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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Friday, January 31, 2025 Salt Lake City, Utah Strategy Luncheon

Lunch

 

Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting high in the western desert in Salt Lake City, Utah at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. The event begins at 12:00 noon on Friday, January 31, 2025.

A three-course meal will be provided and an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today will take place. The dress is business casual.

I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, China, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $276.

I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held in a private room at a downtown Salt Lake City restaurant, the details of which will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/salt-lake.png 318 564 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-10-17 09:04:362025-02-21 11:48:54SOLD OUT - Friday, January 31, 2025 Salt Lake City, Utah Strategy Luncheon
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant.

Diary, Newsletter

A 35% move-up in one day certainly gets one’s attention. The move was prompted by Microsoft’s (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Amazon’s (AMZN) move into the nuclear industry to supply electricity for AI data centers over the past two weeks.

Building on my early career at the Atomic Energy Commission in the 1970’s, I have been covering this company since 2012, and it has been a long and windy road. In one shot, they have solved the dozen problems that held the industry back in the 1950’s.

But thanks to Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, nuclear had the kiss of death on it, making it impossible for the company to raise capital. The Company finally went public in May 2022 at $10.55 with major backing from Bill Gates, with the ticker symbol of (SMR) for “small modular reactor.”

Then, it rallied 60% when it obtained its first order. It then crashed to $1.80 in 2023 when that single order was canceled. It has doubled since September 1, when the new nuclear movement gained traction.

Nuscale’s design eliminates the risk of a meltdown by refining uranium into small pellets and then encasing them with five layers of zirconium. The heat generated is enough to boil water but not go supercritical. The cost of huge billion-dollar containment structures is eliminated by putting the plants underground.

Below, find my original 2012 research piece.

“On my recent trip to Oregon, I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing the brave new world of “new” nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis.

This is definitely not your father’s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design certification with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a mini-light water reactor with a passive cooling system rated at 45 megawatts. The idea is to site a dozen of these together, which in aggregate can generate 540 Megawatts, little more than half the size of the old 1-gigawatt monsters.

Running a dozen small reactors instead of one big one makes for vastly easier operation and maintenance, as individual units can be brought on and offline as needed. Small size also eliminates the need for gargantuan, expensive containment structures.

This power source runs at night when solar and wind plants are offline. Modular design makes mass production of these units economical. Once certification, approval, permitting, and construction are complete, we can expect to see the NuScale plants running by 2018.

After all, if something similar works in nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers, why not in industrial zones on the outskirts of town? For more on NuScale’s innovative efforts, visit their website by clicking here.”

While the stock has already had a great run from the bottom up tenfold, it's probably not too late to buy. This could be another Nvidia-type situation.

 

 

 

 

 

My Old Jeep

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/old-jeep.png 822 1096 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-17 09:02:102024-10-17 10:22:30This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant.
DougD

October 17, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster," said the Civil War General, William T. Sherman.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/William-T.-Sherman.jpg 260 260 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2024-10-17 09:00:242024-10-17 10:22:01October 17, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 16, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE CHIP TRADE IS STILL IN-TACT)
(ASML)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-16 14:04:022024-10-16 14:52:22October 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Chip Trade Is Still In-Tact

Tech Letter

Computer chip equipment maker ASML said they will cut 2025 financial guidance, citing weakness in markets other than AI and delayed orders.

This triggered a steep sell-off in many chip names, and I view this as a healthy event.

We are bombarded with so much robust news from the chip sector that it is hard for investors to catch their breath before the next spike higher in underlying shares.

Once in a while, it is highly positive to recalibrate momentum and allow the stock to settle.

Chips are definitely boom-and-bust stocks, and we are right in the middle of the boom. and I wouldn’t be too worried for other chip companies as we head into earnings.

This is a great chance to buy the dip in many of the best of class.

Europe's most valuable technology company, ASML, as an essential supplier to chipmakers, is not in question. But doubts have emerged over short-term sales and, for the longer term, whether it can continue to outgrow the overall market.

