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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (MSFT) August 9, 2023 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-09 13:44:112023-08-09 13:44:11Trade Alert - (MSFT) August 9, 2023 - STOP LOSS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 9, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 9, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(THE US NATIVE AMERICAN ECONOMY)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-09 09:04:552023-08-09 15:55:34August 9, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A US Native American Economy

Diary, Newsletter

Since the market is as dead as a doorknob, at least until tomorrow’s inflation report is out, I thought I’d dive into the deep background of the country’s economy.

When I was remodeling my 170-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the chimneysweep crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus.

Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter penned in a childlike scrawl, written with a quill and ink, dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit.

Europeans have long had a fascination with our Native Americans. So in preparation for my upcoming European strategy luncheon tour I thought I would get myself up to date about out earliest North American residents.

Business is booming these days on Indian reservations these days, or it isn’t, depending on where they live. Of the country’s 565 reservations, some 239 have moved into the casino business and the cash flow has followed.

In 2010, Indian gaming reaped some $40.9 billion in revenues, up 4.9% YOY, or some $14,029 per indigenous native. That compares to $60 billion for the non-Indian gaming revenues for the same year, up 13% YOY.

Some, like the Pequot tribe’s massive Foxwoods operation just two hours from New York City, now the world’s largest casino, once had money raining down upon it. But the casino grew so large that it entirely occupied the diminutive Connecticut reservation allocated to it by an obscure 17th century treaty.

During the salad days, the profits were so enormous that an annual $250,000 stipend was paid to each officially registered tribal member. A poker boom helped. No surprise that the tribe grew from 167 to 665 members during the last 30 years. Today, the operation is burdened with $2.5 billion in debt, thanks to some bad investments and an ill-timed pre-pandemic expansion.

Casinos in more rural locations in the far west, distant from population centers, have fared less well. Those that contracted out for professional management from Las Vegas and Atlantic City firms, like Harrah’s, MGM, and Caesars, earn a modest living.

But the reservations attempting local management on their own fall victim to inefficiencies, incompetence, corruption, nepotism, over hiring of locals, and outright theft. Believe it or not, it is possible to lose money in the casino business, and some have had to shut down.

Overbuilding is another problem. It Northern New Mexico you can find a half dozen casinos within five miles of each other competing for the same customer. Most of their clients (read losers) are in fact local tribal members, the same individuals these houses are intended to help.

The 326 tribes that avoided the casino industry do so at the cost of a big hit to their standard of living. That explains why Native American median household income reaches only $35,062, compared to $50,046 for the US as a whole. Many, like the numerous Hopi, shun it because of their religion.

Without gambling there are few economic opportunities on the reservations, which is why they were given the land in the first place. The parched conditions of the west limit farming. Unemployment runs as high as 80% on some reservations, such as the White Mountain Apaches.

As a result, a high proportion of the country’s 6.9 million Native Americans are wards of the federal government, living on food stamps and other government handouts.

That’s not how it was supposed to be. The first modern reservation was set up for the Navajo tribe in 1851 at a baking hellhole on the Pecos River, with the intention of enforcing a primitive form of apartheid to ensure their survival. The legendary scout Kit Carson was hired to herd the hapless Indians to their new home.

He did it buy burning all the crops in their homelands and cutting down every tree. Because they surrendered early rather than fight, today they are the most populous tribe, with 160,000, owning the largest reservation, at 24,000 square miles, mostly in Arizona.

Those who signed treaties early survived, which gave them status as an independent nation but ceded all matters regarding defense to the federal government. In fact, the Iroquois, Sioux, and Chippewa separately declared war on Germany during WWII. Some even issue their own passports to attend the last Olympics. Those that didn’t have to settle for much smaller reservations or got wiped out.

In 1975, congress passed the Indian Self-Determination Act, which devolved power from the government to the tribes. Florida’s Seminole tribe won the right to open a casino in court in 1981, which was confirmed by the Supreme Court in 1987. After that, it was off to the races, with Indian bingo parlors sprouting across the country.

During the 19th century Indian Wars when hundreds of thousands died, the practice was to attack a wagon train, kill all the men, marry the women, and adopt the children. As a result, I am descended from three different tribes, the Delaware, Sioux, and the Cherokee, as are about a quarter of native Californians my age. So I tried to cash in on government largess by applying for tribal scholarships to go to college.

It was to no avail. Only those who can trace their lineage to a 1941 Bureau of Indian Affairs census and are one-eighth Native American can qualify. When whites married Indians 150 years ago, the common practice was to baptize them and give them Western names, obliterating their true origins.

They were also pretty casual with marriage records in the Wild West. Jumping over a broom doesn’t exactly make it into the county records. But we still have many of the wedding photos and it’s clear who they are.

