A 35% move-up in one day certainly gets one’s attention. The move was prompted by Microsoft’s (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Amazon’s (AMZN) move into the nuclear industry to supply electricity for AI data centers over the past two weeks.
Building on my early career at the Atomic Energy Commission in the 1970’s, I have been covering this company since 2012, and it has been a long and windy road. In one shot, they have solved the dozen problems that held the industry back in the 1950’s.
But thanks to Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, nuclear had the kiss of death on it, making it impossible for the company to raise capital. The Company finally went public in May 2022 at $10.55 with major backing from Bill Gates, with the ticker symbol of (SMR) for “small modular reactor.”
Then, it rallied 60% when it obtained its first order. It then crashed to $1.80 in 2023 when that single order was canceled. It has doubled since September 1, when the new nuclear movement gained traction.
Nuscale’s design eliminates the risk of a meltdown by refining uranium into small pellets and then encasing them with five layers of zirconium. The heat generated is enough to boil water but not go supercritical. The cost of huge billion-dollar containment structures is eliminated by putting the plants underground.
Below, find my original 2012 research piece.
“On my recent trip to Oregon, I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing the brave new world of “new” nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis.
This is definitely not your father’s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design certification with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a mini-light water reactor with a passive cooling system rated at 45 megawatts. The idea is to site a dozen of these together, which in aggregate can generate 540 Megawatts, little more than half the size of the old 1-gigawatt monsters.
Running a dozen small reactors instead of one big one makes for vastly easier operation and maintenance, as individual units can be brought on and offline as needed. Small size also eliminates the need for gargantuan, expensive containment structures.
This power source runs at night when solar and wind plants are offline. Modular design makes mass production of these units economical. Once certification, approval, permitting, and construction are complete, we can expect to see the NuScale plants running by 2018.
After all, if something similar works in nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers, why not in industrial zones on the outskirts of town? For more on NuScale’s innovative efforts, visit their website by clicking here.”
While the stock has already had a great run from the bottom up tenfold, it's probably not too late to buy. This could be another Nvidia-type situation.
My Old Jeep
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/old-jeep.png8221096april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-17 09:02:102024-10-17 10:22:30This is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Power Plant.
"Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster," said the Civil War General, William T. Sherman.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/William-T.-Sherman.jpg260260DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2024-10-17 09:00:242024-10-17 10:22:01October 17, 2024 - Quote of the Day
Computer chip equipment maker ASML said they will cut 2025 financial guidance, citing weakness in markets other than AI and delayed orders.
This triggered a steep sell-off in many chip names, and I view this as a healthy event.
We are bombarded with so much robust news from the chip sector that it is hard for investors to catch their breath before the next spike higher in underlying shares.
Once in a while, it is highly positive to recalibrate momentum and allow the stock to settle.
Chips are definitely boom-and-bust stocks, and we are right in the middle of the boom. and I wouldn’t be too worried for other chip companies as we head into earnings.
This is a great chance to buy the dip in many of the best of class.
Europe's most valuable technology company, ASML, as an essential supplier to chipmakers, is not in question. But doubts have emerged over short-term sales and, for the longer term, whether it can continue to outgrow the overall market.
ASML's dominance of the market for lithography tools needed to create circuitry triggered the stock to all-time highs before this recent weakness.
After the health crisis of the early 2020’s, customers stopped overbuying, which reduced demand.
Now, ASML said some customers had announced delays of new plants and upgrades, including makers of the logic chips used in smartphones, PCs, and other devices.
Manufacturers that make the memory chips that go into them also plan fewer expansions, meaning they can rely on existing equipment for longer.
That's especially the case for an upstream equipment supplier highly reliant on the spending plans of its manufacturing customers.
It’s highly likely that Taiwan Semiconductor was the company who decided to cut back on business with ASML.
TSMC has been spending rather low capex numbers so far this year, and they may do so again next year because their overall (plant) utilization is not as good as their sales numbers suggest.
Among ASML customers that make logic chips, Intel said in August it would cut capital spending by $10 billion in 2025, while Samsung has said it faces challenges at the factory it is building in Texas.
Roughly a quarter of chipmakers' spending on tools goes to ASML, though some analysts say changes in chip-making techniques could lead that to be lower.
Management also said that customer delays are also a negotiating tactic that may force pricing concessions from ASML, squeezing margins.
Ultimately, this is a temporary demand adjustment after years of outperformance, and I would allow the seasonality to work itself through the system.
