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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

This Technology Is A Flop

Tech Letter

Meta (META) cutting staff in its virtual reality and augmented reality divisions means uncertainty about future products originating from these places.

The juice has not been worth the squeeze.

I think everyone remembers when Founder Mark Zuckerberg had those goofy metaverse commercials depicting him as an avatar when he debuted the company name change from Facebook to Meta.

Well, the metaverse project isn’t working, which is why he’s firing staff from those projects.

The metaverse division has underdelivered and overpromised.

This lethal cocktail of failure is finally forcing management to cut off the fat from its body.

VR and AR are now losing billions of dollars per year, and as the business environment turns more pragmatic, these experimental projects are thrown out for good. 

META said its Reality Labs unit recorded an operating loss of $4.97 billion while generating $1.1 billion in sales.

A nice quarterly performance of minus 3 billion dollars has forced management to make some tough decisions.

Now, the AR and VR divisions will be gutted.

Reality Labs is Meta’s unit that makes the Quest family of virtual-reality headsets and Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg kick-started his company’s VR endeavors in 2014 when it acquired the startup Oculus for $2 billion. Since then, Zuckerberg has characterized VR and AR as central to his plans to develop the futuristic digital world known as the metaverse, which he has said represents the next major computing platform.

Reality Labs has piled up an operating loss of more than $60 billion since 2020.

The losses cannot just be swept under the carpet.

Meta last week said it would invest between $60 billion and $65 billion in 2025 capital expenditures to expand its computing infrastructure related to artificial intelligence.

Even this AI infrastructure build-out is questionable at this point, as other big tech firms pull back from this type of investment.

Meta released its latest VR headset, the $299 Quest 3S, during its September Connect event and pitched the device as a way for people to watch movies, play games, and work out in VR.

Microsoft (MSFT) has lost at least $5 billion on HoloLens since the launch of the first model in 2016.

The Microsoft HoloLens is a mixed reality headset that allows users to overlay digital information onto the real world, creating a blended experience of physical and digital environments.

Microsoft’s withdrawal from the market for augmented and virtual reality hardware leaves competitors such as Apple and Meta with a less crowded field on which to compete.

Apple (AAPL) is another company that has bet on AR and VR.

In short, VR and AR have been money pits that suck up investment dollars, but deliver nothing in terms of profit.

Whether it is Meta, Apple, or Microsoft, they have all struck out at this technology and will need to embrace the reality that consumers don’t want Google-type technology on their face to interact with a screen.

AR and VR divisions should be buried in the graveyard of attempted technology that people aren’t interested in.

Back to the drawing board…

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-25 14:02:292025-04-25 15:44:20This Technology Is A Flop
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 25, 2025

Jacque's Post

 

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S APRIL 16, 2025, WEBINAR)

 

April 18, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

TITLE – The Special Chaos Issue

 

PERFORMANCE

April +0.95 MTD

2025 year to date = +14.78%

Since inception = +766.33%

One year return = 75.65%

Average annualised return = 50.28%

 

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Risk On

(COST) 4/$840-$850 call spread

(TSLA) 4/$160-$170 put spread

(NFLX) 4/$800-$810 call spread

(NVDA) 4/$70- $75 call spread

 

Risk Off

(MSTR) 4/$340-$350 put spread

(All expired in profit this week)

 

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Trump announced worst-case scenario tariffs, tanking stocks and crypto, triggering the biggest tax increase in 85 years.

Trump then cracks, announcing a 90-day delay in trade tariffs forced by the imminent collapse of global financial markets, with possible exceptions for smartphones, computers, and chips.

All asset classes are dumped, presaging global economic crisis.

Bonds have worst week in 25 years, spiking yields by 60 basis points to 4.5%

Both inflation and unemployment are about to take off like a rocket.

Recession call is still on.

US Dollar has been pummelled.

Oil crashes.

 

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – TURMOIL

Chinese tariffs raised to 145% this evening in a US retaliation to the retaliation.  China counters with 125%

Unemployment rises to 4.2%, a multi-year high – the March Nonfarm Payroll Report.