ASML's dominance of the market for lithography tools needed to create circuitry triggered the stock to all-time highs before this recent weakness.

After the health crisis of the early 2020’s, customers stopped overbuying, which reduced demand.

Now, ASML said some customers had announced delays of new plants and upgrades, including makers of the logic chips used in smartphones, PCs, and other devices.

Manufacturers that make the memory chips that go into them also plan fewer expansions, meaning they can rely on existing equipment for longer.

That's especially the case for an upstream equipment supplier highly reliant on the spending plans of its manufacturing customers.

It’s highly likely that Taiwan Semiconductor was the company who decided to cut back on business with ASML.

TSMC has been spending rather low capex numbers so far this year, and they may do so again next year because their overall (plant) utilization is not as good as their sales numbers suggest.

Among ASML customers that make logic chips, Intel said in August it would cut capital spending by $10 billion in 2025, while Samsung has said it faces challenges at the factory it is building in Texas.

Roughly a quarter of chipmakers' spending on tools goes to ASML, though some analysts say changes in chip-making techniques could lead that to be lower.

Management also said that customer delays are also a negotiating tactic that may force pricing concessions from ASML, squeezing margins.

Ultimately, this is a temporary demand adjustment after years of outperformance, and I would allow the seasonality to work itself through the system.

I see no threat to the overall business model of ASML, and if bad news on ASML triggers hits to other great chip stocks, I would look at some short-term bull call spreads on strong chip stocks in the US.

At the very least, if you don’t buy the dip, don’t take the other side of the trade because, more often than not, this type of price action sets up a “rip your face off” rally to the upside.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-16 14:02:152024-10-16 14:52:44The Chip Trade Is Still In-Tact
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 16, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(A DISRUPTIVE MODEL COULD CHALLENGE THE BANKS)

October 16, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

The big banks are in control, and nothing could shift their dominance, right?

Well, it might be time for a re-think of that notion.

In banking, the most potent disruptive model is coming from a group called ‘Revolut’ and it has just moved a step closer to getting an Australian banking license.

 

It’s just got a banking license in the UK, which means an Australian license now looks like a sure thing.

In fact, it is already making some serious inroads in the local market; the company has signed up 720,000 customers already in Australia and has transaction volumes annualized at an estimated $1bn.

Overseas, there are approximately 45 million very happy customers who have left the old banking players behind.

Revolut’s big chief, 40-year-old Russian-born Nikolay Stornosky, says he aims for the group to become the “Amazon of banking”.

So, why is Revolut such a big deal?

It began as a card service competing with operators like Western Union and quickly built up an overseas network of customers who found it faster and cheaper than traditional banks.

Revolut’s headquarters are in London.  Its big breakthrough came when it got an EU license.  More recently, the Bank of England license confirmed its status as a fully-fledged financial juggernaut, and it can now do everything from mortgages to deposits.

According to Matt Baxby, Chief Executive of Australian Operations, Revolut in Australia is growing at 100% a year, and that’s with a very low profile.

One outstanding feature is the security feature.  It offers a once-off card number for any payment.

We are all aware of some of the trepidations we have when traveling and handing over our card numbers.  Once a fraudulent operation has your number, you are in big trouble.  Revolut’s “disposable card” regenerates your number after each use:  problem quickly solved.

Revolut is currently estimated to be worth about $45bn off the back of a recent share sell-down, making it about one-fifth the size of CBA.

QI CORNER

 

 

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-16 12:00:242024-10-16 11:55:09October 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (GLD) October 15, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 12:47:332024-10-15 12:47:33Trade Alert - (GLD) October 15, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 15, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 15, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE BRIGHT SIDE OF A DARK DIAGNOSIS)

(ILMN), (TMO), (A), (QGEN), (GH), (PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 12:02:202024-10-15 12:19:50October 15, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis

Biotech Letter

Let's face it. Cancer is still kicking our collective butts.

Despite all the fancy lab coats and high-tech gadgets, cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. It's like that annoying party guest who just won't leave, no matter how many hints you drop.

