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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 30, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(COULD OIL PRICES DOUBLE FROM HERE?)

June 30, 2023

Hello everyone,

Let’s talk about oil and oil prices and what stocks could be a great buy.

It’s a distinct possibility that oil prices could soar in the next couple of years.

And why is that you ask?

It all comes back to inflation potentially being a sticky problem. It may stay at an elevated rate longer than anticipated.

It seems that there are too many people -who are cashed up – going after fewer goods.
If you are a business now in the U.S. and you want to hire unskilled labour, the price seems to keep rising – about 5-10% every six months.

OPEC, earlier this week, suggested demand would be strong well into the future. The group expects oil demand to hit 110 million barrels a day in about 20 years pushing the world’s energy demand up by 23%.

Bill Smead, who is the CEO of Smead Capital Management expects crude prices to rise to between $150 to $200 a barrel over the next three to five years. That’s an increase of between 100% and $170% from Tuesday’s Brent crude price of around $74 per barrel.

Another portfolio manager, Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners, also sees bullish moves ahead for oil. Nuttall believes we have seen the lows for the year after Saudi Arabia announced voluntary production cuts.

Of course, much will depend on China’s economic performance in the second half of the year, and the ability of the U.S. and Europe to avoid an economic slowdown amid rate hikes.

Even allowing for all of this, research firm Rystad Energy believes upside pressure will materialize soon.

So, how do we as investors capture this move?

Occidental Petroleum would definitely be on my list as it plans to capture and store carbon dioxide. And this carbon capture business could be as big for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) as the cloud business AWS has been for Amazon (AMZN).

And another reason to buy OXY is John mentioned it in his last webinar as a LEAPS candidate.

 

                        Daily chart

 

                            Weekly chart

 

Nuttall names Cenovus Energy as another stock that will do well in the long term. He notes that this company has a high free cash flow yield of 12-18%. Furthermore, Nuttall expects Cenovus to hit its last debt target by the year-end, pivoting toward 100% of free cash flow returned to shareholders.

 

                            Daily chart

 

                          Weekly chart

 

 

 

Some housekeeping:

I’ll be leaving for the U.K. this weekend for a summer break.

I will be sending posts from the past that most of you have probably not yet read.

I will be back on deck in late July after a good rest.

Maybe I will catch you on Zoom this Friday (U.S. time) before I leave?

All the very best for the summer.

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 18:00:062023-06-30 18:18:45June 30, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 30, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 30, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE SECOND WAVE OF HOT MONEY IS HERE)
(MU), (SNOW), (ADBE), (ORCL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 16:04:552023-06-30 16:43:03June 30, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Second Wave of Hot Money is Here

Tech Letter

Here are four AI stocks that retail traders are going bananas for lately.

These retail participants are itching to get the most exposure to a batch of AI stocks that punch weight just below the tech oligarch level.

Volume remains highly positive as traders fan out to further AI stocks that didn’t benefit as much from the first tranche of hot capital.

If there is anything that could be considered a fat pitch right now in equity markets, then look no further than this collection of 4 rock-solid AI stocks that will make your heart melt.

These four stocks are gaining traction among retail investors as they search for new winners in the AI space.

 

  1. Micron (MU)

The semiconductor firm just beat its earnings and revenue targets, raking in $3.75 billion in revenue over the previous quarter.

AI servers have six to eight times the DRAAM content of a regular server and three times the NAND content which translates into elevated demand for Micron’s products.

In fact, some customers are deploying AI computing capability with substantially higher memory content.

The stock has lagged behind larger names like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, but retail net purchases for Micron were 18 times their daily average, even before the company released its latest earnings report.

 

  1. Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle's stock has exploded 40% year to date with shares briefly hitting a new record after a stellar earnings report. Total revenue for the 2023 fiscal year hit $50 billion, up 18% from last year.

On Wednesday, the database company also announced new AI capabilities within several of its cloud products, leading more investors to jump in on the stock.

Retail net purchases of the stock were about 145 times the daily average before its latest earnings report.

 

  1. Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe was another to benefit from upbeat earnings, with revenue notching a $4.82 billion record in the second quarter, up around 10% from the previous year.

The developer of digital-publishing software also recently unveiled its new platform, Adobe Firefly, a generative artificial intelligence platform for content creators.

Retail net purchases of the stock were about 18 times greater than the daily average prior to its latest earnings report. The stock is up 43% from levels at the start of the year.

