June 2025 Archive - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 6, 2025

Jacque's Post

(THE ERA OF FRACTURED AND COMMODIFIED ATTENTION)

June 6, 2025

Hello everyone

OUR FULL ATTENTION IS BEING FRACTURED AND THEN COMMODIFIED TO REGAIN IT

The information age has been a good thing.

Would you agree?

We now have access to all sorts of information that once were unavailable to the masses.

And that information is filling our email inbox, our social media, and every other media you can think of.

“Experts” are constantly telling/advising us what to eat, how much to eat, when to eat, or not to eat.

We are also told what exercise to do or not to do depending on our age.

And we are now deep in the age of spirituality, mindset, meditation, and consciousness awareness.

We are urged to reawaken ourselves, meditate, and shut out the noise, understand our energy and how it and the mind work.

Add to that the daily news we get – usually all bad – that we take in, if we choose to watch or listen or read the news.

And then on top of that, we live our lives with constant reminders of things to get done, don’t forget post-it notes or notes in the iPhone, which are constantly pinging – all of this becomes a juggling act of sorts.

To say we are overloaded with information would be an understatement.

I start my morning with a glass of water and a cup of tea. I go outside, feed the birds, enjoy the sunshine, and gaze over the mountains and the ocean in the distance. It clears my head and empties out the noise and allows me to focus on my priorities.

I think many of us have lost the ability to really pay attention. We are being pulled in so many directions all at once that many of us walk around in a fog, unable to discern what is important and what is not important. It seems our iPhone has taken away our control over our lives.

There is a coercion that is drawing us towards this noise. Our constant need to check our iPhones is draining our ability to really be present here and now, and to really be ourselves. We are what we notice, and we are noticing less due to the myriad bits of pings, media shots, and psychological pull of 24-hour info technology.

Research tells us that we are whittling away how long we can focus. In 2003, before smartphones were really on the scene, the average time a person spent on any one computer-related task before switching screens was two and a half minutes. Between 2016 and 2020, that interval fell to 47 seconds. How low can it go?

The aimless motion of scrolling. It’s mind-less, not mind-full.

With art reflecting our culture, we could eventually see pictures of mist representative of people’s mind space, or our eyes covered with tiny dots to show the number of times we have checked our iPhone during the day.

As William James put it in 1890: “My experience is what I agree to attend to. Only those items which I notice shape my mind – without selective interest, experience is an utter chaos.”

How many of you have checked your emails when sitting at the traffic lights? I have seen Uber drivers do this when I have been travelling with them.

Those emails can wait.

A Backlash May be Starting

Many people are now starting to bristle against the unwanted impositions of the pings, rings, notices, newsfeeds, and so on of 21^st century technology.

We are now seeing apps commodifying our need for calm. Sidekick, Stay Focused, and Freedom, among others, have popped up.

Do you really need an app to detach yourself from the noise?

How about going for a walk or a bike ride and leaving your iPhone at home? (If you must take it with you, turn it off.)

Playing tennis, swimming, surfing, and golf takes you away from technology. You can’t scroll while swimming or playing tennis – please correct me if I’m wrong here.

What about hobbies like gardening, painting, or handicrafts like sewing, knitting, or tapestry? These take you into a world where you can lose track of time and engage completely with the present and the action you are doing.

Time slips away when I’m in the garden. It is a similar story when I’m doing handicrafts.

And what about just reading a book?

You don’t need an app to calm your mind. Just go outside and leave tech at home. It can all wait.

Let’s bring our attention back to the market, just before I close for the weekend break.

As I said in the Monday newsletter, we are in a market seemingly controlled by a handful of people.

The bromance between Musk and Trump seems to have cooled markedly. The to and fro of comments between these two personalities has given the market indigestion, and Tesla a case of the glums. Choppiness and sharp moves have become the norm lately. And we could continue to see volatile moves. It’s the market we have now, so we just must deal with it.

This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. This is how the price action could play out. No guarantees. However, as I’ve shown on the monthly chart below, I do expect we may see another down move, just when everybody gets comfortable and complacent from seeing the market moving to the upside. As we move towards the end of the year, we should get a clearer picture.

Monthly S&P500 chart

QI CORNER

Pieter Borsje (Founder of Eona/AML Specialist)

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

Trade Alert – (TXN) June 6, 2025 – TAKE PROFITS – SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

June 6, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
June 6, 2025
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE RIGHT NOW)

PLEASE Sign Up for My Free Text Alert Service Now!

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

A few years ago, my customer support office spent the entire day taking calls from readers who missed my Trade Alert to buy the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) March 2019 $177-$180 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread at $2.40 or best. A few days later, it delivered a $4,000 profit.

The bond market completely fell apart afterwards, taking the spread up from $2.40 to $2.70 within minutes.

And I should warn you, this kind of instant blowout result is not unusual at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, as long-time followers of my service will tell you.

Having Trade Alerts that move so fast into the money is a good problem to have.

Subscribers to the Text Alert Service received messages on their cell phones within seconds worldwide, and thus were able to act immediately on my perfectly timed Trade Alerts.

Every time I see this happen, I am amazed that I have lived this long to see this technology develop. It’s all really great…. when it works.

This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself and by your local server. And guess what? During major market crashes, the entire internet slows down. Really!

