• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 13, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 13, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (NVDA), (MSFT), (BRKB), (TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-13 10:06:362022-07-13 11:45:56July 13, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Handle the Friday, July 15 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, October 15, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

These involve the:

(MSFT) 7/$200-$210 call spread             10.00%

(NVDA) 7/$120-$130 call spread             10.00%

(TSLA) 7/$500-$550 call spread             10.00%

(BRKB) 7/$220-$230 call spread            10.00%

(TLT) 7/$119-$122 put spread                   10.00%

Provided that we don’t have another 2,000-point move down in the market this week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.

So far, so good.

I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Tesla (TSLA) July 2022 $500-$550 vertical bull call spread, which I almost certainly will run into expiration. Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $50.00 expiration value - $42.00 cost = $8.00 net profit

(2 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $8.00 profit per option)

= $1,600 or 19.05% in 21 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, July  18 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday July 15. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

 

You Can’t Do Enough Research

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/john-and-girls.png 322 345 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-13 10:02:382022-07-13 11:45:31How to Handle the Friday, July 15 Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 12, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 12, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE LEADERSHIP BATON IS IN BIOTECH’S HANDS NOW)
(MRK), (SGEN), (CRSP), (VRTX), (BLUE), (BIIB), (LLY), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 18:01:012022-07-12 18:06:11July 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Leadership Baton is in Biotech's Hands Now

Biotech Letter

Biotechnology companies have taken the reins and are expected to outperform the general market in the near future.

To date, the Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) has been up by 2.41% while the iShares Biotechnology (IBB) exchange-traded fund has climbed by 2.47%.

Numerous crucial factors place this industry in an advantageous position for growth. Alongside other segments of the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, the biotechnology sector is essentially recession-proof.

With a roughly 40% fall in the biotech sector from 2021’s high, it’s highly likely for us to witness a boost in takeover activity in this space.

This is evident in recent reports of Merck (MRK) attempting to acquire cancer biotech Seagen (SGEN), as discussed in the June 30 issue of this biotech and healthcare letter.

The talks have progressed, and it appears that Merck is nearing the end of the process. The goal is to have the details worked out by the time the quarterly earnings report is released on July 28.

While no specifics have been made public, it is estimated that the larger healthcare company will pay a staggering $40 billion for this Seagen acquisition.

If this goes through, Merck will pay more than $200 per share for Seagen.

The news of this acquisition bolstered Seagen’s business as the stock rose by 4.6% at the time of the announcement.

This is welcome news given the perceived slowdown in biotech M&A activity since 2020. As a result, the idea fueled pessimism among investors who failed to see the big picture during this time period.

Analysis of 101 contracts signed by small, medium, and large biotechnology companies between January 2015 and June 2022 reveals that this year's contract volume and size are comparable to those of previous years.

In fact, there have been $17.7 billion in transactions so far in 2022. This translates to more than $13.9 billion in 2020 and $7.2 billion in 2021.

Some investors may be concerned about the quality of these acquisitions.

Even though the companies involved paid good premiums, the last 12 months' acquisitions were done at a big discount to the highest share prices of the businesses being bought.

To put it simply, there has been a problem with pricing in the sector as of late.

This is admittedly a "bittersweet" reality of recent biotech M&A transactions. As a result, market perceptions are clouded and investors are misled into believing that a much larger problem is brewing in the sector.

Executing megadeals is an obvious solution. This is why the Merck-Seagen merger is such good news for the industry.

The impact of this report suggests that large-scale M&A could be part of the path to the biotech sector's recovery.

The mere possibility of this transaction has already increased the SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund by approximately 20%.

In addition to Merck and Seagen, other biotechnology companies have been widely discussed as potential acquisition targets.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), which has a long-term partnership with Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), is a fan favorite. By the fourth quarter of 2022, the two intend to submit their sickle cell and beta-thalassemia treatment for approval.

Bluebird Bio (BLUE) is another company that has been on the radar whenever acquisition discussions begin.

This gene therapy and cancer biotech has been unnerving investors for months, even before the pandemic triggered an economic crisis, due to its lackluster performance. Despite this, its gene-editing program has enormous potential.

With a market capitalization of $368 million, it is an ideal candidate for Merck and even Moderna (MRNA). After all, both have been considering expanding its oncology program, and a dirt-cheap acquisition target appears to be an appealing option.

Biogen is another name associated with multiple interested parties (BIIB). Since its Alzheimer's treatment failed to materialize and deliver despite the biotechnology company exhausting virtually all available options to salvage the situation, the stock has yet to exhibit any signs of recovery.

After betting the farm on this candidate, Biogen has struggled to maintain its financial stability. In an effort to improve its cash flow and pay off its debts, the company has also been working overtime to advance the other programs in its pipeline.