 

  1. Snowflake (SNOW)

The company recently expanded its partnership with Microsoft and launched a new partnership with Nvidia to implement AI into its data cloud services.

The firm's partnership with NVDA and MSFT to integrate AI tools into their suite of services was welcome by retail traders who are jumping on the stock.

The common theme with these tech companies is solely focused on positive earnings numbers and what that will do is delay the recession that everybody has been waiting for.

The bears have been talking about a recession since the stimulus spike of the lockdowns, but the US economy and corporate tech have refused to believe this false narrative.

The truth is that tech companies still do what they need to do to push earnings higher and in turn deliver higher share prices to their shareholder.

Sure, there is belt-tightening and cost efficiencies taking place, but I view this more through a prism of technology firms becoming hyper-aware of leanness instead of sacrificing quality.

Twitter was correct in laying off 80% of its workforce because that 80% isn’t worth keeping on board for the splashy wage packets they accrue.

Now that we have a second level of tech companies joining the AI bandwagon, this could trigger another leg up for tech shares.

 

 

 

 

ai stocks

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 16:02:522023-07-11 20:37:34The Second Wave of Hot Money is Here
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - June 30, 2023

Tech Letter

“Microsoft isn't evil, they just make really crappy operating systems.” – Said Finnish-American software engineer Linus Benedict Torvalds who is the creator Linux, Android, and Chrome OS

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/benedict-torvalds.png 450 418 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 16:00:112023-06-30 17:10:20Quote of the Day - June 30, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (GOLD) June 30, 2023 - BUY LEAPS

Mad Hedge AI

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 15:20:562023-06-30 15:33:03Trade Alert - (GOLD) June 30, 2023 - BUY LEAPS
Douglas Davenport

THE SKINNY ON AI

Mad Hedge AI

(CRM), (NVDA), (MSFT), ($COMPQ)

One misunderstanding about generative artificial intelligence is that it is advertised as the panacea that will cure the economy and global business in one second. 

It’s not.

These types of technologies take time to absorb and integrate. 

The type of hype surrounding AI feels like every tech company should have 100X revenue next year.

That’s not going to happen right away. 

It’s obviously going to be an incremental phenomenon instead of a parabolic rise. 

People also seem to miss there will be a swath of AI failures that will disappear into the dustbin of history and everything in between. 

Just because Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are making hay during this hot money AI investor pandemonium, doesn’t mean all tech companies will.

In the long term, access to high-quality artificial intelligence will unlock a long-term productivity miracle.

The United States economy is suffering from a bout of unproductivity as young workers mostly spend their time perusing Instagram than tangibly delivering results. 

Moving a finger is a hard slog these days for Generation Z. 

The net result is poorly trending productivity gains. 

Productivity growth in the US has been a paltry 1%. 

This week alone brought two examples of generative AI's potential for economic output.

First, a new McKinsey study identified 63 generative AI use cases spanning 16 business functions that could unleash $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in economic benefits annually.

The same study found that generative AI could perform each of more than 2,100 detailed work activities such as communicating with others about operational plans.

Generative AI has the potential to change the anatomy of work, augmenting the capabilities of individual workers by automating some of their individual activities. 

Current generative AI and other technologies have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60 to 70 percent of employees’ time today.

Meanwhile, software company Salesforce (CRM) launched its new GPT enterprise products designed to boost worker productivity.

The company introduced "AI Cloud" at a New York City investor day. Salesforce says its AI Cloud product will allow marketers to auto-generate personalized content for customers and developers to auto-generate code.

Salesforce employees also showed off coming AI functions in the workplace collaboration platform Slack. 

It’s true that this AI wave is going to be the biggest that anyone has ever seen, but it will take time to get there. 

I think there are meaningful lags on AI's impact. And the idea there will be a surge in economic growth in the next seven to ten years because of AI and technology.

It won’t happen in 2 or 3 years. 

Goldman Sachs estimated recently that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million jobs globally to automation over the next decade. That's a nice way of saying a person may lose their job to a robot.

AI could also eventually increase the annual global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 7%.

There is the thought that AI will make production faster and more voluminous but the quality and understanding will be poor. Just like all those online chat assistants that companies use. If you have a very specific question not covered by the FAQs they just spit back unhelpfulness.

The takeaway is that there will be winners and losers, but it will take time.

