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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Taking a Look at Home Depot

Diary, Newsletter

I have been out shopping the neighborhood for good non-tech plays and I found another one.

You are going to think that I am completely MAD by thinking about this trade right now. But I’ve gotten used to that by now.

If you had to pick one sector of the 100 or so that Standard & Poor’s tracks, that is universally hated by all traders and investors, it would have to be the retailers.

Widely viewed as headed for the dustbin of history, many retailers are not going to make it to Christmas, let alone stay in business through 2025.

Do any value screen of all listed stocks, and about half of all the bargain stocks are found in the retail industry.

These are the buggy whip manufacturers of 1901 before they got run over by the auto industry.

Of course, you can blame Amazon, which is rapidly taking over all sales of everything in the US. They have about a 50% market share of all online sales. No wonder the government is going after them with an antitrust case.

This is thanks to their cutting-edge technology and massive economies of scale.

Amazon is probably the number one job destroyer in the US today, with some 5 million retail jobs on the chopping block over the next five years.

However, there is one safe haven that so far seems immune from Amazon’s appetite and that would be Home Depot (HD).

I am using the recent 18% sell-off in the shares to look at (HD), which is occurring, not because of anything Home Depot did, but because of higher interest rates for longer.

Longer term, I think Home Depot will continue to appreciate, as the housing and remodel boom will take off like a rocket once interest rates DO fall. That could be in four months….or sooner.

Then we will have a home remodeling boom that has years to run, and possibly decades. The more expensive homes get, the more inclined owners are to fix up their existing digs. They go to Home Depot to do that.

If you want to make a safer play, buy the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) on this dip, which gives you broader exposure to the real estate recovery and has a much more solid bottom.

Baskets of shares always have lower volatility than single stocks, but lower returns as well.

We just have to give the market a chance to have a few more heart attacks before the current correction ends.

Home Depot is in a tiny retail niche that has so far avoided the Amazon onslaught. There are many reasons for this.

When you need a particular screw, lighting fixture, or unique plumbing part, calling Amazon will get you absolutely nowhere.

You need (HD)’s sympathetic, knowledgeable customer service people, usually retired contractors themselves, to point you in the right direction and assist with a few helpful suggestions.

They’ve done this for me a million times.

Home remodeling and repair is also an industry where a premium is paid for making parts available NOW! A burst pipe won’t wait for an Amazon priority delivery, nor will a leaky roof or broken sprinkler head.

A lot of independent contractors are now not even able to plan supplies weeks or months in advance. They buy what they see.

The home repair and remodel boom will continue, as it is the working man’s solution to high home prices, especially on the coasts, as the profusion of home repair YouTube videos testify. You can fix ANYTHING on YouTube.

While Home Depot recently reported annual revenues of $34.79 billion, up 2.92%. Operating income was reported at $4.8 billion, up 12.82%. Net income came in at an impressive $2.8 billion, up 16.69% YOY. Yet, you get a low 22.7 times price-earnings multiple typical of retailers.

They should do much better in the spring Q2 reporting season. We will know for sure when the company reports on Q2.

This gives us a great discount entry point for a super long-term company, which doesn’t care what the US dollar is doing, which will soon be falling.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/home-depot-e1503519099789.jpg 259 400 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-08 09:02:442024-05-08 15:59:09Taking a Look at Home Depot
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 8, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Most of the ETF’s today are your dad’s Oldsmobile,” said Lee Kranefuss of Source Advisors, about the outdated irrelevance for most equity indexes.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Oldsmobile.jpg 251 335 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-05-08 09:00:422024-05-08 15:58:57May 8, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 7, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 7, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(PACKING A HEAVIER PUNCH)

(AMGN), (NVO), (LLY), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 14:03:292024-05-07 14:03:29May 7, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Packing A Heavier Punch

Biotech Letter

Amgen (AMGN) is having a moment. Early results for their injectable drug MariTide sound pretty darn promising. 

But it’s not all roses and sunshine at Amgen. The company also dropped the curtain on AMG786, an experimental oral weight-loss pill that just wasn't cutting it.

It’s tough in the pharmaceutical arena, especially since this whole weight-loss drug market is a gold rush right now. Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) are cleaning up, and even Pfizer (PFE), despite their hiccup, isn't going to roll over that quickly.

Now, back to MariTide. Calling it a "multi-blockbuster" sounds flashy, but investors want to see if it can crack the hold those big two already have. Amgen's got a decent track record though, so I wouldn't write them off just yet.

The early scoop on MariTide is pretty tantalizing. The last round of Phase 2 trials showed that three monthly shots could significantly trim the waistline, with the heftier doses keeping the pounds off for up to four months post-treatment.

Actually, MariTide’s core strength is that it’s just once-a-month jab — an easier regimen compared to the weekly routine required by current front-runners like semaglutide and tirzepatide.

Speaking of the competition, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide have been seeing users pack the pounds back on pretty quickly after stopping treatment.

That’s not ideal, and it’s exactly the kind of opening Amgen is looking to capitalize on with MariTide.

Now, let’s broaden our scope. It's a bit of a misnomer to just call it an “obesity pipeline” because, let me tell you, this technology is dipping its toes into much more than just shedding pounds.

Those GLP-1 agonists like semaglutide and the double-duty “double G” agonists like tirzepatide? They’re not just one-trick ponies.

Aside from battling the bulge, they’re making waves in treating diabetes, slicing through cardiovascular risks, and even exploring new frontiers like osteoarthritis and sleep apnea.

Heck, they’re even peeking into Alzheimer’s prevention — Novo Nordisk is already revving up for a phase 3 trial.

