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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Industry on the Ropes

Bitcoin Letter

Crypto and Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon is no longer on the run.

Yes, that’s right – he’s a convict.

The Interpol red list that once alerted 195 countries to his status as a wanted fugitive has been retired, replaced by a federal prison number. We now know that his desperate transfer of 33,131 Bitcoins right after being added to that list was the final act of a man who knew the walls were closing in.

Kwon was the golden boy for stablecoins for quite some time as the native South Korean’s brash attitude led him to billions in wealth.

His “fake it ‘til you make it” attitude got him into deep water, and the quickly escalating investigations have now concluded with a definitive thud.

Why?

His brainchild, Terra’s UST stablecoin, lost its parity to the dollar in May 2022 in a $70 billion collapse, and today is nothing more than a digital tombstone.

Kwon and Terraform Labs fled South Korea for Singapore ahead of Terra’s meltdown, and then he fled Singapore, sparking a global manhunt that ended in Montenegro.

South Korean authorities finally got their answers regarding the violations of capital markets law that resulted in a slew of local suicides by investors who lost everything.

Investigators also confirmed what many suspected: his company misled investors in labeling UST as a stablecoin.

The courts have ruled that his stablecoin achieved the definition of a Ponzi scheme.

It feels like a lifetime ago when Terraform Labs successfully rallied an audience of fans that called themselves the “Lunatics,” praising Kwon as the project’s outspoken hero, as the price of its LUNA token rallied.

Kwon’s unique case set off US regulators with the intent of regulating stablecoins more rigidly, a goal that was realized with the passage of the GENIUS Act last year.

The South Korean sullied the stablecoin industry, and while the manhunt is over, the reputational stain remains.

U.S. lawmakers successfully passed the bill that introduced a ban on UST-like algorithmic stablecoins, safeguarding other decentralized dollar alternatives like MakerDAO’s DAI by forcing them to adhere to strict backing requirements.

Cryptocurrencies have been littered with non-stop streaming of negative headlines over the last few years.

Bitcoin reaching $65,000 back then wasn’t in fact a celebration, but the calm before the storm, before a myriad of structural problems were revealed as the price of Bitcoin collapsed.

Kwon's incarceration has stopped his attempt at fixing LUNA, and the price levels remain a fraction of what they were before the collapse.

The conclusion of this international police case has heaped more fuel on the fire for incremental investors, signaling them to stay away from speculative cryptocurrencies, and rightly so.

Kwon is now serving a 15-year sentence, though legal experts believe he may still face additional time in his native homeland of South Korea.

Financial fraud and running a Ponzi scheme are serious matters in South Korea, which is infamous as a place where Korean oligarchs regularly flout the law, but Kwon was not spared.

Delaying the inevitable stirred up even more unrest for crypto, but at least one of its big-time CEOs can no longer evade the law.

The longer he hid internationally, the longer the damage to the reputation of crypto lasted.

The problem I have is that even with justice served, the lack of cash flow dispensing from these assets keeps them in a gray area of whether they are sustainable or not.

Even more worrisome, the strict regulations born from Kwon’s actions have wiped out the wild-west infrastructure that once fueled the industry's growth.

It caused manhunts for crypto CEOs and the bankruptcy of the masses.

These events remain highly bearish for the cryptocurrency industry's legacy, and I advise readers to continue heading for higher water.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-02-13 13:06:002026-02-17 12:11:34An Industry on the Ropes
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Where Does the Utility Come From

Bitcoin Letter

Crypto insider Mike Novogratz has long maintained an upbeat tone, even as crypto remains one of the most frustrating asset classes of the last few years.

His words are mostly silver linings and an optimistic view of the future.

His argument for structural appreciation in Bitcoin centers on the premise that the next phase must differ from historical cryptocurrency rallies in terms of story and utility.

Compared to previous cycles, the thesis is that any future Bitcoin rally will be more focused on utility and less on the story.

An asset can only go so far based on the fear of missing out hype.

