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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Doge Effect

Bitcoin Letter

One of the more outsized second order effects occurring in the risk markets right now is the boost Dogecoin (DOGE) is receiving from the carnival atmosphere that is Elon Musk buying Twitter (TWTR).

DOGE is up 30% in the past week but down 500% from last May when DOGE experienced a euphoric ride up only to come crashing down.

It’s no surprise that Musk, through his EV company Tesla (TSLA), owns Bitcoin on its balance sheet and he’s on record lately admitting that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that Tesla owns, and they haven’t sold any.

Personally, he owns Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) and he specifically mentions the reason for owning Dogecoin is because he likes dogs.

On the surface, it sounds ridiculous that Musk would speculate on an altcoin just because he likes dogs, but people also thought it was crazy he would buy Twitter for $44 billion.

Musk explained he arrived at the conclusion to buy DOGE through a well-known principle called Occam's razor.

That is a philosophical principle that states the simplest variant is usually the best choice.

He then goes on to explain that he subscribes to a variant of Occam’s razor where the most entertaining variant is usually the best choice.

He is entertained by Shiba Inu dogs so he buys Shiba Inu Alt Coins represented as DOGE coin.  

Either way, his association with Dogecoin and Bitcoin has done wonders for its short-term price action with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surging.

Perhaps this could be the reason for the short-term stabilization of crypto.

Other factors that could be lifting crypto are U.S. dollar holders looking for alternative assets during the highest inflation in decades; some buying after the American mid-April tax deadline passing; the war in Ukraine and the U.S.’s OFAC sanctioning of Russian bitcoin miners and the ongoing uncertainty about whether the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

Musk also said last month that he wouldn’t sell his dogecoin, and would also continue to hold bitcoin and ether.

Earlier this year, Tesla began accepting dogecoin for merchandise purchases on its website. DOGE holders could be hoping that Twitter under Musk’s leadership may see more of the same — a use case for the token. Late last year Twitter unveiled a tipping function allowing users to send creators bitcoin.

The way DOGE achieves higher price discovery is for the potential for dogecoin to be given more utility on one of the biggest social media networks once Elon has official control of the company.

Every incremental bit helps.

Imagine DOGE freely mingling in and out of Twitter accounts that highly entertain or Musk floating the idea that for $3, every account can get a blue checkmark which has traditionally signaled a large and influential account.

Paying this $3 using DOGE could be the way that Musk integrates DOGE is onboarded onto the Twitter ecosystem.

Other use cases could also find their way into the DOGE coin ecosystem such as a $5 vanilla Twitter registration fee and with a total addressable market like Twitter and the chance to monetize the platform in a different way, I wouldn’t put it past Musk that he has some sort of plan for DOGE, BTC, or ETH.

Musk has been a huge proponent of free speech and during a Ted Talk interview he said buying Twitter “had nothing to do with economics.”

That thought right there could lead to a one-way avalanche of crypto payments embedded all over his new social media company.

Don’t write off DOGE, the richest man in the world might keep pushing it to the public and we already know that every associated Tweet about it results in a higher price.

 

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) April 26, 2022 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 15:54:212022-04-26 15:54:21Trade Alert - (TLT) April 26, 2022 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) April 26, 2022 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 14:55:412022-04-26 14:55:41Trade Alert - (SPY) April 26, 2022 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TSLA) April 26, 2022 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 14:04:582022-04-26 14:04:58Trade Alert - (TSLA) April 26, 2022 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) April 26, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 11:53:452022-04-26 11:53:45Trade Alert - (SPY) April 26, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Douglas Davenport

Trade Alert - (BABA) April 26, 2022 - SELL - TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-04-26 11:21:302022-04-26 11:21:30Trade Alert - (BABA) April 26, 2022 - SELL - TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 26, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 26, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY, MAY 20 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(FLYING THE 1929 TRAVEL AIR D4D, or WHY YOU NEVER WANT TO FLY WITH JOHN THOMAS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 10:06:482022-04-26 16:06:20April 26, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Flying the 1929 Travel Air D4D, or Why You Never Want to Fly with John Thomas

Diary, Newsletter

When you make millions of dollars for your clients, you get a lot of pretty interesting invitations. $5,000 cases of wine, lunches on superyachts, free tickets to the Olympics, and dates with movie stars (Hi, Cybil!).

So it was in that spirit that I made my way down to the beachside community of Oxnard, California just north of famed Malibu to meet long-term Mad Hedge follower, Richard Zeiler.

Richard is a man after my own heart, plowing his investment profits into vintage aircraft, specifically a 1929 Travel Air D-4-D.