I never did find out if that little boy got his Red Indian suit for Christmas, but I hope he did.

 

Is She Native American, French, or Both?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/goldilocks.png 690 460 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-09 09:02:552023-08-09 16:02:25A US Native American Economy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 8, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 8, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A DISCOUNTED PHOENIX SET TO RISE)
(BMY), (JNJ), (GSK), (MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-08 15:02:072023-08-08 20:29:50August 8, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Discounted Phoenix Set to Rise

Biotech Letter

The rollercoaster ride that is the equity market never fails to excite, surprise, and occasionally bemuse us. There's an erratic heartbeat in how it functions - illogical at times, downright whimsical at others. The upshot? Sometimes, great companies find themselves in the bargain bin of Wall Street – perfect for investors who love a good discount.

This is where Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) comes in.

In the rear-view mirror of the past year, Bristol Myers Squibb hasn't exactly been the star of the stock market show. Its financial pulse has been somewhat weak, with lethargic revenue growth and, at times, flatlining completely. A big part of this has been the loss of patent exclusivity on a once superstar medication last year, causing its top line to struggle.

Flash forward to BMY dropping its Q2 2023 financial report, and the question is whether the company met the Street's expectations. Well, not exactly.

Let's dive into the numbers. The Q2 2023 revenue was a hefty $11.23 billion, albeit a 0.97% dip from the previous quarter and a 5.6% drop year-over-year. Non-GAAP net earnings clocked in at $3.7 billion or $1.75 per share, a quarter less than my earlier prediction.

The culprit? A steeper decline in Revlimid's sales than expected. The blockbuster sales were $1,468 million, a sizable 41.3% YoY drop, thanks to generics flooding the market and lower net selling prices in Europe.

Cue the traders and investors giving a thumbs down to the financials, sending the stock price spiraling down by 4.2% in just two days.

Over half a year, BMY's share price shrank by a whopping 16%, even with a bunch of positive clinical trial results and a flurry of medicine approvals.

Meanwhile, the bigwigs of the global cardiovascular and oncology drug market, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GSK (GSK), and Merck (MRK), have been doing a victory lap.

Still, there’s a silver lining here.

Bristol Myers is currently strutting around with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 8. If you stack that against the pharmaceutical industry's average of 15.3, our friend Bristol Myers looks appealing. This is especially true when you consider the company is far from down for the count and has quite a few tricks up its sleeve to stage a solid comeback.

Projected revenue for Bristol-Myers Squibb for Q3 2023 lands somewhere in the ballpark of $10.8 billion to $11.92 billion, which, sure, marks a 4.5% dip from Q2 expectations. But hold onto your hats because Bristol-Myers Squibb's revenue is projected to comfortably clear the bar and pull in a cool $11.35 billion.

The heroes of this victory? Groundbreaking drugs like Yervoy and Opdualag have become hotter than a two-dollar pistol in the medical world.

We're talking about a Q2 2023 sales total of $154 million for Opdualag alone, up a jaw-dropping 165.6% from Q2 2022. And let's not forget this medical marvel only debuted in March 2022 and has been selling like hotcakes thanks to its performance in clinical trials.

What's more, Bristol Myers Squibb has been as busy as a bee, adding nine innovative medicines to its repertoire over the last three years. These new kids on the block are set to step up to the plate and replace older, soon-to-be patent-less drugs. They're also expected to drive sales growth into the stratosphere for the foreseeable future.

Bristol Myers Squibb is expected to report continuous growth, thanks to its proven clinical trials and potential to expand its labels. The company is already rolling up its sleeves to test the safety and efficacy of Camzyos for conditions like non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

As we look towards the horizon of 2025, Bristol Myers forecasts an impressive revenue of $10 billion to $13 billion from its freshest batch of products. Considering it pulled in $2 billion last year from these drugs, that's not too shabby. But don't think it’s resting on its laurels. The company is already testing over 50 clinical compounds across a smorgasbord of trials.

Let's also pay attention to Bristol Myers' attractive dividend profile.

The company currently offers a yield of 3.5%, dwarfing the S&P 500's average of 1.5%. Plus, it has bumped its payouts by 43% over the last five years.

With a cash payout ratio of around 42%, there's much room for this trend to continue into the foreseeable future.

Despite recent stumbles on the revenue and stock value front, BMY is no slouch. Its unyielding character and unwavering commitment to ploughing funds into fresh offerings signal a robust comeback on the horizon.

So, in the immortal words of an old Wall Street sage, it’s time to "Buy low, sell high,” and BMY is looking like quite a bargain right now.

