While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
July 6, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or MEET THE NEW MARKET)
(SPY), (TLT), (TSLA), (GLD)
Meet the new market.
Remember “RISK ON, RISK OFF”?
That’s long gone, tossed in the dustbin of history.
We now have a stock market that runs on “COVID ON, COVID OFF”.
When the rate of increase in the number of new US Covid-19 cases soars, stocks dive. When they fade, stocks rocket. It doesn’t get any more complicated than that.
In fact, the market is becoming immune to induced Covid shocks. In February and March, it was a huge black swan. Now, it is put in front of our face every day, from the moment we put on our masks in the morning to the when we vigorously wash our hands on our return.
Which leads us to the question, “What are we buying here with the Dow Average at 26,000 and the S&P 500 price earnings multiple at a nosebleed 26X?” The lead sector of technology is seeing a four times price to sales multiple, the highest since the Dotcom Bubble top.
You certainly aren’t paying for 2020 earnings, which have been completely written off by investors long ago. (SPY) earnings could drop from $162 a share in 2019 to $125 this year…. or $85, depending on how long the Great Depression extends.
You are not paying for 2021 or 2022 earnings either because stocks are still expensive according to traditional benchmarks. Now, you have to go out to 2023 before we recover that historic $162 a share level. And that is the bull case. The bears don’t see earnings returning to peak levels until 2025, or even 2030 before we recover the 2019 earnings power.
Good thing I am not a habitual bear. I believe the America that comes out the other side of the pandemic will be immensely more powerful and profitable than the one going in. Fat is being trimmed at an incredible pace. New product lines and services are being invented out of whole cloth. What is going on in biotech is out of science fiction. And you want to buy a piece of this right now.
All of this sets up my coming American “Golden Age” scenario and another Roaring Twenties. Investors are not paying for the last America, but the next one, and that one is much more valuable. Stocks in the old America are expensive. Stocks in the new America are cheap.
I can see how this plays out with all the clarity of a sage. The Dow Average will grind up to just short of the all-time high. Then, a true vaccine will be announced and stocks will rise by 5% a day until the Index doubles to $50,000.
If the Oxford vaccine succeeds with its stage three trials in August, this could be only weeks away. Hence, the superheated market action right now.
It isn’t going to be all Champaign and roses. We are on the verge of losing the bottom quarter of the US population, the part that doesn’t own stocks, rents their homes, and once had low-waged jobs in restaurants, retailers, hotels, local government, and airlines. As many as ten million could get evicted from homes. The U-6 unemployment rate will stay permanently in double digits.
Then the next government will have to roll out 1930s style Roosevelt programs that put millions to work, like the Civilian Conservation Corps, which built much of the public infrastructure that we enjoy today.
June Nonfarm Payrolls blew it away, up 4.8 million, taking the unemployment rate to a still half-century high of 11.1%. A gain of only 2 million was expected. The problem is that the states that powered the greatest gains are now showing the biggest increases in new infections. Leisure & Hospitality gained 2.1 million, Retail 739,000, Manufacturing 356,000, Construction 158,000. It’s probably the most meaningless number ever reported.
Bonds were the best performing asset class in June, up 9%, with a huge flight to safety bid chasing every category of fixed income. It’s setting up one of the best short-selling opportunities of the century….again. The bond market is about to get crushed by historic over-issuance of paper by the US government.
The IMF predicts a 4.9% global GDP loss in 2020, a 1.9% drop in only two months. They are expecting a 5.4% bounce back in 2021. It lines up with my own forecast that things will get much worse before they get better.
Pending Home Sales up a staggering 44.3% in May, far and away the largest pop in history on a signed contract basis. They’re still down 5% YOY. Most builders will take that as a win. The west saw the biggest gains, up 56%. It bolsters my argument that housing will be immune to the current Great Depression, thanks to a surging Millennial demographic tailwind.
Fed Governor Powell warns of unprecedented uncertainty in his comments to be delivered to the House today. Translation: interest rates will stay lower for longer. Oh, and we need more fiscal stimulus too.