Because our email application, AWeber Solutions, is unable to invest fast enough to keep up with the growth of its own business, we are encountering more frequent delays in our emails (see messages below).

To sign up for the Trade Alert Service, please email Filomena directly at support@madhedgefundtrader.com with your mobile number, and she will set you up.

Time is of the essence in these volatile markets. Individual traders need to grab every advantage they can. This is an important one.

Good luck and good trading.

To sign up for the Trade Alert Service, please email Filomena directly at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. She will set you up.

Time is of the essence in these volatile markets. Individual traders need to grab every advantage they can. This is an important one.

Good luck and good trading.

Hook Me Up to John Thomas

June 6, 2025 – Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“In the next recession, the US will be the worst-performing stock market in the world. We won’t see new highs again in my lifetime,” said Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach.

Trade Alert – (TSLA) June 5, 2025 – BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

Trade Alert – (MSTR) June 5, 2025 – TAKE PROFITS – SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

Trade Alert – (TSLA) June 5, 2025 – TAKE PROFITS – SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

June 5, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 5, 2025
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHEN SKYNET FINALLY GETS A MEDICAL LICENSE)

(ISRG), (MDT), (SYK)

When Skynet Finally Gets A Medical License

Biotech Letter

The first robotic surgery took place in 1985, when a clunky PUMA 560 robot assisted in a neurosurgical biopsy. It was primitive, sure, but revolutionary. Fast forward to today, and we’ve traded the clunky for the uncanny.

This is where Intuitive Surgical’s (ISRG) da Vinci 5 comes in. This is a robotic surgeon so advanced it makes Roombas and chess bots look like wind-up toys. Basically, it’s a precision-guided, AI-enhanced surgical overlord disguised as a helpful assistant.

And while the sticker price on the stock may have you reaching for a defibrillator — nearly 80 times earnings — there’s a method to the market’s madness.

Intuitive Surgical has played a long game of Monopoly in the OR. Its da Vinci system, first launched at the turn of the millennium, now boasts more than 8,000 systems globally.

But it’s the latest iteration, da Vinci 5, that earns a double-take.

With FDA clearance fresh in hand, the new platform doesn’t just make surgery better — it fundamentally redefines what surgical precision means.

Think ten thousand times more computing power than its predecessor, real-time analytics, Force Feedback technology that lets surgeons feel tissue tension, and a modular design that makes future upgrades feel like plugging in a new app instead of installing a new car engine.

If you’re wondering why Intuitive plows 14% of revenue back into R&D, here’s your answer. They’re not just trying to stay ahead; they’re building a platform that becomes harder to leave with each new feature. That is, the old razor-and-blade model has gotten an AI facelift.

Every da Vinci system generates recurring revenue through instruments, services, and accessories.

In 2024, recurring revenue hit 84% of total sales, and with each surgical procedure, the network effect compounds. It’s surgical Stockholm syndrome, and the hospitals are loving it.

Now let’s talk about the elephant in the ER: valuation.

Sure, the 79x P/E and 3.4 PEG make it look like a biotech startup on espresso shots. But unlike many hopefuls with dreams of FDA fairy dust, Intuitive is already cashing checks and pulling a 67% gross margin with a rock-solid balance sheet.

Its competitors? Medtronic (MDT) is still fiddling with prototypes, and Stryker’s (SYK) robotic efforts are promising but more me-too than moonshot.

Nobody else has the data, the systems, and the surgeon trust all rolled into one.

The real kicker is the AI piece. That ten-thousand-fold boost in computing power isn’t just for bragging rights. It enables real-time guidance, tissue recognition, predictive analytics, and surgeon training in simulated environments.

Imagine a future where a junior surgeon in São Paulo is trained by a system that’s learned from a million procedures. That’s not wishful thinking. That’s Intuitive’s actual product roadmap. And it unlocks a new layer of revenue — call it SaaS for scalpel-slingers.

Still, even the most gifted scalpel wielder needs to know where not to cut.

Risks loom. Hospitals, always a bit skittish with capital spending, could slow down purchases during economic downturns. New CEO on deck? That’s a succession test we’ll be watching.

Regulatory risk, competitive advances, or even a botched surgery gone viral could dent sentiment. And yet, Intuitive has danced through risk minefields before and emerged with more market share than ever.

Is it worth the premium? If you believe we’re headed toward an AI-powered, data-driven, minimally invasive surgical future, then yes.

This isn’t just a hardware company. It’s building the Apple iOS of surgery, and once you’re in the ecosystem, there’s no going back.

Hospitals don’t switch out surgical systems like they do paper towel vendors. The switching costs are high, the training steep, and the surgeon preference deeply entrenched.

The market clearly agrees. At $550 a share, you’re not picking this up in the bargain bin.

But a discounted cash flow analysis, even with conservative inputs, suggests a fair value closer to $630. That’s not just hopium. That’s the math of a company with sticky revenues, a global runway, and a defensible moat no one has yet breached.

For those with a long-term lens and a tolerance for a little altitude in their valuations, Intuitive Surgical remains a compelling story.

The AI angle is only just beginning to bear fruit, and with da Vinci 5 setting the stage for the next generation of surgical platforms, the next decade looks as precise and promising as its robotic incisions.

Who knew the rise of the machines would start with better bedside manner?