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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 30, 2025 – Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“It’s not a faith in technology. It’s faith in people.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/steve-jobs-e1631634374388.png 328 350 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-07-30 14:00:062025-07-30 23:35:42July 30, 2025 – Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 30, 2025

Jacque's Post

 

(THE EXCESS PHASE IN THE MARKET REVEALS THE NATURAL HUMAN INSTINCT OF GREED)

 

July 30, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Welcome to the period of frenzy in the markets. 

If you didn’t already know it, we are in the Excess Phase of the market.  This phase can last longer than most anticipate, and it is harder to nail down an exact target that the market will reach.  This is the phase where you see people borrowing funds to invest, leveraging themselves over and above what they rationally should, and the thinking is that the market is a buy on every dip, until they find that it isn’t.

This Excess Phase is what you saw when people were going crazy in the Dot Com era, buying up everything associated with tech in the few years before the year 2000, and then market structure changed.  Retail investors were booted out of the market, without even collecting some small change on the way down the elevator.

We saw a similar story in 2008.  Everyone was leveraged up the eyeballs; the Excess Phase sucked everyone in and then spat them out in a brutal manner as the market collapsed, and retail investors were wiped out.

Many sophisticated investors and institutions are already out of the market, or they are scaling out slowly as this market keeps going up.  Retailers are the investors who are piling in.  And these retail investors are comprised of a whole new generation of market participants, who are not fully fledged in market dynamics and how market structure works.  But they will find out quickly enough.

My research tells me that we will have a fierce pullback in the markets sometime in 2026.  We could drop 30% – 50% or so.  So, if the market gets to around S&P500 7000, don’t be surprised if we drop to a zone around the low 5000’s or in the mid to high 4000’s. 

The final three years of the 2020’s could be very tough economically.  Many businesses could shut up shop and go bust, unemployment could rise, inflation could rise, and life generally could get quite challenging for many people.

We are nearly 100 years from the 1929 Depression.  The market works in cycles, so it is important to recognize this 100-year mark and understand that we could enter a “silent” Depression/Recession over the next few years.  In other words, just because it is not called out as the “D” or “R” word, it doesn’t mean that times are easy, and a large proportion of the population are not struggling.

 

AUSTRALIAN SOCIAL MEDIA POLICIES FOR UNDER 16’s

The Australian government is prepared to ruffle the feathers of Big Tech like Google in order to install protective measures for young people.  From December 10 this year, social media platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, WeChat, and TikTok will be banned for users under 16.   How they are going to police this is not clear, but Tech giants, like Google, are preparing to sue.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-30 12:00:552025-07-30 12:50:48July 30, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 29, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 29, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE GENE EDITING TOLLBOOTH)

(VRTX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-29 12:02:592025-07-29 16:16:18July 29, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Gene Editing Tollbooth

Biotech Letter

Did you know that the first successful gene therapy was approved by the FDA just 33 years ago, back in 1990?

While most of us were arguing about whether compact discs would replace cassette tapes, some wild-eyed scientists were literally rewriting human DNA. Talk about thinking ahead.

Fast forward to today, and we’ve got Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) turning what seemed like pure fantasy into a $125 billion market cap reality.

Sometimes I wonder if those 1990 pioneers are sitting somewhere with a knowing smile, watching their “impossible” science create generational wealth.

Now, here’s the thing about Vertex that keeps me coming back like a moth to a particularly profitable flame.

This isn’t your garden-variety biotech gamble where you’re crossing your fingers and hoping some experimental drug doesn’t kill lab mice. No, sir, Vertex has built themselves what I like to call the “Warren Buffett Special” of pharmaceutical franchises with their cystic fibrosis treatments.

We’re talking about $2.77 billion in quarterly revenue as of Q1 2025, up 3% year-over-year, which might not sound like fireworks until you realize this cash machine has patent protection through 2037.

That’s the kind of predictable income stream that makes retirement planners weep with joy.

The company is guiding toward $11.85 to $12 billion for full-year 2025 revenue, representing about 8% growth at the midpoint.

Sure, 8% won’t get you invited to any Silicon Valley dinner parties, but when you’re dealing with life-or-death medications for a clearly defined patient population, steady and reliable beats flashy and unpredictable every single time.

