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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Take a Walk on the Wild Side with Gene Editing

Biotech Letter

No other industry has inspired fear as much as the biotech world, and no other sector of the biotech industry has garnered such mixed reactions as the gene-editing group.

At the moment, the public has been grossly undervaluing the three major companies that actually hold the power to control the foundational patents for CRISPR-CAS9 — the gene-editing technique with the greatest potential to dominate the biotech industry. These overlooked Big 3 companies are Editas (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

There are distinct differences between these three pioneering biotech firms. With a market value of $2.7 billion, Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) is the first company to venture into clinical trials, attracting Vertex Therapeutics (VRTX) as one of its major investors. Editas, which has a market cap of $1.3 billion, is a close second to Crispr Therapeutics in terms of clinical trials. Despite the issues plaguing its executive department lately, the company is anticipated to eventually land a big partner to help fund its research as well.

Then there's Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA). The company, which has a market cap of $850 million, is considered the laggard in the CRISPR gene-editing world. What further fuels the ambivalence of investors is the expectation that clinical trials for its lone drug candidate won't be ready until 2020 or even 2021. The lack of flashy updates from Intellia Therapeutics has several investors wondering if this low market cap company is actually a good buy.

In its third-quarter earnings report though, Intellia Therapeutics posted revenues worth $10.62 million — a jump from the $7.41 million recorded during the same period in 2018. Aside from that, the company managed to attract Novartis AG (NOVN) as one of its major investors. Recently, the company also established a partnership with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), which is viewed as a promising step towards bolstering Intellia Therapeutics’ growth.

Based on their recent updates, Regeneron and Intellia Therapeutics are working on NTLA-2001. This is a treatment for a rare disease called transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR), also known as a protein misfolding disorder which causes an abnormal protein buildup in the body's organs and tissues.

While this has yet to reach human trials, the preclinical studies involving non-human primates showed an over 95% reduction of the protein in the patient's liver. Since this disease requires chronic dosing throughout the lifetime of the patient, the success of NTLA-2001 has an incredible disruptive potential for one-shot treatments of ATTR. Apart from that, this treatment will position Intellia Therapeutics as the sole dominating force in this gene-silencing sector.

As things stand today, Intellia Therapeutics may seem as if it has been straggling behind Crispr Therapeutics and Editas. However, the promising plans of the company may prove this statement false. While its move to take its time before pulling the trigger on NTLA-2001 may be frustrating for investors eager to see the results, the recent developments show that this was a necessary precautionary measure to protect the company’s potentially revolutionary delivery system. Despite the delay, this move could translate to dividends across all the drugs and treatments in Intellia Therapeutics’ pipeline in the next years.

Despite their status of being on the verge of discovering treatments for the incurable diseases, it’s baffling to watch how investors continue to sidestep these Big 3 companies, which have a measly $5 billion valuation among all three of them.

Gradually though, a number of forward-thinking investors are starting to shift out of growth names and turn into more defensive investment strategies. With this switch in style slowly making its way to the public, more and more biotech stocks are revealed to be extremely undervalued — and it’s only a matter of time before the likes of Crispr, Editas, and Intellia become a household name among investors.

While the biotech industry can be a scary place to invest in, the key to succeeding in this sector is understanding the market. It’s also advisable to diversify your portfolio. However, bear in mind that not all portfolios chock full of trials in their pipeline guarantee success. At times, a company only needs one or two promising treatments that can eventually serve as the stepping stone to 30 or more moneymakers.

Buy Intellia Therapeutics on dips, as it is the cheapest of the lot.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/intellia.png 416 416 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-19 05:00:262019-11-19 05:01:08Take a Walk on the Wild Side with Gene Editing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 14, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

JUMP ON THE ASTRAZENECA BANDWAGON
(AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-14 10:02:452019-11-14 10:25:49November 14, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Jump on the AstraZeneca Bandwagon

Biotech Letter

AstraZeneca plc (AZN) has shown a dramatic turnaround over the past three years, crushing its close competitors in the big biopharma landscape. Posting growth for the fifth straight quarter for both profit and sales, the stock has gained more than 10% in the run-up to its latest earnings report.

