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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 7, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(STAY COOL IN THE FACE OF A TURBULENT MARKET & START LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES)

August 7, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

 

The market has been throwing a little tantrum over the last few days, and we all know why.

Unwinding of the yen carry-trade

Economic market data

The Fed turning up to the party with no rate cuts.  Late again Mr Powell…

AI over-exuberance

Today, Tuesday, we saw some calmer waters, but the stinger is that more volatility may be yet to come.  We are waiting for a signal that the bottom is formed in this correction.

 

YEN CARRY TRADE

What an epic unwinding of the yen carry trade.  Are we done or is there more to come?

A few investment bank analysts are indicating more unwinding is yet to happen.

What is the Yen carry trade?

Investors borrow from low-interest economies like Japan to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.  The strategy hit turbulence when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week, prompting a surge in the yen and a rush for the exits by some investors.    This move led to significant losses in global stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei suffering its worst day since 1987.

 

HIGHER INFLATION IN THE YEARS AHEAD

It won’t matter who wins the Presidential election in November in relation to the markets.  Both parties favour large deficits despite a strong economy.  The federal debt is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020.  As a portion of the total U.S. economy, it is now more than 120%.  Debt has soared under Biden after Trump’s aggressive spending response to the pandemic increased the levels.

 

HEADLINES CORNER

Gov. Tim Walz gets the nod to be Democratic running mate beside Harris.

Reserve Bank of Australia keeps rates steady at 4.35%.

 

WHERE TO ADD WEIGHT (Scale in over time)

Amazon

Stock trades at just under 30 times expected earnings for the next 12 months. 

E-commerce business continues growing & remains competitive.

Grew advertising revenue 20% in the second quarter.

Cloud sales rose 19%, driven by artificial intelligence products.

Spending should remain in check in relation to revenue growth, so profit margins should expand. 

Wall Street expects EPS to grow about 37% annually through 2026 from this year. (FactSet)

 

 

Amazon Daily Chart

 

Nvidia

Analysts expect stock to reach over $100 billion in revenue this year.

Total sales of $115 billion for 2024 appear realistic.

Earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $2.59 has not changed.

Considering all the above, NVDA could be on track to grow to the expected $3.66 next year.

Stock trades at 28 times expected 2025 earnings per share.

 

 

Nvidia Daily Chart

 

CRYPTO CORNER

If you have been watching this area, you saw that Bitcoin dropped below $50k briefly on Monday to around the $48k area.  All these corrective selloffs are scale in days, if you are interested in Bitcoin and the crypto space.  With institutional adoption only increasing and political parties shifting their stance toward crypto indicating a warmer embrace of the asset, this could be an opportune time to add exposure to bitcoin ahead of what could be excellent returns over the coming year and beyond.

For those who are interested in Bitcoin miners, there are about a half dozen recommended by analysts.  Of these, there is just one I would give my attention to.  Core Scientific (CORZ). ($9.71)

Core Scientific turned down an offer from the cloud AI startup CoreWeave to acquire them for $5.75 per share.   It is believed that the bid is higher now and that the deal will increase considerably in the coming months. Some analysts, including Cantor Fitzgerald, have a $20 price target on the stock, implying about 143% upside.  (Note: our only crypto exposure is MicroStrategy). 

 

Daily Chart (CORZ) $9.71

 

 

Weekly Chart (CORZ) $9.71

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 12:00:182024-08-07 13:06:36August 7, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (META) August 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 10:46:022024-08-07 10:55:42Trade Alert - (META) August 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (DE) August 7, 2024 - GO SHORT

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 10:27:572024-08-07 10:27:57Trade Alert - (DE) August 7, 2024 - GO SHORT
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) August 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 09:20:462024-08-07 09:20:46Trade Alert - (NVDA) August 7, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 7, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 7, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT DEBIT SPREADS)

(TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 09:04:392024-08-07 11:58:51August 7, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 7, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“I was shocked to see how predictable people were,” said Andreas Weigend, Amazon’s Chief Data Analyst.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/clock.png 316 566 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-07 09:00:082024-08-07 11:56:49August 7, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

August 6, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 6, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED)

(PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-06 12:02:042024-08-06 12:44:32August 6, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Just What The Doctor Ordered

Biotech Letter

Remember when everyone thought Pfizer (PFE) was just a one-hit COVID wonder? Well, it looks like they're proving the naysayers wrong. Let's dive into this medical marvel, shall we?

