Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUYER BEWARE)
(TIKTOK)
Global Market Comments
July 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MY MAD HEDGE ZERMATT STRATEGY SESSION REVIEW)
I am always impressed when a guest descends from the Matterhorn summit to attend my Mad Hedge Zermatt Strategy Seminar.
That was the case when Marc, a thirty-something hedge fund manager from the Czech Republic triumphantly marched into the meeting in his heavy socks and burnt face. The hotel asked him to leave his boots at the door. He had summited at 8:00 AM, and after a brief respite at the Hornli Hut, made it down by the Schwartzee gondola.
The event was well attended, with wealth managers, hedge fund players, and high net worth individuals making their annual pilgrimage to Zermatt. My usual Russian oligarch went missing this year for obvious reasons.
When I told them I thought I had a shot at a 100% gain this year, up from 56% so far in 2022, one guest ordered a round of schnapps for all.
There were more than the usual number of Americans in Zermatt. With the US dollar at parity against the Swiss franc for the first time in 20 years, how can they afford not to come to the idyllic mountain community? The Chinese were mostly absent, the 50-strong tour groups are a thing of the past.
The Russians were also gone, but not their money. Switzerland has been the weak link in the Russian sanctions. As a result, there is an unprecedented building boom underway in Zermatt, with ten hotels under construction, financed by Vladimir Putin’s buddies.
And there was the usual handful of Japanese, who I always take pleasure in shocking by asking them in their language who they are.
The verdant Alpine village suffered its hottest summer in history, with temperatures regularly topping 80 degrees. That's better than the 110 seen in London or the 115 in France.
The high mountain glaciers were melting at an unprecedented rate. The little creek outside my chalet rose some five feet to a raging torrent by the afternoon. Rivers in town came within a foot of breaching their banks. Indeed, there is talk that the ice holding the Matterhorn may melt, causing the majestic peak to crumble.
Making my rounds on the steep trails, I sadly learned that several of my favorite mountain restaurants did not make it through the pandemic and were shuttered. The bratwurst mit zwiebelsauce, weinerschnitzel mit pommes frites, and fine Valais chardonnays would have to wait.
The Swiss and cantonal governments provided the same sorts of stimulus we did here in the US. But with the borders sealed for two years, they couldn’t get the cheap foreign workers to make a go.
Indeed, it was a visit to the past for a lot of Swiss businesses, only catering to the much smaller market of their own countrymen.
I took off an afternoon to try something new. I hired a pilot and paraplane to jump off the Matterhorn base to glide 3,000 feet down to Zermatt, from 9,000 feet to 6,000 feet. The weather was ideal, the scenery spectacular, and our wing partially collapsed only once. My pilot skillfully steered clear of the many gondola cables and transmission towers along the way.
To watch the full unedited video please click here at https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/mhft-para-zermatt/
The wind died at the last minute so we had a crash landing. No broken bones this time.
Building Boom
There Will Always be a Switzerland
Didn’t Make it Through the Pandemic
There Will Always be a McDonald's
Gliding Off the Matterhorn
“Climb if you will, but remember that courage and strength are nought without prudence, and that a momentary negligence may destroy the happiness of a lifetime. Do nothing in haste; look well to each step; and from the beginning think what may be the end,” said Edward Whymper, the first man to climb the Matterhorn, in 1865. Four of the seven members of his party died in the descent and were never found.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 28, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS THIS THE NEXT MODERNA?)
(BVNRY), (SIGA), (EBS), (INO), (MRNA), (BNTX)
The growing concern for a potential global outbreak of monkeypox has sent shares of the biotechnology company behind the only approved vaccine soaring.
From a market value of $1.2 billion in May, Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) has now reached $3.4 billion.
More than that, this figure is expected to climb higher as the World Health Organization (WHO) recently declared monkeypox a “public health emergency of international concern.”
Bavarian Nordic wasn’t the only vaccine maker that benefitted from this announcement. Shares of other developers, notably Siga Technologies (SIGA), Emergent Biosolutions (EBS), and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), were also buoyed.
To date, there are roughly more than 16,000 recorded cases of monkeypox worldwide and 5 deaths. Most regions are categorized as moderate risk, while Europe is placed at high risk due to the number of infections in the area.
Siga Technologies rose 26% following WHO’s announcement. This company develops an antiviral named TPOXX, which is approved by the EU to use against monkeypox. The US has also stockpiled this drug despite not yet being approved by the FDA.
Meanwhile, Emergent Biosolutions climbed 11% after the news came out. While it’s also not yet marketed commercially for this particular outbreak, this biotech has developed a smallpox vaccine that could be applied as a preventive measure for monkeypox.
As for Inovio Pharmaceuticals, which rose 6%, the company does not have a monkeypox-centered product in its pipeline or portfolio. However, the biotech worked on an experimental vaccine against smallpox in 2010. This candidate is reportedly able to provide protection against monkeypox.