Nonfarm payrolls in March increased by 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February.

U.S. inflation expectations hit a 44-year high.

Consumer Price Index falls to 2.4% in March, a big drop from 2.8%.

Canadian Visitors fall 32%, in line with other forecasts of a collapse in international travel.

NFIB Business Optimism Index plunges.

JP Morgan raises recession risk to 79%

 

STOCKS – PANIC!

All Capital gains of the last 13 months were wiped out at market lows.

Chaos reigns supreme, with the (SPX) dropping 20% at the lows.

Volatility hits 16 16-year high at 62.

Hedge funds are still dumping technology stocks, as they still command big premiums to the main market.

Tech leads the downturn on every selloff.

All long-term technical indicators have rolled over, meaning that the bear market could continue until summer at the earliest and next year at the latest.

Delta Airlines collapses 50% on recession expectations and foreign travel fall off, pulls forward guidance.

2025 will be a down year for stocks.

Visa (V) buy any dips

Banks are good buys – PE multiples are in low teens.

 

BONDS – DEFAULT RISK

The Financial Crisis trade is still on, with 10-year US Treasury bonds hitting 4.6% yields.

Bonds suffer their worst sell-off in 25 years.

Foreign investors panic-sell, worried about US default or capital controls.

Collapse of the US dollar is pouring gasoline on the fire.

If countries can’t run trade surpluses with the US anymore, they don’t need to buy US bonds or dollars.

Bond Credit Quality is crashing as recessions lead to more defaults.

Junk bonds have fallen by $6.00 in a month, a massive move for this market, no doubt partially due to margin calls across all asset classes.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and REITS

 

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – Dead Dumping

Shrinking international trade brings a shrinking demand for the US dollar.

US dollar declines as a reserve currency in the last quarter of 2024, while the percentage of actual dollars held as reserve ticked up, IMF data showed on Monday.

The Trump economy is forcing investors to flee all US assets, including stocks and currency.

Massive cash flight is running away from the US and into Europe and China.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

 

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – CRASH!

Oil crashes down an amazing $13, or down 18% in a week, from $72 to $59.

High dividend-paying (XOM) has collapsed by 18%.

It is the sharpest fall in Texas tea prices since the 1919 Gulf War.

Recession fears are running rampant, and no one wants to pay for storage until a recovery, which may be years off.

Sell all energy rallies.

A global recession is looming large.

Avoid all energy plays like the plague.

 

PRECIOUS METALS – MELT UP

Gold hits a new all-time high, as the only flight to safety asset that is really working.  My target is $5,000.

Gold sees first $100 up day in history.

Q1 gold inflows hit three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold ETF’s saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tonnes worth $21.1 billion in the first quarter.

Central bank buying and Chinese savings demand continues unabated with China devaluing its currency.

Keep buying all (GLD) metal dips.

 

REAL ESTATE – GREEN SHOOTS SQUASHED

Existing home prices may rise due to the tariffs, as their replacement cost has just shot up enormously.

Lumber comes from Canada, and drywall and labour come from Mexico. A recession will also drive interest rates lower.

Mortgage rates rising back to 7.1% demolish any recovery.

Pending Home Sales rise, based on signed contracts. Pending home sales decreased 3.6% from a year earlier.

Homebuilder sentiment craters to a seven-month low in March as tariffs on imported materials raised construction costs.

