Ad Marketing Craters

This could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the consumer falling off a cliff.

There have been soft signals showing that credit card debt is piling up, but the truth is that Americans are spending more money on things they need and not on luxuries.

Snap (SNAP) recording a disastrous earnings report is showing us rapidly slowing growth and digital ad spend is usually first to go in the broader economy.

This leading indicator is essential to understanding the economy because companies don’t and won’t advertise when they understand the incremental marketing spend won’t result in meaningful sales.

Companies are just losing money at that point.

What happens is just a complete freeze of ad spend only to hibernate until the next cycle picks up again and demand returns.

The same dynamics apply to the other digital ad players like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Twitter (TWTR) which is why we are seeing 10% selloffs in Google.

The benefit to being such a big and strong company is that Google sells off by 10% while Snap drops by 45%.

Not exactly fair but long-term holders won’t dump Google right away unless there are real structural problems.

To break it down even further, the recession is quickly approaching and the economy is now going into reverse.

Next will be job layoffs and laid-off workers won’t buy much if marketed to.

Snaps’ macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated since its last earnings update just a month ago.

Digital ad spend goes quicker than local TV and radio following shortly after.

National TV was much later, and ad agency spend was also later than cycle media buying.

Roku and FuboTV will be hardest hit initially. The length and depth of the recessionary slowdown will determine whether or not pain makes its way to the longer cycle areas of the ad market.

In its first-quarter earnings disclosure in April, Snapchat’s daily active users hit 332 million, an increase from 319 million at the end of 2021.

Snap accounts for only a small low-single digit percentage of total digital advertising, but the macro factors cited should be relevant for all companies.

I believe the read-through is most negative for Twitter, which is 75% dependent on brand ad revenue and has 15-20% exposure to Europe.

Facebook also has significant European exposure (25% of its ad revenue), though its brand advertising exposure is likely well under 25%.

The Nasdaq continues to be a sell the rally type of market because there are no dip buyers.

For years, the dip buyers would save the Nasdaq.

Not only that, but the widespread destruction of tech has also forced many big whales to sit on the sidelines.

Why buy now when the risk reward isn’t favorable?

So now we are headed to a recession and traders are waiting for the recessionary data to flow to confirm these Snap earnings.

If this occurs, don’t be surprised to see a negative feedback loop that triggers algorithms to sell.

The Fed still hasn’t nearly been aggressive enough as well and is selling this false belief that there won’t be a recession and the consumer is strong.

That is yet to be priced into technology shares.

The upcoming data will reflect that the opposite is happening which means the buyer strike continues.

Avoid the dip and sell the rip.