Global Market Comments
January 29, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY GLOBALIZATION WORKS)
Global Market Comments
January 29, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY GLOBALIZATION WORKS)
Having been a vociferous supporter of globalization since its dawn, first during a decade spent as a reporter for The Economist magazine, and then as an investor, I can explain how our international trading system works, and especially why it works for the US.
While waiting for a flight at Miami Airport, there was a polyglot of travelers from all over the world.
Large groups of Chinese were led by flag-bearing guides. Italian Millennials mobbed the bars at night. English couples strolled the majestic limestone fortress walls soaking up the sunshine.
There was even the occasional American student backpacker repeating my own adventure from the 1960’s.
And you know what? This disparate international group shared many things in common.
Most of them spent much of the day glued to iPhones or Androids run by US-designed apps. Many were staying in accommodations organized by Airbnb (there were over 200 listings for the immediate Dubrovnik area).
They may have made the trip from the airport in an Uber cab. They wore Levis Strauss blue jeans. American pop music pulsed through their earbuds. Probably half of them arrived on a Boeing jet financed by the US Export-Import Bank.
In short, they were all sending enormous amounts of money to US companies and shareholders in more ways than they could possibly count, without realizing it.
You never used to see tourists from most countries, like Russia, Spain, Portugal, Italy, or Ireland.
They were too poor.
Rapidly rising standards of living created by globalization changed all of that, creating an enormous new market for American products, especially technology ones.
My Airbnb neighbors in Dubrovnik included a family from Malaysia and a young couple from South Korea.
You can see some of this impact in international balance of trade statistics. In 2024, the US ran a trade deficit with the world of $634 billion with consumer electronics, oil, clothes, and cars our largest imports.
Subtract our $294 billion surplus in services, which includes, financial services, education, patents, and other intellectual property, and that brings our current account deficit down by more than half to only $340 billion.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Trade data completely misses the enormous number of products and services that are now given away FOR FREE in exchange for the chance of earning some uncertain revenue at some future date.
And I include none other than the esteemed Mad Hedge Fund Trader in this category. Something like 99% of the visitors to my site never pay anything.
The monetary market value of the research I have given away for free is probably worth tens of millions of dollars.
In a pre-Internet, pre-globalized world, a service covering so many asset cases and individual stocks in real-time might have cost $100,000, if not $1 million.
And you know what? It would have been worth it!
Multiply this effect on a global scale and you see what I am talking about.
Give up your name and email address, and you can obtain almost any kind of online service for nothing. And as far as I know, no government agency has any measurement of this whatsoever.
Needless to say, the United States is far and away the leader in this immeasurable field.
By the way, this might also be the reason why the published productivity data has been so poor, despite the fact that US GDP has grown by 20% since 2009. Everywhere I look productivity is skyrocketing, including my own.
It also might be the reason why Amazon continuously sports a nosebleed valuation. Much of what they provide is FREE, and therefore immeasurable.
Of course, globalization wrought havoc on your life if you went into it with the wrong job in the wrong industry and an inadequate skill set.
Blue-collar workers tied to textiles, shoes, toys, and other low-value-added manufacturing were toast, as their jobs fled offshore.
If you didn’t retrain, or adapt you became an angry, mostly white man.
As my friend, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman likes to say, “Average doesn’t cut it anymore.”
However, while the jobs are gone, the bulk of the profits stayed here in the US. American companies offshored the $ 2-an-hour jobs (mass assembly) but kept the $100 an hour ones (design and marketing).
As my friends in the Chinese government never fail to point out, if they build the iPhone for $100 and we sell it for $1,500, we are the big winners, not them.
They believe we are perpetuating 19th-century colonialism by making wage slaves of their workers.
They may be right.
Globalization enables the US dollar to continue as the world’s reserve currency, as almost all international trade is conducted in the buck.
That is one of the greatest free lunches of all time. It enables the US government to indirectly control the global economy through its own monetary policy. Some half of all US government debt is owned by foreigners.
When sanctions forced Iran to drop out of the international trading system what did they get? A Great Depression that cut their GDP by 25%. You can’t run a country of 80 million with oil barter deals, gold, and bitcoins alone.
There are also the huge defense benefits that globalization brings us.
Back in the early days, the main reason to steer a country into capitalism was to prevent it from going communist, and therefore becoming an enemy.
Grow your allies and shrink your enemies, and your defense costs shrink dramatically, raising our standard of living.
That is what has happened.
Increased trade also boosted foreign standards of living, therefore creating a growing market for American goods and services.
This was the whole point of the World Trade Organization, NAFTA, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Humans rarely bite the hands that feed them. They are also highly unlikely to set fire to their paycheck or bomb the sources of income.