The structural issue remains the lack of buyers, and it is no surprise.

Every liquidity event serves as a great exit point for holders to dump more coins.

In my analysis over the years, I chronicle how structural shifts make it less attractive for incremental investors to bite at crypto.

The data backs me up as new buyers have largely exited this speculative industry and sought assets that pay an annuity-like premium.

According to Novogratz, the 2017 era was mostly about the story of people not trusting the government and wanting more privacy and decentralization.

The blockchain narrative has stagnated, and few institutions have integrated the technology into daily tasks.

I do not see where the utility comes from.

The era when speculative investors bought digital real estate in the metaverse in hopes of accruing rental digital revenue defies belief.

I do not see the utility there either.

It is all good to use buzz words like scalable and user-friendly, yet I see no actual development.

I do not believe crypto is the inherent successor to fiat either, and I do believe that, at best, it acts as a nice compliment, and that is if miracle after miracle happens from here on out.

With governments regulating the sector heavily, its value proposition diminishes greatly.

Novogratz needs to stop pushing the inevitable theme like a real estate agent advising buyers to buy the most expensive mansion at the top of the market.

Hilariously enough, one of the knocks on crypto was the elevated volatility, which has dampened significantly.

Why?

The lack of volatility stems from the lack of new buyers and sellers. There are still owners who have not sold and are holding until infinity, so the price does not get pushed down further, but investors are so turned off by the charlatans and dangers in the industry that they would rather put their money in something more real.

Crypto executives need to stop pushing the Bitcoin to $1 million theme, as every headwind imaginable crushes the price of crypto.

Even worse, the industry is still metabolizing billions of dollars in regulatory actions, and I believe it is more responsible to talk about the persistent existential crisis that Bitcoin faces.

If Bitcoin fails, then crypto is finished, so it will be interesting to see what the last big holders do with their coin.

Do they sell out the rest and crash the market? Or wait for a bull run that may never come?

The likely outcome is that the price of Bitcoin remains rangebound for the foreseeable future.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-02-13 13:00:552026-02-13 15:05:05Where Does the Utility Come From
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 13, 2026

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 13, 2026
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(FEBRUARY 11 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(MSFT), (SNOW), (JPM), (KO), (FXE), (FXA), (FXB), (FXC), (TSLA), (GLD), (SLV), (PANW), (PLTR), (LLY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-02-13 09:04:322026-02-13 15:27:39February 13, 2026
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 13, 2026 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Investing Illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/magician.png 330 412 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-02-13 09:00:082026-02-13 15:27:19February 13, 2026 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 12, 2026

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 12, 2026
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-02-12 09:04:012026-02-12 13:32:32February 12, 2026
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 11, 2026

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 11, 2026
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(SOME SAGE ADVICE ON ASSET ALLOCATION)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-02-11 09:04:052026-02-11 16:26:58February 11, 2026
MHFTR

February 11, 2026 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Fair value doesn’t mean you have to go down. It just means you have to be cautious,” said hedge fund legend David Tepper of Appaloosa Management.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Risk-Ahead-quote-of-the-day-e1536871799228.jpg 263 350 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2026-02-11 09:00:312026-02-11 16:26:37February 11, 2026 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 9, 2026

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 9, 2026
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ICEBERGS AHEAD)
($VIX), ($SPX), (AMZN), (KRE), (XLP), (XLI), (IAT), (TAN), (XLK), (HOOD), (MSTR), (COIN), (SLV), (LLY), (SMCI), (UUP), (MSFT), (MSTR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2026-02-09 09:04:152026-02-09 13:30:35February 9, 2026
MHFTF

February 9, 2026 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“Artificial Intelligence is potentially more dangerous than nukes,” said Andrew McAfee of the MIT Center for Digital Business.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct29-QOTD.png 295 522 MHFTF https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTF2026-02-09 09:00:012026-02-09 13:30:18February 9, 2026 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Another Win for Bitcoin

Bitcoin Letter

Bitcoin has periodically been pulled into geopolitical spotlights, and few moments generated as much reaction as comments made by Pavel Zavalny, chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Energy, suggesting that Russia was open to accepting Bitcoin (BTC) for oil and gas payments.