In many cases, the outsized winner is someone we have never heard of that brings something new to the table. 

A critical part of this investor play is to avoid AI failures as well because there is bound to be a pile of body bags on the way to AI riches.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-06-30 13:43:062023-06-30 13:43:06THE SKINNY ON AI
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 30, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 30, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(TAKING OFF FOR THE 2023 MAD HEDGE EUROPEAN TOUR)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 12:14:222023-06-30 12:14:22June 30, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Taking Off for the 2023 Mad Hedge World Tour

Diary, Newsletter, Research

By the time you read this, I will be on a flight to New York City where I will meet with Concierge clients and host my Strategy Luncheon.

I will eventually end up at my chalet in Zermatt, Switzerland where I traditionally restart my year. Weather permitting, I will climb the 14,692-foot Matterhorn again. Is it seven times this year, or eight? I can’t remember.

Otherwise, I’ll rejoin Zermatt Search and Rescue again visiting old friends and pulling stranded Americans off of Alpine peaks. It seems I’m the only one up there who has a sense of humor and speaks English.

I leave you with a “mission accomplished.” We are closing out the first half up +64.39% so far in 2023. If all three remaining positions expire at max profit, we will be up +66.40%.

While most investors are only slowly becoming aware that we are in a bull market, you got the heads-up last October. Since the October 13 low, Mad Hedge has gained an awesome +76.15%! This is a year when a lot of people are wrong and YOU are right.

I have worked the hardest in my life the past year, and it is time for a break. I have also put myself through the most grueling training regimen ever, hiking 2,000 miles in torrential rains and snowshoeing another 600, all with a 50-pound pack.

Covid took a lot out of me in 2022.

Every year, it seems to get harder to keep the calendar at bay.

Getting out into the real world and soaking up new data and opinions is invaluable in shaping my own global view, and your performance benefits from it.

I will be traveling with my laptop and keeping in touch with the markets. While 18th century Internet service is passable, the bandwidth can be snail-like. So, unless I see something extraordinary, I will cut back on new Trade Alerts.

I never actually STOP working, I just change my office location from home offices in Incline Village and San Francisco, to a French castle, and Italian villa, or a Mediterranean mega yacht.

So, I deserve a break. I am risking over trading. I need to spend some time alone on a mountaintop, communing with the spirits, attempting to discover the new long-term market trends hiding themselves in the mist.

While on the road, I will continue writing my newsletter, giving you my daily dose of market insight. I will also be re-running some of my favorite research pieces from the past when my travel schedule does not allow Internet access.

This is to expose my thousands of new subscribers to the golden oldies and to remind the legacy readers who have since forgotten them.

I will be back in San Francisco in early August, glued to my screens once again for another year of toil in the salt mines. In the meantime, please feel free to email me. Concierge members can call me any time for free on WhatsApp.

In the meantime, I shall be raising a glass to all of you at dinner, the loyal readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Salute! Prost! Kampai, and Cheers! Thanks for making this letter a huge success!

If you want to take the opportunity to meet me in person, please find my strategy luncheon schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store and click on the country and city of your choice.

Thursday, July 6, 12:00 PM New York City
Thursday, July 13, 12:00 PM Seminar at Sea on the Queen Mary II
Thursday, July 19, 12:00 PM London England
Friday, July 27, 3:00 PM Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy
Thursday, August 1, 12:00 PM Florence Italy
Thursday, August 4, 12:00 PM Vienna Austria
Saturday, August 5, 12:00 PM Rome Italy

I look forward to seeing you there, and thanks for supporting my research.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

Mad Hedge Market Timing Index

 

Now Which One of These is for Austria?

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/john-thomas-red-wine.jpg 292 317 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-30 09:02:182023-06-30 12:14:08Taking Off for the 2023 Mad Hedge World Tour
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 29, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 29, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE RISE, FALL, AND IMMINENT RESURGENCE)
(CRSP), (VRTX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-06-29 17:02:392023-06-29 19:58:12June 29, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Rise, Fall, and Imminent Resurgence

Biotech Letter

The investing world is a roller coaster where investors' enthusiasm can experience sharp rises and precipitous drops.

One classic case study is CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), whose stock is currently hovering around $61 per share, a far cry from its zenith of $220.20 back on January 15, 2021.

But don't write off this biotech player yet; it's poised for a resurgence, and here's why.

