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Douglas Davenport

Looking at the Large Numbers

Diary, Newsletter

A friend of mine asked me what the Global Money supply was.

I just so happen to know that number. It is $100 trillion. That includes the world's total M2 money supply, all the physical cash in circulation plus deposits, promissory notes, and other liquid money instruments.

Writing for The Economist magazine in London for ten years, I still constantly update these numbers in my mind. This, after all, is the air we breathe and the language we speak. 

Then it occurred to me that most people don’t know these mega numbers, so I thought I would give you a basic primer and some conclusions.

Enjoy.

$1 quadrillion – the value of all assets in the world, both financial and physical
$100 trillion – Global money supply
$150 trillion – the value of all global bonds and fixed income securities
$100 trillion – value of global stock markets
$47 trillion – US stock market capitalization
$30 trillion – the value of global real estate
$28.7 trillion – US National debt
$22.7 trillion – US GDP and end Q2
$20.5 trillion – US M2 money supply
$20 trillion – total value of US real estate
$14.4 trillion – GDP of China
$10 trillion – value of global physical gold holdings
$10 trillion – 2021 US corporate profits
$8.3 trillion – US Federal Reserve balance sheet
$4.174 trillion – FY 2022 US Budget (click here for detail at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2022-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2022-BUD.pdf )
$3.1 trillion – 2021 US Budget deficit
$4 trillion – GDP of Germany
$2 trillion – value of all issued cryptocurrencies
$1.5 trillion – GDP of California
$1.4 Trillion – GDP of Australia
$1 trillion – GDP of Russia

Looking at this impressive list of numbers, there is one that leaps right out at you. That is the second to the last one, the value of cryptocurrencies, which is only $1 trillion, two-thirds of which is Bitcoin.

That is 0.1% of the value of all assets in the world, 1% of the global money supply, 2.1% of US stock market capitalization. In other words, Bitcoin accounts for only a tiny share of global assets.

Which leads one to an obvious conclusion. The next big movement in money will be out of the largest assets classes into the smallest ones. The most obvious target here is the $150 trillion in the value of all bonds and fixed income securities, most of which have negative yields, or yields close to zero.

Move even a small portion out of bonds into Bitcoin and its value has to double, triple, move up ten times, or even 100 times.

There are other screaming conclusions to be found in these numbers. The bond market (TLT) is toast and can only really go down from here. The same is true for the US dollar (UUP). Oh yes, and you want to buy the Australian dollar (FXA).

It gets better.

The US money supply is currently worth $20.5 trillion and is growing at a 30% rate. So, in a year it will be worth $26.65 trillion and in two years it will be worth $34.65 trillion.

The biggest factor expanding the money supply today is NOT the government, but the explosive growth of US corporate profits, at $10 trillion in 2021, which is essentially a bet on the future of everything.

Even if the Federal Reserve ends its quantitative easing program as is currently being discussed (the “taper”), that would only take $120 billion a month, or $480 billion a year out of the growth of liquidity, only 4.8% of corporate profits, a pittance really.

And US corporate earnings could continue growing at this ballistic for another decade or more.

That means that not only will global liquidity continue to increase, but it will also do so at an exponential rate. My bet is that a decent chunk of this ends up on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin specifically.

Better strap on those Bitcoin positions now. If I am right this is going to happen fast.

I am keeping the $995 discount offer for the launch of the Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter open an extra day. To take advantage of this one-time-only opportunity please click here.

 

  

US Corporate profits

 

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-29 15:02:172022-05-03 16:27:48Looking at the Large Numbers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (PDD) April 29, 2022 - SELL-STOP LOSS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:22:332022-04-29 12:19:43Trade Alert - (PDD) April 29, 2022 - SELL-STOP LOSS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 29, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 29, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TELADOC IMPLODES)
(ARKK), (SARK), (TDOC), (ROKU), (SHOP), (ZM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:04:142022-04-29 16:03:32April 29, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Teladoc Implodes

Tech Letter

The Cathie Wood circus keeps making new lows as digital doctor platform Teladoc (TDOC) recorded the biggest drop in shares since its IPO.

