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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 19, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 19, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRK/B)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-19 09:04:442024-07-19 10:18:38July 19, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Barbell Play with Berkshire Hathaway

Diary, Newsletter

It’s time to give me another victory lap. Berkshire Hathaway shares are now up 16.55% to a new all-time high. Every call spread and LEAPS I issued on (BRK/B) is now either at max profit or well in the money.

I have been pounding the table all year about the merits of a barbell strategy, with equal weightings in technology and domestic recovery stocks. By owning both, you’ll always have something doing well as new cash flows bounce back and forth between the two sectors like a ping-pong ball.

After all, nobody gets sector rotation right, unless they have been practicing for 50 years, like me.

Full disclosure: I have to admit that after 50 years of following him, I love Warren Buffet. He was one of the first subscribers to my newsletter when it started up in 2008. Some of his best ideas have come from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, like buying Bank of America for $5 in 2008. 

Oh, and he hates Wall Street for constantly fleecing people. Ditto here. 

In reading Warren Buffet’s annual letter (click here for the link), it occurred to me that his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) shares were in effect a one-stop barbell investment.

For a start, Warren owns a serious slug of Apple (AAPL), some $120 billion worth, or 2.5% of the total fund. That gives (BRKB) some technology weighting. It cost him only $20 billion. The dividends he received entirely paid for the initial cost. So he owns 4% of Apple for free.

I remember the battle over the initial “BUY” in 2015. Warren fought it, insisting he didn’t understand the smartphone business. And he even knew Steve Jobs personally. In the end, he bought Apple for its global brand value alone. His all-in cost as of today, including dividends and splits? Less than zero.

That is Warren Buffet to a tee.

The next five largest publicly listed holdings are Bank of America (BAC), Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP), and Verizon Communications (VZ). These are your classic domestic recovery sectors. And with a heavy weighting in other banks (BK) (USB), Buffet is effectively short the bond market (TLT), another position I hugely favor.

Also included in the package is a liberal salting of pharmaceuticals, Merck (MRK), and AbbVie (ABBV). He has a small energy weighting with Chevron (CVX) and Occidental (OXY). He even has a position in old heavy metal America with General Motors (GM).

Berkshire is also one of the world’s largest property & casualty insurance owners. Its current “float” is $138 billion. You all know his flagship holding, GEICO. And the gecko mascot isn’t going anywhere as long as Warren lives. It was Warren’s idea.

It all seems to work for Warren. In the first quarter of 2023, he earned a staggering $35.5 billion. All told, Berkshire employ 360,000, second to only Amazon (AMZN), and is the largest taxpayer in the United States, accounting for 3% of government revenues. Berkshire is also the largest owner of capital goods & equipment in the US worth $156 billion, topping (AT&T).

Many of Warren’s early 1956 $1,000 investors are millionaires many times over….and over 100 years old, prompting him to muse if ownership of his shares extended life.

Warren’s annual letter, which he spends practically the entire year working on, is always one of the best reads in the financial markets. There isn’t a better 50,000-foot view out there. He also admits to his mistakes, such as his disastrous purchase of Precision Castparts (PCC) in 2016 for $37 billion, which later suffered from the crash in the aerospace industry. In 2020, Buffet wrote off $11 billion of that acquisition.

He can do worse. In 1993, he bought the Dexter Shoe Company for $433 million worth of Berkshire stock. The company went under, but the Berkshire stock today is worth $8.7 billion.

Buffet’s letters always refer back to some of his “greatest hits,” today legends in the business history of the United States: GEICO, Furniture Mart, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and See’s Candies, one of the largest employers of women in the US using 150-year-old recipes. Its peanut brittle is to die for.

In 2009, Buffet snatched away from me BNSF for a song, now the most profitable railroad in the country, an amalgamation of 360 railroads over 170 years. I say “snatched away” because it was my favorite railroad trading vehicle for decades until he bought the entire company. I hear its trains run by my home every night as a grim reminder.

Another benefit to owning (BRKB) is that Buffet is far and away the largest buyer of his own shares, soaking up $25 billion worth in Q1. And he is buying the shares of other companies that are also aggressively buying their own shares, like Apple ($200 billion last year). It all sounds like the perfect money-creation machine to me.

It gets better. Berkshires “B” shares trade options, meaning you can buy LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities), which by now, you all know and love.

This is how poor people become rich. In fact, my target for (BRKB) was $400 for the end of 2023 and $500 for 2025, right when the two-year LEAPS expires. 

