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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 10, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(SENSIBLE INVESTING TIPS BY BUFFETT TO START THE NEW YEAR)

January 10, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

I want to sink into your psyche today some investing advice by Buffett.  You would do well to write these on a piece of paper and stick that on the wall above your computer or your desk and read it every day.

We might know the hard and fast rules of investing, but life has a habit of tipping the scales sometimes, where we temporarily lose our balance and are not thinking clearly, and these are the times we sometimes slip up in our ability to stick to the plan and the rules. 

So, let’s jump into those tips.

1. Design a broad portfolio.  The goal of the non-professional investor is not to pick winners – but rather own a cross-section of businesses that in the aggregate are bound to do well.  This is why Buffett always advises investors to invest in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, which will achieve this goal.    He suggests checking out Vanguard.  Interestingly, Buffett revealed 10 years ago that he would direct 10% of the cash to go into short-term government bonds and 90% to a low-cost, S&P500 index fund.

2. Steer clear of the financial salesperson.  Professional money managers and advisors (on Wall Street or indeed anywhere) are incentivized to recommend various securities.  The fact is that they rarely beat the market.  Buffett’s words here: “You just have to recognize you’re dealing with an industry where it pays to be a great salesperson…There’s a lot more money in selling than in managing…if you look to the essence of investment management.”  (I learned this lesson the hard way and am now very wary).  And please note, that more than 95% of financial newsletters are rubbish, written by people with no investing experience. 

3. You don’t need to be a Math genius. Buffett says you don’t need to excel at technical analysis or mathematical calculations to find great stocks.  Buffett comments that “if you need to use a computer or a calculator to make the calculation, you shouldn’t buy it” (the stock). 

4. When you buy a stock, you own part of the business.  Buffett only buys something when he grasps the intrinsic value of an asset, or the discounted value today of the cash that a business generates in the future. 

5. Market action is largely driven by emotions.   Fear and greed should guide investors on when to buy and sell.  Buy when there is fear and sell when there is greed.  Simple as that. (For long-term investors, just average in and stick the investment in the bottom compartment of your cupboard).   Buffett reminds us of the fact that math and a high IQ don’t necessarily help.  So, leave the ego boxed up if you topped your class in Math – it may get in the way here...  Buffett’s words: “Higher mathematics may be dangerous, and it will lead you down pathways that are better left untrod.” He goes on to remind us that “we do not sit with spreadsheets…we just see something that obviously is better than anything else around, that we understand.  And then we act.”

6. After a loss, move on.  Look forward.  No extra detail is needed here.

7. Steer clear of declining businesses.   When Buffett started on his investing journey, he used to buy cheap, failing businesses that he called “cigar butts.”  But that strategy is not beneficial in the long run.   Real money is going to be made by being in growing businesses, and that’s where the focus should be.  Buffett is now known for seeking out wonderful businesses that he could buy at fair prices.  He transformed Berkshire Hathaway from a small, failing textile mill into a near-$800 billion multifaceted juggernaut.

 

 

The Marina in Mackay

 

My son, Alex, at the Mackay Marina

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-10 12:00:182024-01-10 10:36:27January 10, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 10, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 10, 2024
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(THE TWO CENTURY DOLLAR SHORT), (UUP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-10 09:04:422024-01-10 10:03:56January 10, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Two-Century Dollar Short

Diary, Newsletter

Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar (UUP) for the last 242 years has been down.

Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten-dollar bill out of your wallet and you’re looking at a world-class horn dog, a swordsman of the first order.

When he wasn’t fighting scandalous accusations in the press and the courts, he spent much of his six years in office orchestrating a rescue of our new currency, the US dollar.

Winning the Revolutionary War bankrupted the young United States, draining it of resources and leaving it with huge debts.

Hamilton settled many of these by giving creditors notes exchangeable for then-worthless Indian land west of the Appalachians.

As soon as the ink was dry on these promissory notes, they traded in the secondary market for as low as 25% of face value, beginning a centuries-long government tradition of stiffing its lenders, a practice that continues to this day.

My unfortunate ancestors took him up on his offer, the end result being that I am now writing this letter to you from California—and am part Cherokee, Delaware, and Sioux.

It all ended in tears for Hamilton, who, misjudging former Vice President Aaron Burr’s true intentions in a New Jersey duel, ended up with a bullet in his back that severed his spinal cord.

Since Bloomberg machines weren’t around in 1782, we have to rely on alternative valuation measures for the dollar then, like purchasing power parity, and the value of goods priced in gold.

A chart of this data shows an undeniable permanent downtrend, which greatly accelerated after 1933 when FDR banned private ownership of gold and devalued the dollar.

Today, going short the currency of the world’s largest borrower, running the greatest trade and current account deficits in history, with a diminishing long-term growth rate is a no-brainer.

But once it became every hedge fund trader’s free lunch, and positions became so lopsided against the buck, a reversal was inevitable.

We seem to be solidly in one of those periodic corrections, which began a few years ago and could continue for months, or even years more.

The euro has its own particular problems, with the cost of a generous social safety net sending EC budget deficits careening. Add to that the gargantuan cost of a burgeoning refugee crisis.

Use this strength in the greenback to scale into core long positions in the currencies of countries that are major commodity exporters, boast rising trade and current account surpluses, and possess small consuming populations.

I’m talking about the Canadian dollar (FXC), the Australian dollar (FXA), and the New Zealand dollar (BNZ), all of which will eventually hit parity with the greenback once again.

Think of these as emerging markets where they speak English, best played through the local currencies.

For a sleeper, buy the Chinese Yuan ETF (CYB) for your backbook. A major revaluation by the Middle Kingdom is just a matter of time as long as the economy is growing at 6% a year or more.

