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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What Happened to the Dow?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

When I joined Morgan Stanley some 35 years ago, one of the grizzled old veterans took me aside and gave me a piece of sage advice.

“Never buy a Dow stock”, he said. “They are a guarantee of failure.”

That was quite a bold statement, given that at the time the closely watched index of 30 stocks included such high-flying darlings as Eastman Kodak (EK), Sears Roebuck & Company (S), and Bethlehem Steel (BS). It turned out to be excellent advice.

Only ten of the Dow stocks of 1983 are still in the index (see tables below), and almost all of the survivors changed names. Standard Oil of California became Chevron (CVX), E.I du Pont de Nemours & Company became DowDuPont, Inc. (DD), and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing became 3M (MMM).

Almost all of the rest went out of business, like Union Carbide Corporation (the Bhopal disaster) and Johns-Manville (asbestos products) or were taken over. A small fragment of the old E.W. Woolworth is known as Foot Locker (FL) today.

Charles Dow created his namesake average on May 26, 1896, consisting of 12 names. Almost all were gigantic trusts and monopolies that were broken up only a few years later by the Sherman Antitrust Act.

In many ways, the index has evolved to reflect the maturing of the US economy, from an 18th century British agricultural colony, to the manufacturing powerhouse of the 20th century, to the technology and services-driven economy of today.

Of the original Dow stocks, only one, US Leather, vanished without a trace. It was the victim of the leap from horses to automobile transportation and the internal combustion engine. United States Rubber is now part of France’s Michelin Group (MGDDY).

American Tobacco reinvented itself as Fortune Brands (FBHS) to ditch the unpopular “tobacco” word. National Lead moved into paints with the Dutch Boy brand. It sold off that division when the prospects for leaded paints dimmed in 1970 (they cause mental illness in children).

What was the longest-lived of the original 1896 Dow stocks? General Electric (GE), originally founded by light bulb inventor Thomas Edison. It went down in flames thanks to poor management and was delisted in 2018. It was a 122-year run. Today, it is one of the great turnaround challenges facing American Industry.

Which company is the American Leather of today? My bet is that it’s General Motors (GM), which is greatly lagging behind Tesla (TSLA) in the development of electric cars (99% market share versus 1%). With a product development cycle of five years, it simply lacks the DNA to compete in the technology age.

What will be the largest Dow stock in a decade? Regular readers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader already know the answer.

 

 

Sears: Not the Path to Wealth and Riches

 

Me Not Buying Dow Stocks in 1983

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/john-tokyo.jpg 425 318 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-02 10:02:562020-12-02 10:11:12What Happened to the Dow?
DougD

Quote of the Day - December 2, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"I only invest in beer-drinking countries, never wine-drinking countries," said Ben Horowitz, co-founder of venture capital firm Andreeson Horowitz.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Girl-Drinking-Beer.jpg 279 258 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2020-12-02 10:00:562020-12-02 10:13:12Quote of the Day - December 2, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 2, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-02 09:50:042020-12-02 09:50:04December 2, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 1, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 1, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(BET LIKE WARREN BUFFETT)
(MRK), (BRK.A), (AAPL), (JPM), (GILD), (PFE), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 14:02:492020-12-01 14:14:50December 1, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bet Like Warren Buffett

Biotech Letter

Warren Buffett’s moves via Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) showed some telling signs this third quarter.

For one, the Oracle of Omaha has surprisingly trimmed his holdings in Apple (AAPL) and even JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

Another telltale sign that change is coming can be seen in his positions in biopharmaceutical titans.

Let’s take a closer look at one of the three biggest biopharma investments of Berkshire to date: Merck.

While the New Jersey-based pharmaceutical titan has not been as widely reported as its counterparts in the COVID-19 race, Merck has actually been working on a promising coronavirus program.

In fact, the company is part of the first five COVID-19 programs included in Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed.

Just last week, the company added another promising COVID-19 treatment to its pipeline via the $425 million cash acquisition of Oncolmmune—a move that would give Merck access to the privately-owned company’s COVID-19 treatment, called CD24Fc.

 If successful, CD24Fc will be a powerful treatment for mild to severe cases of COVID-19.

To date, only Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Veklury has received FDA approval and even that treatment failed to address all the health concerns.

In comparison, CD24Fc is expected to undergo a smooth sailing journey from clinical trials to its market launch in 2021.

Meanwhile, Merck may have another ace in the hole with its COVID-19  program.

While the company is already months behind the frontrunners, Merck has a competitive advantage over the COVID-19 vaccine candidates submitted by Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and even AstraZeneca (AZN).