At one point, shares were down 45% and this was the day after buying another tranche of over $200 million worth of shares before the earnings came out.

TDOC was a pandemic darling and since then, the stock has done nothing but dive lower.

There is even an inverse ETF to jump on the anti-Cathie Wood bandwagon called Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF (SARK).

SARK is almost up 100% year to date showing that as market conditions distort, traders must distort with them.

To stay long tech growth is like throwing money off an apartment balcony.

The lack of understanding Cathie Woods exhibits about the stock market is hard to fathom.

Her go-to excuse is that others “aren’t doing the research.”

We were smack dab in a low-rate environment for a decade when even marginal tech companies would get the benefit of the doubt.

As the goalposts have moved and narrowed, Wood is still sticking to her 5-year time horizon and still explaining to investors that other analysts “aren’t doing their homework.”

This really is a case of the emperor having no clothes if I have ever seen it.

To add insult to injury, she has gone on public television to speak about how she believes the global economy is experiencing deflationary pressures.

No matter what changes to the trading environment, she sticks to her narrow story of deflation and her 5-year time horizon while her investors lose money.

If that’s not enough, she blames the market for not understanding her ARKK fund which is down more than 50% this year.

She claims that many people are “devaluing innovation” and just do not understand innovation like she does.

With an unrelenting belief in her growth strategy, miraculously, another $1.5 billion of inflows have juiced up her fund in 2022.

There are many out there that still think she is a great money manager after her one call of Tesla going up was correct.

Investors have chosen to back her further even with mounting losses and that has now backfired as ETF ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) appears as if the market has not recognized how smart Cathie Wood is.

ARKK is Teladoc’s largest shareholder with a 12% stake worth.

It’s not just TDOC, but other investments like Roku (ROKU), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), and Shopify (SHOP) whose shares have experienced cataclysmic meltdowns of epic proportions.

Why did TDOC shares perform so poorly?

Higher advertising expenses in the mental health market, as well as an “elongated sales cycle” in chronic conditions as employers and providers of healthcare plans evaluate strategies.

TDOC’s services aren’t as good as first thought.

TDOC also took a $6.6 billion charge for impairment of goodwill, a non-cash charge the company excluded from its adjusted results.

The competition also has increased significantly and many of these first-move advantages are not holding up like they used to in tech.

The recent performance has been met with a bevy of analyst downgrades and tech growth as a sub-sector will have a hard time recovering until a lower interest rate sentiment comes back to sweep up the market.

Still, not a peep out of Cathie Wood on modifying her controversial strategies and that’s when we are staring down a barrel of multiple 50 basis point interest rate rises.

She was photographed partying in the Bahamas at some beach parties the day before the TDOC debacle, apparently, she isn’t bothered that much by her followers losing generation wealth.

If readers want to get back into tech growth after an easing of credit conditions, avoid buying ARKK and just buy a collection of strong tech growth yourself.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:02:142022-04-29 16:05:20Teladoc Implodes
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 29, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/mf-gates.png 258 196 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 11:00:532022-04-29 16:02:05April 29, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (PDD) April 29, 2022 - SELL-STOP LOSS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-29 10:20:042022-04-29 15:12:35Trade Alert - (PDD) April 29, 2022 - SELL-STOP LOSS
Douglas Davenport

April 29, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 29, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LOOKING AT THE LARGE NUMBERS)
(TLT), (TBT) (BITCOIN), (MSTR), (BLOK), (HUT)

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-29 09:50:142022-04-29 09:50:14April 29, 2022
Douglas Davenport

April 28, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
April 28, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AFRICA ADOPTS)
(BTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-28 14:41:532022-04-28 14:46:20April 28, 2022
Douglas Davenport

Africa Adopts

Bitcoin Letter

The Central African Republic has adopted bitcoin as legal tender which makes it the second country to absorb it as the official state currency after Central American country El Salvador.