Make a foreigner a millionaire, and you turn him into a pacifist. I have seen this unfold time and again over the past half-century, be it in China, Russia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and most recently in Iran.
Create an embedded base of businessmen in any country who are getting rich off of you, and international relations invariably improve.
Any system based on greed is guaranteed to succeed.
A side benefit of all of this is that stock markets for up forever.
Since globalization started in earnest in 1951, the Dow Average has risen from $239 to $18,392, a prodigious gain of some 77-fold.
And you wondered why?
Globalization is the mechanism through which America is paid the dividend for all of the good deeds it has done and inventions it has created for the past century.
I am thinking about the construction of the Panama Canal, Lend Lease, and the Marshall Plan, as well as the transistor, memory chip, microprocessor, personal computer, Windows, the Internet, online commerce, the iPhone, and social media.
That is why globalization is a win-win-win for everyone.
There are really only two true communist countries left in the world, Cuba and North Korea, which never joined the international trading community. They also happen to have the planet’s lowest standard of living.
And Cuba will become totally capitalist within two years. Just give them a million iPhones, get them talking, and see what happens. Castro will become just another neighborhood in South San Francisco.
So why end a trading system from which America and its people have profited so mightily?
Exploring the Wonders of International Trade
“We have few, if any spare tires left,” said Mohamed El-Erian, CIO of mega bond house PIMCO, about the nail studded road ahead for the US economy.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 28, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(READY, RESET, GO)
(JNJ), (AAPL), (PFE), (ABBV), (RHHBY), (AZN), (SNY), (NVS)
I had to laugh when I saw Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Q4 earnings hit my screen earlier this month.
Here we have Wall Street wringing its hands over a slight revenue miss, sending shares down 3.5%, while management is busy plotting its path to pharma industry dominance.
The numbers tell an interesting story.
Q4 revenues grew 5.3% (or 5.7% on an adjusted operational basis) to $22.5 billion. Wall Street got the vapors because earnings came in at $1.41 per share, well below their $2.04 consensus.
Reminds me of the time analysts completely missed Apple's (AAPL) transformation into a services company.
For the full year 2024, JNJ delivered 4.3% sales growth (5.4% operational) to $88.8 billion, with earnings per share landing at $5.79, or $9.98 adjusted after swallowing a $(0.67) hit from acquired IPR&D charges.
Not too shabby for a company in transition.
Looking into 2025, management is guiding for 2.5-3.5% operational sales growth ($90.9-91.7 billion) and adjusted operational EPS of $10.75-$10.95.
That's 8.7% growth at the midpoint, though they're careful to hedge around legal proceedings and acquisition costs.
And here's where it gets interesting.
During last week's JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, CEO Joaquin Duato was practically bouncing in his chair about their drug pipeline. Let's look at what's got him so excited.
Darzalex, their multiple myeloma superstar, raked in $11.67 billion in 2024, up 20%.
The new kid Carvykti exploded 93% higher to $963 million. Tecvayli landed $550 million in its rookie year.
Depression med Spravato jumped 56% to hit the magic $1 billion mark. Tremfya, their Stelara successor, grew 17% to $3.7 billion.
Speaking of Stelara – there's the elephant in the room.
JNJ's crown jewel is losing patent protection, already showing up in Europe with a >12% sequential decline in Q4 to $2.35 billion. Expect a 30% "haircut" this year.
But here's what Wall Street is missing: JNJ saw this coming years ago.
They just dropped $14.6 billion on Intracellular Therapies, mostly debt-funded (they can afford it with only $31.3 billion in long-term debt and $19.98 billion in cash).
This brings them Caplyta, an antipsychotic med with blockbuster potential that's already approved for schizophrenia and bipolar disorders.
The medical device business isn't sitting still either.
Q4 worldwide revenues jumped 6.7% year-on-year. While Surgery was flat at $2.5 billion and Orthopedics grew a modest 2.5% to $2.32 billion, Vision popped 9% to $1.3 billion.
But the real story? Cardiovascular surged 24% to $2.1 billion. Those Shockwave and Abiomed acquisitions are looking pretty smart right about now.
For the year, MedTech grew 4% to $31.56 billion. Operating margins slipped a bit – Innovative Medicines down from 42% to 39.4%, MedTech from 23.7% to 21.6%.
Late-stage pipeline products nearing approval should ease R&D expenses in 2025, just as JNJ gears up for its next growth phase.
The foundation looks rock solid - $19.98 billion in cash, $31.3 billion in long-term debt, 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.75-$10.95, and that reliable $1.24 quarterly dividend.
But forget the current numbers - the real money's in what's coming next.
Here's what the market is missing: JNJ is promising 5-7% compound annual growth between 2025-2030, with ten drugs hitting $5+ billion in annual sales by decade's end.