Eli Lilly (LLY) and Roche (RHHBY), which have been working on their own Alzheimer's treatment, have recently been linked to Biogen.

With a market capitalization of $32 billion and a money-losing program, however, any transaction involving this biotech would require significantly more time.

Overall, it appears that biotechs are gradually regaining their footing. It is only a matter of time before all the pieces fall into place and the sector begins to move forward with full force.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 18:00:482022-07-14 00:59:50The Leadership Baton is in Biotech's Hands Now
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 12, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
July 12, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MT. GOX BACK FROM THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY)
(BTC), (MTGOX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 15:04:142022-07-12 18:00:58July 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mt. Gox Back From The Dustbin of History

Bitcoin Letter

We could shortly experience a supply dump of Bitcoin that would suppress the price of the digital gold even further.

Let me explain.

137,000 bitcoins could be dumped back onto the open market from the notorious Mt. Gox crypto exchange hack which happened 8 years ago.

This is bad news for crypto lovers who have already gone through the gauntlet this year.

Crypto has failed basically every inflection point and the infrastructure is crumbling around us as we speak.

This could be another “Lehman moment” after the numerous crypto exchanges that have already gone bankrupt.

Mt. Gox was originally founded in 2006 by Jed McCaleb as an exchange to trade Magic: The Gathering Online cards (hence the acronym MTGOX).

The card site only operated for a few months before Jed moved on to other ventures.

Then in 2010, Jed started to develop an interest in you guessed it, cryptocurrencies!

He exploited an inefficiency in the market as there wasn't an easy way for users to exchange bitcoin at that moment.  

He still had the mtgox.com domain lying around and used it to officially launch a crypto exchange.

After 10 months, Jed sold the exchange to Mark Karpelès at a valuation of 6 months' revenue.

After just a few months with Mark steering the ship, Mt. Gox doubled its trading volume to 20,000 transactions a day.

At the time, it was by far the biggest crypto exchange, handling 70% of all bitcoin trades.

In December 2013, Mt. Gox was doing all-time high revenue and bitcoin had recently breached $1,000 for the first time.

Happy days in 2013 for Mt. Gox or so we thought.

Then a hammer dropped out of nowhere.

By February 2014, customer complaints exploded as user accounts became inoperable. Sounds like now, doesn’t it?

On the 7th, Mt. Gox officially froze withdrawals, citing they needed a "clear technical view of the currency processes."

On the 10th, they admitted to finding a "bug in the Bitcoin software", leading to altered transaction details.

This effectively meant bitcoin could be resent as transactions were labeled as invalid.

After promising to resolve the issue, Mark and the board disappeared, and their website went offline.

On February 24th, a 'crisis management' document was leaked, revealing that Mt. Gox was insolvent after losing an estimated 850,000 bitcoin.

This represents 4% of the 21 million total bitcoin that would eventually be in circulation.

4 days later, Mt. Gox officially filed for bankruptcy.

Here’s where the story really gets twisted.

Mt. Gox released a statement on their website on 20 March 2014, stating that they had located 200,000 of the 850,000 missing bitcoin.

In 2015, Nobuaki Kobayashi was appointed as the rehabilitation trustee by the Tokyo District Court.

His role is to oversee the reconciliation of creditors.

As Kobayashi starts to repay creditors the 200,000 coins of bitcoin of crypto, it could flood the open market with liquidity at a time when bitcoin prices are struggling.

This could potentially knock crypto from $20,000 per coin to $15,000 in one day.  

Bitcoin has been madly exposed this year as an asset class that hasn’t been able to stand on its own 2 feet.

What started out with so much promise in November 2021 that many cheered Bitcoin higher, expectations have been left largely unmet.

This is why here at the Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter, we only recommended investing just a small fraction of one’s net wealth into this speculative asset class.

We were validated with that recommendation and anyone betting the ranch has no understanding of responsible risk control.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/mtgox-e1657661546910.png 282 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 15:02:102022-07-12 18:00:29Mt. Gox Back From The Dustbin of History
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - July 12, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.” – Said American Inventor Thomas Edison

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/thomas-edison-e1657661509865.png 350 227 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 15:00:472022-07-12 17:59:22Quote of the Day - July 12, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (ROKU) July 12, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 14:38:012022-07-12 14:47:36Trade Alert - (ROKU) July 12, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (META) July 12, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 11:27:082022-07-12 11:27:08Trade Alert - (META) July 12, 2022 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 12, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 12, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING FOR 2022)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-07-12 09:04:072022-07-12 15:29:16July 12, 2022
Page 8 of 12«‹678910›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top