One question I often get about Berkshire is what happens when Warren Buffet goes to his greater reward, which is not an impossible concept given that he is 92 years old. 

I imagine the shares will have a bad day or two, and then recover. Buffet has been hiring his replacements for a decade or more, and he handed off day-to-day operations years ago (I didn’t want to move to Omaha, no mountains). 

When that happens, it will be the best buying opportunity of the year. And another chance to load up on those LEAPS.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/warren.jpg 332 498 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-07-19 09:02:362024-07-19 10:18:16The Barbell Play with Berkshire Hathaway
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 19, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Either you figured it out in a day or two or you were dead,” said the late Battle of Britain Spitfire pilot, John Schooling, and my aerobatics instructor in England 40 years ago.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/john-thomas-spitfire.jpg 226 207 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-07-19 09:00:582024-07-19 10:18:03July 19, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (JPM) July 18, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 14:34:202024-07-18 14:40:43Trade Alert - (JPM) July 18, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 18, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 18, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(FROM GOLDEN EGG TO DUD, AND BACK AGAIN?)

(PFE), (LLY), (NVO), (VKTX), (GILD), (GPCR), (BNTX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 12:02:472024-07-18 12:47:08July 18, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

From Golden Egg To Dud, And Back Again?

Biotech Letter

Remember when Pfizer (PFE) was strutting around Wall Street like a rooster in a henhouse, clucking about their $10 billion-a-year weight-loss wonder drug?

Well, that golden egg turned out to be a dud, with safety issues and side effects sending their experimental pills to the scrap heap faster than you can say "clinical trial failure."

Just when we thought Pfizer had thrown in the towel, they're back in the ring, swinging with a new once-daily version of danuglipron and pushing it towards bigger studies.

But let me tell you, the market's about as excited as I am for a vegan BBQ. Pfizer's shares nudged up a measly 0.4% upon announcement, after a brief 2.9% spike that fizzled faster than a diet soda.

Now, let's talk about the 800-pound gorillas in the room: Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy.

These weekly jabs are the current darlings of the weight-loss world, but everyone and their grandmother are scrambling to get an oral GLP-1 to market. It's like watching a gold rush, except instead of pickaxes, they're wielding pipettes.

Lilly's got orfoglipron in Phase 3, with data coming faster than a day trader's heartbeat. Novo's already peddling Rybelsus, though it's about as effective as a chocolate teapot compared to the injectables.

And don't forget the up-and-comers: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are all elbowing for a spot at the table.

Now, I know Pfizer's trying to convince us that their once-daily danuglipron is the bee's knees, with "encouraging pharmacokinetic data." But they're as tight-lipped about side effects as a politician at a press conference.

The research world’s not completely buying it, and frankly, neither am I. We might be waiting until the cows come home - or at least until 2026 - before we see if this pill's worth its weight in gold.

Meanwhile, Pfizer's stock has been sagging like a bulldog's jowls, down 1.5% this year and a gut-wrenching 21% over the past 12 months.

They're also staring down the barrel of a $17 billion revenue nosedive by 2030 as their patents fly the coop faster than pigeons at feeding time.

So, what has Pfizer been doing to deal with these? In recent months, the company has been on an acquisition bender that'd make a Vegas high-roller blush.

They snagged cancer specialist Seagen for a cool $43 billion, aiming to have eight blockbuster cancer drugs by 2030.

They're also playing footsie with BioNTech (BNTX) again, cooking up mRNA goodies like a COVID/flu combo vaccine. And let's not forget their partnership with Flagship Pioneering in the weight loss arena.

Over the past five years, Pfizer hasn’t been shy about spending money, securing over 20 new medicine approvals.

But Wall Street's been about as impressed as a cat with a new toy - they sniff at it and walk away. The stock took a 40% nosedive in 2023, partly thanks to their obesity program face-planting.

Still, Pfizer is not giving up so easily. In fact, they’ve worked to give their lineup a facelift. New approvals are rolling in faster than a greased pig at a county fair, and their pipeline's deeper than a philosopher on a bender.

Now, here's the million-dollar question: Is Pfizer a diamond in the rough or fool's gold? The market overreacted to their COVID-19 vaccine success, and now they might be overcorrecting in the other direction.