 

TRADE SHEET – THE RECESSION TRADE

Stocks – sell rallies

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $50

Real Estate – stand aside

 

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, April 30, 2025

From Incline Village, NV

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-25 12:00:162025-04-25 12:16:09April 25, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 25, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 25, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE UNITED STATES OF DEBT)
(TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-25 09:04:002025-04-25 15:00:01April 25, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (MSTR) April 24, 2025 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 15:21:082025-04-24 15:21:08Trade Alert - (MSTR) April 24, 2025 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NFLX) April 24, 2025 - SELL - TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 15:12:302025-04-24 15:12:30Trade Alert - (NFLX) April 24, 2025 - SELL - TAKE PROFITS
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (TSLA) April 24, 2025 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 13:56:502025-04-24 13:56:50Trade Alert - (TSLA) April 24, 2025 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 24, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 24, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(DIVIDEND HUNTING IN BEAR COUNTRY)

(BMY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 12:02:182025-04-24 13:03:33April 24, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Dividend Hunting In Bear Country

Biotech Letter

One stock in the pharmaceutical sector has been calling to me lately like a siren song amid market turbulence.

I'm talking about Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), which has taken a beating in the March-April selloff but is dangling a forward estimated 5% dividend yield while generating a whopping 14% annual free cash flow — tops among the largest drug names.

I've been watching this one since January, when it first dipped below $52. Like a patient fisherman, I've been waiting for just the right moment to cast my line. That moment appears to be now, as BMY slides toward the $50 mark amid broader market jitters and sector rotation. It’s remarkable how often Wall Street throws the proverbial baby out with the bathwater during these periodic fits of selling.

The beauty of BMY is not just valuation. It’s historically proven itself as a financial bomb shelter — outperforming the S&P 500 in four major recessions since 1990.

During the 2020 pandemic, it returned 36% vs. the S&P’s 26%. In the Great Recession, it gained 13% while the broader market fell 16%.

During the 1990 Persian Gulf War recession, it delivered a jaw-dropping 76%.

And here’s one more kicker: BMY’s current 14% free cash flow yield is nearly 10% higher than equivalent cash investment yields — among the best “relative yields” it’s posted in 35 years.

On top of that, its 5%+ dividend towers over the S&P’s 1.3% and Big Pharma’s 3.65% median.

This is a rare setup where both the cash yield and the ability to sustain it align — a combination that’s very hard to beat in a defensive play.

Of course, no stock is bulletproof. BMY will need to navigate patent cliffs and increased regulatory scrutiny on drug pricing.

Wall Street is also pricing in little to no growth in the near term — and that’s probably fair. But the current setup suggests BMY could still outperform, especially if the S&P enters a decline in 2025.

This defensive mindset is why Warren Buffett and other veterans have been moving to abnormally extreme levels of cash since 2024. They're battening down the hatches while the financial seas are still relatively calm.

And speaking of smart investors, I had lunch last week at Tadich Grill with a hedge fund manager I’ve known for decades. When I mentioned I was looking for defensive plays, he immediately brought up BMY.

“What’s rare these days,” he said, “is a company with both a high dividend and the cash flow to actually back it up.” He then showed me his firm’s spreadsheets — stress-tested across recession scenarios back to Nixon — and BMY held firm.

Having run similar models myself (if not quite as colour-coded), I nodded in agreement.

At the current ~$50 share price, BMY’s free cash flow yield stands near 14%. That’s nearly 10% better than risk-free Treasury rates and more than double the Big Pharma peer group median of 6.15%.

So what could go wrong? A steeper summer selloff. Or an aggressive federal move to mandate drug pricing — a risk that’s always on the table, but rarely moves quickly. Supply chain issues, especially for ingredients sourced from China, are also worth watching.

That said, BMY has manufacturing facilities globally, and 71% of its revenue comes from the US. That gives it some insulation if trade tensions flare.

But here’s the thing: those risks hit all major pharma companies. BMY starts from a stronger base: better cash flow, better history, better defensive positioning.

My view? BMY is worth owning for its super-sized dividend and battle-tested resilience. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 12:00:562025-04-24 13:02:27Dividend Hunting In Bear Country
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (UBER) April 23, 2024 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 10:10:232025-04-24 10:10:23Trade Alert - (UBER) April 23, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 24, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 24, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(TESTIMONIAL),
(MY FAVORITE PASSIVE/AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO)
(ROM), (UYG), (UCC), (DIG), (BIB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-04-24 09:06:032025-04-24 11:11:17April 24, 2025
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