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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Silicon Valley And The US Economy Heat Up

Tech Letter

In December, the US economy and the American tech sector ($COMPQ) showed who is boss in the world economy by blasting past employment expectations.

This comes at a time when every professional economist is calling for a gloomy outcome in the short term.

From the tech side of the equation, remote jobs are rebounding at a blistering pace.

Full-time workers plunged by 1.5 million in just one month to the lowest since February 2023.

Part-time workers made gains of 762,000 the highest on record.

Multiple jobholders hit a time-high 8.56 million.

What does this tell us?

Work from home can do more than one job and those are mainly tech jobs. A lot of the time they are IT and software engineering jobs as well.

The other group this could have affected is the group affected by Bidenflation which has crippled the budget of many low-income workers living in the US and this cohort needs two low-paid jobs.

The reality is that these multiple job holders are a mix of each group.

It’s now highly common for remote workers to work 3 or 4 jobs at once because these workers don’t need to be physically present in any office.

They can simply clock in and clock out when they choose to and this has been a boon for tech companies who have taken advantage of this trend and fired many full-time workers who became too pricey.

For the past year, Silicon Valley has taken a machete and chopped off the fat from its business model.

Their leanness was a massive reason for the overperformance of tech stocks last year and even though that same boost won’t happen to the same extent in 2024, it has given the blueprint to management on how to run a tech company.

The largest economy in the world saw the addition of 216,000 new jobs in December 2023, surpassing projections of a decline from the previous month, as per data from the Labour Department.

The joblessness rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, a figure that is notably low historically and counters predictions of a slight increase.

These impressive job market statistics arise amidst the context of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised and maintained high rates for the benchmark lending rate to moderate demand and control inflation.

In terms of wages, December witnessed a consistent rise, with a 0.4 percent increase from November 2023, according to the Labor Department. Year-over-year, average hourly earnings went up by 4.1 percent.

Tech jobs are evolving into a different type of existence with agility becoming more important and that is highly positive for tech companies.

Silicon Valley was at the forefront of the firing spree last year, but job numbers were more than compensated by the additions in government, health care, and services.

The strength of the US economy means that it’s painfully obvious that traders are still too early betting that the Fed will drop rates by 1.5% by the end of 2024.

My belief is that we will end up with a drop of .5%-.75% of Fed Funds rate cuts which means we have a little ways to go to reverse from this overshoot.

This idea that the economy is stronger than people think is verified by rising wages and lower unemployment.

I do believe that high inflation and high rates are here to stay and the 0% rate of yore was just a weird anomaly that defied historic data.

Delaying the “recession” yet another year means once we absorb this pullback, tech stocks will be off to the races again.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-05 14:02:402024-01-05 16:06:17Silicon Valley And The US Economy Heat Up
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 5, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(TECHNOLOGY SECTOR SET FOR MORE GROWTH IN 2024)

January 5, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

Happy New Year!

We are all on the lookout for where to put our money in 2024.  Will it be technology or another sector or perhaps a variety of sectors that provide good value?

I believe technology will be a growth area in 2024 and beyond. Artificial intelligence will be the catalyst that propels stocks on an upward trajectory for many years to come.  There is a tailwind here too, as investors are betting on easing financial policy, including several cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. (Are they locked in as a definite? – not yet).  In late 2023 the market read the writing on the wall regarding future Fed policy found its legs and brought great profits to many who were disciplined and patient.

So, let’s look at the stocks to start scaling into this year.

Your toolbox should have some of the following:

Google (GOOGL)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Oracle (ORCL)

Amazon (AMZN)

Arista Networks (ANET)

Meta Platforms (META)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Dell (DELL)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Micron Technology (MU)

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Salesforce (CRM)

The technology sector may not mirror the performance of 2023, but many portfolio managers are optimistic about another rosy year for the sector as rates fall, sentiment improves, AI matures and investors hunt for growth.  AI may be where all the action is.

Stock giants are funneling money into new businesses and initiatives within the AI sector. Alphabet has rolled out Gemini and Microsoft has launched the Co-pilot tool, which adds AI capabilities to its Office 365 suite.  The data networking infrastructure provider, Arista Networks, - one of my recommendations last year - gained 94% in 2023.  Average into this stock.

It’s worth remembering that the 2024 election cycle could prove another major boon for mega caps Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon as candidates and companies increase advertising spending to capture voters.

Consensus targets for the big names imply more upside in 2024.  For example, Analysts believe Meta could rally 8% after almost tripling in 2023.  Additionally, analysts see Microsoft rallying 11% and Amazon 18% this year after huge moves in 2023.

