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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (CRM) November 10, 2023 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 14:08:062023-11-10 14:08:06Trade Alert - (CRM) November 10, 2023 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 10, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ARTISANAL TECH FEELS THE HEAT)
(BMBL), (PTON), (MTCH)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Artisanal Tech Feels The Heat

Tech Letter

Bumble (BMBL) is a dating app in which women initiate communication first and their CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd deciding to quit offers deep insight into the state of tech firms.

Remember that Wolfe Herd is the person who established this app and presided over an 83% decline in share price since an initial public offering over two years ago.

Clearly, the writing was on the wall for Wolfe Herd, but she shouldn’t receive all the blame.

There is an industry-wide malaise occurring in some sub-sectors of technology and smartphone dating apps are one of them.

Some investors have started to gain a sense that these apps don’t have enough bang for the buck and these business models are gaining in popularity.

In the past few weeks, the popular dating app Tinder announced a new feature rolling out a new subscription tier for $500 per month boasting it would unlock premium profiles at that price point.

Asking for $6,000 per year is a serious overreach for a dating app and I believe that type of ask will alienate some of the core users.

These apps are supposed to scale but not at $6,000 per year.

What else is the big challenge for Bumble?

How to get consumers to commit money to a dating app when the economy is so uncertain?

That’s the conundrum.

In the months after the pandemic, online dating apps became the hottest ticket in town as the only way to not sacrifice a dating life.

Bumble, which currently has 40 million active monthly users across its portfolio of apps, is now fiercely fighting for users with its competitor Match (MTCH).

As with some of these niche tech businesses, opening up the economy from the lockdowns has been a tough pill to swallow as it relates to the knock-on effect on future sales.

In terms of pure market sentiment, investors have determined a strong likelihood that the lockdowns were the high water mark for these artisanal apps. 

Unfortunately, these sub-sector stocks are labeled as a time and place stock and not one that is worth holding in times of chaos and upheaval.

We are far from the start-up frenzy peak where entrepreneurs could make hopes based on fantasies into an app and concoct a targeted addressable market.

It’s not going to cut it anymore, because the bar is so much higher.

In the era of cheap money, funding niche sub-sectors of technology was still quite fashionable and mainstream.

I would even say it caught fire.

Then there is the issue of artificial intelligence concerning how this type of technology delivers poison to the innards of the business model.

How?

Dating apps could easily turn into bots chatting to bots to monetize users with no real value. This would constitute a fake business. Ad sponsors could be paying for this to happen. AI integrates into online dating apps quite poorly because it strips away the authenticity of the end user which undermines communication and the underlying asset.

A fake business would mean a crash in the underlying equity value. Of course, we are not even close to that possibility right now, but keep in mind that force-feeding management to one-up AI capabilities could unearth some bizarre unintended consequences.

Ultimately, the end of 2023 is a dynamic time in technology because the trajectory of companies has never been so uncertain, fluid, and challenging at the same time.

Expect quite a few of these artisanal apps to get swept into the dustbin of history.

Readers need to stay away from sub-sector technology stocks like Peloton (PTON) and instead go for stocks that have broader exposure to more wallets where artificial intelligence will act as a tailwind.

Plus, many people use Instagram, X, or Facebook for dating anyway. No need to overcomplicate life.

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Move fast and break things.” – Said Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/mark-zuckerberg.png 588 376 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 14:00:102023-11-10 15:18:07November 10, 2023 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (CCJ) November 10, 2023 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-10 13:43:402023-11-10 13:57:14Trade Alert - (CCJ) November 10, 2023 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(THE OPIOID CRISIS AND ITS EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY)

November 10, 2023

 

Hello everyone,

While the market is dancing along nicely to year-end, I’m going to focus on an issue that can affect anyone at any time in their life.

Drugs.

Am I worried about my son, Alex, ever taking drugs?  No. He crosses the road when he sees a person walking toward him, who is smoking a cigarette because he can’t stand the smell of the smoke. 

Alex’s first semester at college has been unremarkable.  He has done the work, received good grades, and has joined the Chess Club.  He sometimes even tells me he is bored.  But I never think that is a bad thing.  After all, boredom can stimulate and inspire us to get lost in new ventures and hobbies that might otherwise have never been explored. 