Its experimental COVID-19 vaccine does not require any freezing.

This means that unlike the candidates of Pfizer and Moderna, Merck’s vaccine does not need ultra-special handling and transportation.

On top of that significant advantage, Merck has been working with the nonprofit organization International AIDS Vaccine Initiative to develop a COVID-19 vaccine that only requires a single dose.

In contrast, the leading candidates today require two shots of their vaccines to become effective.

Apart from betting big on its COVID-19 program, Merck is also upping the stakes in its oncology pipeline.

Its recent move is the $2.75 billion acquisition of VelosBio—a partnership that adds another potent arrow to Merck’s already powerful quiver of cancer drugs.

This deal with VelosBio provides Merck with access to cancer treatments under development. Most of these home in on the deadly cancer cells but manage to spare the patients from several horrible side effects.

Prior to this, Merck shelled out $1 billion to gain an equity stake in Seagen (SGEN). The deal also grants Merck access to an extensive antibody drugs pipeline.

Aside from its oncology-related acquisitions—all of which have been home runs for its investors—Merck’s existing cancer pipeline has been consistent moneymakers.

Apart from lung cancer treatment Keytruda, which generated a whopping $11.9 billion in sales in 2019 alone, Merck has a virtually unbeatable arsenal against cancer.

In fact, its thyroid cancer drug Lenvima, which was initially approved for thyroid cancer in 2015, already expanded its indications to cover renal cell carcinoma and potentially even melanoma, endometrial cancer, NSCLC, and bladder cancer.

This could bring Keytruda-like success for Merck in the future.

Aside from Merck, Warren Buffett also invested in biopharmaceutical titans Pfizer and AbbVie.

As of September, Berkshire Hathaway holds 3.7 million Pfizer shares, 21.3 million AbbVie shares, and 22.4 million Merck shares.

These moves are especially noteworthy since the company has not owned any of these biopharma giants at the end of June.

Looking at the profile of these companies, there is no obvious connection or theme.

As discussed, Merck is heavily investing in its oncology pipeline.

AbbVie has been busy diversifying and building a pipeline independent from its megablockbuster Humira.

In fact, this biopharmaceutical giant has delved into dermatology with its massive acquisition of Allergan, aka the Botox-maker.

Meanwhile, Pfizer has been in the news thanks to its COVID-19 vaccine.

Aside from its coronavirus program, Pfizer has been focused on completing the merger between its Upjohn unit and generic drugmaker Mylan (MYL) to form a new company, called Viatris.

Analyzing all three closely though, one thing becomes clear: They are trading off their all-time highs and have been doing it for the entire 2020.

Do you know what that means?

Warren Buffett has been bargain shopping.

 

warren buffett

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 14:00:472020-12-04 15:50:09Bet Like Warren Buffett
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 1, 2020 - MDT Alert (PS)

MDT Alert

Today, I would like to make a suggestion on a covered call.

The stock I want to suggest is Pluralsight, Inc. (PS).

PS is trading around $16.84 as I write this.

My suggestion is to buy PS at the market, which is $16.84.

After buying the stock, execute this trade:

Sell to Open December 18th - $17.50 call for $.55.

Based on the nominal portfolio, limit the stock purchase to 400 shares
or 6.7% of the nominal portfolio.

This would mean you would sell 4 calls.

If the calls are assigned in three weeks, the return will be 7.2%.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 12:08:512020-12-01 12:08:51December 1, 2020 - MDT Alert (PS)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 1, 2020 - MDT Alert (AAPL)

MDT Alert

I am going to suggest you close the long $118 December 1st call on Apple today.

Apple is up to $122.71, up $3.63 as I write this.

I know in this morning's update, I mentioned the objective is slightly higher, but because the expiration is this Friday, I would rather book the profit than run the risk of a move against the position.

As a result, here is the suggestion:

Sell to Close December 4th - $118.00 Call for $4.80

This will produce a profit of $1.87 per option, or $1,122 if you traded the suggested 6 lot.

The profit on this side of the spread works out to 64% or $1,122 in total if you traded the 6 lot.

The total profit on the original debit spread works out to $1,770 on a cost of $960, if you include the profit on the short call you should have bought back.

The overall return works out to 184%.

This was for less than a 2 week holding period

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 10:35:462020-12-01 11:06:23December 1, 2020 - MDT Alert (AAPL)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 1, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 09:44:532020-12-01 09:44:53December 1, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 1, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 1, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(THE GOVERNMENT’S WAR ON MONEY)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-12-01 09:06:342020-12-01 09:41:20December 1, 2020
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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