Tesla announced blockbuster Q2 sales. Of course, the news that Tesla delivered an amazing 90,650 vehicles in Q2, 20,000 greater than the most optimistic expectations, was the trigger. This is at the height of the pandemic with the factory closed for two months. I sent out a trade alert on the stock two days ago with a $1,200 target and it is already up 20%. The bottles of single malt Scottish whiskey have already started to arrive (hint, hint).
Tesla now has a market capitalization of an eye-popping $225 billion. Tesla has had everything thrown at it that should have wiped it out, like a pandemic, Great Depression, and negative oil prices. Yet, it has gone from strength to strength, the shares tripling off the March lows. Next stop $2,500.
The PPP is running out, and companies are not allowed to double-dip, unless congress changes the law and replenishes the funds. Some 47% of Americans work for companies with less than 500 employees, so the unemployment rate could surge to over 52 million. Me thinks the market won’t like this. Grounds for another 10% correction? My downside target is $270 in the (SPY).
The ISM Manufacturing Index shocked to the upside in June, coming in at 52.6 from 31.8, the best report in a year. It shows there was some kind of reopening going on last month. Can we repeat in July?
Gun Sales are soaring, according to FBI background check statistics for June. New owners are seeking protection in our current dystopian world on riots and pandemic. Many will end up shooting themselves or loved ones in accidents. The greatest of all ironies here is that Remington is now owned by the Navajo Indian tribe, who are almost wiped out by Remington’s in the 19th century, which they just obtained ownership of in a bankruptcy settlement.
When we come out the other side of this, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 400% or more in the coming decade.
My Global Trading Dispatch enjoyed the best week in its 13-year history, up an astounding +10.67%, even though it was only a holiday-shortened four-day week. We have taken in an eye popping +2.85% just in the first two days of July.
June closed at an awesome 10.38%. It was a week when everything worked in the extreme. My eleven-year performance rocketed to a new all-time high of 379.46%. Double weightings in Tesla, gold, and biotech were a big help.
That takes my 2020 YTD return up to an industry-beating +23.25%. This compares to a loss for the Dow Average of -9.4%, up from -37% on March 23. My trailing one-year return popped back up to 63.85%, THE HIGHEST IN THE 13 YEAR HISTORY of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. My eleven-year average annualized profit recovered to a record +35.85%.
The only numbers that count for the market are the number of US Coronavirus cases and deaths, which you can find here. It’s jobs week and we should see an onslaught of truly awful numbers.
On Monday, July 6 at 10:00 AM EST, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is released.
On Tuesday, July 7 at 8:00 AM EST, the US Vehicle Sales for June are announced.
On Wednesday, July 8 at 10:30 AM EST, the EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks are out.
On Thursday, June 9 at 8:30 AM EST, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.
On Friday, June 10 at 8:30 AM EST, the US Producer Price Index is released. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 2:00 PM EST.
As for me, I’ll be hitting the beach at Incline Village, Nevada, managing the appropriate social distance. The Coronavirus has a much short life span in the supper dry High Sierra air so I should be OK. And as far as I know, the virus can’t swim….yet.
Stay healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Today I would like to make a suggestion on a short term debit spread.
The stock is the CME Group Inc. (CME).
CME is trading around $166.72 as I write this.
I am going to suggest you trade the weekly calls that expire on July 17th.
Because I am not suggesting buying a lot of time, I am going to suggest the debit spread structure.
The idea is that we are looking for CME to follow through from the strong reversal yesterday.
Here is the trade:
Buy to Open July 17 - $167.50 call for $3.50
Sell to Open July 17 - $172.50 call for $1.50.
The net debit will be $2.00 per spread.
Limit the trade to 5 spreads or 1% of the nominal portfolio.
The maximum gain on the position will be $300 per spread or 150%.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 2, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE MARKET TOP)
(REGN), (GILD), (PFE), (ABBV)
No, this is not a typo, a misprint, nor an alcohol-induced departure from reality. I only buy stocks at market tops when I believe that newer, higher market tops are imminent. That is certainly the case with the entire biotech sector.
