip – the tech narrative is still unbroken.
“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful, that's what matters to me.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 5, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT), (TLT), (BA), (GOOGL), (SPY)
Because NTAP does report next week and the stock had the bounce that I expected, I am going to suggest you take the profit on the trade.
I don't want to run the risk of it pulling back and we can always put the trade back on if it does.
Sell to Close (2) February 14th - $54.50 calls @ $3.10. The 2 calls will net $6.20
Sell to Close (1) February 14th - $54.50 put @ $1.38. The put will net $1.38.
If you traded the suggested 2 lot allocation, the total gross will be about $1,516.
With a cost of $1,240, the trade will net $276 for one day.
The return for that day will be 22%.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 4, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ABBVIE’S BIG CORONA VIRUS PLAY)
(ABBV), (RHHBY), (GILD)
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