 

bristol myers squibb

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-08 15:00:052023-08-22 18:05:30A Discounted Phoenix Set to Rise
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPOT) August 8, 2023 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-08 10:12:372023-08-08 10:12:37Trade Alert - (SPOT) August 8, 2023 - STOP LOSS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 8, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 8, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(THIS WILL BE YOUR BEST-PERFORMING ASSET FOR THE NEXT 30 YEARS),
(IYR), (PHM), (LEN), (DHI), (TLT), (HYG), (MUB), (SPY)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-08 09:04:382023-08-08 15:30:25August 8, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 7, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(THE COMMON PROBLEM OF EARNING $500K AND LIVING WITH DEBT)

August 7, 2023

 

 

Hello everyone,

The rules around money management appear to be relatively simple.

Don’t spend more than you make.

Don’t buy things when you don’t have the money to cover it with cash or a credit card.

Pay off credit cards at the end of the month, so interest is not accrued.

Keep a pot of money aside in another bank account for emergencies.

Pay yourself first.

Invest on a consistent basis.

Simple rules, yet many of us break the rules and find ourselves in deep water. Why is that? The answer is often complex and often relates to our behaviour around money.

 

 

Let me share a story with you.

My father was a dentist. He ran a practice for 47 years and served as a dentist in the war. For many years, my mother who was a trained nurse was his dental nurse. My father was an excellent dentist, but he was poor at running the business side of his practice. He often didn’t charge patients for examinations and would often let people only pay half price for dentures he had made them. This is admirable, no doubt, but it is not sustainable when you are running a business and have bills to pay to support your family.

So, my mother basically took over the management of the dental practice and clearly itemized the cost of procedures, which was placed on the wall in the waiting room. There was a possibility to pay in installments, but it was strictly monitored by my mother. In essence, she became the dental nurse and the finance manager of the practice.

My mother taught me a lot about financial management. Her mantra was to live simply, grow your wealth and invest in education. I lived a comfortable life growing up, but we never went on grand holidays or trips, didn’t ever eat out, did all the domestic chores ourselves and mowed the lawns, and tended to the garden ourselves as well. We were happy with simple pleasures. The home was always filled with music, and books were a go-to when you were looking for something to do. All meals were homemade from scratch and there were always baked treats on the kitchen bench to enjoy. We had many cats and dogs as pets, and they were treated as part of the family. In fact, it was often the case that dogs in the street where we lived would crash at our place for the day, where they could chill out and enjoy attention and love from us. Their owners often left them alone during the day, and, as we know, pets crave companionship. Dinnertime conversations had an intellectual depth to them as the whole family shared an interest in history, literature, and finance.

My mother kept a book that monitored how we spent our money. So, every month, we knew exactly how much we had spent and where it had been spent. Every three months at least, funds would be invested in a specific item – be it a share, index fund, gold, or even bonds. In that way, extra income that was made from the practice wouldn’t get burned in day-to-day spending. The big-ticket spending item in our household was education. My brother has a Ph.D. in European History, and I finished my 10 years of study with an MBA.

There was no keeping up with the Jones in our household, and no desire to participate in the commercialization of special holidays like Easter, and Christmas. We observed the holidays, but our celebrations were simple.

The point here is that it is not necessary to spend a lot of money to have a good life. And how much you earn does not determine how well you will live. It is what you do with the funds and how you behave with that money that controls what your life and your future will look like.

When you get a pay rise, what do you do with that extra income?

You survived without it before, so wouldn’t it seem prudent to put it aside in a savings account for emergencies? There are high-yielding savings accounts out there. You just need to do some research. For example, there is one called the Lending Club High-Yield Savings Account which offers 4.50% (APY). It has no minimum balance requirement after $100 to open the account, no monthly fee and it offers an ATM card.

Or you could pay yourself first by allotting a portion of it to an investment.

Building a framework helps.

For a financially sustainable lifestyle, simple math is involved.

What are your fixed costs each month or quarter and do you make enough to cover these?

Mortgages, car payments, childcare, taxes, utilities, food, school fees, insurance, etc.

Then work out where the rest of your money goes by thinking in categories.

Travel, personal spending, entertainment, dining out, activities/sports for the children.

Can you cover these costs easily without diving into your credit card each month?

The best way to think about your spending is to ask yourself questions?

Do I need this fancy car? Do I need two cars?

Do I need a fancy vacation every year?

Do I need to dine out several times a month?

Do I need to pay for all these camps/activities and sports for my children?

If paying for all this lifestyle is crippling you, then why are you doing it?

Are you in the comparison game? Are you listening to that little voice in your head that is comparing your finances to others?

Stop doing this. It’s a waste of time and energy and will bring you no joy.