At the height of the Roaring Twenties (which by the way we are now repeating), flappers danced the night away doing the Charleston and the bathtub gin flowed like water. Anything was possible, and the stock market soared.

In 1925, Clyde Cessna, Lloyd Stearman, and Walter Beech got together and founded the Travel Air Manufacturing Company in Wichita, Kansas. Their first order was to build ten biplanes to carry the US mail for $125,000.

The plane proved hugely successful, and Travel Air eventually manufactured 1,800 planes, making it the first large-scale general aviation plane built in the US. Then, in 1929, the stock market crashed, the Great Depression ensued, aircraft orders collapsed, and Travel Air disappeared in the waves of mergers and bankruptcies that followed.

A decade later, WWII broke out and Wichita produced the tens of thousands of the small planes used to train the pilots who won the war. They flew B-17 and B-25 bombers and P51 Mustangs, all of which I’ve flown myself. The name Travel Air was consigned to the history books.

Enter my friend Richard Zeiler. Richard started flying support missions during the Vietnam War and retired 20 years later as an Army Lieutenant Colonel. A successful investor, he was able to pursue his first love, restoring vintage aircraft.

Starting with a broken down 1929 Travel Air D4D wreck, he spent years begging, borrowing, and trading parts he found on the Internet and at air shows. Eventually, he bought 20 Travel Air airframes just to make one whole airplane, including the one used in the 1930 Academy Award-winning WWI movie “Hells Angels.”

By 2018, he returned it to pristine flying condition. The modernized plane has a 300 hp engine, carries 62 gallons of fuel, and can fly 550 miles in five hours, which is far longer than my own bladder range.

Richard then spent years attending air shows, producing movies, and even scattering the ashes of loved ones over the Pacific Ocean. He also made the 50-hour round trip to the annual air show in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. I have volunteered to copilot on a future trip.

Richard now claims over 5,000 hours flying tailwheel aircraft, probably more than anyone else in the world. Believe it or not, I am also one of the few living tailwheel-qualified pilots in the country left. Yes, antiques are flying antiques!

As for me, my flying career also goes back to the Vietnam era as well. As a war correspondent in Laos and Cambodia, I used to hold Swiss-made Pilatus Porter airplanes straight and level while my Air America pilot friend was looking for drop zones on the map, dodging bullets all the way.

I later obtained a proper British commercial pilot license over the bucolic English countryside, trained by a retired Battle of Britain Spitfire pilot. His favorite trick was to turn off the fuel and tell me that a German Messerschmidt had just shot out my engine and that I had to land immediately. He only turned the gas back on at 200 feet when my approach looked good. We did this more than 200 times.

By the time I moved back to the states and converted to a US commercial license, the FAA examiner was amazed at how well I could do emergency landings. Later, I added on additional licenses for instrument flying, night flying, and aerobatics.

Thanks to the largesse of Morgan Stanley during the 1980s, I had my own private twin-engine Cessna 421 in Europe for ten years at their expense where I clocked another 2,000 hours of flying time. That job had me landing on private golf courses so I could sell stocks to the Arab Prince owners. By 1990, I knew every landing strip in Europe and the Persian Gulf like the back of my hand. 

So, when the first Gulf War broke out the following year, the US Marine Corps came calling at my London home. They asked if I wanted to serve my country and I answered, “Hell, yes!” So, they drafted me as a combat pilot to fly support missions in Saudi Arabia.

I only got shot down once and escaped with a crushed L5 disk. It turns out that I crash better than anyone else I know. That’s important because they don’t let you practice crashing in flight school. It was too expensive.

My last few flying years have been more sedentary, flying as a volunteer spotter pilot in a Cessna-172 for Cal Fire during the state’s runaway wildfires. As long as you stay upwind there’s no smoke. The problem is that these days, there is almost nowhere in California that isn’t smokey. By the way, there are 2,000 other pilots on the volunteer list.

Eventually, I flew over 50 prewar and vintage aircraft, everything from a 1932 De Havilland Tiger Moth to a Russian MiG 29 fighter.

It was a clear, balmy day when I was escorted to the Travel Air’s hanger at Oxnard Airport. I carefully prechecked the aircraft and rotated the prop to circulate oil through the engine before firing it up. That reduced the wear and tear on the moving parts.

As they teach you in flight school, better to be on the ground wishing you could fly than being in the air wishing you were on the ground!

I donned my leather flying helmet, plugged in my headphones, received a clearance from the tower, and was good to go. I put on max power and was airborne in less than 100 yards. How do you tell if a pilot is happy? He has engine oil all over his teeth. After all, these are open-cockpit planes.