That’s why I moved this morning into a very aggressive triple weighting to the sector.
As the world grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, Regeneron (REGN) has been hailed as one of the “miracle stocks” in the biotechnology sector.
Although late to the party, Regeneron quickly became a frontrunner in the race to find a COVID-19 treatment in June when the company entered clinical trials with its COVID-19 treatment candidate. The New York biotechnology company has already started manufacturing, with the company expecting trial results to be released later this summer.
Regeneron followed the lead of other biotechnology companies repurposing seasoned medicines to treat this deadly disease, such as Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Pfizer (PFE).
Prior to developing it to target SARS-CoV-2, Regeneron’s antibody cocktail had been used to treat Ebola.
In response to Regeneron’s promising progress on the COVID-19 treatment, the market showed its appreciation by pushing the company’s shares up over 60% year-to-date.
Needless to say, Regeneron has been heavily outperforming the broad biotechnology indexes and even the broader market.
However, Regeneron’s success these days isn’t only attributed to its COVID-19 efforts. In fact, Regeneron’s annual revenue has been consistently increasing for more than a decade now.
Prior to starting its coronavirus program, the company has already lined up several candidates that can serve as catalysts for growth.
One of the catalysts for Regeneron’s growth is skin cancer injection Libtayo.
At present, Libtayo dominates the advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma market as seen in the 179% jump in its sales to hit $75 million in the first quarter of 2020.
Riding on the momentum of Libtayo’s current sales, Regeneron is also looking to expand its coverage to include non-small cell lung cancer and basal cell carcinoma.
This means that Libtayo still has a long way to go before it reaches its peak.
To give this drug’s potential some context, keep in mind that roughly 9,500 individuals in the United States alone get a skin cancer diagnosis every day. Meanwhile, over 3 million Americans are diagnosed with either basal cell carcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma each year.
As for non-small cell lung cancer, this disease accounts for 84% of over 228,000 cases of lung cancer in the US annually.
Combined, the market size of Libtayo could reach roughly 3.2 million patients.
Libtayo is priced at $9,100 to cover a three-week treatment course. Patients are advised to regularly take the infusion every three weeks. This puts the annual cost of Libtayo treatment somewhere around $158,000.
With this annual treatment cost and the projected total market size in mind, it’s safe to say that Libtayo can yield profits of well over 12 figures. This is the best-case scenario, though.
If we go for the least likely scenario, where Regeneron only reaches 10,000 patients for all the diseases mentioned, then the company can still generate an annual revenue exceeding $1.5 billion.
As for the other products in Regeneron’s pipeline, the company’s recent earnings report showed that sales in the first quarter were only marginally impacted by the pandemic.
For instance, Eylea’s annual growth rate was only at 6%. Nonetheless, this wet macular degeneration and metastatic colorectal cancer medication’s first quarter sales still reached a decent $1.9 billion.
Moreover, there’s a growing market that can substantially boost Eylea’s performance in the coming years.
Studies show that the global market for wet age-related macular degeneration is projected to rise at an annual rate of 7.1%. By 2024, this market could reach $10.4 billion.
Aside from Eylea, Regeneron’s eczema biologic Dupixent sales have been soaring as well. This drug went up by an impressive 124% year-over year, generating $855 million in revenue.
Dubbed as Regeneron’s “pipeline in a product,” the company is looking to transform Dupixent into a mega-blockbuster drug like AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira.
So far, Dupixent is being studied to determine if it can also be marketed to asthma patients and recently gained approval to be cover atopic dermatitis as well.
Overall, Regeneron merits a closer look, especially among biotechnology investors searching for a dependable stock with a lot more room to grow.
Not only does the company have over $7.2 billion in cash and have minimal debt, it also has a remarkable profit growth.
In the first quarter of 2020 alone, Regeneron’s bottom line jumped by a whopping 48% year over year to reach $771 million or $6.60 per share.
Looking at its annualized rate, Regeneron stock is actually trading for roughly 22 times earnings -- a reasonable price to pay for a well-rounded blue chip company that offers such impressive growth and a strong track record.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more