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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Vultures at Elliott Management

Tech Letter

Elliott Management’s dive into tech can be used as a leading indicator of which tech companies are great fixer-uppers.

Truth be told, Elliott Management, the vulture hedge fund, has a knack for finding those rusted cloud gems and polishing them shiny.

They don’t do this for free either, and making a killing on each of these turnaround stories usually has the same ruthless strategy.

Some of the prey were well-known within particular tech sector niches, like BMC, Novell and Informatica, but none were giants or household names.

Billionaire Paul Singer, notched sale after sale, reaping gains from the associated premiums on the acquisitions.

Most recently, his tech aspirations have increased with the pedigree of the company dwarfing in size he did before with stakes in eBay (EBAY), SAP, and AT&T (T).

This year, Elliott has already feasted on Twitter (TWTR) and SoftBank.

Part of the reason for slaying bigger dragons is because tech has gotten expensive with multiples expanding rapidly, and successfully leveraging usually works by going bigger and not smaller.

How does Elliott influence the change needed to raise the share prices?

First, getting his guys on the board to make decisions for the company.

He does this by getting his most trusted confidante and deal maker Jesse Cohn in the mix and he leads Elliott’s technology transactions.

He now sits on the boards of both eBay and Twitter.

Rather than scorching the earth for public change, he has worked in tandem with management at both companies.

Cohn is also supported by Elliott’s in-house Internet analysts, software analysts, operation analysts, consultants and stable of installed board members to help make decisions.

A decision they were at the forefront of was possibly firing Jack Dorsey at Twitter after identifying him as not maximizing profitability and revenue at Twitter.

Ultimately, Dorsey earned himself another quarter as CEO, but that’s how things work at Elliott, they run a tight ship.

Twitter said in a securities filing that a board committee formed this spring recommended that the current management structure remains in place for the time being.

The announcement gives Mr. Dorsey a reprieve after his performance was heavily criticized by Cohn and Elliott Management.

Twitter and Elliott reached an agreement in March in which the company agreed to appoint two board members and commit to $2 billion in share buybacks.

The agreement also included the formation of the new committee to study Twitter’s leadership, which effectively created a probation period for Mr. Dorsey to prove himself to the new investors.

So, does Elliott’s aggressive strategy work or fail?

The proof is in the pudding with Twitter shares up about 40% since bottoming out in March.

Twitter has expanded its userbase by about 23% since the fourth quarter of 2019.

So what now for Elliott?

Elliott is now one of the biggest investors in F5 Networks (FFIV), a Seattle company with a market value of about $8.8 billion.

They have spoken to the software company’s management about ways to appreciate the underlying shares which has not gone up in the past 365 days.

Shares have seriously underperformed to similar-sized cloud companies.

F5 Networks provides multi-cloud application services for the availability, security, performance, and availability of network applications, servers, and storage systems.

So far, they have announced plans to repurchase $1 billion worth of stock through fiscal 2022.

The buyback plan includes the accelerated repurchase of $500 million worth of stock in fiscal 2021.

The company said it targets double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth over the next two years and revenue growth of 6% to 7%, including software revenue growth CAGR of 35% to 40%.

These moves will help the company arrive at an inflection point in the transformation story where operating margins are poised to expand and revenue will accelerate, leading to sustainable double-digit growth

Elliott has also investigated some dubious decisions by F5’s management such as the company’s recent acquisitions of Shape Security Inc. and Nginx Software Inc., unhappy F5 overpaid without a clear integration strategy.

Elliott’ roadmap typically involves sizeable stakes in tech firms giving them the authority to throw their weight around behind the scenes.

Stock buybacks, acquiring company board seats, reducing expenses, acquisitions, wholesale management changes are part of their recipe for raising the stock price.

I have no reason to believe that Elliott will fail this time around after their string of tech successes and that leads me to recommend F5 Networks as a great buy the dip tech story.

The first stage of the turnaround is usually the most dramatic and noticeable with the follow-through to the flagging share price.

I wouldn’t be shocked if shares are up 25% from current prices in Q1 2021.

 

Elliott

 

Elliott

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-11 12:02:282020-11-15 15:46:41The Vultures at Elliott Management
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“The joke about SAP has always been, it's the lingering hangover from the dot-com crash.” – Said American Venture Capitalist Marc Andreessen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/roubini.png 254 282 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-11 12:00:252020-11-11 12:30:15November 11, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 11, 2020
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL VETERANS DAY LETTER

Featured Trade:
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-11 11:04:102020-11-11 11:14:12November 11, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-11 09:19:252020-11-11 09:19:25November 11, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (UNP) November 10, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-10 12:23:322020-11-10 12:23:32Trade Alert - (UNP) November 10, 2020 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(PFIZER ADDS EXCLAMATION POINT TO ITS DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE)
(PFE). (MRNA), (AZN), (JNJ), (MCK), (GSK), (MYL). (MRK), (BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-10 11:02:012020-11-10 17:00:07November 10, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Pfizer Adds Exclamation Point to its Declaration of Independence

Biotech Letter

When Operation Warp Speed was launched, the US government handpicked the most promising COVID-19 vaccine programs and offered them funding—an offer that was welcomed by all those selected except for one: Pfizer (PFE).