Do you think Nvidia has run too hard?  Don’t ignore it.  There is still gas in the tank for this stock.  Wall Street targets imply another 35% upside for this stock.  The chipmaker is trading at about 25 times earnings over the next 12 months versus about 34 times at the end of December 2022.

Don’t ignore other opportunities out there.  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rallied 128% and 246%, respectively, in 2023.  Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE), like the aforementioned, are stocks to scale into this year. 

Security will never go out of fashion as there will always be cybercriminals launching cyberattacks on companies.  Optus in Australia was just one of the companies that fell victim to a cyber-attack in 2023.  MGM Resorts was another that got hit.    These crimes will become more sophisticated as AI develops.  While it’s a major pain in the neck for companies and consumers, it could prove a major positive for cloud and cybersecurity companies offering tools to repel these attacks. 

This puts Palo Alto Networks (PANW) in prime position.  Crowdstrike (CRWD) is also another stock that should be in your kit in this area.

AI has become a growth engine for Salesforce (CRM).  We are at the beginning of decades of innovation in software.  The sector is well positioned in 2024.  Improving IT budgets and a general recovery in spending should assist the software space as companies will need to set aside funds to spend on infrastructure to prepare data for harvesting in the AI world.

 

 

 

Our Road Trip

My son, Alex, and I have been on a road trip for the last week. We are driving up the Queensland coast to Mackay. We drove from Brisbane up to Bororen (about a four-hour drive), which is just west of Maryborough, and stayed the night there in a beautiful homestead. On the way, we drove through some very heavy downpours, but after the rain cleared, we enjoyed some very picturesque scenery. 

 

 

 

 

A stunning rainbow to signal the end of the rainstorm.

 

 

The rain cleared but the clouds still hugged the mountain tops.

 

 

A lone cockatoo atop a dead tree after the downpour. 

 

 

On the coast at the township of 1770.

 

 

The lookout in 1770.

 

 

Behind our homestead in Bororen – one hour west of 1770.

 

 

Koumala Hotel – 50 minutes south of Mackay in central Queensland.

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-05 12:00:282024-01-05 11:03:04January 5, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 5, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 5, 2024
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(USING THE “WASH SALE RULE” TO MINIMIZE TAXES ON YOUR OPTIONS TRADING PROFITS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-05 09:06:322024-01-05 12:31:52January 5, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Jacquie Munro January 10, 2024 Melbourne, Australia Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter


Come join me for lunch for Jacquie Munro’s Global Strategy Update, which she will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia at 12:00 PM on Wednesday, January 10, 2024. A three-course lunch is included.

She’ll be giving you her up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, she’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $198.

She’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive restaurant in central Melbourne, the details of which will be emailed to you.

Jacquie looks forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting her research.

To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

 

Jacqueline Munro

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/melbourne.jpg 626 918 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-01-05 09:04:282024-07-03 13:26:09SOLD OUT - Jacquie Munro January 10, 2024 Melbourne, Australia Strategy Luncheon
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Using the “Wash Sale Rule” to Minimize Taxes on Your Option Trading Profits

Diary, Newsletter

With a lot of new subscribers recently coming on board, it’s time to review the “Wash Sale Rule” one more time.

Options deserve special tax treatment, at least for now, and it’s important that you understand these benefits to take maximum advantage of the specific trading strategies that I propose.

Due to the immense volume of profitable trades in the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service, I am getting a lot of questions about the dreaded “Wash Sale Rule”.

The wash what?

The problem arises because the Internal Revenue Service believes that taxpayers are on a never-ending quest to avoid paying taxes.

In that belief, the despised government agency is largely right.

So what is the wash sale rule?

Let’s say you purchase 100 shares of XYZ Corp. for $25 per share on February 10. Nine days later, on February 19, XYZ drops to $22 per share and you sell your 100 shares.

You now have a capital loss of $3 per share, or $300, which may be tax-deductible.

However, if, on February 26, you then bought the same security for $22.50 per share, this would be considered a “Wash Sale” because you sold and repurchased shares of the same stock within only a few days.

Without the wash sale rule, the result would be that you could possibly have a tax deduction for your loss, but you would still own the shares, which is why it's called an “artificial loss” by the IRS, and therefore not deductible as a capital loss.

Don’t try hiding your maneuvers by executing one leg of the trade in your personal account, and the second in your wife’s account or your IRA. Both actions still trigger the Wash Sale Rule.

