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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 6, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 6, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

SPECIAL EARLY RETIREMENT ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO JOIN THE EARLY RETIREMENT STAMPEDE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-06 09:04:102025-02-06 16:14:31February 6, 2025
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Join the Early Retirement Stampede

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

There is a new social movement taking place which you probably haven’t heard about.

Increasing numbers of people, especially Millennials, are engineering their personal finances to make early retirement possible. I’m not talking about hanging it up at 60, 55, or even 50. I’m talking extreme early retirement, like 45, 40, or even 30!

I stumbled across a free app the other day at NerdWallet, and started playing around with a compound interest calculator to see just how much you had to save on a monthly basis to make such incredible early retirements possible. What I discovered was amazing. To check it out, please click here.

And here is the big revelation. Assuming that you started saving at the age of 20, you only need to bank $2,150 a month to reach $1 million in retirement savings by the age of 40. If you earn the country’s average wage of $60,000 a year, and you’re paying $1,000 a month in taxes, that means you only have $1,850 a month left to handle housing, health care, education, transportation, and food.

The key to becoming a savings hog is to get off the consumer spending treadmill we have all been trained to plod since birth. You don’t have to endlessly upgrade to ever larger McMansions, especially now that the SALT deductions are gone.

You don’t have to buy a new $50,000 car every three years either. Just buy a junk heap for $5,000 and run it forever. It’s amazing how much gas, insurance, maintenance, and interest payments can add up. I recommend a Toyota Corolla. They last forever.

And what is the most expensive luxury of all? Kids. Raising a child today costs a minimum of $250,000, and that assumes they don’t go to an Ivy League college. I know because I have five. A lot of Millennials are downsizing to one child, or none at all, and putting that quarter million towards their early retirement fund.

If you live here in the San Francisco Bay Area, this would mean living in a cardboard box under a freeway overpass. However, an increasing number of Millennials are engaging in what I call “income/expense” arbitrage.

Earn your income in an expensive city, like San Francisco, San Jose, or New York, but live in a cheap place like Reno, NV, Charlotte, NC, or Cedar Rapids IA. In that case, banking your $2,150 a month is a piece of cake.

Those who work online, about 25% of the Bay Area population now, have a particular advantage here. With a decent broadband connection, you can work anywhere.

Companies are going out of their way to facilitate this trend, requiring office attendance only from Tuesday to Thursday and permitting telecommuting on Monday and Friday. That enables distant, even interstate commutes. I have a Bay Area dentist who commutes from Santa Barbara 300 miles away every week on this schedule.

You can even do this at an international level. A couple can live like a king in Budapest, Hungary, or Quito, Ecuador for $1,000 a month, and in a beachfront home in Albania for $500. With that kind of overhead early retirement becomes a realistic short-term objective.

Once you retire you will have to live on $60,000 a year, or $5,000 a month, eminently doable in most of the country, not including your social security payments or taxes. And with national health care in the US likely over the next 20 years, health care costs are about to fall dramatically.

Provided you don’t pursue expensive hobbies like my retired friends, such as collecting vintage cars, racing horses, joining expensive golf clubs, or flying around in private jets, you should be able to live within these modest means.

How about camping? That is almost free!

Of course, you can’t live on the coasts for $60,000 a year. But you can do so easily in the heartland. That explains why California and New York home prices have been dead in the water for the last two years, while the Midwest is seeing a renaissance in regional home prices at one-third the cost.

You don’t have to completely retire either. Instead, you could abandon the pressure cooker that is high-tech today and downgrade to a small business, open a restaurant, or turn a hobby into a full-time job. A laid-off FedEx worker I met became a fly-fishing guide and helped me catch that 24-inch trout in Nevada.

It goes without saying that if this trend continues, there are major consequences for the economy, markets, and society that boggle the mind. Greatly higher savings rates will drive prices up and yields down on all investments.

The US birthrate is already well below the replacement rate at 2.1 per couple. Drive it lower and we could get trapped in the Japanese quicksand of an ever-shrinking population. That means fewer consumers and economic stagnation. Reducing working lives from 47 to only 20 years will inevitably create worker shortages, driving up wages and inflation.

There are a few problems with the ultra-early retirement strategy. The 6% return available today with relatively low-risk investments may not be available in a year or two. That would be the result of global quantitative easing that is taking interest rates down to zero everywhere.

This is crushing the investment returns for new retirees. As a result, instead of needing $1 million to generate a $60,000 annual income, you might need $2 million or more. I have been watching this happen to retirees in Japan for nearly 30 years, where interest rates have been near zero since the 1990s.

How much do you need to save each month if you want to retire at 30? Better start banking $6,050 a month. It may be time to upgrade your sleeping bag.

