The most significant market development so far in 2020 has not been the epic stock market crash and rebound, the nonstop rally in tech stocks (NASDQ), the rebound of gold (GLD), or negative oil prices, although that is quite a list.
It has been the recent peaking of the bond market (TLT), which a few weeks ago was probing all-time highs.
I love it when my short, medium, and long-term calls play out according to script. I absolutely hate it when they happen so fast that I and my readers are unable to get in at decent prices.
That is what has happened with my short call for the (TLT), which has been performing a near-perfect swan dive since April. The move has been enough to boost me back into positive numbers for 2020.
The yield on the ten-year Treasury bond has soared from 3.25% in 2018 to an intraday low of 0.31% in March.
Lucky borrowers who demanded rate locks in real estate financings at the end of January are now thanking their lucky stars. We may be saying goodbye to the 3% handle on 5/1 ARMS for the rest of our lives.
The technical damage has been near-fatal. The writing is on the wall. A 1.00% yield for the ten-year is now easily on the menu for 2020, if not 2.00% or 3.0%.
This is crucially important for financial markets, as interest rates are the well spring from which all other market trends arise.
Wiser thinkers are peeved that the promised bleeding of federal tax revenues is causing the annual budget deficit to balloon from a low of a $450 billion annual rate in 2016 to $1.2 trillion last year and over $5 trillion in 2020.
Add in the bond purchases from the Fed’s new promise of $8 trillion in quantitative easing and you get true government borrowing of $13 trillion for 2020. It will all end in tears for bond and US dollar holders.
And don’t forget the president, who recently threatened to default on US Treasury bonds, just as the Treasury was trying to float $3 trillion in new issues. It is a short seller’s dream come true.
As rates rise, so does the debt service costs of the world’s largest borrower, the US government. The burden will soar in a hockey stick-like manner, currently at 4% of the total budget.
What is of far greater concern is what the tax bill does to the National Debt, taking it from $24 trillion to $32 trillion over the next year, a staggering rise of 50%. Even Tojo and Hitler couldn’t get the US to buy that much. If we get the higher figure, then we are looking not at another recession, but at yet another 1930-style depression.
Better teach your kids to drive for UBER early, as they are the ones who are going to have to pay off this gargantuan debt. That is if (UBER) is still around.
So what the heck are you supposed to do now? Keep selling those bond rallies, even the little ones. It will be the closest thing to a rich uncle you will ever have, if you don’t already have one.
Make your year now because the longer you put it off, the harder it will be to get.
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“Your margin is my opportunity,” said Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.
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With the Dow Average down 1,400 points in three trading days, you are being given a second bite of the apple before the yearend tech-led rally begins.
So, it is with great satisfaction that I am rewriting Arthur Henry’s Mad Hedge Technology Letter’s list of recommendations.
By the way, if you want to subscribe to Arthur’s groundbreaking, cutting-edge service, please click here.
It’s the best read on technology investing in the entire market.
You don’t want to catch a falling knife, but at the same time, diligently prepare yourself to buy the best discounts of the year.
The Coronavirus has triggered a tsunami wave of selling, tearing apart the tech sector with a vicious profit-taking few trading days.
Here are the names of five of the best stocks to slip into your portfolio in no particular order once the madness subsides.
Apple
Steve Job’s creation is weathering the gale-fore storm quite well. Apple has been on a tear reconfirming its smooth pivot to a software services-tilted tech company. The timing is perfect as China has enhanced its smartphone technology by leaps and bounds.
Even though China cannot produce the top-notch quality phones that Apple can, they have caught up to the point local Chinese are reasonably content with its functionality.
That hasn’t stopped Apple from vigorously growing revenue in greater China 20% YOY during a feverishly testy political climate that has its supply chain in Beijing’s crosshairs.
The pivot is picking up steam and Apple’s revenue will morph into a software company with software and services eventually contributing 25% to total revenue.
They aren’t just an iPhone company anymore. Apple has led the charge with stock buybacks and gobbled up a total of $150 billion in shares by the end of 2019. Get into this stock while you can as entry points are few and far between.