The company is in the final stages of commercializing its pioneering gene therapy, exa-cel. This novel treatment, developed in collaboration with Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), aims to redefine the treatment landscape for patients battling transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD).

With approval requests already lodged with regulatory bodies, the company could be on the cusp of a financial windfall by Q2 2024, sending its stock skyward.

Shining a spotlight on this exa-cel opportunity, it's important to understand that current treatment options for blood disorders are far from ideal, involving blood transfusions and frequent hospital stays. Both physicians and patients are likely ready for a less disruptive alternative.

Exa-cel could be a game-changer for CRISPR, obviating the need for lifelong blood transfusions for certain SCD and TDT patients.

The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) recently suggested that the therapy could fetch a staggering $1.9 million per treatment. Meanwhile, the treatment is projected to reach global sales of $1.7 billion by 2028, propelling it into the blockbuster category.

Even with Vertex claiming a majority 60% share of profits, the opportunity remains substantial for CRISPR.

CRISPR and Vertex are primed to address the needs of the most critically ill patients, estimated to be around 32,000 in the U.S. and Europe.

The real charm, however, lies in CRISPR's potential for sustainable long-term growth.

The approval of exa-cel doesn't just promise immediate benefits but also unlocks the potential of the company's pipeline, acting as a proof of concept for CRISPR's gene-editing methodology.

Fast-forward a decade, and the company might boast a portfolio of blockbuster therapies.

Among these potential stars is CTX310, set to enter clinical trials soon. CTX310 is one of the company's few in-vivo therapies, delivering therapeutic genes, gene modulators, and gene-editing tools directly into patient cells.

CTX310 targets angiopoietin-related protein 3 (ANGPTL3) to mitigate the risk of cardiovascular disease, a prevalent concern linked to high rates of coronary artery disease.

In contrast to the relative rarity of SCD and TDT, coronary artery disease is the most common heart disease in the U.S., claiming 375,476 lives in 2021, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Another contender in the pipeline is CTX110, currently under testing for B-cell cancers, including B-cell lymphomas, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL).

The drug showed promising results in a phase 1 trial to treat large B-cell lymphoma, reporting an objective response rate of 67% and a complete response rate of 41% in patients with significant prior treatment.

The future looks promising for CRISPR's quartet of chimeric T-cell (CAR-T) therapies -- CTX119, CTX130, CTX112, and CTX131 -- being developed as cancer therapies. These therapies target specific proteins to suppress tumors or provoke an immune response.

Contrasting the typical clinical-stage biotech company, CRISPR, thanks to collaborative revenue, is in a healthier financial position.

As of Q1, CRISPR had $1.89 billion in cash reserves, ample to fund operations for the next three years. With potential exa-cel approval, these funds could further fuel research and development.

While it's hard to predict precisely where CRISPR will stand in a decade, its roadmap sets it apart from most clinical-stage biotech firms. The company has already demonstrated its ability to advance its science. Its success, though, will hinge on its capacity to transition into marketing and to manufacture its products.

Given its promising future, I see CRISPR Therapeutics as an excellent investment. Even though I've tempered my expectations about the market opportunity and challenges confronting both Vertex and CRISPR, the potential for exa-cel, which could rake in billions of dollars and serve as a functional cure, lends itself to investor optimism.

In the past, CRISPR shares have breached the $190 mark, translating to a near $20 billion market cap, or over 4x its current valuation. Granted, a fully commercialized pharma typically trades at around 5x sales, but an experimental pharma with a robust pipeline can trade at 50x sales without necessarily appearing overvalued. After all, pharma investing is about betting on future potential, or as we call it, "jam tomorrow."

Taking a long-term perspective and factoring in the cash reserves of over $1 billion, the potential to broaden the SCD/TDT market with Exa-cel 2.0 and 3.0, the technology validation, other pipeline assets, and a solid partner in Vertex, I believe CRISPR's stock is poised to reclaim a price above $100 in due time. There may be some turbulence along the way, but I anticipate exa-cel will one day fuel blockbuster sales exceeding $1 billion annually.

For context, consider Alnylam (ALNY), a drug developer in the field of RNA interference, which generated just over $1 billion in sales last year at a net loss of over $1 billion, yet sports a market cap of $25.1 billion.

With this perspective, the future for CRISPR looks bright indeed.

 

exa-cel

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