I see no threat to the overall business model of ASML, and if bad news on ASML triggers hits to other great chip stocks, I would look at some short-term bull call spreads on strong chip stocks in the US.
At the very least, if you don’t buy the dip, don’t take the other side of the trade because, more often than not, this type of price action sets up a “rip your face off” rally to the upside.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-16 14:02:152024-10-16 14:52:44The Chip Trade Is Still In-Tact
The big banks are in control, and nothing could shift their dominance, right?
Well, it might be time for a re-think of that notion.
In banking, the most potent disruptive model is coming from a group called ‘Revolut’ and it has just moved a step closer to getting an Australian banking license.
It’s just got a banking license in the UK, which means an Australian license now looks like a sure thing.
In fact, it is already making some serious inroads in the local market; the company has signed up 720,000 customers already in Australia and has transaction volumes annualized at an estimated $1bn.
Overseas, there are approximately 45 million very happy customers who have left the old banking players behind.
Revolut’s big chief, 40-year-old Russian-born Nikolay Stornosky, says he aims for the group to become the “Amazon of banking”.
So, why is Revolut such a big deal?
It began as a card service competing with operators like Western Union and quickly built up an overseas network of customers who found it faster and cheaper than traditional banks.
Revolut’s headquarters are in London.Its big breakthrough came when it got an EU license.More recently, the Bank of England license confirmed its status as a fully-fledged financial juggernaut, and it can now do everything from mortgages to deposits.
According to Matt Baxby, Chief Executive of Australian Operations, Revolut in Australia is growing at 100% a year, and that’s with a very low profile.
One outstanding feature is the security feature.It offers a once-off card number for any payment.
We are all aware of some of the trepidations we have when traveling and handing over our card numbers.Once a fraudulent operation has your number, you are in big trouble.Revolut’s “disposable card” regenerates your number after each use:problem quickly solved.
Revolut is currently estimated to be worth about $45bn off the back of a recent share sell-down, making it about one-fifth the size of CBA.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
Let's face it. Cancer is still kicking our collective butts.
Despite all the fancy lab coats and high-tech gadgets, cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. It's like that annoying party guest who just won't leave, no matter how many hints you drop.
This year alone, more than 2 million Americans are expected to hear those dreaded words: "You have cancer." And sadly, over 600,000 of our fellow citizens will lose their battle with this relentless foe in 2024.
Before you start thinking I'm all doom and gloom, let me flip the script for you. Where there's a problem, there's opportunity. And in this case, we're talking about a massive opportunity to put your investment dollars to work.
Back in 2020, America shelled out a whopping $200 billion on cancer treatments. By 2030, that number is projected to skyrocket to over $245 billion. That's a growth trajectory that’s worth our attention, don’t you think?
So, let's dive into the world of cancer-fighting stocks. There are some heavy hitters in this space that deserve your attention.
First up, we've got Illumina (ILMN), the gene-sequencing giant. These folks are like the Sherlock Holmes of the genetic world, helping researchers crack the cancer code.
With over 21,600 of their systems installed worldwide, Illumina is the go-to company for anyone looking to dive deep into our genetic makeup.
But here's the thing - Illumina isn't just about cancer. Their tech is used in everything from studying infectious diseases to figuring out if your unborn baby is likely to be the next Einstein.
And while they're tight-lipped about their exact market share, word on the street is they're still the big fish in the gene-sequencing pond.
In fact, let me throw some numbers at you. Illumina holds a whopping 80% market share among the seven main pure-play next-generation sequencing companies.
Even if we toss in some non-pure-play heavyweights like Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Agilent Technologies (A), and Qiagen (QGEN), Illumina's still sitting pretty with roughly two-thirds of the global market.
And get this - despite the industry facing some macro headwinds, Illumina's market share has held steady over the past couple of years. Talk about staying power.
Speaking of big fish, Illumina recently spun off Grail (GRAL), but they've still got their fingers in that pie with a 14.5% stake.
Grail is all about liquid biopsy products – fancy talk for finding cancer through a simple blood test. It's a promising field, but Illumina's not the only player in town.
Enter the new kids on the block: Element Biosciences and Ultima Genomics. Backed by venture capital and hungry for a piece of the action, these upstarts are shaking things up. Element's focusing on accuracy, while Ultima's all about high-volume, low-cost sequencing.
While we're on the topic of liquid biopsies, let's talk about Guardant Health (GH). These folks are the pioneers in finding tiny bits of tumor DNA floating around in your blood. Their Guardant360 product was the first FDA-approved liquid biopsy for all advanced solid tumors. That's like hitting a home run in your first major league at-bat.