I’m sure that if Alexander Hamilton were alive today, he would counsel our modern Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, to talk the dollar up, but to do everything he could to undermine the buck behind the scenes, thus over time depreciating our national debt down to nothing through a stealth devaluation.

Given Mnuchin’s performance so far regarding the dollar, I’d say he studied his history well.

Hamilton must be smiling from the grave.

 

 

A 242-Year Chart of the US Dollar priced in Hard Goods

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/10-Dollar-Bill.jpg 206 483 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-01-10 09:02:382024-01-10 10:03:49The Two-Century Dollar Short
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (DAL) January 9, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 13:41:362024-01-09 13:41:36Trade Alert - (DAL) January 9, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) January 9, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 12:44:032024-01-09 12:44:03Trade Alert - (NVDA) January 9, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Tech Alert - (AAPL) January 9, 2024 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 12:35:522024-01-09 12:35:52Tech Alert - (AAPL) January 9, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (AMZN) January 9, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 12:23:382024-01-09 12:23:38Trade Alert - (AMZN) January 9, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 9, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 9, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HATCHING THE GOLDEN EGG IN YOUR BIOTECH PORTFOLIO)

(CRSP), (VRTX), (BAYRY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 12:02:582024-01-09 10:46:03January 9, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Hatching The Golden Egg In Your Biotech Portfolio

Biotech Letter

In the words of Louis Pasteur, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” This axiom holds especially true in the world of biotechnology, where preparation meets opportunity at the cutting edge of innovation.

It's in this dynamic arena that CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) stands out, exemplifying Pasteur's vision. Remember how we talked about finding that golden egg in your investment portfolio? Well, pay attention, because this biotech might just be it.

Let's rewind to 2023. That year was like a warm-up lap for CRISPR, with its shares jumping a whopping 54%.

Now, as we leap into 2024, CRISPR isn't just riding a wave; it's creating a tsunami of momentum. Picture a baseball pro stepping up in a World Series game. That’s CRISPR, swinging its groundbreaking gene-editing tech, starring their brainchild, Casgevy.

But let's not get lost in the jargon. We're talking about a field where diseases get a one-way ticket out of your system, thanks to advanced gene therapies.

Sure, we haven't seen everyone jumping on this bandwagon yet, but with the gene therapy market set to balloon to a cool $80 billion by 2029, it's like sitting on a biotech gold mine. And who's leading the charge? You guessed it - CRISPR Therapeutics.

Diving into their treasure chest, we find a cushy $1.75 billion in cash and a debt profile so lean, it could give fitness models a run for their money. In the world of biotech, CRISPR isn't just fit; it's doing financial gymnastics.

Now, let's gab about Casgevy. This isn't your everyday biotech gizmo. It's like finding a diamond in a sea of rhinestones.

Developed with Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), it's the first FDA and UK-approved bigwig using CRISPR-CAS9 tech. Designed as a once-in-a-lifetime fix for sickle-cell disease (SCD), it's also eyeing a spot in treating transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

On top of that, the financial side of this story is as juicy as a ripe peach. Casgevy's price tag is a cool $2.2 million per treatment. Yes, you read that right. It's an exclusive club, with a reach estimated at 25,000-30,000 patients globally, mainly in the U.S.

The big question is: How many can actually afford this golden ticket? Considering the lifetime tab for SCD treatment hovers around $1.7 million, insurance companies might just get on board. The whole shebang – from prep to recovery – is a marathon, not a sprint.

But even with a modest guess of 10,000 patients getting treated, we're talking a revenue of $22 billion and a sweet $8.8 billion of that could waltz right into CRISPR's pockets.

But there's more to CRISPR than just Casgevy. They're playing 3D chess in a world where most are stuck playing checkers. Their lineup? It's like the Avengers of biotech – tackling everything from cancer with their “super soldier” CAR T-cells to diabetes and heart disease.

In the immuno-oncology corner, they're busy cooking up CTX112 and CTX131. These aren’t your average T-cells; they’re like tiny superheroes, souped up to target the baddies while giving your good cells a friendly nod. And the best part? CRISPR Therapeutics has the whole shebang under its wing.

Switching gears to Regenerative Medicine, imagine kicking those insulin shots to the curb. CRISPR's working on treatments that could reset your body’s natural functions. They've got VCTX210 and its beefier sibling VCTX211, both aiming to turn stem cells into insulin-producing champs.

Teaming up with ViaCyte, they've pocketed a nifty $100 million upfront, and there’s potentially more where that came from.

And then there's the In-Vivo stuff. This isn't your typical lab concoction; it's more like an internal bodyguard against heart diseases. With CTX310 and CTX320, CRISPR’s targeting pesky proteins that mess with your heart, proving they're not just a one-trick pony.

Oh, and let's not forget the buzz about their team-up with Bayer (BAYRY) on a hemophilia treatment. It's still cooking in the lab, but it's got the makings of something big.

For the investors rubbing their hands, wondering if CRISPR's stock is a wise pick – here’s my two cents. There’s still plenty of room for growth. It’s like uncovering an undervalued masterpiece at an art auction. The potential of CRISPR’s tech is just beginning to show its true colors.

So, what's my verdict? CRISPR Therapeutics isn't just a stock to buy; it's a golden ticket to the future of healthcare.

After all, in the end, it’s about betting on those who are not just playing the game but changing it entirely. And CRISPR? They're in a league of their own.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 12:00:342024-01-09 19:37:29Hatching The Golden Egg In Your Biotech Portfolio
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 9, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 9, 2024
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(JOIN ME ON CUNARDS QUEEN ELIZABETH FOR MY SATURDAY, JUNE 29 ALASKA SEMINAR AT SEA),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-09 09:06:032024-01-09 10:02:58January 9, 2024
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