Despite all these candidates, Bavarian Nordic’s monkeypox vaccine, called Jynneos, is expected to remain the dominant vaccine. Apart from the US, it was also approved as a monkeypox vaccine in the EU and Canada.
Jynneos, which is administered in two doses, works as a non-replication live virus vaccine. It uses a modified or altered version of a virus that came from the same family as the monkeypox. The goal is to train the immune system to fight off monkeypox and smallpox infections.
Essentially, Jynneos is an advanced version of Emergent Biosolutions’ smallpox vaccine.
Considering the potency and safety of Jynneos, experts believe that no other smallpox or monkeypox candidate could rival Bavarian Nordic’s vaccine in the next 10 to 20 years.
Aside from the difficulties of developing a new and better vaccine, gathering data to prove the efficacy of the candidates would be highly challenging. Large-scale clinical trials involving humans might not be possible, both from an ethical and practical point of view.
Since it’s the only vaccine authorized so far, Bavarian Nordic is arguably the best bet for investors looking to capitalize on this demand.
Moreover, the biotech company has a strong balance sheet and can produce at least 30 million doses of its product. It also has several candidates in its pipeline, making it a safe play in this space.
In terms of competitors, the closest would most likely be Siga Technologies, which has a market capitalization of $1.3 billion. This biotech has a similar profile to Bavarian Nordic.
Meanwhile, its vaccine, TPOXX, showed little to no side effects. More than these, Siga recently received approval from the EU. That means gaining FDA approval in the US could very well be on the way as well.
Overall, there’s an apparent demand for the monkeypox vaccine. Right now, it’s only offered to individuals suffering from monkeypox or with significant exposure to infected people.
While it may not reach the heights of Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX) in terms of skyrocketing share prices, Bavarian Nordic’s vaccine is a great stepping stone for the company.
After all, Jynneos is basically a cousin to the smallpox vaccine that practically saved humanity.
So, if someone gets it, they would probably get the vaccine, just like you would rush to the hospital for a tetanus shot if you stepped on a rusty nail. Without these vaccines, life and the economy as we know them today would not be possible.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
July 28, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER 130 MILLION)
(BTC), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL)
No private foreign capital or investment will penetrate Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
Every Ukrainian under 40 years old is now making a mad dash for higher ground to put their money in safer places.
The Ukrainian hryvnia has lost 25% of its value while artificially suppressed and this is just the beginning.
It could trigger a vicious cycle all the way to zero where like a hot potato, Ukrainian citizens try to rid themselves of local currency as fast as possible.
Like I said, there are others out there with similarly non-influential currencies, pretty much every ex-Soviet republic not in the European Union in the likes of Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Armenia of the South Caucasus.
When you add up the population in the likes of Uzbekistan and such, then that totals roughly 130 million people.
These 130 million people, like El Salvadoreans, need to target securing alternative currencies.
For people who haven’t traveled to these esoteric places, US dollars are in high demand and hard to find and families hold on to them for dear life like a newborn child.
So, if the choices are Bitcoin or worthless paper, then between these two, the decision is rather straightforward.
Ukrainians are slowly coming to the realization that these are their options.
Recently, the Government of Ukraine has passed a law that legalizes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The law grants legal status to virtual assets. The law not only grants users the right to operate cryptocurrencies but also defines the clear rights and duties of all market participants.
Ukraine’s government also approved the law regarding cloud services as a whole.
The bill’s goal is to create conditions for the processing and protection of data when using cloud computing technology, as well as providing cloud services and determine the specifics of public authorities’ use of cloud services, as well as more efficient use of public resources through the introduction of new technologies.
The new law will expedite the entry into Ukraine of the world’s top cloud service providers – Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon Web Services (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) Cloud – and encourage the construction of data centers.
The Ministry of Digital Development has previously said that it planned to expand the market for “virtual assets.”
Virtual assets are divided into two categories in the draught law: secured and unsecured virtual assets.
A secured VA is an asset that verifies property or non-property rights, such as the right of claim on other objects like stablecoins, and is secured by fiat currency, securities, or any sort of offline asset.
All other sorts of cryptocurrencies and crypto-based assets, such as non-stable coins like Bitcoin, non-fungible tokens, and so on, are classified as unsecured VAs.
Therefore, it’s not surprising to find out in the latest data that the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptos in Ukraine has skyrocketed.
Non-profit donors looking for donations are also being paid via Bitcoin.
The rapid legislation of course would not have occurred if not for the Russian situation, but either way, adoption is adoption and add another 50 million or so Ukrainians to Bitcoin’s growth story.
Eventually, Africa and South America will join the adoption phase as they also preside over rapidly depreciating fiat currency.
I’m shocked that Argentina hasn’t ventured this way yet, put them down for the next country in the crypto queue.
Even if Bitcoin is suffering a bout of weakness due to exogenous shocks, the long-term price trajectory should find a floor because of the demand for these 3rd world countries.
“Our basic thesis for bitcoin is that it is better than gold.” – Said American Investor Tyler Winklevoss