 

I Keep Failing at Retirement

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/John-with-fish-story-3-e1524263315551.jpg 378 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-02-06 09:02:312025-02-20 12:38:48How to Join the Early Retirement Stampede
MHFTR

February 6, 2025 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Kamikaze missions are rarely successful, least of all for the pilots," said Robert Gibbs, former White House Press Secretary.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Kamikaze-quote-of-the-day-e1527195979931.jpg 229 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2025-02-06 09:00:052025-02-06 16:14:04February 6, 2025 - Quote of the Day
Douglas Davenport

MARKET LOGIC.EXE HAS CRASHED

Mad Hedge AI

(AVGO), (GOOG), (META), (AMZN), (NVDA), (TSM)

Last weekend, while cleaning up my home office, I came across an old Intel 486 processor I'd kept as a memento from my first custom-built PC. 

Funny how things change - that chip had about 1.2 million transistors. Today's AI accelerator chips? We're talking billions. 

This old relic got me thinking about Broadcom (AVGO) and the recent market hysteria over AI chip competition.

Speaking of hysteria, let me tell you about the market's latest panic attack. When news broke about DeepSeek's supposedly cheaper-to-train Chinese language model, investors acted like someone had just announced the death of AI. 

Over $1 trillion in market cap vanished faster than a plate of cookies at a board meeting. 

And here's the kicker: DeepSeek reportedly spent just $5.6M on training compared to Google (GOOG) DeepMind's Gemini at $191M and OpenAI's GPT-4 at $78M.

Broadcom took a nasty hit in this selloff, dropping 17.3% at its worst. 

That's quite a haircut for a company that just reported AI-related revenues of $12.2B - a whopping 41% of their semiconductor business in FY2024. For more context, that's up 21 percentage points year-over-year.

But here's where it gets curious. While having lunch with a semiconductor industry veteran the other day, he couldn't stop talking about Broadcom's custom ASIC business. 

These aren't your garden-variety chips - they're custom-designed AI accelerators for the likes of Google, Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And guess what? All these companies are ramping up their AI spending, not cutting back.

The numbers tell an intriguing story. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the world's leading chip manufacturer, reports that their advanced 3nm and 5nm chips now represent 60% of revenue, up 8 points quarter-over-quarter and 10 points year-over-year. 

That's not the trajectory of a dying industry - that's a growth story with legs.

Want to talk about margins? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been enjoying gross margins of 75% in their latest quarter, up from 61.2% in FY2019, though down a bit from their peak of 78.4%. 

When you're making margins like that, you're practically printing money. No wonder hyperscalers are looking at custom ASICs as an alternative - and that's where Broadcom shines.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Broadcom to grow revenue and earnings at a CAGR of 16.3% and 23.1% through FY2027. 

That's not just impressive - it's an acceleration from their already robust historical growth of 17.9% and 18% between FY2019 and FY2024.

The stock isn't exactly cheap at 34.85x forward earnings, up from its 5-year mean of 20.11x. 

But in the context of the sector, with a forward PEG ratio of 1.69x compared to the sector median of 1.82x, it's still digestible. 

NVIDIA, by comparison, trades at 40.66x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.07x.

Yes, the dividend yield has dropped to 1.07% from its 5-year average of 2.76%, but that's what happens when your stock becomes a market darling. 

Short sellers seem to agree - they've reduced their bets against Broadcom by 7.9% compared to last year.

Here's my bottom line: The market's reaction to DeepSeek looks like a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. 

Broadcom isn't just riding the AI wave - they're helping build the surfboard. Their custom ASIC business is perfectly positioned as tech giants look to optimize their AI infrastructure costs.

That old 486 processor sitting on my desk reminds me of an important lesson: in tech, it's not about where we've been, but where we're going. 

And Broadcom? They're headed toward the next generation of AI chips, with volume shipments of 3nm ASICs scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2025.

For now, I'm calling this one a Buy on any pullbacks. Sometimes the market hands you a gift wrapped in panic - this might be one of those times.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2025-02-05 16:22:542025-02-05 16:22:54MARKET LOGIC.EXE HAS CRASHED
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 5, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AMAZON DOESN’T NEED WORKERS)
(AMZN), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 14:04:562025-02-05 16:15:47February 5, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Amazon Doesn't Need Workers

Tech Letter

Flatten the curve!

No, I am not talking about that 2020 thing, I am talking about the CEO of Amazon Andy Jassy’s vendetta to remove the middle manager tier out of the company he runs.

Flatten the curve so there is no more middle manager and everyone is on the same level with higher-ups rejoicing with the entry levels.

Everything sounds ideal, right?

So why buy this company’s stock?

Why do it?

Easy answer – the stock price goes higher.

Jassy’s campaign to gut the bloat out including the higher earners of Amazon is ringing alarm bells within the employee ecosystem at Amazon.

Amazon is probably the worst FANG company to search for a job at this point. I would never recommend it to a friend.

The thing about Jeff Bezos, he paid his employees well and promised promotions and lots of other perks.

Jassy is promising the inverse and employee morale has fallen off a cliff then mixed into the fact that workers now go back to the office 5 days per week when the standard at other tech companies is a hybrid 3 days per week in-office requirement.

Tried and Tested Amazon's career paths are drying up faster than the Salt Lake in Utah.

Managers fear replacement by lower-paid people with less experience and half a brain.

Jassy has even coined a new term “horizontal development” which he wants workers to understand as a fake promotion. 