This pushed the company’s total stock market gains for 2019 to a stellar 33.4%. From a forward-looking price-to-earnings perspective though, investors must remain cautious as the stock also now sports a high valuation.

One of the reasons for the stock’s soaring performance this year is the promising cancer drug lineup, which is the result of AstraZeneca’s risky move to splurge on the development of these products way back in 2014.

Now, although no hard data has been disclosed to the public to date, AstraZeneca’s oncology lineup has been pegged to give Merck & Co.’s (MRK) Keytruda and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s (BMY) Opdivo a run for their money in the lucrative lung cancer drug market.

AstraZeneca is anticipated to release survival data by 2020, with its acquired company Pearl Therapeutics taking charge of testing the effectiveness of Imfinzi to treat non-small cell lung cancer. The robust competition presented by both Bristol’s Opdivo and AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi is projected to carve out $2.5 billion from the sales of Merck’s cash cow Keytruda from 2021 to 2028. 

Aside from Imfinzi, AstraZeneca has also raked in increasing revenue from another NSLC drug Tagrisso and ovarian cancer medication Lynparza.

Sales of AstraZeneca’s cancer drugs jumped 48% to hit $2.3 billion in the third quarter of 2019. In the first half of the year, total revenue from the company’s oncology lineup alone soared 52% year over year.

AstraZeneca’s largest moneymaker at the moment, Tagrisso, contributed more than $1.4 billion in the first six months of the year, jumping by 86% compared to the same period in 2018. The surge brought about by this strong cancer drug lineup resulted in a 16% rise in the company’s earnings in the third quarter, hitting $6.1 billion.

While these results are impressive, AstraZeneca’s cancer drug sales have yet to reach their peak. As impressive as Tagrisso has been in the first half of 2019, the other two cancer drugs of the company are actually outperforming this product.

One is Imfinzi, which saw its sales skyrocket by 248% during the same period, raking in $633 million. Meanwhile, Lynparza sales practically doubled to reach $520 million.

While its US sales remain competitive with the company achieving 17% revenue growth, AstraZeneca’s initiatives to expand to the Chinese market have also started to pay off. In fact, earnings from this East Asian country account for almost a fifth of the company’s revenue.

Sales in China continued its positive streak, rising 40% to reach $1.28 billion. To sustain this momentum and strengthen its stronghold in the market, the company recently announced its move to invest $1 billion to develop healthcare startups in the Middle Kingdom. This makes AstraZeneca the latest biopharma behemoth to place a bet on the second-biggest pharmaceuticals market in the world.

With all these in mind, it’s almost impossible to handicap the long-term outlook for AstraZeneca. The company currently has an impressive nine-drug lineup all set to turn into blockbusters this year.

Although the loss of patent exclusivity for cardiovascular disease moneymaker Crestor definitely affected the company, its move to transform its cancer drugs into core growth drivers has been quite successful thus far.

Bolstering its pillars of growth is AstraZeneca’s focus on building on its high-value lung cancer lineup particularly on Imfinzi and Tagrisso. Its emerging cardiovascular drug line has also been garnering attention, making heart medication Brilinta and diabetes treatment Farxiga the next blockbusters for the company.

On top of these, AstraZeneca has been actively developing potent combinations involving mantle cell lymphoma treatment Calquence and Lynparza. Needless to say, the company’s clinical pipeline has presented itself as one of the most promising in the biotech world today.

From where things stand at the moment, AstraZeneca appears to be vindicated in fighting for its standalone strategy and pushing back from the $118 billion hostile takeover attempt of Pfizer in 2014.

In increasing its footprint in emerging markets, AstraZeneca has transformed itself into a biotech company with the potential to dominate the industry in the years to come.