But Guardant Health isn't resting on its laurels. They've got a whole suite of products, from tissue biopsies to tests that can tell if your cancer treatment is working. And get this – they're looking at a $30 billion annual market just in cancer treatment selection and recurrence monitoring.
But it doesn't end there. Early-stage cancer detection could add another $50 billion to that pot in the U.S. alone.
As if that wasn't enough, Guardant Health just got FDA approval for their Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening in July 2024. Next stop? Lung cancer. These folks are aiming to create a test that can catch multiple cancers early.
And let's not forget the big boys. Pfizer (PFE), the pharmaceutical giant, is throwing its considerable weight into the cancer fight.
They've already got three blockbuster cancer drugs – Ibrance, Xtandi, and Inlyta – each raking in over a billion dollars a year. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Pfizer's got about 40 more cancer programs in clinical testing.
Still, Pfizer isn't just relying on its own lab coats. They're not afraid to open up their wallet either. In 2021, they snatched up Trillium Therapeutics to beef up their blood cancer portfolio. And in 2023, they added Seagen to their collection, giving them a leg up in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer treatment.
Now, I know what you're thinking. "But what if the cancer market dries up?" (As if!) Well, Pfizer's got that covered too. They're big players in the vaccine market, with their new respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Abrysvo, looking set to bring in some serious cash.
So there you have it. The war on cancer is far from over, but these companies are leading the charge. And while they're fighting to save lives, they might just help fatten up your portfolio too. I suggest you add these names to your watchlist and buy the dip.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-15 12:00:432024-10-15 12:23:38The Bright Side Of A Dark Diagnosis
Talk about a wake-up call for anyone still sleeping on AI.
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics just went to John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton, two guys who've been tinkering with artificial brains since before most of us knew what a smartphone was.
This isn't just some ivory tower pat on the back - it's a flashing neon sign pointing to where the real action is in the stock market.
Let's break it down. Hopfield, the Princeton brainiac, cooked up something called the Hopfield Network back in '82. Think of it as the great-granddaddy of today's neural networks.
It showed how these artificial neurons could play catch with patterns, storing and spitting them back out. Fast forward to now, and this is behind practically everything from your phone's face recognition to Wall Street's algorithmic trading.
Then there's Hinton, the guy they call the "Godfather of AI." He's the reason your Netflix knows what you want to watch before you do.
His work on deep learning and those back-propagation algorithms? That's what's powering the chatbots that are making customer service reps sweat and the AI that's reading X-rays faster than radiologists.
So, why should we care? Because this Nobel nod isn't just about science. It's about cold, hard cash. The global AI market? It's not just growing; it's exploding.
We're talking $207.9 billion in 2023, and it's gunning for $1.8 trillion by 2030. That's a 36.2% compound annual growth rate.
Need more proof? Chew on this: 85% of enterprises are already knee-deep in AI. That's up from 77% just two years ago.
And the money pouring into AI? Corporate bigwigs dumped $94 billion into it last year alone, a 13% jump from the year before.
But here's where it gets real for us regular folks - AI isn't just some back-office tech anymore. We're looking at 75 billion devices worldwide using AI. That's your phone, your car, maybe even your toaster. AI is everywhere, and it's only getting started.
So, where's the smart money going? Let’s take a look at some of the front runners.
First up, NVIDIA (NVDA). Its inclusion in this list is no surprise. After all, these guys are the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush. Their GPUs are the muscle behind AI computations. Q2 2024 numbers? Revenue hit $13.51 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. The stock's up 120% year-to-date.
Next is Alphabet (GOOGL). Google's parent company isn't just a search engine anymore. They're AI heavyweights, with Google Assistant in millions of homes and DeepMind pushing the boundaries of what's possible. Q2 2024 saw them rake in $74.6 billion, with their cloud segment (read: AI services) growing 22%. The stock's up 30% over the year.
As for Microsoft (MSFT), their OpenAI partnership and Azure integration are game-changers. Intelligent Cloud brought in $23.4 billion in Q4 2023, up 15% year-over-year. The stock? Up 35% year-to-date. Ballmer might be gone, but the money machine keeps humming.
Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) isn't just about two-day shipping anymore. Amazon Web Services is a beast, offering AI and machine learning services that are printing money. AWS pulled in $21.4 billion in Q2 2024. After a rough patch, the stock's bounced back, up 25% in six months.
Even old-school Intel (INTC) is getting in on the action. They're pushing hard into AI accelerators and neural network processors. Their Data Center and AI group brought in $4.0 billion in Q2 2024. The stock's up a modest 10% year-to-date, but they're just getting started.