While COVID-19 vaccine frontrunners like Moderna (MRNA), AstraZeneca (AZN), and even Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) accepted financial assistance from the US government, Pfizer insisted on funding its own coronavirus program.

Now, Pfizer has taken another step to make it clear that it does not need any help.

In what could only be described as adding an exclamation point to its “declaration of independence” from the US government, Pfizer announced that it won’t use the country’s chosen distribution partner in delivering its COVID-19 vaccine.

For years, the US government has been using McKesson (MCK) to deliver drugs and other treatments.

In fact, this was the same company used by the Obama administration in 2009, when it distributed the H1N1 vaccine and medications.

This won’t be the case for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine though.

According to the company, it has designed its own delivery system to ensure the proper and safe distribution of its product.

In October, Pfizer disclosed its distribution plans that centered on select sites in Michigan, Belgium, Wisconsin, and Germany.

Other than its goal to operate as independently from the US government as possible, one of the concerns of Pfizer is the sensitive nature of its COVID-19 vaccine.

The vaccine has to be kept at an ultra-cold temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit, which means that the shipments would require close monitoring.

What we know so far is that Pfizer has designed shipping containers that can maintain the temperature of the vaccine for 10 days.

In terms of monitoring, the company has developed a real-time GPS tracking system that will report any deviations in the set conditions.

All these are implemented to ensure that the COVID-19 vaccine does not lose potency before it reaches patients.

Looking at the other vaccine candidates, Moderna might also resort to this kind of distribution arrangement since its vaccine needs to be stored at negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Outside its COVID-19 efforts, Pfizer has been aggressive in pruning its business divisions.

Since late 2019, Pfizer has been implementing strategies to eliminate its underperforming segments.

In August last year, the company forged a partnership with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to combine their consumer healthcare sectors.

This led to the formation of the GSK Consumer Healthcare, where Pfizer holds a 32% stake.

This year, Pfizer has been working on offloading its off-patent drug unit, Upjohn, and merging it with Mylan (MYL).

This deal should be finalized by the fourth quarter of 2020, with the merger offering Pfizer’s shareholders with roughly 57% of the new company, Viatris.

When this is completed, Pfizer would become a smaller and more focused biopharmaceutical company.

This means that the company can leverage its $202.27 billion market capitalization to move the needle more substantially in terms of its long-term prospects.

One of the key areas that Pfizer has been working towards becoming a powerhouse is oncology—a sector that has served as a major growth driver for the company for years.

Pfizer has a deep oncology portfolio comprising over 20 approved drugs marketed to different areas including breast cancer, lung cancer, and blood cancer. 

However, none of its cancer drugs have managed to breach the $10 billion annual sales mark in this sector.

This is because Pfizer has no absolute mega-blockbuster in the oncology space like its competitors Merck (MRK) with Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) with Opdivo.

With the growing number of pipeline candidates in its cancer portfolio, Pfizer is expected to come up with a blockbuster by the fourth quarter this year or before the first half of 2021 ends.

Looking at Pfizer’s pipeline, there are 14 approvals anticipated from today through 2025 in the oncology segment alone.

One contender is its prostate cancer drug Xtandi. Another is a non-small cell lung cancer medication called Lorbrena.

In terms of its current product lineup, Pfizer’s biopharmaceutical operations continue to impress investors.

Despite not having a mega-blockbuster, it still has several top-selling drugs like Eliquis and Ibrance. Both showed 9% increase each in sales for the third quarter of 2020.

Taking all these into consideration, Pfizer is estimated to deliver solid growth in the next few years primarily thanks to its fast-developing oncology segment. This market is forecasted to experience an increase of $240 billion every year by 2023.

Overall, a successful COVID-19 program could provide a one-time earnings boost for Pfizer and a substantial earnings accretion in fiscal 2021.

However, this giant biopharmaceutical company’s extensive lineup of commercialized products and promising oncology pipeline mean that its revenue and share performance do not heavily depend on its coronavirus vaccine.

If Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate fails, it won’t be a disaster for its shareholders, especially since the company’s shares do not seem to consider this program in its pricing.

In fact, Pfizer shares are looking inexpensive even without a successful COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

If it does turn out to be a success though, then Pfizer investors could enjoy some COVID-19 vaccine call option for free.

 

pfizer covid vaccine

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-10 11:00:302020-11-10 22:55:19Pfizer Adds Exclamation Point to its Declaration of Independence
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-10 09:48:232020-11-10 09:48:23November 10, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 10, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD),
(AAPL)
(THANK GOODNESS, I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-10 09:06:522020-11-10 09:27:07November 10, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SLV) November 9, 2020 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-11-09 14:22:082020-11-09 14:22:08Trade Alert - (SLV) November 9, 2020 - BUY
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