Pfizer just dropped its Q2 results, and boy, did they deliver a shot in the arm to Wall Street expectations. Revenue hit $13.28 billion, beating estimates by 2.02%.

But the real showstopper? Earnings per share of $0.6, smashing expectations by a whopping 30.19%.

Now, I know what you're assuming: "Isn't Pfizer still riding that COVID wave?"

Well, excluding COVID-19 products, revenue growth was actually a healthy 14% year-over-year. It's like Pfizer's been hitting the gym, bulking up its non-COVID muscles.

Speaking of muscles, let's talk about those margins. The adjusted gross margin pumped up to 79% from 76%. That's a 300 basis point improvement.

But that’s not all. Recently, Pfizer hasn’t only been focused on flexing its financial muscles but also trimming the fat.

Their operating expenses only increased by 5% year-over-year. They're also on track to deliver at least $4 billion in net cost savings by the end of 2024.

Clearly, Pfizer's been pinching pennies harder than a Depression-era grandma.

Now, let's talk about Pfizer's pipeline – the real meat and potatoes here. In 2023 alone, they got FDA approvals for 9 new drugs. That's more approvals than a helicopter parent gives on prom night. And they're not stopping there.

By the end of 2024, they're expecting to launch 20 new products or indications. It's like they're running a drug development assembly line over there.

Notably, Pfizer's oncology segment is quickly growing. Sales hit almost $4 billion in Q2, and with the recent acquisition of Seagen, they're positioning themselves as the oncology powerhouse of the future.

We're talking about a potential market size of over $300 billion by 2030. That's enough zeros to make your head spin faster than a centrifuge.

And let's not forget about their market dominance. Prevnar 20 is ruling the pediatric segment with over 80% market share in the U.S.

But the real dark horse here is their foray into the obesity market. With their GLP-1 agonist in development, they're eyeing a piece of a market that's expected to hit $100 billion by 2030.

Next, let's get down to the nitty-gritty of R&D. Pfizer's been pouring money into research like it's watering a money tree.

They spent a whopping $11.4 billion on R&D in 2023, up 10% from the previous year. That's about 15.7% of their revenue – higher than the industry average of 13.4%.

But despite all this good news, Pfizer's stock is trading at just 11 times projected earnings. In fact, Wall Street analysts are giving modest EPS growth projections.

In my humble opinion, though, a fair valuation for Pfizer should be at least 15 times earnings. And with a dividend yield above 5.5% for the next few years, it's like getting paid to wait for the market to wake up and smell the antibiotics.

Of course, it's not all rainbows and unicorns in Pfizer-land.

They've got some patent expirations coming up that could hit sales harder than a heavyweight boxer. Between 2025 and 2030, they're facing potential losses on products that generated $17 billion in peak sales. That's a pill even Pfizer might have trouble swallowing.

And let's not forget about the elephant in the room – healthcare reform.

With politicians yakking about drug pricing like it's the latest reality TV drama, there's always a risk of regulatory headwinds. But Pfizer's diverse portfolio and global reach give it more shock absorbers than a monster truck.

So, what's the play here? Well, assuming Pfizer keeps managing costs like a coupon-clipping grandma, they could easily beat current forecasts by 10% or more by the end of 2024.

If the market finally recognizes Pfizer's potential and grants it a P/E ratio of 14x, we're looking at a price target of $43.4.

That's a 42% upside from the recent closing price – more juice than you'd get from a whole orchard of oranges.

So, here's the bottom line: Pfizer's current stock price is criminally undervalued. With its robust pipeline, improving margins, and commitment to dividends, I'm suggesting you buy this stock faster than you can say "take two and call me in the morning."

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-06 12:00:552024-08-06 12:44:43Just What The Doctor Ordered
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (AAPL) August 6, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-06 10:34:152024-08-06 10:34:15Trade Alert - (AAPL) August 6, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (MSFT) August 6, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-08-06 10:15:312024-08-06 10:15:31Trade Alert - (MSFT) August 6, 2024 - BUY
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