Despite these lucrative offshoots though, obesity remains the arena’s juggernaut.

Novo Nordisk’s latest data, as bleak as it might seem for global health, paints a picture of a market vast enough to entice anyone. Think about it—out of 813 million people wrestling with obesity, only one million are currently on these incretin drugs.

And with projections pointing to numbers ballooning to 1.2 billion by 2030, well, the potential market is jaw-dropping.

If Amgen’s MariTide hits the mark, we could be talking about a whopping $20 billion in annual sales from just this one contender in about 7-8 years, spanning obesity and a few neighboring conditions.

That’s even if they face a dogfight over pricing and if the average price per patient hangs below what the big guns like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently pulling.

Now, think about this — current estimates peg Amgen’s growth from $33 billion this year to a modest $35.1 billion by 2033. My take? That’s wildly conservative.

If you ask me, Amgen's obesity pipeline alone, even with just modest success, could blast those numbers out of the water.

But let's not kid ourselves – MariTide alone won't make Amgen king of the obesity market. To truly capitalize on the segment’s potential, Amgen might need to consider teaming up with those emerging stars working on preserving lean body mass, or even big players like Regeneron (REGN).

They could take a couple of routes here. One slick move could be scooping up some smaller biotech firms or cozying up to bigger fish through partnerships or in-licensing deals to beef up their treatment options.

Alternatively, Amgen could play it cool and simply pair MariTide with their own upcoming products once they hit the market. Sure, this might keep things simple, but it kind of feels like leaving money on the table, isn’t it?

Admittedly, it’s still early days when it comes to these weight loss treatments. One thing's for sure: the next few years will be a wild ride for obesity drugs. After all, it’s clear that the GLP-1 craze is doing for pharma what AI hype is doing for tech stocks. It’s like a rising tide lifting all boats.

Looking ahead, the big winners in the next 18 months are looking to be Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. These guys are leading the pack, while others might just not make it to the finish line, ending up as flops in the stock market drama.

Yet, through all this, Amgen stands out as a dark horse.

Even if the obesity pipeline doesn't turn out to be their golden ticket, Amgen's strategic positioning could still deliver solid long-term value.

But, and here’s the kicker, if MariTide and its potential combo treatments hit their stride as hoped, Amgen could sprint ahead in this fast-paced market race — not just in obesity but in those juicy, adjacent niches too. This could spark some serious value creation that current forecasts haven't even begun to factor in.

So, while the market’s getting its gears grinding, Amgen might just surprise us all. I say keep this stock on your watchlist.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 14:00:532024-05-07 14:03:15Packing A Heavier Punch
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (TLT) May 7, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 13:36:392024-05-07 13:36:39Trade Alert - (TLT) May 7, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) May 7, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 11:02:492024-05-07 11:02:49Trade Alert - (NVDA) May 7, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (AAPL) May 7, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 10:56:432024-05-07 11:39:17Trade Alert - (AAPL) May 7, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (META) May 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 10:43:342024-05-07 10:43:34Trade Alert - (META) May 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 7, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 7, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(GLD), (SLV), (NVDA), (AAPL), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 09:04:592024-05-07 13:57:27May 7, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

Diary, Newsletter

Occasionally, I get a call from Concierge members asking what to do when their short positions options were assigned or called away. The answer was very simple: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.

We have the good fortune to have FOUR spreads that are deep in the money going into the May 17 option expiration in 8 days. They include:

 

Risk On

 

(GLD) 5/$200-$205 call spread         10.00%

(SLV) 5/$21-$23 call spread                10.00%

 

Risk Off

(NVDA) 5/$980-$990 put spread   -10.00%

(MSFT) 5/$430-$440 put spread    -10.00%

 

Total Net Position                                  0.00%

 

Total Aggregate Position                    40.00%

 

In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.

Most of you have short-option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option debit spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.

The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.

You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.

Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the in-the-money SPDR Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) May $200-$205 vertical BULL CALL debit spread, which you bought at $4.55 or best.

For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 trading days before the May 17 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.55 on April 30 is now $5.00!

All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (GLD) May 200 calls to close out your short position in the (GLD) May $205 calls.

This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, and the same number of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no net exposure at all.

Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.

To say it another way, you bought the (GLD) at $200 and sold it at $205, paid $4.55 for the right to do so for 13 days, so your profit is $0.45 cents, or ($0.45 X 100 shares X 25 contracts) = $1,125. Not bad for a 13-day defined limited-risk play.

Sounds like a good trade to me.

Callaways most often happen in the run-up to a dividend payout. If you can collect a full monthly or quarterly dividend the day before the stock registration dates by calling away someone’s short option position, why not? If fact, a whole industry of this kind of strategies has arisen in recent years in response to the enormous growth of the options market.

(GLD) and most tech stocks don’t pay dividends so callaways are rare.

Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.

A call owner may need to buy a long (GLD) position after the close, and exercising his long May 205 call is the only way to execute it.

Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.

There are thousands of algorithms out there that may arrive at some twisted logic that the calls need to be exercised.

Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.

And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to make mistakes.

And here’s another possible outcome in this process.

Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then post an additional margin to cover the risk.

Or they will tell you to sell your remaining long option position at whatever price you can get, wiping out most, if not all of your great profit. This generates the maximum commission for your broker.

Either that, or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a oodles of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.

There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they did train 50 years ago.

Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.

Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.

This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.

Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.

If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.

Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.

If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.

 

 

Calling All Options!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Call-Options.png 345 522 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-07 09:02:002024-05-07 13:56:59A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away
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