You need to get to a place where your happiness is not dependent on having things. A happy and contented person is one who has plenty of savings and investments and is not in a panic about paying bills each month. You just need to shift your perspective a little.

You will enjoy life more and have much less stress and grow your wealth too. Surely, a win-win situation.

Have a great week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-07 20:00:352023-08-07 23:23:50August 7, 2023
Douglas Davenport

AI DARLING OR DELUSION

Mad Hedge AI

(AI), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (AAPL), (META), (MSFT), (NVDA), (TSLA), (BKR)

Artificial intelligence (AI) took center stage in 2023 as the investment sweetheart, with the big tech leviathans basking in the limelight. 

All eyes have been on the “Magnificent Seven” – Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) – as they dance in the glow of their massive market capitalizations on the grand stage of the broad market (SPX)(QQQ).

Yet, hidden in the wings and enjoying a spectacular resurgence in 2023 following a calamitous act in 2022 are several AI and AI-adjacent rising stars, such as C3.ai (AI).

Now, don't be misled by the meteoric 250% ascension of C3.ai's stock this year. The numbers behind the scenes haven't exactly been show-stopping. 

While C3.ai had a promising opening act with a year-over-year revenue growth peaking at 42%, the company's balance sheet still stubbornly shows red, and its last quarter's revenue was more or less a carbon copy of the previous year. 

In 2022, C3.ai flaunted an impressive 38% revenue jump. However, the story told a different tale in 2023, which saw a rather modest growth of 6% to $267 million. 

A glance at the horizon of fiscal 2024 predicts a growth rate oscillating between 10% and 20%. The company's tapering progress was conveniently pinned on macro headwinds that allegedly led corporate giants to reassess their software expenses. 

Let’s further dissect this multilayered enigma. 

A chameleon of sorts, C3.ai has a history of evolving with the times. Starting as C3 Energy, it later donned the garb of C3 IoT (Internet of Things) before finally settling on the moniker of C3.ai in 2019, just as AI began to twinkle in the market's eye.

C3, despite its shiny AI cloak and a lucrative IPO back in 2020, is mostly dishing out the same machine learning algorithms it was developing pre-rebranding. Sure, these algorithms have the knack to automate and speed up tasks, but tagging them as groundbreaking AI tools is an area where the bears and bulls lock horns.

Mainly courting large-scale energy, industrial, and governmental clients, C3 rakes in over 30% of its revenue from a joint operation with energy titan Baker Hughes (BKR) — though that's due to wind down in fiscal 2025. 

Meanwhile, in response to slowing growth, C3 made the significant decision last year to transition from subscription to usage-based fees. This strategy aims to attract potential customers during tough economic times. However, this change could decrease short-term revenues and make their offering less appealing, as customers may perceive this pricing model as less predictable and harder to budget for.

It's also impossible to overlook the formidable competitors breathing down C3's neck: Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft's Azure, Google Cloud Platform (GCP), and other cloud infrastructure titans already offering comparable AI solutions tailored for enterprises.

Tech analysts are raising their glasses to C3, setting price targets even higher, but the consensus figure sits at $24.36. If you’re keeping score, this represents a potential plunge of nearly 40% from C3.ai's current stock price. With the stock's price-to-revenue multiple at 15 and over 4x its book value, it seems like it might have reached its peak, given the present state of the business.

Yet, the winds could change if the company outperforms in the upcoming year. They're forecasting revenue to hit up to $320 million for fiscal 2024 (wrapping up in April). 

That would represent a 20% leap from the previous fiscal year, a marked improvement from last year's rather drab sub-6% growth. However, investors might have been hoping for a bigger pie, considering AI's the rising star this year.

Peering into C3.ai's future growth prospects is akin to looking through a smoky glass — the company's sudden transition to usage-based fees and the potential departure of Baker Hughes in 2025 only exacerbate this uncertainty. 

Toss in the fact that C3.ai is still very much painted red with unprofitability based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), and you've got a company whose financial health raises more questions than it answers.

By no means am I asserting that C3.ai's voyage is bound to hit an iceberg. Still, the numerous "maybes" clouding the company's landscape aren't very reassuring. 

Unless you're an adrenaline junkie eager to strap in for this roller-coaster, adopting a "wait and watch" stance with C3.ai may be wise to see if it can genuinely metamorphose into a high-growth stock.

          Midjourney prompt: "AI Darling or Delusion"

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ss-080723-mhai-c2.jpg 690 1051 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-08-07 17:23:382023-08-07 17:31:02AI DARLING OR DELUSION
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 7, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 7, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT THE DOWNGRADE MEANS FOR TECH)
(AA+)

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