But don't just stick to the big boys. Keep an eye on the up-and-comers.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is doing big things with big data and AI-driven decision-making. They saw a 49% jump in government contracts last year.
Then there's C3.ai (AI), pushing AI applications for enterprises. Their subscription revenues grew 34% last fiscal year.
Now, before you mortgage the house to buy AI stocks, remember - this isn't a get-rich-quick scheme. The AI market is definitely hot, but it's not without risks. Regulatory headwinds, ethical concerns, and good old-fashioned competition could throw some curveballs.
The smart play? Diversify. Mix some established tech giants with a sprinkle of AI pure-plays. And here's a pro tip: don't just stick to home turf. AI is a global game, and some of the most exciting innovations are happening beyond Silicon Valley.
In fact, it's turning into a full-blown international AI arms race. Some of the most mind-bending breakthroughs are popping up in places you might not expect.
For one, China's not messing around. They're gunning to be the world's AI superpower by 2030, and they're throwing everything but the kitchen sink at it.
Baidu (BIDU), China's answer to Google, is knee-deep in AI. Their autonomous driving platform, Apollo, is giving Tesla a run for its money. And let's not forget about their ChatGPT rival, ERNIE Bot. Baidu's stock? It's been a rollercoaster, but their AI chops are undeniable.
Then there's Alibaba (BABA). Jack Ma might be keeping a low profile these days, but Alibaba's AI game is loud and clear.
Their cloud computing arm is second only to Amazon in Asia, and they're pumping out AI solutions faster than you can say "e-commerce." From smart cities to healthcare AI, Alibaba's fingerprints are all over China's tech scene.
Hop over to South Korea, and you'll find Samsung (KRX: 005930) doing more than just making your phone. They're pouring billions into AI research, focusing on everything from smartphone chips to advanced semiconductors.
Their AI assistant, Bixby, might not be a household name like Siri, but don't count them out. Samsung's got the deep pockets and the tech savvy to be a major AI player.
In Japan, SoftBank Group (TYO: 9984) is making waves. Yeah, the same folks who had that WeWork debacle.
But here's the thing - their Vision Fund has its fingers in AI pies all over the world. From robotics to fintech, SoftBank's betting big on AI-driven startups. It's a high-risk, high-reward play, but that's Masayoshi Son's style.
Let's not forget Europe. DeepMind, now under Alphabet's umbrella, started life in London. But there's more brewing across the pond. Take ASML Holding (ASML) in the Netherlands.
They're not an AI company per se, but their extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are crucial for making the advanced chips that power AI. Without ASML, a lot of AI dreams would still be just that - dreams.
In Germany, SAP (SAP) is bringing AI to enterprise software. They're not as flashy as some AI pure-plays, but they're embedding machine learning and AI into the backbone of how businesses operate. It's not sexy, but it's where the rubber meets the road for AI in the corporate world.
And let's give a nod to Israel, the "Startup Nation." They're punching well above their weight in AI.
Companies like Mobileye (MBLY), now part of Intel, are leading the charge in autonomous driving tech. Or take a look at Cognyte Software (CGNT), using AI for security analytics. These folks are turning Israel into an AI powerhouse.
Even in India, which you might think of more for IT outsourcing, AI is taking off.
Reliance Industries (NSE: RELIANCE) is pouring money into AI research, looking to transform everything from retail to telecom. And then there’s Tata Consultancy Services (NSE: TCS), quietly becoming an AI consulting giant.
Clearly, this AI boom isn't just about individual companies anymore. It's spawning entire ecosystems. Shenzhen, Tel Aviv, Bengaluru - these are the new AI breeding grounds.
For us, it means more opportunities. Forget just watching the Nasdaq. You've also got to eyeball exchanges from Shanghai to Frankfurt and navigate regulatory minefields from Beijing to Brussels.
And here's the kicker - this global race is innovation on steroids. It's not about the biggest tech giant anymore, but who can innovate fastest and scale smartest.
Bottom line? Those two eggheads didn't just scramble the stock market - they whisked up a global AI omelet. So, I suggest you do your homework, spread your bets, and maybe learn some Mandarin. After all, the AI world's your oyster, and it’s time to go pearl hunting.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-14-171230.png350617Douglas Davenporthttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDouglas Davenport2024-10-14 17:14:092024-10-14 17:14:09HOW TWO EGGHEADS SCRAMBLED THE STOCK MARKET
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