Buy AstraZeneca with both hands on the next dip.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AZN.png 329 662 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-14 10:00:432019-11-14 10:18:20Jump on the AstraZeneca Bandwagon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter
November 12, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MERCK SCORES BIG ON MELANOMA)
(MRK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 06:02:342019-11-12 06:47:13November 12, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Merck Scores Big on Melanoma

Biotech Letter

I am usually highly averse to buying shares at new all-time highs. The risk/reward is usually terrible.

However, I am going to have to make an exception in the case of Merck (MRK). I wait for a substantial dip to buy into which could last for a lifetime.

Merck shares have just broken out from their 17-year resistance level, which was set in stone in the low to mid-$60s for yonks following recent upbeat earnings estimates. The improvement in its performance has been mostly fueled by the expansion of its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda.

With the recent success of drug’s campaign to be used in earlier melanoma treatment and even for HIV patients, it looks like Merck investors' fears of reduced exclusivity rights and price controls are all behind them now. Apart from these, Merck has managed to dodge the China trade war since life-saving medications are not likely to be included on Trump’s tariff list.

More power to Keytruda

Merck investors have constantly voiced out concerns over the company’s heavy reliance on Keytruda. However, it appears that there will be no change in the status quo anytime soon.

Earlier this year, Merck received FDA approval to offer Keytruda to metastatic small cell lung cancer patients. This translates to an expanded market for the already successful blockbuster drug and opens up a new avenue for the company to explore.

Prior to this, Merck announced its plan to acquire clinical-stage biotech company Peloton Therapeutics for $1.05 billion. This deal provides Merck with access to Peloton’s work on kidney cancer drugs and its marquee product, renal cell carcinoma treatment PT2977. This strategy, which was disclosed just days before Peloton’s scheduled IPO, exemplifies Merck’s aggressive pursuit of novel and innovative therapeutic candidates.

Apart from this, Merck has also announced its partnership with biotech firm Skyhawk Therapeutics. This deal, in which Skyhawk receives up to $600 million in upfront and potential milestone payments, grants Merck with the exclusive intellectual property rights for all their neurological disease and cancer studies.

 Both acquisitions not only bolster Merck’s already promising oncology pipeline thanks to Keytruda’s success but also diversifies the company’s portfolio to cover other diseases.  

 Keytruda’s massive potential in China

While it has been widely considered that Keytruda lies at the heart of Merck’s success, it appears that the blockbuster drug has yet to reach the peak of its earnings potential. As impressive as it is at the moment, the current popularity of Keytruda could very well double or even triple in the future thanks to Merck’s efforts to tap into China’s cancer market. Needless to say, the success of this endeavor could easily translate into billions of additional sales. 

Given the recent approval of Keytruda to tackle an expanded market, its move to cater to the Chinese population denotes significant revenue growth compared to how much they can earn from the US. 

 Keytruda is anticipated to earn roughly $5 billion in sales from the American market for its lung cancer indication alone. However, China’s much larger population, as well as the greater prevalence of the disease in that region, mean that Merck’s earnings for this drug could be 3.5 times higher than in the US. This estimate doesn’t even include other types of cancer prevalent in the Asian country like liver, breast, and gastric. 

 What to expect

 Given all the moves made by Merck recently and the way its pipeline is shaping up courtesy of its acquisitions, it looks like the company is a prime candidate to rise in the near-term. In fact, Merck is projected to come up with better numbers in the next quarterly earnings report.

Riding the tailwinds of Keytruda’s success, Merck stock is projected to achieve year-over-year growth of 7.55%. Meanwhile, its earnings per share is estimated to hit $1.14. With the company shares rapidly approaching its average 12-month price target of $90.66, Merck is poised to continuously have a bullish outlook this year. 

Buy (MRK) on this dip. It’s going to new all-time highs.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/mrk.png 339 645 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-12 06:00:312019-11-12 06:53:33Merck Scores Big on Melanoma
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 7, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BUY NOVARTIS ON THE DATA SCANDAL DIP),
(NVS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-07 04:02:562019-11-06 16:15:09November 7, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Buy Novartis on the Data Scandal Dip

Biotech Letter

Amid the public outcry over how Novartis A.G. (NVS) dealt with the data manipulation issue involving its $2.1 million gene therapy Zolgensma, the stock has been doing quite fine. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has reassured everyone that the drug is still a safe choice for spinal muscular atrophy.