Lawmakers unanimously adopted a bill that made bitcoin legal tender alongside the CFA franc and legalized the use of cryptocurrencies.

This makes The CAR the first African nation to use Bitcoin as their national currency. 

Many Bitcoin deniers proclaimed insanity when El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as the national currency and to be frank, the experiment hasn’t gone as smoothly as it could have. 

Many merchants still prefer hard US dollar bills to Bitcoin, but I would argue, that there are growing pains to go along with it.

There is honestly no playbook for this type of visionary legislation. 

The landlocked state is one of the planet's poorest and most troubled nations, with an economy that is heavily dependent on mining.

The introduction was heavily criticized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It warned of "large risks associated with the use of bitcoin on financial stability, financial integrity, and consumer protection" and with issuing bitcoin-backed bonds.

CAR has made this drastic decision in an aggressive way to attract venture capitalists and hedge funds. 

For all those investors who have the privilege of spending dollars and euros, not everyone is from a country where they trust their own currency. 

Just look at the Turkish lira.

I have some friends who bought luxury seaside villas in Ankara, Turkey because they thought that it was a guaranteed asset appreciation tool along with the added benefit of being able to take vacations to a gorgeous seaside resort. 

In hindsight, the investment has been an utter failure. 

Since they bought the property, the local currency has depreciated by 400% meaning they could have waited today and used only 25% of what they paid a few years ago. 

I don’t want to sound arrogant, but much of the world still measures their wealth in US dollars and if a country has no access to US dollars in real-time, then why not adopt Bitcoin as an alternative? 

Bitcoin is a guaranteed better store of value than the Central African Republic Franc and it is not even close.

Some of the emerging currencies have depreciated by 500% or 600% like the Turkish Lira or the Kazakh Tenge.

Bitcoin will definitely outperform the bulk of these marginal fiat regimes. 

In fact, most people have never even heard of these sub-Saharan African republics.

Many are landlocked and are limited economically. 

So I would argue that from a risk reward basis, it’s a great bet to make considering their local currency is worth less than the money it is printed on. 

Not only that, I would fully expect other poor African countries like Botswana, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Chad to ship on the Bitcoin wagon as well. 

The Central African Republic, which has gold and diamond reserves, is one of the world’s poorest nations. Years of violent conflict and a political crisis in the lead-up to presidential elections in December 2020 have had a severe impact on the economy and damaged relations with its international partners, leading to delays in the distribution of aid and some partners suspending budget support.

For many of these countries wrenched by years of war and strife, one might argue that Bitcoin could represent a beacon of financial stability along with a massive incentive to join the internet which only 11% of CAR citizens can claim. 

Why not hit 2 birds with one stone.

Like Chinese citizens jumped from cash, bypassed plastic credit cards, to deploy a digital payment system on their smartphone called Wepay. 

Why not go from the CAR Franc and skip any sort of solid fiat currency and go straight to Bitcoin.

Many sovereign countries without access to strong fiat currencies are coming to the same conclusion that it’s foundational to go the Bitcoin route than presiding over a currency that nobody in the world has ever heard about and wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole. 

Welcome CAR to the Bitcoin club. 

In 10 years, there will be a paradigm shift in which the consolidation of currencies will most likely leave us with a handful of Western currencies, the Chinese yuan, Russian Ruble, and crypto. 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-28 14:21:002022-04-28 14:21:00Africa Adopts
Douglas Davenport

Quote of the Day - April 28, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

"Brains are the new tonsils. Thanks to the Internet, you don't have to know
anything anymore," said comedian Paul Riser.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/chart2-bit-042822.jpg 306 458 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-28 14:20:052022-04-28 14:46:58Quote of the Day - April 28, 2022
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