Sound ambitious? Maybe. But they've got the pipeline to back it up – from immunology stars nipocalimab and icotrokinra to neuroscience contenders seltorexant and aticaprant, plus oncology plays like TAR-200 for bladder cancer.
I've seen this movie before with AbbVie (ABBV), which navigated the loss of $20+ billion Humira without missing a beat.
And JNJ looks even better positioned - their pharma division is targeting $58 billion in 2024 revenues, which would make them the biggest player in Big Pharma, ahead of Pfizer (PFE), AbbVie (ABBV), Roche (RHHBY), AstraZeneca (AZN), Sanofi (SNY) and Novartis (NVS).
The only real wildcard? That pesky talc litigation.
JNJ's latest move – spinning the lawsuits into Red River Talc LLC and filing for bankruptcy – could cap the damage at $8.5 billion. They claim 75% of claimants are on board, with a court ruling expected this month.
So, what's my take? I think JNJ's 2025 will be a "reset" year, especially the first half. But just like buying straw hats in winter, there might be an opportunity here for patient investors. Management says the back half will be stronger, setting up 2026 for what could be a very interesting guidance call.
While the market frets about Stelara's patent cliff, smart money is quietly building positions. That's why I'm maintaining my stand to buy the dip.
After all, sometimes the best trades are the ones that make you a bit uncomfortable at first. And if you're worried about patent cliffs, just ask any AbbVie shareholder how that worked out for them.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
January 28, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE NEW OFFSHORE CENTER: AMERICA),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
Officials in South Dakota have figured out how to make up for the complete collapse of their oil fracking industry. They are morphing the Peace Garden State into a major offshore banking center.
South Dakota is not alone. Some 200,000 corporations, limited liability companies, and family trusts are registered in remote Stateline, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe.
And there has been a sudden outbreak of expensive John Lobb shoes, Turnbull & Asser shirts, and Brioni suites in rustic Cheyenne, Wyoming, as foreign bankers and their high-paid tax attorneys descend on the city in droves.
Meet the United States of America, the new tax haven capital of the world.
Friends in the business told me that accounts in Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, and the British Virgin Islands are being closed down by the tens of thousands and moved to the US shores.
Almost all of this money is being transferred by wealthy European, Middle Eastern, and Chinese families who are more interested in “return of capital” than “return on capital.”
It’s best to pay a few dollars in American taxes than have your money expropriated by a corrupt and covetous foreign government, have your children kidnapped, or get stood up against a wall and shot.
The move was prompted by the Obama administration, which pushed through the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act of 2010, known as FACTA.
Its goal was to flush out wealthy Americans hiding income and assets abroad. The law saddles offshore banks with hefty penalties and fines for helping US citizens avoid the IRS.
For example, Rothschild Bank was hit with a $11.5 million fine for helping 300 Americans hide $794 million in assets.
The law has had the unintended consequence of bringing rich foreigners into compliance as well. It is almost impossible now for an American to open a bank or brokerage account in a country that is not FACTA-compliant.
You are really limited to the dubious domiciles of Nauru, Bahrain, and Vanuatu, all favorites of organized crime, drug dealers, and terrorist groups.
As a former Swiss banker myself, I can tell you that Swiss secrecy was always a myth.
The ice broke during the 1980s when Switzerland froze the accounts of the Ferdinand Marcos family (who I once interviewed for The Economist magazine), who had spent decades looting the government of the Philippines.
Investigators finally found the money invested in several office buildings in Manhattan. The money was eventually returned to the people of the Philippines.
The Swiss reputation for secrecy took a further blow in 2007 when Bradley Birkenfeld, a US citizen working for Union Bank of Switzerland, made the unfortunate decision to fly from Europe to the Caribbean, changing planes in New York City.
There, he was promptly arrested for helping his fellow countrymen avoid taxes. Among the many pearls of wisdom we learned from this case was that the bank advised clients to sneak cash out of the US by sticking large carat polished diamonds into toothpaste tubes.
As a result, 80 Swiss banks paid more than $5 billion in fines. Birkenfeld served a three-year jail sentence after turning over a list of 20,000 US clients. The IRS graciously allowed an amnesty period for his customers.
Birkenfeld was eventually paid a $104 million reward by the IRS Whistleblower Office for turning in his clients, some 30% of the taxes recovered, the largest in US history. Now, Birkenfeld has a wealth management problem of a different kind.
The Swiss haven’t been driven into the poor house yet. They are still holding $1.9 trillion in assets for foreign depositors.
The great irony in all of this is that a number of candidates have been campaigning for president, claiming that America is in a long-term decline and that money is leaving the country.
The foreign 1% beg to differ.
A Former Swiss Banker
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