The rule applies whether you are trading stocks, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, or options on any of the above. In fact, wash sales are quite likely if you have arranged for automatic reinvestment of your dividends back into your mutual funds.

The only requirement is that the two securities be substantially similar in nature, the precise definition of which the IRS has left intentionally and maddeningly vague.

The Wash Sale Rule becomes an issue with the vertical bull call and bear put option spreads the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has been recommending.

Usually, you are long one option and short another in the same company and both legs generate a profit on closing. No problem there. You just pay more in taxes and hope the government doesn’t blow it on some useless program.

But during periods of extreme volatility, such as August and September 2023, it is possible to have a large gain on one leg, and a substantial loss on the other, but to have a profit overall on the combined paired spread.

Enter the Wash Sale Rule.

Since you had gains and losses in nearly identical securities within 30 days, the IRS will hit you with a short-term gain on the profit, but not let you deduct the loss.

Yes, I know this sounds like a rip-off, or a “heads I win, tails you lose” scam perpetrated by a devious IRS.

But it is not the end of the world. NO, I have not designed the most tax-inefficient securities trading strategy imaginable.

While you can’t deduct the loss on the losing leg, you CAN use it to increase the cost basis on your winning leg, thus reducing your overall tax bill.

Also, the holding period of the wash sale securities is added to the holding period of the replacement securities.

Do this enough times, and you will eventually make it to the safety and the lower 20% tax rate for long-term capital gains.

In this manner, the Wash Sale Rule then becomes a convenient tax avoidance scheme, although it was certainly never intended as such.

So the losses ARE deductible at the end of the day. You just have to get your accountant to undergo some mental gymnastics and file the appropriate IRS Form 8949 to claim them indirectly.

He’ll charge you for the extra time. But at the end of the day, it is worth it.

As I am an “active trader” to say the least, in my case, these filings go on for dozens of pages. As a result, my annual tax return looks like the old New York City telephone book.

Actually, I’m told it’s the same length as the corporate return filed by IBM.

Now here are some warnings and provisos for the average taxpayer.

If you use your friendly neighborhood tax preparer, one of the discount firms like H&R Block or Jackson Hewitt, or your fraternity brother from college using TurboTax to file your annual return, they may not know how to handle Wash Sales correctly.

You could well get stuck with the full loss because of their ignorance.

So if you are an active trader yourself, or are dealing in large dollar amounts, I would recommend hiring an accountant who specializes in securities trading.

They will have all of the detailed knowledge readily at hand of the many obscure, arcane tax laws regarding securities trading, know of the recent relevant opinion letters issued by the IRS, and will be well aware of court cases regarding these issues.

Experts such as these can be found in abundance in New York and Chicago. They are easy to find on the Internet.

Go to it.

Having spent 55 years dealing with tax matters, and devoting 10 years to writing a weekly international tax column for the London Financial Times, I can tell you this is not a new problem.

Ignorance of tax problems outside of the plain vanilla questions is rife, even among accountants (yes, Sunday church deductions are tax deductible. Just make them by check so you leave an auditable paper trail).

There is no living person who knows what’s in the entire 100,000 pages of the International Revenue Code, not even the IRS itself.

That’s a scary thought.

During the 1980s, the IRS sent an agent to England every year just to audit me because I was one of the ten highest-earning Americans in the country.

For the last one, they sent a frumpy, bespectacled female agent who had just spent a month auditing roustabouts on drilling platforms offshore from Louisiana, a notorious source of tax avoidance.

She didn’t have a clue about how to interpret my multicurrency convertible home mortgage on my London mansion, so we spent the afternoon at the American embassy planning her entire European vacation to follow.

I think I heard the CIA was torturing someone in the next room.

Similarly, when I went into the oil and gas business in the 1990s, no California accountant could explain the tax benefits there.

I had to go to Houston to learn that, and what I discovered was a real eye-opener.

Why isn’t everyone in the oil and gas business?

To learn about my last run-in with the IRS, read “The Letter From the IRS You Should Dread” by clicking here.


For more background on the IRS, please click here for “Happy Birthday IRS”.

To get the official explanation of the Wash Sale Rule in the IRS’s own turgid, soporific bureaucratese, please click here for IRS Publication 550, “Investment Income and Expenses (Including Capital Gains and Losses)” by clicking here.