Although the agency threatened to impose “civil or criminal penalties,” it also reiterated that the FDA “remains confident that Zolgensma should remain on the market.” This is probably because the data manipulation affected only a minimal part of the information submitted for Zolgensma’s approval. It had no connection at all to more pressing matters like human safety and efficacy tests.

Rather, it pertains to the mouse studies performed during the early stages of drug testing. The FDA explained that Novartis’ data “continues to provide compelling evidence supporting an overall favorable benefit-risk profile” for the drug.

Nonetheless, Novartis didn’t exactly go away scot-free as an ex-FDA commissioner said that “the key issue of trust in the face of overwhelming complexity is driving the stern warning and possible consequences.”

In terms of the effects of the issue on Zolgensma’s sales, it’s also unlikely that it will greatly affect Novartis as a whole. The treatment is currently estimated to bring $200 million in profits this quarter and possibly $300 million in the succeeding period. Assuming that the FDA decides to impose a more restrictive punishment, Zolgensma’s sales contribute a tiny drop in the bucket of the company’s $11.7 billion estimated quarterly earnings.

This is why despite all the hullabaloo, people who have no idea about the issue wouldn’t even catch a whiff of it from looking at the ticker. Reviewing Novartis’ performance during the height of the issue, its shares went down only 0.8% amid a general Biotech and Life Sciences market slowdown.

So, why isn’t Novartis getting penalized for this data manipulation scandal? Because at the moment, the issue -- no matter how humiliating -- seems highly unlikely to affect the stock’s bottom line.

In the second quarter of 2019, Novartis beat earnings and sales estimates with the company even raising its guidance for this year. It recorded core earnings of $1.34 per share, up from the $1.18 reported in 2018. The company’s profits increased to hit $11.8 billion as well. Compared to the rest of the industry, which suffered a 1.1% decline, Novartis recorded a 5.2% gain so far in 2019.

Now, let’s take a look at the performance so far of its two major growth drivers: Innovative Medicines (pharmaceuticals) and Sandoz (generics).

The pharma segment grew by 10% this year and reported sales worth $9.3 billion, indicating a 9% increase year over year. Among the notable performers in this division is psoriasis treatment Cosentyx, which has been gaining traction especially in the United States as shown by the 25% increase in its sales to hit $858 million.

A global uptake, particularly in the hospital and ambulatory demand for chronic heart failure medication Entresto, also boosted its sales by 81% to rake in $421 million.

Novartis’ oncology unit also showed an increase of 9% courtesy of acute lymphoblastic leukemia drug Kymriah, severe aplastic anemia medication Promacta, and breast cancer treatment Kisqali.

Even its Lutathera, the radioactive targeted therapy for neuroendocrine tumor that was a recent addition from the acquisition of Advanced Accelerator Applications (AAA), contributed to this solid performance. AAA sales reached $171 million with $109 million coming from Lutathera profits alone. Meanwhile, Kisqali’s sales grew 94% and Promacta profits grew 23%.

As for the Sandoz segment, the division recorded $4.8 billion in sales, up by 1%. Its biopharmaceuticals profits increased 14% mainly thanks to the notable double-digit growth of cancer and rheumatoid arthritis treatment Rixathon (a biosimilar of Roche Holding AG’s (RHHBY) Rituxan), plaque psoriasis medication Erelzi (a biosimilar of Amgen’s (AMGN) Enbrel), and rheumatoid arthritis drug Hyrimoz (a biosimilar of AbbVie’s Humira).    

The strong performance during the second quarter pushed Novartis to boost its sales and earnings forecasts for 2019 to reflect mid-to-high single-digit increase. The new wave of drug approvals the company has gained provided added confidence to its performance in subsequent months.

Aside from expanding its rare genetic disorder portfolio with Zolgensma and oncology division with advanced breast cancer drug Piqray, Novartis is also looking to bring more depth to its ophthalmic pharmaceutical department with the acquisition of dry eye treatment Xiidra.