It’s like owning a toll road, except instead of collecting quarters from commuters, you’re collecting billions from people who literally can’t live without your product.

But here’s where things get deliciously interesting, and why I think most investors are missing the real story.

While everyone’s busy calculating CF revenue growth rates, Vertex has been quietly assembling what could be the medical equivalent of the Manhattan Project. Their gene editing therapy, called Casgev, just posted some absolutely bonkers long-term data that honestly makes me question whether we’re witnessing the dawn of a new era in human health.

Get this: 95.6% of sickle cell disease patients were completely free from painful crises for at least 12 months after treatment.

Now, if you’ve never experienced or watched someone go through a sickle cell crisis, imagine the worst pain you’ve ever felt, multiply it by 10, and then imagine living with the constant fear that it could happen again any day.

These folks typically end up in emergency rooms multiple times per year, racking up medical bills faster than a teenager with a new credit card. Casgevy essentially takes that nightmare and erases it…potentially forever.

Here’s the part that makes my inner accountant both excited and slightly nauseous: the treatment costs over $2 million per patient. That’s right, two million with six zeros.

It sounds absolutely insane until you realize that the average sickle cell patient with recurrent crises costs the healthcare system about $67,000 annually.

Simple math tells us that’s roughly 30 years of medical expenses paid upfront for what appears to be a permanent cure.

Vertex expects about $85 million in gene therapy revenue for 2025, which sounds modest until you consider they’re essentially building the assembly line for the future of medicine.

Their CEO recently mentioned having about 90 patients who’ve started cell collection, with potentially 270 more in the pipeline. At $2 million a pop, even modest adoption rates start looking like serious money.

What really gets my blood pumping, though, is the pipeline behind the pipeline.

Their Type 1 diabetes therapy, zimislecel, showed that 10 out of 12 patients ditched their daily insulin shots entirely by month 12, with an average 92% reduction in insulin requirements.

Consider that there are roughly 1.25 million Americans with Type 1 diabetes, and suddenly, we’re not talking about niche markets anymore. We’re talking about potentially obsoleting an entire category of chronic disease management.

The company’s sitting pretty financially too, with strong cash reserves, minimal debt, and the kind of free cash flow that funds continued moonshots.

Their recent $4.9 billion acquisition of Alpine Immune Sciences shows they’re not content to rest on their CF laurels but are actively hunting for the next breakthrough.

But the real question isn’t whether Vertex can keep printing money from their existing franchise. It’s whether they can pull off the ultimate corporate transformation from a one-trick pony into a gene therapy juggernaut.

Given their track record of turning Nobel Prize-winning science into blockbuster businesses, combined with their financial firepower and expanding pipeline, I’d say the odds are pretty favorable. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-29 12:00:472025-07-29 16:16:27The Gene Editing Tollbooth
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 29, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 29, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(I HAVE A NEW OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-29 09:04:082025-07-29 10:09:18July 29, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

I Have a New Opening for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service 

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

Our latest performance run for the ages has delivered unintended consequences once again.

I recently visited with a long-standing concierge member who had a confession to make. When I rang the fire alarm in February that a major stock market crash was coming, he made a phone call. What was my downside target? I responded that the S&P 500 could plunge 20% to $4,800.

He promptly went out and bought the (SPY) $480 puts and was very relaxed when the Dow started dropping 2,000 points a day. Then he woke up one morning and the value of his trading account had rocketed from $50,000 to $1 million in six weeks.

Then he thought “That’s enough for me” and took profits on the position right at the April 8 bottom. As a result, he never has to work or trade again. No trading means no need for a Mad Hedge Concierge membership.

I seem to have a recurring problem.

People make so much money from my concierge service that they retire early, and I never hear from them again.

No surprise with my trailing one-year performance now at an eye-popping +101.88% over the last 12 months.

That means I have a new opening for the Mad Hedge Concierge Service. I limit the service to only ten clients at any one time, and entry is by application only.

The goal is to provide high-net-worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.

It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support its own in-house global strategist full-time.

The service includes the following:

1) Emergency access to John Thomas 24/7 through his personal cell phone number so he can act as your investment 911.

2) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.

3) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.

4) Personal meetings with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions.

5) Early releases of strategy letters and urgent trading information.