For those of you with nerves of steel and the patience of a Zen master, Pfizer could be a steal at these prices. If you don’t have the stomach for it, then I suggest you look elsewhere.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 12:00:282024-07-18 12:46:43From Golden Egg To Dud, And Back Again?
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (IBKR) July 18, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 09:45:112024-07-18 09:49:32Trade Alert - (IBKR) July 18, 2024 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (CCI) July 18, 2024 - BUY LEAPS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-07-18 09:22:572024-07-18 09:22:57Trade Alert - (CCI) July 18, 2024 - BUY LEAPS
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 18, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 18, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AUGUST 15, 2024 LONDON, ENGLAND STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY GOLD IS GOING TO A NEW HIGH),
(GLD), (GOLD), (NEM), (GDX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-18 09:06:112024-07-18 12:21:51July 18, 2024
Douglas Davenport

THE “SILVER” LINING

Mad Hedge AI

(AMD), (NVDA), (INTC), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOG), (GOOGL)

Why did Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) acquire Silo AI? Because they needed a place to store all their extra cash! Just kidding. 

You might be thinking, "Why would AMD spend €613.7 million ($665 million) on a company named after a grain storage container?" 

But trust me, this acquisition is no joke. It's a strategic move that could help AMD give Nvidia (NVDA) a run for its money in the AI chip market.

You see, AMD has been trailing behind Nvidia in the AI chip market, and they needed a secret weapon to level the playing field. That's where Silo AI comes in. 

This little-known Finnish startup has been quietly making waves in the AI world, and AMD saw their potential to help them catch up to and even surpass Nvidia.

For those of you who've been living under a rock (or perhaps just enjoying a balanced portfolio), AMD just dropped €613.7 million - that's about $665 million for us Yanks - to snag Silo AI. 

Let me break it down. AMD's already got a thoroughbred in its stable with the Instinct MI300X GPU. This beauty helped drive $2.3 billion in Q1 revenues for the data center segment. Not too bad, right? 

In the world of AI, though, that's like bringing a knife to a gunfight when Nvidia's packing a bazooka. This is why the Silo AI acquisition is so critical to AMD.

Silo AI has been training large language models on AMD hardware like it's going out of style. They've even got some fancy EU language models with names like "Poro" and "Viking" that sound more like craft beers than AI. 

But here's the real kicker - Silo's client list includes none other than Nvidia itself. Talk about sleeping with the enemy.

Now, let's not kid ourselves. AMD, with its $300 billion market cap, is still playing catch-up to Nvidia's jaw-dropping $3.3 trillion valuation. But with Silo AI in its corner, AMD's got a real chance at cementing its position as the undisputed silver medalist in the AI race. 

And let's not forget about Intel (INTC) - their Gaudi 3 might be in the running, but it's looking more like a moped competing against AMD and Nvidia's superbikes.

What's even more interesting is that AMD's not just gunning for Nvidia's data center lunch money. They're going straight for the end-users, the customers who actually generate AI revenues for cloud giants like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL). 

It's like AMD's saying, "Why fight over the hardware when we can own the whole AI enchilada?"

But, will this whole Silo AI deal really help AMD overtake Nvidia? Short answer: Nope. Long answer: Not in this lifetime, pal. But that's not the point. 

AMD's playing 4D chess while everyone else is playing checkers. For the first time, we might see AMD report revenues that don't come from pushing silicon. Imagine that - a chip company making money from... *drum roll*... software.

Speaking of money, let's talk numbers. AMD's got enough cash to make this all-cash acquisition without breaking a sweat. Their last quarter's levered free cash flow could cover this deal with change left over for a fancy dinner. It's pocket change for the potential upside. 

However, it's important to note that AMD's revenues are more volatile than a day trader's blood pressure. We saw an 11% sequential drop from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. 

Why? Because Nvidia's supply constraints eased up, and demand flowed back to Team Green. Expect this seesaw to continue, my friends.

So, am I telling you to buy AMD? You bet your last Bitcoin I am. But listen closely - this isn't for the get-rich-quick crowd. 

We're talking years, maybe even a decade, for this play to fully unfold. Every time AMD fills Nvidia's supply gaps, expect the stock to pop. 

Every soft quarter? That's your chance to load up like it's Black Friday at Best Buy.

So, keep your eyes peeled for Nvidia's Q2 earnings call next month and AMD's Q2 results at the end of this month. Don't expect fireworks unless AMD shows strong sequential growth. 

Remember, in the world of AI chips, today's underdog could be tomorrow's top dog. AMD might not be the fastest car on the track yet, but with Silo AI under the hood, they've got a few new tricks up their sleeve. 

And in this market, sometimes being the clever underdog is just as profitable as being the reigning champ.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2024-07-17 16:09:152024-07-17 16:09:15THE “SILVER” LINING
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