I had an interesting conversation with him the other day.  His major is tech, while his roommate’s major is business.  Alex is quiet and conservative, while his roommate is a party boy and often stays out until 4 a.m.   Furthermore, sometimes, he just never comes back to the room at all over the weekend.  But that is not surprising behaviour for a young adult teenager.  What is a bit concerning is his roommate’s pill-popping, which Alex tells me has an impact on the way he behaves.   

Alex did not tell me what he was taking, only that they were illegal.

The opioid crisis is a scourge on our society.  Is life so confronting that some people have to get a buzz from a pill to make it to the end of the day?

The statistics are alarming!

Worldwide, about 296 million people (or 5.8% of the global population aged 15-64 years) used drugs at least once in 2021.   Among them, about 60 million people used opioids.  About 39.5 million people lived with drug use disorders in 2021.  Most people dependent on opioids use illicitly cultivated and manufactured heroin, but the proportion of those using prescription opioids is growing.

More than 100 people die every day from opioid overdoses.

Overall life expectancy in the U.S. has declined for three years in a row due in large part to the opioid epidemic, reversing a half-century trend.

Overdoses kill more Americans than car crashes or gun violence.

Addiction contributes to incarceration.  In 2010, 85% of the U.S. population was incarcerated for substance-related reasons, with over half of all inmates diagnosed with substance use disorder.

 

 

In economic costs

Reduced labor force participation

Decreased employment

Productively loss.

Extra health costs.

Permanent injury & chronic health conditions.

Reported opioid overdose deaths: 

2010 – 21,089

2017 – 47,600

2020 – 68, 630

2021 – 80, 411

Opioids have analgesic and sedative effects, and such medicines as morphine, codeine, and fentanyl are commonly used for the management of pain.  Opioid medicines methadone and buprenorphine are used for maintenance treatment of opioid dependence.  After intake, opioids can cause euphoria, which is one of the main reasons why they are taken for non-medical reasons.  Opioids include heroin, morphine, codeine, fentanyl, methadone, tramadol, and other similar substances.  Due to their pharmacological effects, they can cause difficulties with breathing, and opioid overdose can lead to death.

In the 1980s and 1990s, I worked in the Drug and Alcohol Unit and the Psychiatric Unit of the Toowoomba Hospital.   I was the Administration Manager for those units.  I learned a lot about the effects of drugs and alcohol on individuals, and the impact on families and the wider community.    White-collar workers,  blue-collar workers, male and female, young and old – all are at risk of being a statistic in the opioid epidemic.  Those people who took drugs for non-medical reasons were in emotional pain, except the panacea turned into an additional crisis which exacerbated the person’s despair and feelings of hopelessness.  A truly sad situation.

We can point to the pharmaceutical industry and its aggressive promotion of prescription drugs as one of the main elements contributing to the opioid epidemic in the U.S.  Advertising of drugs is at saturation point on free-to-air T.V. in the U.S.  Conversely, in Australia, promotion of drugs in television or print media is at a minimum.  There are restrictions on the direct advertising of pharmaceuticals to patients, as well as regulatory and professional actions, which have resulted in different patterns of prescribing and outcomes in Australia.

Nonetheless, opioid prescribing has increased gradually in Australia over the last three decades.  Each time a new opioid formulation becomes available, it is enthusiastically prescribed.  That brings us to look at the relationship between the drug representative and the G.P.   The payoffs for the G.P. when s/he promotes the drug are usually quite attractive.  Surely, lack of remuneration would lessen the likelihood of G.P.’s being so eager to prescribe these drugs, knowing the tendency for some patients with non-medical conditions to abuse these drugs.

 

 

 

 

 

Take care.

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 10, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 10, 2023
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL VETERANS DAY ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (TLT) November 9, 2023 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-09 13:33:592023-11-09 13:33:59Trade Alert - (TLT) November 9, 2023 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (BRKB) November 9, 2023 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-11-09 12:47:572023-11-09 12:52:39Trade Alert - (BRKB) November 9, 2023 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 9, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 9, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AN UNDERDOG’S LONG-TERM PLAY)

(MRK)

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