I made for the Malibu coast and thought it would be fun to buzz the local surfers at wave top level. I got a lot of cheers in return from my fellow thrill-seekers.

After a half-hour of low flying over elegant sailboats and looking for whales, I flew over the cornfields and flower farms of remote Ventura County and returned to Oxnard. I haven’t flown in a biplane in a while and that second wings really put up some drag. So, I had to give a burst of power on short finals to make the numbers. A taxi back to the hanger and my work there was done.

There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots. I can attest to that.

Richard’s goal is to establish a new Southern California aviation museum at Oxnard airport. He created a non-profit 501 (3)(c), the Travel Air Aircraft Company, Inc. to achieve that goal, which has a very responsible and well-known board of directors. He has already assembled three other 1929 and 1930 Travel Air biplanes as part of the display.

The museum’s goal is to provide education, job training, restoration, maintenance, sightseeing rides, film production, and special events. All donations are tax-deductible. To make a donation, please email the president of the museum, my friend Richard Conrad at RConrad6110@gmail.com

Who knows, you might even get a ride in a nearly 100-year-old aircraft as part of a donation?

To watch the video of my joyride, please click here.

 

 

 

Where I Go My Kids Go

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/john-thomas-and-kids.png 572 864 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-26 10:02:042022-04-26 16:03:13Flying the 1929 Travel Air D4D, or Why You Never Want to Fly with John Thomas
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 25, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 25, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HIGH STAKES OF TECH EARNINGS)
(AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (NFLX), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-04-25 16:04:112022-04-25 19:45:25April 25, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

High Stakes

Tech Letter

We get a deeper view into the current state of the tech market with the tech behemoths reporting this week.

I don’t expect a Netflix shocker, but the market doesn’t need one for tech stocks to trend lower.

Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple earnings are on deck at a time when $30 billion of outflows were sucked out of the equity market in the past 2 weeks.

As the falling knife dips lower, many traders are looking out for a decent counter-trend rally, I am too, but you better sell the rip as well. So we stay in a no man’s land of individual stock picking at a time when the garden variety of blasé indexing is now dead.

Another paradigm shift that needs to be addressed is the death of the FAANGs.

The writing has been on the wall for quite some time with Meta or Facebook signaling to the outside world that its business model is broken and news of today of Apple’s factory in Kunshan, China ordered for covid closure is a bad omen for Apple earnings.

At a broader level, Head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva today suggested sovereign debt defaults are coming down the pipeline which means the IMF will most likely construct a rescue deal that ends in understanding why the national debt mattered.

The world continues this sovereign crisis in all emerging corners of the world from Sri Lanka and Turkey because when the US Fed raises rates, it raises rates on the whole world.

Georgieva also said that Ukraine needs $5 billion per month for the Ukraine economy to survive and that economy is already down more than 50% year to date.

The continuing of debt plugging around the world doesn’t necessarily breed confidence in tech stocks as this industry is heavily reliant on globalization working and cheap rates.

Many sovereigns are starting to freak out about the debt dilemma as we see Japan’s yen forge ahead to 130 to $1 USD.

It appears that we are getting a temporary reprieve in oil and fertilizer stocks because China is so locked down that demand destruction will improve the balance of supply and demand.

Clearly, many of these external factors are unsustainable, and yet they are deeply affecting the Nasdaq index.

The rise in interest rates will have many unintended consequences and the one that matters most for us is delivering higher financing costs to the tech sector.

Without the globalization tailwinds, investors must ditch the double and triple standards of before and solely focus on the fundamentals of a tech firm.

What a thought!

Now that tech firms are accountable for their own performance, we will finally see who can punch above their weight.

Specifically, issues in dire need of netting out are the cloud, enterprise, and the state of the American consumer.

FAANG + Microsoft have lost more than $2.1 trillion in combined market value between them since December, representing nearly half of the S&P 500’s $4.4trn loss over the same period.

This has left five of the six in bear market territory with falls of more than 20%, with Apple the sole exception.

I am expecting strong numbers from Microsoft and Apple as part of branching out in the tech story, where software, semiconductors, cyber security, and product-driven names such as Apple are on the winners’ side of the ongoing digital transformation.

Yet, I believe Microsoft and Apple will use this as a convenient time to guide weak which won’t help the stock prices.

It appears as many of the strong tech performances have been met with giant selloffs and management is acutely aware of that.

Before, liquidity was what mattered and now that has tremendously reversed and the quality of earnings matters more than ever at this point.

 

 

 

 

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