Jassy even codified his philosophy into a published 1,400-word manifesto for change on Amazon’s corporate blog — where investors could read it — and appears to have targeted an entire layer of middle managers.

Jassy is pressuring HR to hire from a pool of recent college graduates to fill positions while finding reasons to remove more senior workers.

Jassy’s cost-cutting has helped increase profits in each of the past six quarters, and the shares have surged 42% in the last 12 months.

Targeting middle managers rather than front-line workers has become more common recently in corporate America because these people tend to have higher salaries and usually don’t contribute directly to a project by coding or negotiating deals.

Like 2024, I do believe Amazon has a great chance at defying the tech malaise by pushing the financials over the line.

The stock will be rewarded by a higher share price.

Let’s be straight, Amazon isn’t reinventing the wheel.

There is no big new shiny thing to hang their hat on.

But much like Tim Cook came in for Steven Jobs, Jassy has come in for Jeff Bezos to operate the hell out of Amazon and search for nickels in the corner of every couch.

Sadly, that is what has come of Silicon Valley and the “most innovative” place in the world.

The truth is that Silicon Valley isn’t innovating like it used to aside from a few people like the guy who figured out how to re-use rockets.

However, Amazon and Silicon Valley don’t need to offer something new when there is little competition besides the Chinese (which are taking over the iPhone and EV business).

Unluckily for China, it’s harder for the Chinese to replace a foreign e-commerce and logistics company while easier to rip off a smartphone.

Buy the dip in Amazon in 2025.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 14:02:092025-02-05 16:14:51Amazon Doesn't Need Workers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2025 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I'd rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.” – Said CEO of Twitter Elon Musk

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Elon.png 306 226 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-02-05 14:00:092025-02-05 16:14:10February 5, 2025 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (GOOGL) February 5, 2025 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 12:09:292025-02-05 12:09:29Trade Alert - (GOOGL) February 5, 2025 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 5, 2025

Jacque's Post

 

(WHERE DOES AUSTRALIA STAND IN RELATION TO THE U.S. AND TRUMP 2.0)

February 5, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

The United States makes more from Australia than Australia makes from the United States in terms of trade and investment. The United States is Australia’s largest economic partner.

 

TRADE

In 2023, Australia exported $12.59 billion to the United States.

The United States has a trade surplus with Australia, with the surplus in goods and services favouring the United States.

The United States is Australia’s third largest trading partner for goods.

The United States is the third most popular tourist destination for Australian residents.

 

INVESTMENT

The United States is Australia’s largest foreign investment destination.

At the end of 2023, the United States had invested $1.17 trillion in Australia.

Below is a list of the top twenty exports to the United States.

 

 

This is by no means everything on the list. 

 

 

The prospect of an international trade war with the U.S. now must be factored into the realm regarding inflation and interest rates in Australia.  The likely downward trajectory of inflation and interest rates has been complicated by Trump’s “bull at a gate” mentality over tariffs on goods from many countries. 

Vowing to stick to his election promise, Trump wants the U.S. to return to a “golden age” of U.S. manufacturing.  China has been loud and clear that countermeasures are coming.  And Canada has already responded by slapping a 25% tariff on a range of U.S. imports.  Certain provinces have indicated that they will no longer buy American goods, so public influence will spin the tables against Trump’s actions.

Mexico, too, has indicated that it will also levy retaliatory duties on American goods.

It was initially understood that Trump’s rationale for threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico was to force these countries to stem the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants across the border into the U.S.  But it seems they have become more than a bargaining chip and look certain to be locked into place to protect America and make it great again, even though it may be a painful journey.

Trump has also drawn attention to his intention to impose tariffs as early as mid-February on imports from all countries of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, copper, oil, and gas into the U.S.

The implications for Australia’s open and export-oriented economy, which greatly benefits from free trade, are two-fold.

Australia risks importing higher inflation. And, secondly, Australian exports to the U.S. risk getting caught up in the trade war.  For instance, blood plasma made by biotech giant, CSL, is among the $1.7 billion a year pharmaceutical exports that are at risk of being hit by Trump’s tariffs if they are imposed on Australia.

The potential hit to costs and sales for Australian companies that do business in the U.S. is significant.  The Albanese government will need to act swiftly to negotiate an agreement with the U.S. to minimize the potential damage from Trump’s trade war.

There are many other effects too.  Disruptions to international trade that slow the world economy would drag on Australia’s 0.3 annual rate of GDP.  Effects could include the acceleration of the economic slowdown in China, which is Australia’s main trading partner.

The looming trade war has consequences not only for inflation and interest rates but also for economic growth.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Trump’s latest expansionist tendency includes wanting to take over the Gaza Strip. He wants to transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” This is on top of wanting Greenland, and the Panama Canal.   

Instability on the geopolitical front could go from amber to red.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 12:00:372025-02-05 12:19:52February 5, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 5, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 5, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THEY’RE NOT MAKING AMERICANS ANYMORE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 09:04:562025-02-05 10:06:31February 5, 2025
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