Given its current performance and the promising drug pipeline it has for 2019, Novartis is anticipated to become one of the top-performing biopharmas in the market today.

Buy (NVS) on the next dip.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/novartis.png 335 672 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-07 04:00:532019-11-06 16:15:30Buy Novartis on the Data Scandal Dip
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 5, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
November 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DIALING FOR DOLLARS WITH TELEHEALTH),
(TDOC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-05 08:02:242019-11-05 08:13:47November 5, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Dialing for Dollars with Telehealth

Biotech Letter

Healthcare consumers are experiencing a crisis. Over the past years, America has transformed into a country with the most expensive costs of care in the world with the American Medical Association reporting that the average spending of one person reaches $11,000 annually.

While this situation obviously burdens the consumers, looking at it from an investment perspective reveals just how much health insurers could stand to profit from it.

For instance, Anthem (ANTM) stock actually rose over 100% in the past three years, thanks to moderate revenue gains and huge bottom line profits. As enticing as that sounds, there are still healthcare companies out there aiming to keep the costs reasonable and the service convenient. One of them is Teladoc Health (TDOC).

Teladoc is a telehealth company that offers health services and medical advice to patients over the phone or via video conference calls. Although this is by no means a replacement of the traditional visits with your healthcare providers, the technology expands the reach of specialists especially when it comes to consultation services. It also provides a convenient platform for patients who will no longer need to actually make a trip to their doctors.

Most importantly, telehealth allows care providers to offer their services at lower prices. So far, spending on telehealth services is estimated to reach roughly $30 billion -- a staggering decrease from the multi-trillion-dollar amount Americans spend on healthcare services every year.

In the next five years or so though, the spending on telehealth services is anticipated to increase by approximately 20%. This could bring spending on this industry to a whopping $100 billion annually. Here is where Teladoc’s competitive advantage comes in.

At the moment, Teladoc is one of a handful of providers that actually has a global presence. The company is available in 130 countries and accessible in 30 languages. With such a broad market, Teladoc revenues showed an 89% increase year over year in 2017 and 79% in 2018. Meanwhile, the first half of 2019 saw the company’s profits hit a 40% increase year over year, with total patient visits rising 73% to reach 1.97 million.

Teladoc has also invested in promising acquisitions. Its $440 million merger with competitor Best Doctors back in 2017 has proved to be a great way to expand quickly and cover more ground.

For the third quarter of 2019, Teladoc once again delivered good results. The company’s revenues increased by 24% to reach $138 million, which surpassed Wall Street’s estimate of $136.5 million. Paid memberships in the United States grew by 55%, which now puts the total at 35 million members.

For its fourth-quarter earnings report, the company is expected to keep the momentum and rake in roughly $149 million to $153 million in profits, with a 2019 full-year revenue to be somewhere between $546 million and $550 million.

Despite the promising performance of Teladoc so far, there are still risks to consider before buying the stock. One of the major concerns is competition. Although Teladoc retains the title of being the leader in the telehealth services industry today, competitors American Well, Grand Rounds, and MDLive are gaining traction as well. Nonetheless, name recognition alone sets Teladoc apart from its rivals. However, the entrance of Amazon via its Amazon Care initiative in September is considered a major threat to the company.

All in all, Teladoc stock remains attractive. As with practically everything in investing, the key is to exercise due diligence and diversifying your portfolio. Teladoc is not a perfect company, but its sheer presence is already disrupting the healthcare industry. This makes the stock a good addition to a diversified portfolio, and the fact that you could be one of the pioneering investors makes it all the more exciting to own.

BUY (TDOC) on the next dip.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/tdoc.png 239 899 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-05 08:00:422019-11-05 08:13:32Dialing for Dollars with Telehealth
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 31, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 31, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ONE PLUS ONE EQUALS THREE WITH THE PFIZER-MYLAN DEAL),
(PFE), (MYL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-10-31 10:02:442019-10-31 10:39:28October 31, 2019
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