At the time, the statement landed like a bombshell for the “digital gold” narrative. Bitcoin had spent much of its early life as a financial outcast, shunned by governments and institutions alike. Now, suddenly, it was being mentioned in the same sentence as global energy trade and the world’s largest commodity exporter.

The symbolism was powerful. Russia, increasingly isolated in traditional financial channels, was exploring alternative settlement mechanisms. Bitcoin appeared, at least rhetorically, as one of several tools being discussed to navigate a fractured geopolitical landscape.

This mattered most in the context of the U.S. dollar and the euro, which had long dominated energy settlement with Russia. European buyers historically paid for Russian oil and gas almost exclusively in those currencies. That framework began to fracture once Western governments imposed sweeping financial sanctions on Moscow.

The freezing of Russian foreign reserves under U.S. President Joe Biden accelerated a reassessment among non-aligned and rival states about reliance on Western reserve currencies. Russia’s response was not limited to crypto. It demanded ruble payments from certain counterparties, expanded trade invoicing in non-Western currencies, and explored bilateral settlement arrangements with partners outside the U.S.-EU axis.

With hindsight, however, the idea that Bitcoin would become a primary settlement currency for Russian oil has not materialized. Energy trade at scale continues to rely on state-backed currencies, clearing arrangements, and intermediaries capable of handling massive volumes, compliance obligations, and price hedging. Bitcoin’s role has remained peripheral rather than structural.

That distinction matters when evaluating claims that this moment marked a permanent turning point for the dollar. While dollar dominance has undeniably been questioned and diversified against, it has not been displaced. China and Russia have expanded non-dollar trade, but global energy markets continue to clear overwhelmingly in traditional currencies.

Political fragmentation within Europe added further complexity. Leaders such as Viktor Orbán resisted full energy disengagement, arguing domestic economic stability took precedence. This underlined that sanctions, while impactful, were neither airtight nor universally enforced.

Crypto did play a role at the margins. Digital assets were used for cross-border transfers, capital mobility, and limited trade settlement where counterparties were willing to assume volatility and regulatory risk. But this fell short of the sweeping sanction bypass sometimes implied. Existing EU and U.S. sanctions frameworks explicitly extend to crypto, and large-scale energy buyers remain subject to compliance, custody, and reporting constraints.

The idea that simply holding Bitcoin balances indefinitely could nullify sanctions also proved impractical. State-level trade requires convertibility, accounting clarity, and fiscal predictability. Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory exposure limit its usefulness as a sovereign settlement base, even for countries seeking alternatives to Western finance.

Russia’s broader economic resilience during the early sanction period owed more to elevated commodity prices, capital controls, redirected exports, and fiscal intervention than to cryptocurrency adoption. The ruble’s recovery reflected administrative measures and trade flows rather than market-driven confidence.

That said, the episode was not meaningless for Bitcoin. It reinforced a core narrative: Bitcoin exists outside the control of any single state and is considered, at least conceptually, when traditional systems become politically constrained. For crypto advocates, that alone represented validation of its censorship-resistant design.

Still, the core thesis that Russia’s energy trade would migrate meaningfully to Bitcoin, triggering a new global monetary order, has not held up. Bitcoin’s role has remained symbolic and tactical, not foundational. Energy markets continue to operate on scale, liquidity, and stability that decentralized assets have yet to provide.

The legacy of this moment is therefore more modest but still instructive. It demonstrated how geopolitical stress tests existing financial infrastructure and pushes states to explore alternatives. Bitcoin emerged as part of that conversation, not as a replacement for it.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/bitcoin-in-russian-map.png 448 816 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-02-06 13:06:102026-02-20 12:46:22Another Win for Bitcoin
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