 

Watch Out for the “Wash Sale Rule”

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-05 09:02:002024-01-05 10:51:15Using the “Wash Sale Rule” to Minimize Taxes on Your Option Trading Profits
MHFTR

January 5, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"There is tremendous amounts of money sitting on the sidelines. There is enormous M&A activity. The greatest thinkers in the corporate world are saying that it is cheaper to buy than to build. This says to me that the stock market still has value in it. We're a long way from expensive," said Milton Ezrati, senior economist and market strategist for money management giant, Lord Abbett.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Sugar.jpg 259 185 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2024-01-05 09:00:082024-01-05 10:51:09January 5, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 4, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 4, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A TURNAROUND TALE WORTH WATCHING)

(MRNA), (PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-04 12:02:022024-01-04 10:32:35January 4, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Turnaround Tale Worth Watching

Biotech Letter

Let's take a step back and get a bird's-eye view of what's shaking up in the biotech world.

Remember Moderna (MRNA)? The big shot of the Covid-19 vaccine saga? It’s suddenly back in the spotlight.

After a year that saw its shares nosedive by 45% — landing it in the not-so-coveted spot of one of 2023's worst S&P 500 performers — things are looking up. And, boy, are they looking up!

Moderna's woes weren't just about falling vaccine sales. Oh no, it was more than that. They had to scale back their manufacturing footprint, trimming costs left and right. The company doesn't see itself breaking even until 2026, but who's rushing?

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Moderna's not just sitting around licking its wounds. They've been busy bees, pouring money into their mRNA-based product pipeline. And guess what? It's starting to look like money well spent.

December brought some news that made investors sit up straight. In partnership with Merck (MRK), Moderna's cooking up a cancer treatment that's looking pretty darn promising. And it's not just any partnership.

We're talking about combining forces with Merck's Keytruda, the oncology heavyweight, raking in a cool $20.9 billion in 2022.

Moderna's mRNA-4157, however, is the new kid on the block. It's a custom-tailored cancer vaccine, shaping up to be a real game-changer. The idea? Target each patient's cancer uniquely, making it a one-two punch with treatments like Keytruda.

The latest data? It's the stuff of dreams. High-risk melanoma patients showed a 49% drop in cancer recurrence or death risk and a 62% plunge in distant metastasis or death risk. All this without ramping up severe side effects. The phase 3 trial is already on the drawing board and the scope? It's widening.

And, let's not forget the big picture. In 2020, around 325,000 cases of malignant melanoma were diagnosed.

If Moderna and Merck hit the bullseye with their candidate, they're looking at a vast market to tap into. And if this duo outperforms Keytruda alone for certain conditions, we're talking serious revenue potential.

Needless to say, these developments hint at a future where Moderna's not just about Covid-19 jabs. By 2026, this biotech company is projected to have a lineup of at least five products.

But why this sudden investor love? Part of it is the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and a new variant, JN.1, causing a stir. Adding to these are clearer visibility on vaccine sales and a more structured expense outlook.

On the back of these developments, Moderna's shares leaped 13% to $112.57. That's their best day since December 13, 2022, when they soared 20%. Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE), their vaccine rival, saw a modest 3.8% bump in roughly the same period.

The broader Wall Street narrative? It's echoing optimism for Moderna. The average price target sits at $126.72, with shares currently hovering around $100. It's a glimpse of potential gains for the vaccine maker.

Clearly, Moderna is no longer just a one-trick pony. More importantly, their shares are currently a bargain, sporting a P/E ratio of just 7 against the market average of 26. This might be riskier than your usual index fund investment, but the growth potential? It's likely being underestimated.

Short-term, Moderna might see more dips as its Covid-19 vaccine windfall wanes. But long-term, their collaboration with Merck, along with other pipeline projects, spells growth.

Come 2025, Moderna's management is betting on a growth rebound, eyeing break-even by 2026. By 2028, they're aiming to add 15 more medicines to their arsenal. And with $7.6 billion in cash and equivalents, they're set to weather the storm without diluting shareholder value.

So, should you buy into Moderna now? It's not a half-bad idea.

If you're the patient type, ready to ride out some short-term turbulence for potential long-term gains, then Moderna's current narrative might just be your kind of investment story.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-04 12:00:122024-01-04 10:32:26A Turnaround Tale Worth Watching
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 4, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 4, 2024
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(DINNER WITH DAVID POGUE),
(TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-04 09:04:512024-01-04 10:04:40January 4, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 3, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 3, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FORMING THE NEXT BUYING OPPORTUNITY)
(APPL), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-01-03 14:04:062024-01-03 16:00:51January 3, 2024
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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