Amazon (AMZN)
This is the best company in America hands down and commands 5% of total American retail sales or 49% of American e-commerce sales. The pandemic has vastly accelerated the growth of their business.
It became the second company to eclipse a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. Its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud business pioneered the cloud industry and had an almost 10-year head start to craft it into its cash cow. Amazon has branched off into many other businesses since then oozing innovation and is a one-stop wrecking ball.
The newest direction is the smart home where they seek to place every single smart product around the Amazon Echo, the smart speaker sitting nicely inside your house. A smart doorbell was the first step along with recently investing in a pre-fab house start-up aimed at building smart homes.
Microsoft (MSFT)
The optics in 2018 look utterly different from when Bill Gates was roaming around the corridors in the Redmond, Washington headquarter and that is a good thing in 2018.
Current CEO Satya Nadella has turned this former legacy company into the 2nd largest cloud competitor to Amazon and then some.
Microsoft Azure is rapidly catching up to Amazon in the cloud space because of the Amazon effect working in reverse. Companies don’t want to store proprietary data to Amazon’s server farm when they could possibly destroy them down the road. Microsoft is mainly a software company and gained the trust of many big companies especially retailers.
Microsoft is also on the vanguard of the gaming industry taking advantage of the young generation’s fear of outside activity. Xbox-related revenue is up 36% YOY, and its gaming division is a $10.3 billion per year business.
Microsoft Azure grew 87% YOY last quarter. The previous quarter saw Azure rocket by 98%. Shares are cheaper than Amazon and almost as potent.
Square (SQ)
CEO Jack Dorsey is doing everything right at this fin-tech company blazing a trail right to the doorsteps of the traditional banks.
The various businesses they have on offer makes me think of Amazon’s portfolio because of the supreme diversity. The Cash App is a peer-to-peer money transfer program that cohabits with a bitcoin investing function on the same smartphone app.
Square has targeted the smaller businesses first and is a godsend for these entrepreneurs who lack immense capital to create a financial and payment infrastructure. Not only do they provide the physical payment systems for restaurant chains, they also offer payroll services and other small loans.
The pipeline of innovation is strong with upper management mentioning they are considering stock trading products and other bank-like products. Wall Street bigwigs must be shaking in their boots.
The recently departed CFO Sarah Friar triggered a 10% collapse in share price on top of the market meltdown. The weakness will certainly be temporary, especially if they keep doubling their revenue every two years like they have been doing.
Roku (ROKU)
Benefitting from the broad-based migration from cable tv to online steaming and cord-cutting, Roku is perfectly placed to delectably harvest the spoils.
This uber-growth company offers an over-the-top (OTT) streaming platform along with the necessary hardware and picks up revenue by selling digital ads.
Founder and CEO Anthony Woods owns 21 million shares of his brainchild and insistently notes that he has no interest in selling his company to a Netflix or Apple.
Roku’s active accounts mushroomed 46% to 22 million in the second quarter. Viewers are reaffirming the obsession with on-demand online streaming content with hours streamed on the platform increasing 58% to 5.5 billion.
The Roku platform can be bought for just $30 and is easy to set-up. Roku enjoys the lead in the over-the-top (OTT) streaming device industry controlling 37% of the market share leading Amazon’s Fire Stick at 28%.
The runway is long as (OTT) boxes nestle cozily in only 40% of American homes with broadband, up from a paltry 6% in 2010.
They are consistently absent from the backbiting and jawboning the FANGs consistently find themselves in partly because they do not create original content and they are not an off-shoot from a larger parent tech firm.
This growth stock experiences the same type of volatility as Square.
Be patient and wait for 5-7% drops to pick up some shares.
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When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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Many investors have asked me to put together a list of my favorite Biotech & Healthcare companies. So, I have created the model portfolio below made up of firms with the best earnings growth for the next decade. It includes a primary list of 19 high quality names, all of which are highly investable. I follow up with a secondary watch list of 18 names.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher The Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
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