This year alone, more than 2 million Americans are expected to hear those dreaded words: "You have cancer." And sadly, over 600,000 of our fellow citizens will lose their battle with this relentless foe in 2024.

Before you start thinking I'm all doom and gloom, let me flip the script for you. Where there's a problem, there's opportunity. And in this case, we're talking about a massive opportunity to put your investment dollars to work.

Back in 2020, America shelled out a whopping $200 billion on cancer treatments. By 2030, that number is projected to skyrocket to over $245 billion. That's a growth trajectory that’s worth our attention, don’t you think?

So, let's dive into the world of cancer-fighting stocks. There are some heavy hitters in this space that deserve your attention.

First up, we've got Illumina (ILMN), the gene-sequencing giant. These folks are like the Sherlock Holmes of the genetic world, helping researchers crack the cancer code.

With over 21,600 of their systems installed worldwide, Illumina is the go-to company for anyone looking to dive deep into our genetic makeup.

But here's the thing - Illumina isn't just about cancer. Their tech is used in everything from studying infectious diseases to figuring out if your unborn baby is likely to be the next Einstein.

And while they're tight-lipped about their exact market share, word on the street is they're still the big fish in the gene-sequencing pond.

In fact, let me throw some numbers at you. Illumina holds a whopping 80% market share among the seven main pure-play next-generation sequencing companies.

Even if we toss in some non-pure-play heavyweights like Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Agilent Technologies (A), and Qiagen (QGEN), Illumina's still sitting pretty with roughly two-thirds of the global market.

And get this - despite the industry facing some macro headwinds, Illumina's market share has held steady over the past couple of years. Talk about staying power.

Speaking of big fish, Illumina recently spun off Grail (GRAL), but they've still got their fingers in that pie with a 14.5% stake.

Grail is all about liquid biopsy products – fancy talk for finding cancer through a simple blood test. It's a promising field, but Illumina's not the only player in town.

Enter the new kids on the block: Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics. Backed by venture capital and hungry for a piece of the action, these upstarts are shaking things up. Element's focusing on accuracy, while Ultima's all about high-volume, low-cost sequencing.

While we're on the topic of liquid biopsies, let's talk about Guardant Health (GH). These folks are the pioneers in finding tiny bits of tumor DNA floating around in your blood. Their Guardant360 product was the first FDA-approved liquid biopsy for all advanced solid tumors. That's like hitting a home run in your first major league at-bat.

But Guardant Health isn't resting on its laurels. They've got a whole suite of products, from tissue biopsies to tests that can tell if your cancer treatment is working. And get this – they're looking at a $30 billion annual market just in cancer treatment selection and recurrence monitoring.

But it doesn't end there. Early-stage cancer detection could add another $50 billion to that pot in the U.S. alone.

As if that wasn't enough, Guardant Health just got FDA approval for their Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening in July 2024. Next stop? Lung cancer. These folks are aiming to create a test that can catch multiple cancers early.

And let's not forget the big boys. Pfizer (PFE), the pharmaceutical giant, is throwing its considerable weight into the cancer fight.

They've already got three blockbuster cancer drugs – Ibrance, Xtandi, and Inlyta – each raking in over a billion dollars a year. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Pfizer's got about 40 more cancer programs in clinical testing.

Still, Pfizer isn't just relying on its own lab coats. They're not afraid to open up their wallet either. In 2021, they snatched up Trillium Therapeutics to beef up their blood cancer portfolio. And in 2023, they added Seagen to their collection, giving them a leg up in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer treatment.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "But what if the cancer market dries up?" (As if!) Well, Pfizer's got that covered too. They're big players in the vaccine market, with their new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Abrysvo, looking set to bring in some serious cash.

So there you have it. The war on cancer is far from over, but these companies are leading the charge. And while they're fighting to save lives, they might just help fatten up your portfolio too. I suggest you add these names to your watchlist and buy the dip.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 12:00:432024-10-15 12:23:38The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 15, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 15, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE NEW OFFSHORE CENTER: AMERICA),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 09:06:152024-10-15 10:58:37October 15, 2024
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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