6) More detailed and early recommendations on LEAPS, or two-year call options on the best high-growth names.

7) Access to a dedicated Concierge website listing complete All LEAPS investment portfolios.

The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $12,000 a year.

To best take advantage of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, you should possess the following:

1) Be an existing subscriber to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader who is already well aware of our strengths and limitations.

2) Have a liquid net worth of over $250,000.

3) Possess a degree of knowledge and sophistication of financial markets. This is NOT for beginners.

To subscribe to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, please email Filomena at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put “Concierge Candidate” in the subject line.

I look forward to hearing from you.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/John-thomas-sitting-on-rock.png 818 1092 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-29 09:02:592025-07-29 10:08:51I Have a New Opening for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service 
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 29, 2025 – Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Life can be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Backward-Forward-Sign-e1488330455900.jpg 196 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-07-29 09:00:372025-07-29 10:08:24July 29, 2025 – Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 28, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 28, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(E.U. TRADE DEAL A GREEN LIGHT FOR AMERICAN TECH STOCKS)
(NVDA), (INTC), (AMD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-28 14:04:422025-07-28 14:41:48July 28, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

E.U. Trade Deal A Green Light For American Tech Stocks

Tech Letter

EU investments in U.S. infrastructure, particularly in AI, semiconductors is bullish for the American tech sector.

American tech companies ($COMPQ) cleaned up in this lopsided trade deal between Europe and the U.S.

16 years ago, the EU and US economies were neck and neck, and the EU continues its suicide mission into oblivion.

There has rarely been a time where Europe has been so uncompetitive economically, and the U.S. administration sniffed this one out like a bomb squad German Shepherd at the airport.

Today, the US economy is 50% larger than the entire EU combined, and that number will accelerate higher in the future.

In the trade deal, there was never any moment where US tech stocks were threatened.

Also, the 0% on American products exported to the E.U. is a nice touch for US tech companies that look at the European Union as a fertile ground because of zero competition.   

This deal is strongly bullish for U.S. tech stocks and the overall U.S. stock market due to its economic stimulus, sector-specific benefits for technology, enhanced market sentiment, and geopolitical stabilization.

The trade deal injects significant capital into the U.S. economy, acting as a powerful stimulus. The $600 billion EU investment in U.S. infrastructure, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and clean energy, directly supports industries critical to tech giants like Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.

Remember that much of the “low hanging fruit” is in the AI infrastructure space, developing new data centers to accommodate AI, and this deal hits at the heart of that.

This investment is likely to fund data centers, chip manufacturing facilities, and renewable energy projects, creating demand for tech products and services. For instance, expanded AI infrastructure benefits cloud providers like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, which rely on data centers to power AI and computing services.

These investments could fund new fabrication plants or research hubs, enhancing U.S. tech competitiveness. Similarly, cloud computing giants—Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—stand to gain from increased demand for AI-driven services, as European firms and governments invest in digital transformation.

Additionally, the energy component of the deal ensures stable, affordable power for tech infrastructure – Data centers, critical for AI, cloud computing, and blockchain technologies, require consistent energy supplies.

The $750 billion in EU energy purchases, particularly LNG, stabilizes U.S. energy markets, reducing volatility in operational costs for tech firms. This stability is bullish for stocks like Amazon and Google, which are scaling cloud operations.

Tech giants with significant European revenues—such as Apple (20% of sales from Europe) and Meta (reliant on EU advertising)—benefit from reduced trade tensions, which could have otherwise led to retaliatory EU regulations or tariffs on U.S. services.

The deal also enhances U.S. tech’s global competitiveness. By securing EU investment in AI and semiconductors, the U.S. strengthens its lead over competitors like China in critical technologies.

Although Europe is just one part of American tech revenue, this will do a lot to stabilize global trade in a year where it’s been a rollercoaster.

Wait for earnings season and buy any dips on rock-solid American tech companies.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-28 14:02:412025-07-28 14:41:40E.U. Trade Deal A Green Light For American Tech Stocks
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 28, 2025 – Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” – Said Steve Jobs

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Steve-Jobs-quote-of-the-day-image-e1522959296688.jpg 250 250 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-07-28 14:00:102025-07-28 14:41:28July 28, 2025 – Quote of the Day
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