Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
August 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(READY FOR LAUNCH)
(ETH)
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
August 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(READY FOR LAUNCH)
(ETH)
Grab your cowboy hats and enjoy the event.
It’s here.
Ethereum (ETH), the second most important and largest crypto, just ran its final tests before the launch which could turn out to be the most important upgrade in crypto history.
The price of Ether could experience a “buy the rumor and sell the news” reaction, but traders wanting to get into ETH should wait for the dip to buy.
Since its inception, ETH has been mined via a proof-of-work model.
It involves complex math equations that massive numbers of computers race to solve, and it requires plenty of expensive electricity.
Now Ethereum will change to a new model for securing the network called proof of stake.
The method requires users to leverage their existing cache of ether as a means to verify transactions and mint tokens. It uses far less expensive electricity and is expected to translate into faster transactions.
The climate change brigade must be in heaven!
It couldn’t be a better time to change over as electricity bills have soared over 500% in places like London, England, and tripled in places like Munich, Germany.
Ethereum’s transition has been repeatedly stalled for the last several years and testing hasn’t been smooth.
Developers know within seconds whether a test was successful. But they’ll still be looking out for many potential technical issues in the hours and days ahead before the launch.
Another key issue relates to transactions. Ethereum processes transactions in groups known as blocks. One clear indicator that the test went well will be if the blocks have actual transactions in them, and aren’t empty.
The last major check is whether the network is finalizing, meaning that more than two-thirds of validators are online and agree to the same view of the chain history. It takes 15 minutes in normal network conditions.
Since December 2020, programmers have been testing out the proof-of-stake workflow on a chain called beacon, which runs alongside the existing proof-of-work chain. Beacon has solved some key problems.
The upgrade certainly is good news set against a backdrop of an awful last 10 months for the price of ETH.
The price of ETH has also rebounded by 80% recently as the US Central Bank has signaled rate cuts next year.
The transition to a proof-of-stake model means that this will be highly attractive to the incremental ETH miner moving forward.
When ETH miners are in a healthier position, the entire ETH infrastructure benefits and is fortified.
For those playing the long game, as we inch closer to next year’s rate cuts, one must believe that every dip in ETH is a buying opportunity.
We have received strong positive signal lately with meme stocks roaring back to action going to the moon which means liquidity is plentiful and loose.
Liquidity needs to be generous if cryptos are to skyrocket.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell who stated that 2.5% is “neutral” effectively means he is ready to subsidize meme stocks, crypto, and other speculative assets and as the headwinds turn to tailwinds next year, it could prove to be a banner 2023.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” – Said German-American Writer Charles Bukowski
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
August 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I STILL HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE)
(TESTIMONIAL)
I seem to have a recurring problem.
People make so much money from my concierge service that they retire early, and I never hear from them again.
July was particularly egregious because I piled followers into selling short Tesla (TSLA) puts, followed by a stunning 57% move up.
That trade brought my 2022 year-to-date performance to +56.97%, a new high. The Dow Average is down -7.0% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 74.76%.
As a result, I still have one remaining Mad Hedge Concierge place open. I limit the service to only ten clients at any one time.
The goal is to provide high-net-worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.
It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support their own in-house global strategist full time.
The service includes the following:
1) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.
2) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.
3) Personal meetings with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions.
4) You get my personal cell phone number so I can act as your investment 911.
5) Early releases of strategy letters and urgent trading information.
6) More detailed recommendations on LEAPS, or two-year call options on the best high-growth names.
The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $12,000 a year.
To best take advantage of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, you should possess the following:
1) Be an existing subscriber of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader who is already well aware of our strengths and limitations.
2) Have a liquid net worth of over $250,000.
3) Possess a degree of knowledge and sophistication on financial markets. This is NOT for beginners.
To subscribe to Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, please email Filomena at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put “Concierge Candidate” in the subject line.
I look forward to hearing from you.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
August 17, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(VENICE STRATEGY LUNCHEON REPORT)
You really can’t beat the roof of the 14th century Hotel Danieli in Venice for an annual strategy luncheon.
You have a panoramic view of the Grand Canal. The Palace of the Doges is right next door and Saint Marks is around the corner. The canal is packed with every conceivable type of watercraft motoring back and forth.
The water teems with tourist-bearing gondolas filming every moment. How these many conveyances avoid crashing into each other is nothing less than amazing.
Having visited Venice for 54 years, I can tell you that there is something magical in the air. That’s because everyone there is having the greatest time of their lives, including the people who live there.
A hundred years ago, my grandfather passed through on his way to join Ernest Hemingway at the Alpine front in WWI. I first came to town 50 years later in 1968, when most of the tourists were Americans, shacking up in a bargain basement pensione.
The heiress Peggy Guggenheim was still living in her waterfront palace, enjoying the Bohemian lifestyle. Her father went down with the Titanic, so she received her inheritance early. Back then, I lacked the connections and the money to join that elevated social circle.
I was a regular visitor to Venice during the 1980s, flying my twin-engine Cessna direct from London, past the imposing Mont Blanc, and landing at Marco Polo airport. Once a thunderstorm hit me on landing that was so severe, we were stuck on the runway for an hour.
But you never forget that speedboat run from the airport to the city. Never tell your water tax driver you are in a hurry if you want to live to tell about it.
There the kids bought souvenirs and fed the hordes of pigeons. Alas, the pigeons are gone now, banned as a health hazard.
Today, Venice is chock full of Americans once again taking advantage of a Euro (FXE) at 20-year lows. But they are Americans of a different sort. The Danieli was full of incredibly wealthy young couples dressed to the nines and wearing tons of expensive jewelry. They were all Bitcoin billionaires who sold out at the top last year and were drowning in cash.
To say I was welcomed by my guests at the luncheon would be an understatement.
All said they had enjoyed the best investment year of their lives. They also admitted they had never made money in a falling market before. Those committed to the long side, like financial advisors and mutual fund managers, had massively outperformed the indexes. That’s why they flew in from Germany, France, Spain, and Rome.
I told them my story and I’m sticking to it. A weak first half will be followed by a very strong second half. It’s looking like I missed the bottom by two weeks, shares capitulating on June 15 and the Volatility Index (VIX) topping out at $35.
I promise to try harder next time.
Most investors are now sitting on double-digit losses for 2022 and are desperately trying to claw their way back into the market. That’s why it goes up every day. By comparison, Mad Hedge followers are up 57% during the same period.
My other predictions did pretty well too. Inflation has peaked and could be as low as 4% by yearend. Oil prices have also taken a nosedive, thanks to Russia’s catastrophic showing in the Ukraine War.
I finally did get to visit Peggy Guggenheim’s home this year, just one stop on the vaporetto from the Danieli. Now it is a museum featuring her favorite modern artists, most of whom were former lovers.
I did say Bohemian.
I think I’ll try to work in another Venice Strategy Luncheon next year. No Hotel Danieli though as it has been sold to the Four Seasons group and is in for a three-year gutting and modernization. I hope they don’t ruin it.
However, I hear the Orient Express goes to Venice as well. I better get those tuxes back from the dry cleaner!
Piazza San Marco in Venice 1968
Venice in 2022
Grandpa Venice 1918
“There is something so different in Venice from any other place in the world, that you leave all accustomed habits and everyday sights to enter an enchanted garden,” said the 19th century author Mary Shelley.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 17, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HERE WE COME VIETNAM)
(AAPL), (WMT)
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